Sawgrass Village in Ponte Vedra

[dougskiles]

There was an attempt several years ago to redevelop this property.  But it met with stiff opposition.

The FTU had a little story in April about an application to St Johns County about this latest project:

http://jacksonville.com/business/2011-04-02/story/redevelopment-application-filed-sawgrass-village-shopping-center

As did The Recorder:
http://www.pontevedrarecorder.com/119418839.html

That last one has an image of the conceptual site plan:

[halimeade]

Wow, thanks for this article. My grandmother used to live in Sawgrass, the gated community behind all this, and I all but grew up in that plaza. I know its gotten kind of dated, but I will still be very sad to see it all go, especially the Publix. Lots of good memories. That said, my grandma moved out of Sawgrass because she hated how old (and old money) the community is, and she hated how dull living there was, said it made her feel ancient. So she lives in Palm Coast now.

[cline]

That is a weak site plan.  Pretty interesting that the community nixed the original site plan that would have turned it into a mixed use development. 

[thelakelander]

Poor plan indeed. It appears the community prefers a strip mall instead of something that could really become an attractive anchor along A1A.

[fsujax]

Yep. The old folks out there are getting their way.

[simms3]

Wow. You build a whole slew of multi-milion dollar buildings and then 25-30 years later you tear them down and start all over.  How throw away can our society get.

Publix does this quite often yet touts itself as being green (or GreenWise using their term).  Its really a joke.

There are any number of reasons why stores are rebuilt. Sometimes it is to add square footage. Alot of the older stores don't have pharmacies, so they need to extra space. 

It can also be for structural reasons. The Publix in Sawgrass is one of the oldest ones in the area and experiences severe flooding problems.

And when you see a store built to replace an existing structure like they did in Atlantic Beach, it is because they own the land on the new store where as they were leasing the land in the old store.

A few things to note:

1) Sawgrass Village is managed and will be redeveloped by Ben Carter Properties, which profits from the operation through a management fee (could potentially be a JV with a minority interest, but does not appear so).  The owner is Cornerstone RE Advisors, which is the RE Investment and Asset Management arm of Mass Mutual.

2) Publix could be on a ground lease, but considering the whole center is proposed to be redeveloped, that does not appear to be the case.  Typically, a center that is developed all at once where the anchor does not own the land it sits on may opt for a ground lease, which may be for 50-75 years.  Outparcels will do this, too.  What is often a scenario is that the anchor will pay a certain price for 15 years, and then see 10% bumps every 5 years thereafter, and the anchor may still pay certain large-item recoverable expenses related to the overall center.  Often there is a stipulation giving the anchor the option to own the land outright after the lease.  Publix is not usually this kind of anchor (grocery anchors are usually owned along with the center and are not on ground leases).  These anchors are usually your Targets, Walmarts, or other large discounters.

3) Publix has been ramping up its acquisitions as of late, but you don't often see a Publix not included with the overall shopping center.  Meaning, when Publix buys real estate (and it always has the right of first refusal when a center they anchor trades), it will buy the whole entire center for clear reasons.  Usually Publix only wants to own really high performing centers.  Its requirements look like that of a Mass Mutual/Life company in that it wants core only with long-term leases and high tenant sales and a certain percentage of revenue from national/credit tenants (and in certain markets, of course).  In fact, look for 2 centers in Florida to revert to Publix very soon (and don't ask me which ones...they aren't in NE FL).


A few items on Ben Carter Properties:

The current president is from Jacksonville, but the Jacksonville ties are really to the Carter family, which starting with Frank Carter way back when has been vacationing here for a while.

Ben Carter Properties, as I'm sure we all know, developed the SJTC, which it has a 50.0% ownership stake in along with Simon, which owns the other 50%.  It also developed the Markets at Town Center.

Ben Carter Properties is one the legacies of Frank Carter, the other being Carter USA, a full service real estate firm based in Atlanta.  Carter USA is a major brokerage house, investor, advisor, manager, and developer.  It is larger than Ben Carter Properties, but both have good reputations.


