The Jaxson

Community => News => Topic started by: BridgeTroll on January 14, 2022, 12:53:36 PM

Title: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 14, 2022, 12:53:36 PM
The answer is yes... but of course they have already invaded and annexed a large portion of the country a couple years ago.
Negotiations seem to have failed this week and the real question is when?  I personally believe it will be soon and then the next question will be ... What will be the US, Europe, and NATOs response.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/14/politics/us-intelligence-russia-false-flag/index.html

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/14/a-week-of-russia-west-diplomacy-ends-in-deadlock-a76041

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/14/will-nato-engage-with-russias-security-demands
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 15, 2022, 10:51:44 AM
Shortly after negotiations ended...

https://cepa.org/be-afraid-has-russias-attack-on-ukraine-begun/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 16, 2022, 08:01:12 AM
NATO Insiders Fear Attack on Multiple Fronts

Hopes are waning within NATO that Russian President Vladimir Putin can be stopped from invading Ukraine. At the military alliance’s headquarters in Brussels, officials are increasingly alarmed by even worse scenarios.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-ukraine-crisis-nato-insiders-fear-attack-on-multiple-fronts-a-6c6865ba-a6be-4f7c-a7e8-8a7611a2cdaa
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on January 17, 2022, 11:59:27 AM
If he does, he will strengthen NATO's position with the few remaining non members, and look like a fool as he will gain nothing but a bunch of dead soldiers and a weaker economy.....

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/opinions/putin-russia-us-nato-miscalculation-ghitis/index.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 17, 2022, 12:56:31 PM
Interesting take… the opposite also may be true. Why join a toothless organization that cannot or will not defend someone who wants to join…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on January 17, 2022, 01:15:26 PM
BT, one question. Show me how Ukraine is threatening Russia, please?    As the article states, they might be threatening Putin, but they are no threat to Russia.  Are they massing troops on the border to invade Russia?

Putin is not fooling anyone.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 17, 2022, 02:28:08 PM
They aren't threatening Russia... but... Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union and has made no secret of it's desire to join NATO.  Russia has historically been paranoid about her western flank and Putin is an old school soviet autocrat.  Russia wants iron clad assurance that Ukraine will not or cannot join NATO.  NATO  will not and cannot give such assurance under threat of invasion among other things.

Complicating things from a US perspective is that China and Taiwan are watching closely...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 17, 2022, 07:24:02 PM
^ Some say Putin is actually trying to create a distraction to take the Russian people's attention away from all the things wrong in their country such as a lousy quality of life under Putin's leadership.  Supposedly, Putin, in support of this, has cranked up his propaganda machine to full speed telling Russians that Ukraine is a threat to Russia.

Putin knows Ukraine is no threat to Russia, It's the other way around. And, he may not like NATO at his doorstep, but NATO clearly has no intention or reason to "invade" Russia so Putin is just trumping up that issue.  NATO might even be willing to agree to hold back on stationing certain military assets in Ukraine as long as Russia was behaving, just to throw in a bone.

Some pundits believe Putin should be more worried about the rumblings in Kazakhstan, which, to date has had pro-Putin puppets leading the country.  The unrest there could be taken as a exemplar for the Russian people which is Putin's ultimate concern.

This is all about Putin maintaining his hold on power while overseeing a corrupt and murderous bureaucracy that he is plundering for his own financial gain.  It is amazing that for over 100 years, an otherwise very intelligent people, have tolerated so many terrible leaders that have turned around and abused them.  Unfortunately, there are some today in this country who feel we might be facing a similar fate going forward.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 17, 2022, 08:54:00 PM
Autocrats creating enemies to distract populations is nothing new and the Russians have been doing it for hundreds of years. It may be a distraction but he has already invaded and annexed portions of Ukraine a couple years ago... I think he wants more and knows NATO will do nothing to stop him.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 18, 2022, 08:00:42 AM
At least some Europeans are stepping up...

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60033012
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 18, 2022, 12:55:35 PM
https://dnyuz.com/2022/01/17/russia-thins-out-its-embassy-in-ukraine-a-possible-clue-to-putins-next-move/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 18, 2022, 10:08:39 PM
If Ukraine has any decent military assets, even in a losing effort, they could extract a very heavy toll on Russia.  I note that Ukraine also has a population of about 43,000,000.  Compare this to Afghanistan that is about 39,000,000.  Russia never could tame the latter so I would imagine they could face decades of Western supported urban combat and militant attacks both in Ukraine and in Russia if they successfully invade.  I would be surprised if 100,000 Russian troops less their battle losses would be able to sustain a worry-free occupation.  Another war of wills like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.

Between heavy losses and ongoing attacks, along with global sanctions, I wonder if even Putin could survive the resulting turmoil within Russia. 

Putin's attempt to rebuild the USSR reflects a failure to learn lessons of the past.  He might get some of it done but it won't hold together forever.

Doesn't mean Putin doesn't take a plunge if his ego and power hungry desires block his common sense.  So far, I suppose, that has been how he operates, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Florida Power And Light on January 20, 2022, 07:35:47 PM
So, what do Ukrainian citizens “ think” ????
50% on the Eastern side of this place say aw shucks, no NATO.
A little less from the folks to the West.
( Sideline; “ Corruption” )
Not worth going to war on the guise of “ Preserving Democracy “.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 22, 2022, 10:09:18 PM
^ Some say Putin is actually trying to create a distraction to take the Russian people's attention away from all the things wrong in their country such as a lousy quality of life under Putin's leadership.  Supposedly, Putin, in support of this, has cranked up his propaganda machine to full speed telling Russians that Ukraine is a threat to Russia.

Putin knows Ukraine is no threat to Russia, It's the other way around. And, he may not like NATO at his doorstep, but NATO clearly has no intention or reason to "invade" Russia so Putin is just trumping up that issue.  NATO might even be willing to agree to hold back on stationing certain military assets in Ukraine as long as Russia was behaving, just to throw in a bone.

Some pundits believe Putin should be more worried about the rumblings in Kazakhstan, which, to date has had pro-Putin puppets leading the country.  The unrest there could be taken as a exemplar for the Russian people which is Putin's ultimate concern.

This is all about Putin maintaining his hold on power while overseeing a corrupt and murderous bureaucracy that he is plundering for his own financial gain.  It is amazing that for over 100 years, an otherwise very intelligent people, have tolerated so many terrible leaders that have turned around and abused them.  Unfortunately, there are some today in this country who feel we might be facing a similar fate going forward.

If Ukraine has any decent military assets, even in a losing effort, they could extract a very heavy toll on Russia.  I note that Ukraine also has a population of about 43,000,000.  Compare this to Afghanistan that is about 39,000,000.  Russia never could tame the latter so I would imagine they could face decades of Western supported urban combat and militant attacks both in Ukraine and in Russia if they successfully invade.  I would be surprised if 100,000 Russian troops less their battle losses would be able to sustain a worry-free occupation.  Another war of wills like Afghanistan or Viet Nam.

Between heavy losses and ongoing attacks, along with global sanctions, I wonder if even Putin could survive the resulting turmoil within Russia. 

Putin's attempt to rebuild the USSR reflects a failure to learn lessons of the past.  He might get some of it done but it won't hold together forever.

Doesn't mean Putin doesn't take a plunge if his ego and power hungry desires block his common sense.  So far, I suppose, that has been how he operates, unfortunately.

This CNN opinion piece echoes many of my previous comments about about the risks to, and motivations of, Putin if he invades Ukraine:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/13/opinions/putin-russia-us-nato-miscalculation-ghitis/index.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 23, 2022, 07:57:01 AM
Thank goodness CNN reads the forum...  :)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 23, 2022, 10:23:44 AM
The Germans should understand what pandering to dictators produces...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/1/23/german-navy-chief-resigns-after-controversial-ukraine-comments
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 23, 2022, 04:27:13 PM
(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/4956/production/_122647781_nato_member_states_10jan_map640-2x-nc.png)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 24, 2022, 03:41:49 PM
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60118193

Some 8,500 combat-ready US troops are on high alert to deploy at short notice amid rising tension over Ukraine, the Pentagon says.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 27, 2022, 07:33:36 AM
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Budapest_Memorandum_on_Security_Assurances

Quote
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances refers to three identical political agreements signed at the OSCE conference in Budapest, Hungary on 5 December 1994 to provide security assurances by its signatories relating to the accession of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The memorandum was originally signed by three nuclear powers: the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom, and the United States. China and France gave somewhat weaker individual assurances in separate documents.[1]

Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
Memorandum on Security Assurances in connection with the Republic of Belarus'/Republic of Kazakhstan's/Ukraine's accession to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
Signed
5 December 1994.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 27, 2022, 12:06:52 PM
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/01/27/what-are-russian-state-media-saying-about-ukraine-a76172

What Are Russian State Media Saying About Ukraine?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on January 27, 2022, 02:15:00 PM
Russian State Media:

Ukraine is massing hundreds of thousands of troops on our border, prepping for an invasion and destabilizing the region.....

Ooops, that's us.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 27, 2022, 04:33:20 PM
Russia and China… lying liars who lie…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 30, 2022, 08:26:38 AM
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-russia-moves-blood-supplies-near-ukraine-adding-us-concern-officials-2022-01-28/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on January 30, 2022, 07:22:43 PM
Russia and China… lying liars who lie…
There are many others that might be added to that list...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 30, 2022, 07:49:18 PM
Russia and China… lying liars who lie…
There are many others that might be added to that list...
Who might that be?  Are they threatening a democracy in Europe or Asia?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 30, 2022, 10:54:00 PM
^ At a minimum, I would add Iran and North Korea. 

When it comes to being less than truthful, well, I think every country, including ours, has been guilty of that at times.  Some, obviously, more than others.  As such, today, I would say Saudia Arabia, Belarus, Afghanistan, Myanmar Venezuela, Cuba and Kazakhstan would be notable leading candidates to add to the list.  I am sure there are others, just not as obvious or prominent.  Certainly, any country with an oppressive government and/or dictator is a candidate.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Charles Hunter on January 30, 2022, 11:10:27 PM
Russia and China… lying liars who lie…
There are many others that might be added to that list...
Who might that be?  Are they threatening a democracy in Europe or Asia?

