Author Topic: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released  (Read 2864 times)

Metro Jacksonville

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2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« on: July 10, 2012, 03:00:42 AM »
2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released



The Census Bureau recently released their 2011 estimates for the country's largest cities. Despite having the largest land area in the continental United States, Jacksonville is on the verge of being surpassed in population by several of its peers.  Today, Metro Jacksonville shares the results for America's 100 largest cities to illustrate where Jacksonville's growth fits in with the rest of the country.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2012-jul-2011-census-estimates-for-largest-cities-released

I-10east

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #1 on: July 10, 2012, 05:31:58 AM »
IMO these stats aren't alarmingly concerning for Jax, it's not like a mass exodus of folks will plummet the numbers in the negatives by the next couple of years. It's hard to gauge a city's overall population growth just by one year, esp for the strong words like 'We're on the verge of being passed by our peers' a better time frame to analyze that would be a decade. What stuck on like a sore thumb with this data (even with these annual stats) are all of those people leaving Honolulu; What's going on over there in paradise for all of those people to flee Hawaii of all places? 

thelakelander

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #2 on: July 10, 2012, 06:40:14 AM »

2000: Jacksonville - 735,503
2010: Jacksonville - 821,784
2011: Jacksonville - 827,908

2000: Austin - 656,562
2010: Austin - 790,390
2011: Austin - 820,611

Despite having the largest land area in the top 20, Jax is one of the slower growing outside of long time struggling places like Detroit.  We'll get passed by Austin and perhaps Indianapolis over the next year if rates remain the same.  I'd be somewhat concerned.  We're blessed with too many natural assets, IMO. Given the land area, I don't think its too hard to make an assumption that we're still losing inner city population.  In a place like Miami or San Francisco, who outgrow a county-sized city numerically despite being less than 40 square miles total, things appear to be different.  As we continue to cut our services, such as library hours, it's something I'd keep my eyes on moving forward.

The Honolulu number does stick out.  I don't know if that is a statistical error or if something drastic is going on there.  Perhaps, someone in the know will elaborate on Honolulu's situation.
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jcjohnpaint

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #3 on: July 10, 2012, 06:54:32 AM »
We are likely to drop to about 18 in the next 5 years.  We are being beat by all our peer cities (with smaller city land mass).  Not good at all.  Unless folks around here want most services to be cut or pay more taxes, then things will have to turn around. 

KenFSU

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #4 on: July 10, 2012, 08:18:24 AM »
Honolulu is consolidated with the county (Honolulu County), like Jacksonville or Indianapolis, but it's urban area is considered a census-designated place. Not sure if that above number is accurate, but I do know that Honolulu County itself grew by over 1% in 2011, so if the people were flocking the urban CDP, I doubt they went too far.

fsujax

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #5 on: July 10, 2012, 08:30:38 AM »
As long as people in Duval keep fleeing to St Johns County and we continue to lag behind in developing more residential opportunities in Downtown, then we will continue to slow and we will get passed by cities like Austin.

I-10east

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #6 on: July 10, 2012, 08:32:22 AM »
You can play that 'smaller land mass' game all day; What city doesn't have a smaller land mass than Jax?  Juneau, AK. Just because a couple of cities outside of Jax are growing at a staggering unsustainable rate doesn't call for any concern for Jax IMO. Jax is still growing at a steady rate. Hell look at STL, they used to be like the fourth most populous US city back in the 1900's when they hosted the Olympics, it was really a premier city; Now they are losing people every time you turn around, but they don't have their heads in the dirt. Even the bustling tourist mecca Orlando has taken a lil' step back. Jax will be fine, esp when we get residents in the DT area; We don't have many residents DT like we should, and we still are growing at a steady rate. Sometimes we shouldn't worry about what the 'Joneses' are doing, and focus on what Jax should be doing, becuase not EVERYTHING that applies to them applies to us, like gambling, certain types of tourism, colleges, banking etc.     
« Last Edit: July 10, 2012, 08:39:56 AM by I-10east »

Tacachale

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #7 on: July 10, 2012, 08:45:49 AM »
I wonder what Jacksonville's urban area numbers would be. It's pretty clear that most of our suburban growth has been in the surrounding counties, especially northern St. Johns.
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Fallen Buckeye

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #8 on: July 10, 2012, 12:09:26 PM »
Are the rankings determined by % change? And personally I'm not into growth for growth's sake. My parents used to live in the Inland Empire area of California which was booming for a long time, but to me it was a vision of hell. lol. Terrible traffic. Long commutes. Endless miles of tract housing. Pollution. Population does not necessarily define the quality of a city. I wouldn't be worried unless I were a city like Detroit that is losing a great number of people.

duvaldude08

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #9 on: July 10, 2012, 12:17:38 PM »
IMO these stats aren't alarmingly concerning for Jax, it's not like a mass exodus of folks will plummet the numbers in the negatives by the next couple of years. It's hard to gauge a city's overall population growth just by one year, esp for the strong words like 'We're on the verge of being passed by our peers' a better time frame to analyze that would be a decade. What stuck on like a sore thumb with this data (even with these annual stats) are all of those people leaving Honolulu; What's going on over there in paradise for all of those people to flee Hawaii of all places?

I agree I-10. I really dont care for the year by year totals. Those can vary in most cities. People are shuffling in and out like crazy in within a years time. I like to look at the results over a 10 year period. IMo growth slowing for one year does not mean the sky is falling. Not in my eyes anyways.
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thelakelander

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #10 on: July 10, 2012, 01:22:12 PM »
Our core is a smaller Detroit and has been for years. It's just overlooked for obvious reasons. You guys can make up all the excuses you want but things aren't all peaches & cream here. My hope is that we don't wait till we experience negative overall growth to realize this and work to make the entire city a better place. 
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Seraphs

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Re: 2011 Census Estimates For Largest Cities Released
« Reply #11 on: July 16, 2012, 08:23:57 PM »
The only cities I see that will probably overtake us is Austin and Indy.  Maybe we'll get an enormous growth spurt.  Yeah Right!