4thly, a Grocery Trend:

Publix is about the smallest top-tier grocer in the country as far as store size goes (it excels in every other measure).  It's average store size has been creeping up from about 35,000 SF to maybe 45,000 SF over the last 15 years, but many investors see its store size as a problem for sales.  Kroger has about a 60,000 SF average size and HEB about a 70,000 SF size.  SuperValu and Giant Eagle and others are even more massive.  The grocery industry is the most competitive retail industry there is and there is definitely a great chance that Publix needs to increase its Sawgrass store size to remain competitive.  I know that Winn Dixie is its only real competitor in NE FL and I don't know anything about Winn Dixie as it is not considered a top-tier grocer, but Publixes in highly competitive major markets with 2-3 top-tier chains have a bigger challenge keeping up and constantly need to rebrand and reposition to fight for maybe a percent increase in market share.

[thelakelander]

I used to layout out Publix anchored shopping centers at a previous job.  Publix has a 28k sf urban store model that's pretty popular for tight sites in South and Central Florida, although the Riverside store is that size as well.  However, typical suburban Publix models are between 45k and 54k sf.  I assume Publix may have more urban store locations than some of the chains mentioned above?

[simms3]

The average size of a Publix in GA is 47,334 SF (and 151 of GA's 182 Publixes are in the Atlanta CSA).  There are only 7 Publixes under 30,000 SF, and almost all are in the Perimeter of Atlanta.  2 of them are built in the last decade.

Pre-1970 size = 39,928 SF (6 centers)
1970s size = 39,344 SF (7 centers)
1980s size = 45,339 SF (13 centers)
1990s size = 51,062 SF (too many centers to count)
2000s size = 45,187 SF (also too many centers to count, but fewer than in the 1990s)

Keep in mind many of the 1960s, 70s, and 80s stores have expanded and remodeled since that time, skewing their numbers (i.e. they were probably built smaller than their configuration noted now).

GA and FL Publixes are exactly the same.


The average Kroger size in GA is 59,032 SF.  There are 163 Krogers in the state, and 129 of them are in the Atlanta CSA.  There is only 1 store under 40,000 SF in the state (though my data is missing a chunk of information for Krogers...had all the data for Publix).

Pre-1970s size = 56,683 SF (I only had size data for 2 centers and only 3 centers total that old)
1970s size = 60,575 SF (14 centers, not all centers had size data)
1980s size = 53,451 SF (lots of centers, missing a good bit of data, though)
1990s size = 60,723 SF (lots of centers, missing a good bit of data, though)
2000s size = 61,513 SF (lots of centers, missing a good bit of data, though)

Average age for Publix = 15 years
Average age for Kroger = 19 years

Largest Kroger = 92,803 SF (with 40 over 60,000 SF, largest built this year, 60,000 SF + built since 80s)
Largest Publix = 65,495 SF (with 5 over 60,000 SF, all built in the late 90s and 2000s in suburban areas)

Largest Publix in the urban core is 40,000 SF in Atlantic Station, built 2004-2005.
Urban Krogers are fewer and farther between than urban Publixes (still 2 in Midtown alone), but they range from 41,000 SF to 56,000 SF.

The only other grocery stores that matter for institutional capital are Whole Foods and Fresh Market.  Perhaps a Trader Joes in a wealthy infill neighborhood.  There are 9 Whole Foods in Atlanta and 11 Fresh Markets.  There are 7 TJ's in GA, 6 in Atlanta, mainly in the core and inner suburbs, and 1 in Athens.  Aldi's is also really big here, but is nowhere near institutional grade.  I won't even get into stats for these grocers.

[finehoe]

I would love it if a TJ's opened here.

[rjp2008]

I dont understand why local residents would NOT want a mixed-use town center type area with associated apartments or condos added. It would certainly be a positive economic impact to the area.

[copperfiend]

I talked to somebody familiar with the Publix portion of this project and found out a few things.

The floor plan for the new Publix will be the same as the plan used at the Nocatee Publix.

The current store is not in compliance with the ADA. The only break room is on the second floor and only can be reached by stairs. So they would have been required to add an elevator if they made any renovations to this area.

The current building has an issue with flooding when anything more than a drizzle occurs.

In addition to increased sq footage and adding a pharmacy, these were drivers in constructing a new building.

[floridaal]

Any news in regards to this project?