The US Republican Party, although the continent would be North America.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 31, 2022, 06:41:24 AM
^ At a minimum, I would add Iran and North Korea. 

When it comes to being less than truthful, well, I think every country, including ours, has been guilty of that at times.  Some, obviously, more than others.  As such, today, I would say Saudia Arabia, Belarus, Afghanistan, Myanmar Venezuela, Cuba and Kazakhstan would be notable leading candidates to add to the list.  I am sure there are others, just not as obvious or prominent.  Certainly, any country with an oppressive government and/or dictator is a candidate.

Certainly Iran and North Korea...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 31, 2022, 06:43:52 AM
Russia and China… lying liars who lie…
There are many others that might be added to that list...
Who might that be?  Are they threatening a democracy in Europe or Asia?

The US Republican Party, although the continent would be North America.

Ok Charles... lol.  When was the last time Putin, Xi, Kim, ayatollah lost an election?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on January 31, 2022, 08:22:00 AM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on January 31, 2022, 08:39:45 AM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Sooo... you believe Putin?  Got it...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on February 01, 2022, 12:06:57 PM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Sooo... you believe Putin?  Got it...
Now, now, BT.  How can you come up with such a supposition? Was it meant to troll me, or are you hallucinating?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 01, 2022, 03:48:42 PM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Sooo... you believe Putin?  Got it...
Now, now, BT.  How can you come up with such a supposition? Was it meant to troll me, or are you hallucinating?
Just trying to make sense  of nonsense...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on February 01, 2022, 04:33:20 PM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Sooo... you believe Putin?  Got it...
Now, now, BT.  How can you come up with such a supposition? Was it meant to troll me, or are you hallucinating?
Just trying to make sense  of nonsense...
You have it reversed.  You put your way of thinking into the many situations that seem to be above your head.  That was a quote from a California Republican Senator in 1918.  From personal experience, I have to agree with him.  I never mentioned anyone, especially Putin.  Where do you come up with this sort of stuff?  Must you critique many posters here with your rubbish?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 01, 2022, 05:03:33 PM
"The first casualty in any conflict is the truth."
Sooo... you believe Putin?  Got it...
Now, now, BT.  How can you come up with such a supposition? Was it meant to troll me, or are you hallucinating?
Just trying to make sense  of nonsense...
You have it reversed.  You put your way of thinking into the many situations that seem to be above your head.  That was a quote from a California Republican Senator in 1918.  From personal experience, I have to agree with him.  I never mentioned anyone, especially Putin.  Where do you come up with this sort of stuff?  Must you critique many posters here with your rubbish?
AND yet... I still have no idea what you are referring to. Is there some sort of point your trying to make regarding the Ukraine situation or are we just going to post random quotes from 20th century politicians... happy to debate or discuss but need to understand your point...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 01, 2022, 07:02:12 PM
Post from Ukraine:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2022/02/01/ukraine-russia-invasion-disbelief-unpreparedness-mariupol-front-line-lead-ward-dnt-vpx.cnn
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 04, 2022, 10:02:24 AM
After seeing the world's top two dictators together on stage at the Olympics... here is a pretty good analysis of the near future in Ukraine...

https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2022/02/what-china-actually-saying-about-russia-and-ukraine/361561/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2022, 08:40:52 AM
Naval blockade?

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/10/russia-readies-for-naval-blockade-of-ukraine-ahead-of-missile-drills-reports-2-a76321
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 11, 2022, 04:32:33 PM
More countries advising their citizens to get out ASAP...

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/11/nato-and-russia-clash-over-reinforcements-in-eastern-europe-live
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 13, 2022, 09:32:49 AM
Wow... A retired Russian general stands up to Putin... I  wish him well...

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/593880-a-retired-russian-generals-criticism-may-signal-a-larger-problem-for
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 01:33:59 PM
Putin and company are working up their pretext for invasion...

https://tass.com/emergencies/1406225
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 18, 2022, 01:49:21 PM
https://www.osce.org/special-monitoring-mission-to-ukraine/512506

Quote
OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM) Daily Report 37/2022 issued on 17 February 2022
KYIV 17 February 2022

Based on information from the Monitoring Teams as of 19:30 16 February 2022. All times are in Eastern European Time.

Summary

In Donetsk region, the SMM recorded 189 ceasefire violations, including 128 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 24 ceasefire violations in the region.
In Luhansk region, the Mission recorded 402 ceasefire violations, including 188 explosions. In the previous reporting period, it recorded 129 ceasefire violations in the region.
A member of the armed formations threatened an SMM patrol at a training area near non-government-controlled Shymshynivka, Luhansk region.
The SMM continued monitoring the disengagement areas near Stanytsia Luhanska, Zolote and Petrivske. It recorded ceasefire violations inside the areas near Stanytsia Luhanska and Zolote.
The Mission monitored the operation of critical civilian infrastructure.
The SMM continued to follow up on the situation of civilians, including at four entry-exit checkpoints and the corresponding checkpoints of the armed formations in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
The Mission visited a border crossing point in Kharkiv region, where it saw no change in the security situation.
The SMM observed gatherings in Kyiv and Dnipro.
The Mission’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted, including at a heavy weapons holding area in a government-controlled area of Luhansk region, at a permanent storage site and a heavy weapons holding area in non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk region, and at a training area in a non-government-controlled area of Luhansk region. Its unmanned aerial vehicles again encountered instances of GPS signal interference, assessed as caused by probable jamming.*
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 20, 2022, 07:53:44 AM
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/20/eastern-ukraine-front-line-civilians-shelling-russia

Quote
Marinka, Ukraine – Valentina Gordeyeva realised something was coming when the tops of nearby fir trees started to shake but as she ran to shelter in a nearby shop, a shard of shrapnel pierced the soft flesh of her left hand.

“I was holding a bag and felt pain, and then I saw blood running down my bag,” the 65-year-old said, her thumb and wrist now bandaged after she became one of four civilians wounded in shelling by Russian-backed separatists since Thursday.... 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 21, 2022, 04:55:59 PM
Putin warns Kyiv, "You want decommunization? We will show you what it’s like."  Putin recognizes break away regions effectively nullifying the Minsk accords... the war has already begun...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/talk-biden-putin-summit-ukraine-shelling-rcna17033
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxlongtimer on February 21, 2022, 05:30:03 PM
^ Not only did Putin recognize them but he is now moving in Russian "peacekeeping" forces to them, essentially making them Russian territory.  Now, with his fake pretext of border skirmishes, he will have what he wants to justify to his people invading Ukraine.  A lesson in the power of propaganda, lies, disinformation and controlling dissent (not unlike what we are seeing today close at home).

Right off the bat, if Putin does invade, I hope Ukraine can destroy Putin's recently built multi-billon dollar bridge from Russia to Crimea, for starters.  Putin needs to suffer economically, physically and emotionally.  Only then, one can hope, may the Russian people remove him from office, voluntarily or involuntarily.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 21, 2022, 06:23:33 PM
Lol... completely unlike what we are seeing at home.  Get a grip...

Because DeSantis is invading Georgia?  Threatening Alabama?  Shelling Atlanta?

Is he controlling your dissent?  Is DeSantis state controlled propaganda the only thing available?  Get a frickin grip.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 21, 2022, 08:49:14 PM
Please restrict your comments on this thread to the Ukraine crisis.   Thank you. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on February 22, 2022, 06:11:07 AM
I guess this isn't a question anymore
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 22, 2022, 06:55:33 AM
I guess this isn't a question anymore
True… but I answered the question affirmative on January 14…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on February 22, 2022, 08:36:05 AM
As I said earlier, "the first casualty in any conflict is the truth".
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 22, 2022, 08:52:19 AM
The weakness of the West showing loud and clear, unfortunately.  Had Germany, France the UK and USA stationed 25,000 peacekeepers each on the border (plus our carrier attack group that's looming over there) there would be no threat from Russia. Putin is a bully. He's only interested because no one is pushing back. Sanctions don't hurt Putin and the Oligarchs, they've stockpiled enough caviar and champagne to last 10 years. 

Putting in 100,000 peacekeepers would have also been a perfect way to get Ukraine to negotiate with NATO.  I think a huge missed opportunity for Biden here. He could have led the showdown against Putin, and no way Putin would cross that border with 100,000 well equipped and trained forces opposing him.   
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 22, 2022, 09:19:30 AM
I'm going to try to be more specific. Europe is showing a weakness of will... not capability. The Euro's should be out in front of this... not the US...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jaxoNOLE on February 23, 2022, 11:25:06 PM
Another historical quote:

"The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back. Because the Cold War has been over for 20 years."
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 05:47:19 AM
Another historical quote:

"The 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back. Because the Cold War has been over for 20 years."

The Cold War never ended. And what's happening in Ukraine is terrible. But let's not kid ourselves - this is the sort of thing that Great Powers do. They make up lies as a pretext for doing what they wanted to. They don't let anything stand in the way. Before we get too self-righteous about it, we have to remember that we did the same thing in Iraq about 20 years ago. We used lies and deception to provide a thin 'justification' for an illegal invasion and war. In fact, Ukraine contributed to our war effort.

So ordinary people will continue to suffer because of decisions made in Moscow, Washington, Beijing, London, Paris, etc.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 06:05:44 AM
Sorry Adam... HUGE difference.   Ukraine was a peaceful democracy not a dictator exporting terrorism. Ukraine has not invaded its neighbors nor has it committed constant genocide against its citizens... comparisons between the two countries is absurd and frankly bizarre...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 07:15:32 AM
Sorry Adam... HUGE difference.   Ukraine was a peaceful democracy not a dictator exporting terrorism. Ukraine has not invaded its neighbors nor has it committed constant genocide against its citizens... comparisons between the two countries is absurd and frankly bizarre...

The US invasion of Iraq was predicated on so-called 'weapons of mass destruction' that had been supplied to him by the USA and had been destroyed already. And false connections between Hussein and Al-Qaeda. Those were lies. The fact that Hussein was a brutal dictator would not have been enough to get the resolution passed (as we had propped him up for decades). But I'll not bother holding my breath, waiting for you to lobby for a US invasion of Saudi Arabia.

And Iraq's invasion of its neighbour was dealt with in the 90s - Iraq hadn't invaded anyone since the first Gulf War.

Deliberate lies also led to the 1991 war. As well as Vietnam. And the USA is always very willing to use force against countries it views as in its 'sphere of influence' whenever they don't toe the line - Guatemala, Cuba, Grenada, Panama, etc. We're as bad as Russia.

In any event, you will always stick up for aggression, as long as it is the USA doing it. And people like you are going to be the death of us all.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 07:22:51 AM
In any event, Adam... you will always stick up for dictators and communists... And people like you are going to be the death of us all.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 07:28:11 AM
The entire world is condemning Putin except China, North Korea,... and Adam....
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 07:30:35 AM
In any event, Adam... you will always stick up for dictators and communists... And people like you are going to be the death of us all.

I don't stick up for dictators or 'communists'. In fact, I have stated I oppose this invasion. But reading and logic were never your strong suit.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 07:33:13 AM
The entire world is condemning Putin except China, North Korea,... and Adam....

That's a lie. Go back a few posts and read again. Or maybe go back to school.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 07:38:35 AM
In any event, Adam... you will always stick up for dictators and communists... And people like you are going to be the death of us all.

I don't stick up for dictators or 'communists'. In fact, I have stated I oppose this invasion. But reading and logic were never your strong suit.
You really should direct your anger at Putin... lashing out at me is easier for you I suppose... have at it.  Equivocating Russian invasion of a peaceful democracy and anything you described above is just emotional silliness.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 07:41:46 AM
In any event, Adam... you will always stick up for dictators and communists... And people like you are going to be the death of us all.

I don't stick up for dictators or 'communists'. In fact, I have stated I oppose this invasion. But reading and logic were never your strong suit.
You really should direct your anger at Putin... lashing out at me is easier for you I suppose... have at it.  Equivocating Russian invasion of a peaceful democracy and anything you described above is just emotional silliness.

It's very "BridgeTroll" of you to completely miss the point of a post. And to twist someone's words. You're a regular Stephen Dare - but without the flair, sadly.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 07:44:06 AM
Quote
In any event, Adam... you will always stick up for dictators and communists... And people like you are going to be the death of us all.

I don't stick up for dictators or 'communists'. In fact, I have stated I oppose this invasion. But reading and logic were never your strong suit.
You really should direct your anger at Putin... lashing out at me is easier for you I suppose... have at it.  Equivocating Russian invasion of a peaceful democracy and anything you described above is just emotional silliness.

It's very "BridgeTroll" of you to completely miss the point of a post. And to twist someone's words. You're a regular Stephen Dare - but without the flair, sadly.

Oh... I found is here you "condemned Putin"... strong stuff...

Quote
The Cold War never ended. And what's happening in Ukraine is terrible.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 07:49:17 AM

Oh... I found is here you "condemned Putin"... strong stuff...

Quote
The Cold War never ended. And what's happening in Ukraine is terrible.

You missed a bit there, didn't you?

"The Cold War never ended. And what's happening in Ukraine is terrible. But let's not kid ourselves - this is the sort of thing that Great Powers do. They make up lies as a pretext for doing what they wanted to. They don't let anything stand in the way."

So, as I said, the war is terrible and it is predicated on lies. It was a foregone conclusion.

And I also said:

"So ordinary people will continue to suffer because of decisions made in Moscow, Washington, Beijing, London, Paris, etc."

So, as you can see, I have taken an anti-Moscow line. But I guess me being critical of NATO as well as being critical of Moscow and Beijing means I am secretly pro-Moscow and Beijing.


Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 07:58:47 AM
Hmmm... ok... I  also have been critical of NATO.  Expanding into the Baltics was a overreach in my opinion and encouraging Ukraine was bound to be a problem...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 08:03:55 AM
Hmmm... ok... I  also have been critical of NATO.  Expanding into the Baltics was a overreach in my opinion and encouraging Ukraine was bound to be a problem...

I agree with you there, BT. The thought that any one nation could dictate terms to another is repulsive to me - but then again, there is a certain element of realpolitik that we must not lose sight of. And Russia doesn't really see Ukraine and Belarus as 'real' countries. They view them as part of Russia. I think Ukraine's NATO ambitions were a step too far, but there is also the possibility that Putin is using the NATO angle as a pretext.

Regardless of any of that, the people of Ukraine are going to suffer (and possibly suffer very, very badly). And the world just got a lot closer to nuclear war. On the upside, maybe this means we don't have to worry about climate change so much.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 08:12:09 AM
There are many NATO forces and Russian forces rubbing elbows in the Mediterranean, Black sea, North Atlantic and Baltic sea... hopefully no one makes a mistake...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 08:17:03 AM
There are many NATO forces and Russian forces rubbing elbows in the Mediterranean, Black sea, North Atlantic and Baltic sea... hopefully no one makes a mistake...

Yeah, it's very worrisome. And the rhetoric is going to be quite heated over the coming days. I don't think it's likely that Russia will withdraw. But I don't want to see this conflict escalate. I really don't know what an 'acceptable' but realistic outcome would be. Maybe Russia absorbs the Donbas(s) region or something. But I suspect their ambitions are greater than that. And they've been needling the Baltic republics for a while now - but surely they know that will lead to a massive war?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 08:24:21 AM
Actually... my hope is that Ukraine puts up a staunch resistance causing anti Putin general's and politicians to overthrow that maniac. Of course that has its own problems..

Don't forget... China is watching closely...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Adam White on February 24, 2022, 08:28:40 AM
Actually... my hope is that Ukraine puts up a staunch resistance causing anti Putin general's and politicians to overthrow that maniac. Of course that has its own problems..


I had seen a story saying there was some disquiet in the military. Maybe this whole thing will be his undoing. I doubt it, though.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Charles Hunter on February 24, 2022, 09:03:19 AM
The entire world is condemning Putin except China, North Korea,... and Adam....

... and the Former Guy isn't condemning his pal's actions
Quote
“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump told a conservative podcaster in an interview published Tuesday.

"I said, 'How smart is that?' And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. ... We could use that on our southern border," the former president said, describing Putin as “a guy who’s very savvy” and whom he knows “very, very well.”
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 09:07:54 AM
The entire world is condemning Putin except China, North Korea,... and Adam....

... and the Former Guy isn't condemning his pal's actions
Quote
“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump told a conservative podcaster in an interview published Tuesday.

"I said, 'How smart is that?' And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. ... We could use that on our southern border," the former president said, describing Putin as “a guy who’s very savvy” and whom he knows “very, very well.”

Hopefully quotes like that exposes that moron for what he is...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Charles Hunter on February 24, 2022, 09:36:29 AM
The entire world is condemning Putin except China, North Korea,... and Adam....

... and the Former Guy isn't condemning his pal's actions
Quote
“I went in yesterday and there was a television screen, and I said, ‘This is genius.’ Putin declares a big portion of Ukraine — Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that’s wonderful,” Trump told a conservative podcaster in an interview published Tuesday.

"I said, 'How smart is that?' And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. ... We could use that on our southern border," the former president said, describing Putin as “a guy who’s very savvy” and whom he knows “very, very well.”

Hopefully quotes like that exposes that moron for what he is...

Have any of his allies in Congress, or certain Governor's offices, repudiated his comments?  Those who don't are complicit in his endorsement of the invasion of an independent democracy by a totalitarian dictator, and the thousands of lives that will be lost.
I have a feeling not many of those who don't already think him a moron will suddenly have an epiphany.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 24, 2022, 12:46:35 PM
Looking like Fox News is on board with Trump's assessment. 

Jeez, if we only had a strong Prez like Putin, imagine how cool that would be....
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 24, 2022, 02:34:55 PM
Looking like Fox News is on board with Trump's assessment. 

Jeez, if we only had a strong Prez like Putin, imagine how cool that would be....

I haven’t heard that but I don’t get my news from them…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 25, 2022, 01:03:13 PM
Spot on editorial... from the Germans...

The invasion of Ukraine marks the beginning of a dangerous new era in global politics. Europe must adapt to this new reality if it wants to survive.

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/russia-s-invasion-putin-s-attack-is-aimed-at-europe-a-15d72864-f2ab-45e5-942d-f64dc8aac3e0
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 26, 2022, 08:33:13 AM
Response from Dmitry Rogozin, director general of Roscosmos to Biden's "Alzheimer's sanctions" on Russia space program and future cooperation...

Quote
"Biden said the new sanctions would affect the Russian space program. OK. It remains to find out the details: 1. Do you want to block our access to radiation-resistant space microelectronics? So you already did it quite officially in 2014.As you noticed, we, nevertheless, continue to make our own spacecraft. And we will do them by expanding the production of the necessary components and devices at home.

“2. Do you want to ban all countries from launching their spacecraft on the most reliable Russian rockets in the world? This is how you are already doing it and are planning to finally destroy the world market of space competition from January 1, 2023 by imposing sanctions on our launch vehicles. We are aware. This is also not news. We are ready to act here too.

“Do you want to destroy our cooperation on the ISS? This is how you already do it by limiting exchanges between our cosmonaut and astronaut training centers. Or do you want to manage the ISS yourself? Maybe President Biden is off topic, so explain to him that the correction of the station’s orbit, its avoidance of dangerous rendezvous with space ..garbage, with which your talented businessmen have polluted the near-Earth orbit, is produced exclusively by the engines of the Russian Progress MS cargo ships. If you block cooperation with us, who will save the ISS from an uncontrolled deorbit and fall into the United States or…Europe? There is also the option of dropping a 500-ton structure to India and China. Do you want to threaten them with such a prospect? The ISS does not fly over Russia, so all the risks are yours. Are you ready for them?

“Gentlemen, when planning sanctions, check those who generate them for illness Alzheimer’s. Just in case. To prevent your sanctions from falling on your head. And not only in a figurative sense. Therefore, for the time being, as a partner, I suggest that you do not behave like an irresponsible gamer, disavow the statement about “Alzheimer’s sanctions”. Friendly advice”
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 26, 2022, 11:33:56 AM
It's a shame NATO didn't move 500 snipers into Kiev over the last month. That could have been done quietly and would have caused enormous casualties to the Russians. They never know what hit them.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 26, 2022, 01:44:04 PM
Fascinating reporting on Putin and his rise to power on WJCT today. Some is rebroadcast from earlier stories.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on February 26, 2022, 02:44:09 PM
Germany announced they were sending a 500(?) stinger missiles into Ukraine.  Poland too.  Extremely effective shoulder launched SAM.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 26, 2022, 03:52:55 PM
Germany announced they were sending a 500(?) stinger missiles into Ukraine.  Poland too.  Extremely effective shoulder launched SAM.
Germany was finally shamed into contributing... better late than never.  Over the past 20+ years they have gutted a once effective deterrent armed forces...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 26, 2022, 05:44:13 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 26, 2022, 06:24:18 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.
I think he already called him a genius...

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/24/politics/donald-trump-praises-putin/index.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: fsu813 on February 26, 2022, 06:35:08 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.

Likely not endorsed, but equivacated. Much like he did with the Saudi murder of the Washington Post journalist.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Ken_FSU on February 26, 2022, 09:56:21 PM
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2022/02/26/acosta-bridge-jacksonville-honor-ukraine-blue-yellow-lights/6956343001/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on February 26, 2022, 11:26:32 PM
All I know is for the sake of our city in particular, I pray this thing doesn't spill out of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 27, 2022, 07:51:44 AM
All I know is for the sake of our city in particular, I pray this thing doesn't spill out of Ukraine.
Ships from Mayport, and aircraft from NAS are mixing it up with the Russians all around the periphery of this  conflict...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 27, 2022, 08:34:53 AM
Pretty good editorial from a member of the Estonian parliament...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/02/25/russia-feels-provoked-by-democracy-and-loss-of-empire-a76594
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 27, 2022, 09:51:55 AM
This guy touches on everything... outstanding.
https://andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/ukraine-now-taiwan-next-2f5?utm_source=url
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on February 27, 2022, 10:21:34 AM
Yes, outstanding observations.  David Rennie of The Economist, who is a frequetnt NPR contributor, also gives excellent unvarnished reporting on international politics.

Question heard at work: "Are the Balkans next?"
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on February 27, 2022, 07:06:25 PM
All I know is for the sake of our city in particular, I pray this thing doesn't spill out of Ukraine.
Ships from Mayport, and aircraft from NAS are mixing it up with the Russians all around the periphery of this  conflict...

Im more concerned with the potential of WW3.  We are no longer so isolated globally that attack on US soil would be a real and definite possibility.  There are three very high profile targets within a quick drive of downtown.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 28, 2022, 08:17:17 AM
Interesting viewpoint from India...

https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/russias-friends-are-finding-it-harder-to-look-the-other-way-ukraine-invasion-vladimir-putin-unsc-7793697/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: vicupstate on February 28, 2022, 12:44:26 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.

Likely not endorsed, but equivacated. Much like he did with the Saudi murder of the Washington Post journalist.

There was a book out last year that wrote that Trump privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and the blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea if he was re-elected. 

https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942 (https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942)



 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 28, 2022, 01:17:42 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.

Likely not endorsed, but equivacated. Much like he did with the Saudi murder of the Washington Post journalist.

There was a book out last year that wrote that Trump privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and the blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea if he was re-elected. 

https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942 (https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942)



 

To be very clear… Trump is a clueless moron. But up until a week ago most NATO nations were not contributing anywhere near their responsibility. Germany was the worst offender. Apparently Putin has fixed NATO impotence in one gigantic miscalculation…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on February 28, 2022, 02:01:57 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.

Likely not endorsed, but equivacated. Much like he did with the Saudi murder of the Washington Post journalist.

There was a book out last year that wrote that Trump privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and the blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea if he was re-elected. 

https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942 (https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942)



 

To be very clear… Trump is a clueless moron. But up until a week ago most NATO nations were not contributing anywhere near their responsibility. Germany was the worst offender. Apparently Putin has fixed NATO impotence in one gigantic miscalculation…

This is a great point. Most of Europe was flagging on their NATO contributions, putting more on the U.S. They've really stepped up in less than a week. Condi Rice the other day said NATO has been reunited in a way she didn't think she'd see again after the collapse of the USSR. I have no clue what Putin was thinking, but if he really believes NATO is a threat to him, he's just made it a hell of a lot more serious.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: vicupstate on February 28, 2022, 03:02:22 PM
I'm more convinced than ever Trump would have endorsed this move by Putin. He idolizes the guy.

Likely not endorsed, but equivacated. Much like he did with the Saudi murder of the Washington Post journalist.

There was a book out last year that wrote that Trump privately indicated that he would seek to withdraw from NATO and the blow up the U.S. alliance with South Korea if he was re-elected. 

https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942 (https://www.amazon.com/Alone-Can-Fix-Donald-Catastrophic/dp/0593298942)



 

To be very clear… Trump is a clueless moron. But up until a week ago most NATO nations were not contributing anywhere near their responsibility. Germany was the worst offender. Apparently Putin has fixed NATO impotence in one gigantic miscalculation…

To be very clear… Trump is a clueless moron and a Russian asset.

FIFY
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 01, 2022, 07:26:37 AM
Nearly all news has focused on the land engagement... here is a good briefing on Black sea naval actions...

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2022/02/russia-ukraine-conflict-what-happened-in-the-black-sea-so-far/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 01, 2022, 08:18:08 AM
The German about face...

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/chancellor-scholz-takes-the-plunge-germany-completes-historic-foreign-policy-about-face-a-bacfc32f-c9c6-416d-90fa-d72e2e77aef6
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on March 01, 2022, 06:24:52 PM
Not a big fan of Bolton but he tells the truth. A rare commodity in the Trump Administration.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/john-bolton-says-trump-barely-knew-where-ukraine-was-and-complained-about-his-own-administrations-sanctions-against-russia/ar-AAUtD2l?li=BBnbfcL
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 04, 2022, 04:27:51 PM
Soooo… we have all been watching the events unfold in Europe. My question to you all is… Are we/NATO/the world doing enough to help the Ukrainians?  Not in favor of the no fly zone…. But are the sanctions enough?  Are we punishing the oligarchs enough?  Ukrainian politicians seem to believe we are holding back some of the more effective sanction options because they hurt the west too much…. Hoping for a Putin assassination…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Charles Hunter on March 04, 2022, 04:52:12 PM
The US is (unless it changed in the last few minutes) holding back on cutting off purchases of Soviet Russian petroleum. The reason given is to protect US consumers from even higher retail gas prices (and the ripple effect in the supply chain). Which, although some in the opposition party are screaming for more sanctions, would use "higher gas prices" in the upcoming elections.

Why are you against the No-Fly zone? Because they are not enforceable without escalating the conflict, and putting NATO and possibly the US, in a direct shooting war with Russia?

I'm not sure what we should be doing on sanctions, in part because I don't know how extensive we are leaning on the oligarchs. I think we are trying to increase the pressure in a step-wise manner. But, after the Russians attacked and seized a nuclear power plant, we should probably "go nuke" on the oligarchs and seize all of their assets.

And you have good hopes.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 05, 2022, 06:44:36 AM
Well… you answered the no fly zone question. It will lead to escalation… although things may be heading in that direction regardless. I do think however that we shouldn’t withhold sanctions to protect our wallets
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on March 05, 2022, 10:43:32 AM
I can only assume that if Russia moves on to attack a NATO member, THEN we will have an all out "shooting war" in Europe?

 I don't think it's a stretch to say that if given 48 hours, a large contingent of US/NATO fighters, bombers, and A-10 Warthogs could pretty much destroy every moving thing Russia has within the borders of Ukraine.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on March 05, 2022, 12:19:41 PM
I think the current strategy of not enforcing a "no fly zone" is the correct one.  The Ukraine is not a NATO member and trying to enforce a "no fly zone" there would only provoke an all out war.  It's sad to see the suffering and destruction Putin is inflicting, but an all out war would probably end the world as we know it.  We need to continue supplying Ukraine with weapons, food, and medical supplies.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 05, 2022, 01:50:08 PM
I can only assume that if Russia moves on to attack a NATO member, THEN we will have an all out "shooting war" in Europe?

 I don't think it's a stretch to say that if given 48 hours, a large contingent of US/NATO fighters, bombers, and A-10 Warthogs could pretty much destroy every moving thing Russia has within the borders of Ukraine.

And what do you think Putins reaction to that would be?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on March 05, 2022, 06:56:30 PM
If he attacks a NATO member?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 05, 2022, 07:31:27 PM
Sigh… never mind
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on March 06, 2022, 11:55:51 AM
My statement was just a hypothetical. I don't expect anything like that to happen, but I believe the outcome would be decisive.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 06, 2022, 12:41:50 PM
I'm beginning to think that the no fly zone isn't even really needed. I have read plenty of stories from military analysts that the Russian air force has been surprisingly ineffective. They certainly hold a numeric advantage but Saturday the Ukrainians shot down 7 aircraft with ground based antiaircraft fire.  Most of the damage and devastation we see was caused by artillery and rocket fire.  Keep sending Stingers and even more advanced systems and Ukraine can designate and enforce their own no fly zone...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on March 06, 2022, 10:19:51 PM
MANPADS systems are a serious threat to low flying aircraft.  The thing can go in the trunk of a car and be operated by a single person.  If I was a Russian helicopter pilot I'd be puckered up flying around knowing one of those things could be anywhere below.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 07, 2022, 05:12:47 PM
Hmmm... what happens when you don't show up at court...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/7/russia-snubs-un-court-hearings-in-case-brought-by-ukraine
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 07, 2022, 05:32:27 PM
Cool graphic...even if supplied by Chinese.

(https://www.globaltimes.cn/Portals/0/attachment/2022/2022-02-25/3f182dd6-f999-4fbe-8b89-8491e6f1bc6d.jpeg)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 09, 2022, 08:38:45 AM
Great evaluation of Russia's invasion...

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/evaluating-russias-performance-in-ukraine/

Quote
Evaluating Russia’s Performance in Ukraine
By George Friedman -March 8, 2022Open as PDF
The Russian invasion of Ukraine had two goals. The first was to take control of Ukraine, intending to complete the task begun in Belarus – the task of rebuilding Russia’s strategic buffers and securing Russia from attack. The second goal was to demonstrate the capabilities and professionalism of the Russian military and to further deter hypothetical acts and increase Russia’s regional influence. The two goals were interlocked.

The occupation of Ukraine has not been achieved, but it is not a lost cause. Perceptions of the strength of Russia’s military, however, have been badly damaged. There is no question but that Russian planners did not want to fight the war Russia has been fighting. Rather than a rapid and decisive defeat of Ukraine, Russia is engaged in a slow, grinding war unlikely to impress the world with its return to the first ranks of military power. At this point, even a final victory in its first objective will not redeem the second. It is important to start identifying the Russian weaknesses.

The first problem was a loss of surprise. Carl von Clausewitz placed surprise at the top of warfare. Surprise contracts the time an enemy has to prepare for war. It also imposes a psychological shock that takes time to overcome, making it more difficult to implement existing plans. And it increases the perceived power of the enemy. In Ukraine, however, extended diplomacy gave Kyiv time to adjust psychologically to the possibility of war.

Moscow failed to understand its enemy. Russia clearly expected Ukrainian resistance to collapse rapidly in the face of the massive armored force it had gathered. It did not expect the Ukrainian populace to fight back to an extent that would at least delay completion of the war.

The purpose of war is to break the enemy’s military capability. The Ukrainian military had a diffuse center of gravity and was at distance from the Russian armored battle groups. In addition, the population has fought back, increasing the amount of time necessary to end the resistance.

Russian war plans centered on three armored groups based in the east, south and north. Tanks have become vulnerable to infantry anti-tank weapons. Rather than brushing infantry aside, Russia now must use infantry to clear away deadly threats to its tanks. The use of armor as the decisive force on the battlefield, and therefore the main force, has evolved. This seems not to have been accepted by Russian planners. Armored war peaked in World War II. Armor remains present, but we have not seen armor-to-armor combat since the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and to some extent in Desert Storm. This was a generation ago. War has moved on.

The three Russian armored battle groups were widely separated. They did not support each other. Instead of a single coordinated war, the Kremlin opted for at least three separate wars, making a single decisive stroke impossible. A single integrated command, essential for warfighting, seemed to be lacking.

The use of armor vastly increased the pressure on Russian logistics. Instead of focusing supplies on a single thrust, it had to focus on three, plus other operations. Logistics for the major armored forces seemed to have broken down, making war termination impossible and further extending the war.

In recent days, Russia has adapted and turned toward taking cities. This is generating an effective counterforce among fighters who understand the streets and alleys and use them to delay Russia’s progress. Fighting in cities is among the costliest and most time-consuming actions in war. Capturing cities takes resources and is not the key to victory. Cities take on importance only after the enemy force has been defeated and demoralizing the nation is essential. The city is the prize of war, not the military goal. Russia turned the conflict from a counter-military to a counter-population war, which increased resistance by sowing desperation in the cities.

Behind this was the fact that Russia simply failed to identify Ukraine’s center of gravity. It concentrated armor and sought a similarly concentrated force to defeat. Instead, the center of gravity has been essentially an informal guerrilla force constantly dispersing and reforming, not threatening the Russians with defeat but keeping them off balance.

This pushed Russia further toward a counter-population strategy, which decreased the effectiveness of its armor – both slowing its progress and pitting it against small groups that it’s not designed to fight.

Russia failed to shut down Ukrainian communications internally and with the rest of the world. Rather than isolating the enemy internally and externally, it allowed Kyiv to wage psychological warfare against the Russian attack on all fronts, undermining the Russian psychological goal of being seen as an overwhelming force.

All of this culminated in the Russians’ final mistake. They expected the overwhelming availability of armor to cause a rapid capitulation. Ukraine is a large country, and if it is to be occupied by armor, the armor must move rapidly. Obviously, they expected shock and awe to break Ukraine’s will to resist. The shock was dissipated by the loss of surprise. The awe was limited by Russia’s inability to concentrate strategic force, and ultimately by Ukraine’s mobilization of its population as a resistance force.

The Russians needed a rapid war to achieve their goals. The way in which they fought the war was not at odds with a final victory, but it was at odds with a fast one. Russia defeating Ukraine over the course of weeks or months is not awe-inspiring given their relative power. And Russia’s goal of displaying a first-rank military in order to appear awesome to its neighbors will not be achieved. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 10, 2022, 07:48:04 AM
(https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/INTERACTIVE-Which-countries-rely-most-on-Russian-oilAJLABS.png?quality=80&w=770&resize=770%2C770)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 11, 2022, 05:01:48 PM
Things are not going well in Ukraine. Ukrainian defense is inspired and will undoubtedly last for quite awhile... but they are losing. I certainly support continued and accelerated sending arms for the Ukrainians to fight.  I do not endorse a no fly zone or direct confrontation.  I believe a negotiated peace at this point will concede large swaths of territory to Russia and political change in Russia's favor. Ukraine appears to be destined to be the buffer state Putin wants.  The upside to sacrificing Ukraine to Russia is the wakeup to the EU and NATO.  Putin has also identified himself and Russia as a country that CANNOT be trusted or believed. NATO and the EU need to treat Putin's Russia as the Soviet Union going forward.

I am not optimistic for Ukraine. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 12, 2022, 07:47:24 AM
Great article...

https://quillette.com/2022/03/11/remind-the-kremlin-of-its-weakness/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 14, 2022, 01:36:06 PM
I know one thing for certain, the "uncredited misinformation" AKA "based alternative media" are batting .1000; meanwhile the one sided (Russia bad, Ukraine good) mainstream media is peddling lies like usual. When big tech censorship is silencing voices of the inconvenient truth, then you know that they are telling it like it is, minus a big corporate contact and cherry picked narrative.   

This war is about as complex as they come. Various unsavory globalistic tentacles are supporting both countries VIA proxy. One thing for sure, American neo liberals and neo conservatives are very happy with any war. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on March 14, 2022, 02:36:39 PM
I was wondering when the Putin wing would get here.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 14, 2022, 02:58:46 PM
I know one thing for certain, the "uncredited misinformation" AKA "based alternative media" are batting .1000; meanwhile the one sided (Russia bad, Ukraine good) mainstream media is peddling lies like usual. When big tech censorship is silencing voices of the inconvenient truth, then you know that they are telling it like it is, minus a big corporate contact and cherry picked narrative.   

This war is about as complex as they come. Various unsavory globalistic tentacles are supporting both countries VIA proxy. One thing for sure, American neo liberals and neo conservatives are very happy with any war. 
Wow... just what lies?  Please be specific so I can show your errors... please share an example of a "cherry picked narrative".  Your unfounded statements lacks credibility without some links and quotes.  I can pull links and quotes from all over the world to prove my points... can you?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 14, 2022, 06:57:53 PM
^^^I wasn't even referring to you or anything. Why are you so aggressive? LOL. The same cabal of globalists gets to decide on what's "credible" or not...I don't have a damn dog in the fight; anyone saying I'm "Kremlin propaganda" probably already drunk the Kyiv Kool Aid.

If you insist with the link....Here's link from "the conservative friendly" Salon. Don't worry it's a "long story" though.... There's much more red flags too.... https://www.salon.com/2022/03/10/are-there-really-neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-well-yes--but-its-a-long-story/


Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on March 14, 2022, 11:18:04 PM
To reiterate our policy, we aren’t going to allow conspiracy theories and false information on the forum. It’s also unlikely to be a welcoming place for people hinting at conspiracy theories and Russian propaganda.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 15, 2022, 12:51:20 AM
Right on cue
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 15, 2022, 07:24:37 AM
^^^I wasn't even referring to you or anything. Why are you so aggressive? LOL. The same cabal of globalists gets to decide on what's "credible" or not...I don't have a damn dog in the fight; anyone saying I'm "Kremlin propaganda" probably already drunk the Kyiv Kool Aid.

If you insist with the link....Here's link from "the conservative friendly" Salon. Don't worry it's a "long story" though.... There's much more red flags too.... https://www.salon.com/2022/03/10/are-there-really-neo-nazis-fighting-for-ukraine-well-yes--but-its-a-long-story/



Thanks for the link.  On this site we ask for proof or at least links to support your position. My "aggressiveness" is simply questioning your list of allegations without any kind of proof or evidence to actually agree or disagree with.

It's no secret Ukraine has had struggles in the past with corruption and extremist groups on the left, right, russian, euro... In the past few years they have made progress eliminating their influence. Clearly Russia has grabbed the fact that there are "neonazi" elements within Ukraine as a pretext to invade and destroy a democratic elected government... (A Jewish president btw) Neonazi groups are present in virtually all democracies... including this one.

Putin's use of "de nazification" is simply an excuse or pretext to invade. He did the same in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and the Ukrainian Donbas region. He found an excuse or pretext to invade and absorb those territories... same thing here I-10.  Don't drink the kool-aid...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 15, 2022, 08:48:21 AM
WOW... if you are interested in a non partisan perspective from a informed and respected Chinese citizen read this translated article...

https://uscnpm.org/2022/03/12/hu-wei-russia-ukraine-war-china-choice/

Quote
The Russo-Ukrainian War is the most severe geopolitical conflict since World War II and will result in far greater global consequences than September 11 attacks. At this critical moment, China needs to accurately analyze and assess the direction of the war and its potential impact on the international landscape. At the same time, in order to strive for a relatively favorable external environment, China needs to respond flexibly and make strategic choices that conform to its long-term interests.

Russia’s ‘special military operation’ against Ukraine has caused great controvsery in China, with its supporters and opponents being divided into two implacably opposing sides. This article does not represent any party and, for the judgment and reference of the highest decision-making level in China, this article conducts an objective analysis on the possible war consequences along with their corresponding countermeasure options.

I. Predicting the Future of the Russo-Ukrainian War

1.  Vladimir Putin may be unable to achieve his expected goals, which puts Russia in a tight spot. The purpose of Putin’s attack was to completely solve the Ukrainian problem and divert attention from Russia’s domestic crisis by defeating Ukraine with a blitzkrieg, replacing its leadership, and cultivating a pro-Russian government. However, the blitzkrieg failed, and Russia is unable to support a protracted war and its associated high costs. Launching a nuclear war would put Russia on the opposite side of the whole world and is therefore unwinnable. The situations both at home and abroad are also increasingly unfavorable. Even if the Russian army were to occupy Ukraine’s capital Kyiv and set up a puppet government at a high cost, this would not mean final victory. At this point, Putin’s best option is to end the war decently through peace talks, which requires Ukraine to make substantial concessions. However, what is not attainable on the battlefield is also difficult to obtain at the negotiating table. In any case, this military action constitutes an irreversible mistake.

2.  The conflict may escalate further, and the West’s eventual involvement in the war cannot be ruled out. While the escalation of the war would be costly, there is a high probability that Putin will not give up easily given his character and power. The Russo-Ukrainian war may escalate beyond the scope and region of Ukraine, and may even include the possibility of a nuclear strike. Once this happens, the U.S. and Europe cannot stay aloof from the conflict, thus triggering a world war or even a nuclear war. The result would be a catastrophe for humanity and a showdown between the United States and Russia. This final confrontation, given that Russia’s military power is no match for NATO’s, would be even worse for Putin.

3.  Even if Russia manages to seize Ukraine in a desperate gamble, it is still a political hot potato. Russia would thereafter carry a heavy burden and become overwhelmed. Under such circumstances, no matter whether Volodymyr Zelensky is alive or not, Ukraine will most likely set up a government-in-exile to confront Russia in the long term. Russia will be subject both to Western sanctions and rebellion within the territory of Ukraine. The battle lines will be drawn very long. The domestic economy will be unsustainable and will eventually be dragged down. This period will not exceed a few years.

4. The political situation in Russia may change or be disintegrated at the hands of the West. After Putin’s blitzkrieg failed, the hope of Russia’s victory is slim and Western sanctions have reached an unprecedented degree. As people’s livelihoods are severely affected and as anti-war and anti-Putin forces gather, the possibility of a political mutiny in Russia cannot be ruled out. With Russia’s economy on the verge of collapse, it would be difficult for Putin to prop up the perilous situation even without the loss of the Russo-Ukrainian war. If Putin were to be ousted from power due to civil strife, coup d’état, or another reason, Russia would be even less likely to confront the West. It would surely succumb to the West, or even be further dismembered, and Russia’s status as a great power would come to an end.

II. Analysis of the Impact of Russo-Ukrainian war On International Landscape

1. The United States would regain leadership in the Western world, and the West would become more united. At present, public opinion believes that the Ukrainian war signifies a complete collapse of U.S. hegemony, but the war would in fact bring France and Germany, both of which wanted to break away from the U.S., back into the NATO defense framework, destroying Europe’s dream to achieve independent diplomacy and self-defense. Germany would greatly increase its military budget; Switzerland, Sweden, and other countries would abandon their neutrality. With Nord Stream 2 put on hold indefinitely, Europe’s reliance on US natural gas will inevitably increase. The US and Europe would form a closer community of shared future, and American leadership in the Western world will rebound.

2. The “Iron Curtain” would fall again not only from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea, but also to the final confrontation between the Western-dominated camp and its competitors. The West will draw the line between democracies and authoritarian states, defining the divide with Russia as a struggle between democracy and dictatorship. The new Iron Curtain will no longer be drawn between the two camps of socialism and capitalism, nor will it be confined to the Cold War. It will be a life-and-death battle between those for and against Western democracy. The unity of the Western world under the Iron Curtain will have a siphon effect on other countries: the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy will be consolidated, and other countries like Japan will stick even closer to the U.S., which will form an unprecedentedly broad democratic united front.

3. The power of the West will grow significantly, NATO will continue to expand, and U.S. influence in the non-Western world will increase. After the Russo-Ukrainian War, no matter how Russia achieves its political transformation, it will greatly weaken the anti-Western forces in the world. The scene after the 1991 Soviet and Eastern upheavals may repeat itself: theories on “the end of ideology” may reappear, the resurgence of the third wave of democratization will lose momentum, and more third world countries will embrace the West. The West will possess more “hegemony” both in terms of military power and in terms of values and institutions, its hard power and soft power will reach new heights.

4. China will become more isolated under the established framework. For the above reasons, if China does not take proactive measures to respond, it will encounter further containment from the US and the West. Once Putin falls, the U.S. will no longer face two strategic competitors but only have to lock China in strategic containment. Europe will further cut itself off from China; Japan will become the anti-China vanguard; South Korea will further fall to the U.S.; Taiwan will join the anti-China chorus, and the rest of the world will have to choose sides under herd mentality. China will not only be militarily encircled by the U.S., NATO, the QUAD, and AUKUS, but also be challenged by Western values and systems.

III. China’s Strategic Choice

1. China cannot be tied to Putin and needs to be cut off as soon as possible. In the sense that an escalation of conflict between Russia and the West helps divert U.S. attention from China, China should rejoice with and even support Putin, but only if Russia does not fall. Being in the same boat with Putin will impact China should he lose power. Unless Putin can secure victory with China’s backing, a prospect which looks bleak at the moment, China does not have the clout to back Russia. The law of international politics says that there are “no eternal allies nor perpetual enemies,” but “our interests are eternal and perpetual.” Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible. At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.

2. China should avoid playing both sides in the same boat, give up being neutral, and choose the mainstream position in the world. At present, China has tried not to offend either side and walked a middle ground in its international statements and choices, including abstaining from the UN Security Council and the UN General Assembly votes. However, this position does not meet Russia’s needs, and it has infuriated Ukraine and its supporters as well as sympathizers, putting China on the wrong side of much of the world. In some cases, apparent neutrality is a sensible choice, but it does not apply to this war, where China has nothing to gain. Given that China has always advocated respect for national sovereignty and territorial integrity, it can avoid further isolation only by standing with the majority of the countries in the world. This position is also conducive to the settlement of the Taiwan issue.

3. China should achieve the greatest possible strategic breakthrough and not be further isolated by the West. Cutting off from Putin and giving up neutrality will help build China’s international image and ease its relations with the U.S. and the West. Though difficult and requiring great wisdom, it is the best option for the future. The view that a geopolitical tussle in Europe triggered by the war in Ukraine will significantly delay the U.S. strategic shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region cannot be treated with excessive optimism. There are already voices in the U.S. that Europe is important, but China is more so, and the primary goal of the U.S. is to contain China from becoming the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region. Under such circumstances, China’s top priority is to make appropriate strategic adjustments accordingly, to change the hostile American attitudes towards China, and to save itself from isolation. The bottom line is to prevent the U.S. and the West from imposing joint sanctions on China.

4. China should prevent the outbreak of world wars and nuclear wars and make irreplaceable contributions to world peace. As Putin has explicitly requested Russia’s strategic deterrent forces to enter a state of special combat readiness, the Russo-Ukrainian war may spiral out of control. A just cause attracts much support; an unjust one finds little. If Russia instigates a world war or even a nuclear war, it will surely risk the world’s turmoil. To demonstrate China’s role as a responsible major power, China not only cannot stand with Putin, but also should take concrete actions to prevent Putin’s possible adventures. China is the only country in the world with this capability, and it must give full play to this unique advantage. Putin’s departure from China’s support will most likely end the war, or at least not dare to escalate the war. As a result, China will surely win widespread international praise for maintaining world peace, which may help China prevent isolation but also find an opportunity to improve its relations with the United States and the West.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 15, 2022, 09:34:41 AM
Another great non partisan analysis...

https://unherd.com/2022/03/was-ukraine-betrayed-by-its-own-elites/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 15, 2022, 06:01:22 PM
Thanks for the link.  On this site we ask for proof or at least links to support your position. My "aggressiveness" is simply questioning your list of allegations without any kind of proof or evidence to actually agree or disagree with.

It's no secret Ukraine has had struggles in the past with corruption and extremist groups on the left, right, russian, euro... In the past few years they have made progress eliminating their influence. Clearly Russia has grabbed the fact that there are "neonazi" elements within Ukraine as a pretext to invade and destroy a democratic elected government... (A Jewish president btw) Neonazi groups are present in virtually all democracies... including this one.

Putin's use of "de nazification" is simply an excuse or pretext to invade. He did the same in Chechnya, Georgia, Crimea, and the Ukrainian Donbas region. He found an excuse or pretext to invade and absorb those territories... same thing here I-10.  Don't drink the kool-aid...

Thank you BT. IMO you are one of the most reasonable voices on this site, it's why I was surprised by your initial reaction. I do agree that Putin used the 'fighting Nazis" excuse to invade Ukraine (and he didn't really care about that), but there were real political reasons concerning why he invaded; I'm not gonna go into those spicy factors. The subtitle of Politics says "Put on your thick skin" but the unwavering political alignment by many says otherwise....

I highly recommend the 2016 documentary that's available on youtube (that's gained recent popularity) called "Ukraine on Fire". It's made by Oliver Stone, who's obviously not some right winger or anything like that. IMO it's not flawless, but it covered many topics concerning the past conflicts of Ukraine, and the corruption in that region.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 15, 2022, 06:48:43 PM
Most reasonable??  OMG... you are going to ruin my reputation... I beg you to stop  ;) :)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on March 15, 2022, 11:18:47 PM
Oliver Stone is indeed a left winger. He’s also a conspiracy theorist.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 16, 2022, 06:48:05 AM
Oliver Stone "documentaries" are fictions based loosely on an event or person. His movie JFK was touted as a documentary but it was a conspiracy fiction based on Stone's fantasy and views. He is also a Putin fanboy... Hopefully you are not seeing the Ukrainian situation through Stone's conspiracy tainted eyes...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Snaketoz on March 16, 2022, 09:38:42 AM
BT, Post #123 is your best post to date.  Good reading and sensible. Thanks.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 16, 2022, 11:07:56 AM
BT, Post #123 is your best post to date.  Good reading and sensible. Thanks.
I can only take credit for finding and posting. It was written by Hu Wei.  Hu Wei is the vice-chairman of the Public Policy Research Center of the Counselor’s Office of the State Council, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association, the chairman of the Academic Committee of the Chahar Institute, a professor, and a doctoral supervisor.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 19, 2022, 10:25:42 AM
Russia escalating... introducing hypersonic missiles.

https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/19/russia-kinzhal-ukraine/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 20, 2022, 08:30:22 AM
How do arms get to Ukrainian resistance?  Great article...

https://www.stripes.com/theaters/europe/2022-03-18/secret-transfer-military-equipment-ukrainian-soldiers-5390190.html

Quote
Inside the secret transfer of military equipment to Ukrainian soldiers
BY STEVE HENDRIX • THE WASHINGTON POST • MARCH 18, 2022

ON THE POLAND-UKRAINE BORDER — There were no passport officers on the dirt road, no customs lane, no signs marking this isolated patch of farmland for what it has become: a clandestine gateway for military supplies entering Ukraine.

“No pictures, no pictures,” shouted a Polish border guard as a convoy of 17 trucks hissed to a halt on a biting morning earlier this week.

Not far from here was a Ukrainian military base where at least 35 people had been killed a few days earlier by a Russian missile barrage, and no one wanted to call attention to this ad hoc border crossing. Washington Post journalists were directed to turn off the geolocation function of their cameras.

The convoy was carrying 45 vehicles — retrofitted Jeeps, ambulances, an armored bank truck and an army field kitchen — as well as 24 tons of diesel. It had traveled overnight from Lithuania as part of a swelling supply network racing to catch up with the return of war to Europe. More than a dozen volunteer drivers, including one whose relief work was normally limited to helping motorists stranded on the highway, had driven hood-to-taillight almost around-the-clock to rendezvous with Ukrainian fighters.

While governments negotiate over fighter jets and high-end weapon systems, soldiers on the ground are struggling to fill more basic needs. With Ukraine’s own factories shut down by shelling, its forces rely increasingly on volunteer, pop-up supply chains like this one for vital gear, including body armor, medical supplies and the pickup trucks and SUVs they covet as fighting vehicles.

A second convoy was scheduled to arrive later in the day, packed with generators, radios, surveillance drones, night-vision gear and, most coveted of all, almost 7,000 bulletproof vests and helmets. For the soldiers, it is a lifeline.

“That is what we need the most,” said Lt. Andrey Bystriyk, one of the many Ukrainian fighters who had traveled across his war-ravaged country to meet the convoys. His blue eyes teared up when he talked about the aid pouring in from neighboring countries.

“From the army, we get the gun and the ammunition and the uniform,” he said. “But under the uniform, what we eat, what keeps us safe, how we move around and fight — that comes from the people, our people and foreign people.”

The journey began hundreds of miles to the north in a warehouse in Lithuania, a country not usually thought of as a military supply hub.

But this tiny Baltic nation has seen a huge outpouring of support for Ukraine, imagining what Russian President Vladimir Putin might have in store for it should he prevail in his current invasion. Vilnius, Lithuania’s small medieval-era capital, is filled with blue and yellow Ukrainian flags.

Much of the donated money and supplies has flowed to Blue and Yellow, a nonprofit founded in 2014 to supply Ukrainians fighting the takeover of eastern Ukraine by Russian-backed separatists. Now the group is the focal point of a country’s yearning to help.

“It has just exploded,” said Jonas Ohman, a Swedish-born filmmaker who started the group.

For years, Ohman said, he took no salary and had no paid staff as he fulfilled direct requests from front-line units with an annual budget of less than $200,000. Since the invasion last month, more than $20 million has poured in from within Lithuania, a country of 2.8 million residents. He is dispatching a convoy to the border every four or five days.

With a cellphone held against a days-old beard, Ohman orders military gear by the ton from around Europe, China, Israel. He argues with customs officials in a half-dozen countries to get the shipments delivered, railing against functionaries who block his way and officers who are slaves to regulation.

“I tell them all the time: 10,000 euros can be more deadly than a million if you know how to spend it,” he growled between phone calls.

Ohman has filled one donated warehouse on the outskirts of Poland’s capital, Warsaw. Another in Vilnius, provided by a Lithuanian transport company, has become a drop-off site for locals wanting to give.

“These will work,” one volunteer declared on a recent afternoon when a truck arrived at the Vilnius warehouse with 800 pairs of new steel-toed boots and 1,000 fleece jackets still in the wrapper, all donated by a hunting goods retailer.

A forklift unloaded the cases, depositing them next to 14 pallets of IV saline solutions and boxes filled with 13,000 trauma tourniquets and 200 satellite phones.

A local marketing company has launched a fundraising campaign for the group. And a group of Rotary Club volunteers makes calls to military suppliers in surrounding countries.

“Everything in Europe is selling out,” said Zemyna Bliumenzonaite, a Blue and Yellow staffer. “But we are getting more requests than ever.”

She held out her phone to show some of the texts she gets from soldiers in Ukraine. One named “Kruk” asked for 1,000 tourniquets and 40 individual first aid kits. She tells him they will be in the next convoy.

“You are our Guardian Angel,” he writes back.

“I heard they needed bigger vehicles and four-wheel drives,” said Dainius Navikas, 43, a Vilnius management consultant who immediately thought of his black 2015 Grand Cherokee. “I had no choice. The Ukrainians are fighting for us.”

Navikas and wife drove the Jeep — along with an extra set of winter tires — to a designated garage on the outskirts of the Lithuanian capital. They found a lot packed with dozens of vehicles ready to be processed and shipped to Ukraine.

Some had been signed over by their owners. Others had been bought by Blue and Yellow.

“When they hear we are buying for Ukraine, a lot them of them drop the price immediately,” said Lukas Pacevicius, the owner of the garage, who has largely suspended his regular business activities.

Working overnights and weekends, mechanics check the engines, sending them out to transmission or brake shops if needed. Armor plating is welded to some of the pickups, following specifications provided by the soldiers.

On a recent day, dozens of volunteers were scrambling around the vehicles, covering their windows and headlights with paper and masking tape ahead of repainting the bodies. Workers dodged the vehicles as they were shuttled from one part of the line to another.

Two men wearing Tyvek suits and respirators, well practiced in painting and not too fastidious, transformed Navikas’s glossy black Grand Cherokee into a dull green patrol vehicle in under 20 minutes. And then a Mercedes Sprinter, and then a Nissan Pathfinder. An olive mist hung over the entire workshop.

“We want to cover every reflective surface, even the bumpers and wheels,” said Rolandas Jundo, the owner of a sign company who was applying window tinting to a Land Rover that still reeked of paint.

Three days later, gassed up with donated fuel, most of the vehicles were driven onto car carriers. Two local tow trucks hitched up four more vehicles. Four men wrangled a military mobile kitchen into a panel truck.

With the sun still high, the convoy pulled out, flanked by a pair of Lithuanian police cars. Just outside of Vilnius, a group of people on a pedestrian bridge shouted and pumped their fists when the odd parade rolled under.

“It feels very important,” said one of the drivers, who like several volunteers spoke on the condition of anonymity due to a combination of modesty and security concerns. “We still have a lot of crazy Fifth-Column types around,” said another driver, referring to Russian sympathizers.

The convoy moved as fast as its slowest truck, about 50 miles an hour on average. At a gas station just before the Polish border, Lithuanian police handed off to their Polish counterparts. Sometime after 2 a.m., everyone pulled into a rest area north of Warsaw for two hours of sleep.

By dawn, forests had given way to rolling fields. The police escort kept their lights flashing and sounded their sirens as the trucks rumbled through red lights. Surprised locals stared from village sidewalks.

Nineteen hours and many cans of Red Bull later, the convoy pulled up at the unmarked entrance to Ukraine.

Bystriyk, an officer with the Zaporizhzhia Territorial Defense Brigade, had just endured his own all-night drive to reach the rendezvous. His was one of about 20 Ukrainian units, both regular military and volunteer militia, that had dispatched representatives to meet the convoy.

Bystriyk had driven about 11 hours from the area around the besieged city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine in hopes of getting vehicles and an upgrade on the body armor that most of his men now wear: homemade vests cobbled together by local residents with steel and canvas. “They try to bend it like a body shape, but it doesn’t work,” he said.

It would take about 3,000 sets of body armor to fully outfit his men, Bystriyk said. He had been told he might get as many as 400 when the second expected convoy arrived. In the meantime, he eagerly eyed the vehicles that were carried by the first one.

“Stingers and Javelins are critical of course,” he said of the antiaircraft and antitank missiles. “But for us, these vehicles are essential. They are our firepower, our mobility.”

Ukrainian soldiers drove them to a spot where border officials would fill out paperwork and then the vehicles would be distributed. One soldier made a beeline for a brand new CForce quad ATV — to be used in cavalry-like raids by Ukrainian Special Forces — and rode off with a grin.

Bystriyk looked for a truck that his men could mount with a rocket launcher or machine gun, creating one of the “specials” common with fighters in Libya, Syria and other recent hot spots. There weren’t as many pickups as in a delivery a week earlier, but he was glad to see Pathfinders, Freelanders, Pajeros.

Videos posted by Ukrainian fighters on social media show teams in SUVs like these outmaneuvering Russian armored vehicles, popping out from forests or side streets to hit them with rocket-propelled grenades and dashing away.

“Every day the Russians try to enter Zaporizhzhia and every day we have stopped them,” Bystriyk. “We need these cars. And we are thankful the Lithuanians are bringing them.”

In the end, Bystriyk was satisfied with a beefy Nissan Patrol to drive back to the war. But he learned that the convoy with the vests and helmets would be delayed because of a customs hang-up.

He would be back at this unlikely supply site, he knew. Probably many times.

“We need a lot,” he said. “And the need is still growing.”
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 22, 2022, 10:41:59 AM
Pretty cool site... the link below documents all aircraft losses during the conflict. The list is accompanied by photographic evidence of each loss...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 22, 2022, 11:07:37 AM
Same site same photographic evidence... of equipment (tanks,apc,etc) destroyed captured or abandoned...

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 23, 2022, 04:37:29 PM
Hmmm... senior general's are disappearing and not on the battlefield...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 23, 2022, 04:50:12 PM
Incredibly interesting insight into the Ukrainian resistance around the Odessa area...

https://www.19fortyfive.com/2022/03/how-ukraine-won-the-battle-of-mykolaiv/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 24, 2022, 08:32:59 AM
Great article describing Russian counter insurgency tactics...
https://mwi.usma.edu/dont-underestimate-the-bear-russia-is-one-of-the-worlds-most-effective-modern-counterinsurgents/

Quote
There are five characteristics of an authoritarian approach to counterinsurgency. First, authoritarian regimes have a stronger grip on information than democracies. While these regimes are not immune to dissent, their control of information offers a powerful tool for protecting their hold on power and silencing critics.

Second, and related, an authoritarian state’s monopoly on information can be used for mobilizing mass support at home for even the most brutal of campaigns. Key here is that in the logic of the authoritarian approach, information operations focus on selling the threat of the insurgency to domestic audiences and not on winning over the hearts and minds of the local population. The aim is to demonstrate the necessity of the use of force against insurgents and their supporters.

Third is the deliberate use of massive and often indiscriminate violence. This seeks to prevent the insurgents from mobilizing popular support while simultaneously augmenting governmental control. The fragmentation of society that results from such violence denies opponents the ability to build or sustain solid ties with local communities. For this purpose, “coercive engineered migrations” might also be adopted. As a result, the insurgency will become more isolated as it is deprived of popular support and sanctuary.

Fourth is the concept of “Holding, Suppressing, Controlling.” This effectively boils down to the imposition of a police state. Physical control of territory and people gives the state the ability to monitor cooperation and trumps achieving any sense of legitimacy among the local population. When satisfied with the level of control, locally recruited paramilitary, police, and intelligence forces will gradually take over from the armed forces. This is all about imposing and sustaining an effective apparatus for punishing any dissent as swiftly and severely as possible in order to achieve a deterrent effect.

Finally, even authoritarian governments have to persuade the population to accept the new balance of power. They typically do so by interposing the state in every local societal transaction and activity and thus rendering it indispensable to public life.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 27, 2022, 08:30:21 AM
Sooo... Biden makes a bold statement... something nearly everyone on the planet is saying and thinking and the State department and Biden handlers are falling all over themselves walking it back...

"For God's sake, this man cannot remain in power," possibly could have been as famous as "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall" or "Ich bin ein Berliner" ... now the sentence is meaningless because Blinken and company say he didn't really mean it... sad...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60891803
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 28, 2022, 11:59:03 PM
^^^He is an absolute disaster. This is well beyond the Team Red vs Team Blue nonsense. I can think of another country (not Russia) that desperately needs regime change; it's in North America, and the capital is Washington DC.

The real conservatives (not RINOs) hated him from the get go; the progressives jumped off the ship when he promised student loan forgiveness (and other things) but of course reneged. Hell, even much of his neo liberal "fanbase" has eroded. He's getting blasted by CNN and MSNBC now. Well, atleast he's got Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham as die hard supporters; because they also love war for profit....

I'm extremely worried about the US and the rest of the world going into WW3. This "president" is constantly banging the drums of war. The United States should absolutely stay out of this Ukraine war. Let those two Slavic-sphere countries work out their differences. Otherwise a WW3 (between nuclear powers) will erupt.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 29, 2022, 06:01:24 AM
As a former republican… I have no issue with Bidens statement… my issue is with Blinken and White House staffers…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on March 30, 2022, 04:29:57 PM
^^^Interesting take (I'm a former Democrat, now NPA BTW). I think the exact opposite. IMO most people would agree (including CNN) that Biden's staff is trying to stop the world from going into WW3. Given that the POTUS basically called for an act of war; twice called for a country's leader to be removed, and that the US will go tit for tat and respond with chemical weapons if Russia deploys them in Ukraine (among other things).

Then the US makes Russia look very reasonable with their response. The Kremlin spokesman says "This is a statement that is certainly alarming". LOL, you cannot make that up; it's like something from the Onion or Babylon Bee. IMO Biden's response is like we're a rogue dictatorship, and Russia responds like a first world country....

   
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on March 31, 2022, 01:36:52 PM
^Understandable take. But I don't think now is a time that nuance gets us much of anything. This is a war that Russia started. I don't have a problem with what Biden said in the context.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on March 31, 2022, 06:10:22 PM
At least Russian State Media is finally acknowledging Trump as a "partner."  In ordinary times that would sink any hope at re-election (or nomination for that matter). Unfortunately, with folks like Tucker Carlson informing the GOP base, it's a superlative.

I agree Biden said what every sane person is thinking. He should stick to it no matter.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on March 31, 2022, 06:31:40 PM
At least Russian State Media is finally acknowledging Trump as a "partner."  In ordinary times that would sink any hope at re-election (or nomination for that matter). Unfortunately, with folks like Tucker Carlson informing the GOP base, it's a superlative.

I agree Biden said what every sane person is thinking. He should stick to it no matter.
Lol... so you're going to cherry pick Russian media pronouncements?  Lying about everything else but that. Lol...
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on April 01, 2022, 09:14:30 AM
I'm not cherry picking. There's a ton of evidence from the last 6 years that clearly illustrates the chummy relationship between Trump and Putin. Even portions of Faux News is basically being re-broadcast in Russia as pro-Putin propaganda. Verbatim broadcasts. I have no idea who is pushing this narrative at Fox, or how they think they will benefit (i.e. damaging Biden).  But that's the facts.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 01, 2022, 02:59:37 PM
I'm not cherry picking. There's a ton of evidence from the last 6 years that clearly illustrates the chummy relationship between Trump and Putin. Even portions of Faux News is basically being re-broadcast in Russia as pro-Putin propaganda. Verbatim broadcasts. I have no idea who is pushing this narrative at Fox, or how they think they will benefit (i.e. damaging Biden).  But that's the facts.
I wouldn't know what Fox news is saying... but please keep us up to date.  I get "Russian news" from TASS and Moscow Times... no one ever talks about Trump there...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/

https://tass.com/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: acme54321 on April 01, 2022, 03:13:57 PM
I like how Russia acts all put off that Ukraine would dare blow up a fuel farm in Russia
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 07, 2022, 06:32:36 AM
https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 07, 2022, 08:29:31 AM
Interesting analysis...

https://geopoliticalfutures.com/how-the-ukraine-war-will-likely-end/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 09, 2022, 08:27:21 AM
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/a-closer-look-at-the-russian-atrocities-in-bucha-do-you-want-to-die-quickly-or-slowly-a-513b1e84-0e3a-42e9-bf17-d90e0ef9b119
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 11, 2022, 06:48:00 AM
Russian news agency TASS version of Kramatorsk attack...

https://tass.com/defense/1435103

Quote
Moscow says shelling of Kramatorsk by Ukraine confirms Russian operation is justified

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that Kiev won’t be able to evade responsibility for the shelling of civilians in Kramatorsk
MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday said that evidence is obvious that Ukraine’s armed forces are responsible for striking a railway station in Kramatorsk with a Tochka-U missile and these inhumane acts by the Kiev regime confirm that the goals of the Russian special operation are justified.

"Cold-bloodedly and cynically destroying the civilian population, Kiev is trying to shift the responsibility to the Russian side in order to discredit the special military operation to protect the DPR and LPR," the ministry said in a statement. "Evidence of the responsibility of the armed forces of Ukraine is obvious: it is they who are armed with and use the Tochka-U missiles, the fragments of which were found at the site of the tragedy."

"Such inhuman actions of the Kiev regime confirm the validity of the goals of the special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine," the statement went on to say.

The ministry said the strike on the Kramatorsk railway station on April 8 was delivered by the Ukrainian armed forces. "A similar barbaric act of aggression was committed by the armed forces of Ukraine on March 14 of this year, when, a strike by a similar Tochka-U missile in the center of Donetsk killed 17 people and wounded another 36 people," the ministry said. "In both cases, the target of the shelling was not accidental: the Kiev regime seeks to maximize civilian casualties. Killing them in Donbass over the past eight years has become a routine for the Ukrainian military units."

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that Kiev won’t be able to evade responsibility for the shelling of civilians in Kramatorsk. "We are confident that the Kiev authorities will not be able to evade responsibility," the statement said. "We call on the international community to give an unbiased assessment of the crimes of Ukrainian units, stop supplying them with weapons and encourage Kiev to abandon unacceptable methods of warfare."
 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 11, 2022, 07:28:00 AM
Interesting analysis of the Israeli stance on the Ukrainian/Russian issue...

https://bariweiss.substack.com/p/ukraine-learns-the-israel-lesson

Quote
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelensky declared Tuesday that, when the war is finally over, Ukraine would emerge from the rubble a “big Israel.”

He meant that the war would never really be over, that Ukraine would be on a permanent war footing, just as the Jewish state is. He meant that it would view its neighbors the way Israel has long viewed its own: As enemies waiting to pounce. Most importantly, he meant that Ukraine would never again rely on anyone else for its security: not the West, not the international community, not the so-called liberal order. It would be, like Israel, a nation apart, answering to no one but its people, in control of its own destiny....
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: I-10east on April 12, 2022, 02:52:54 AM
IMO John Mearsheimer a political realist and professor from the University of Chicago knows this war inside out, and from front to back. He doesn't buy into the mainstream narrative, so of course that makes him a "Putin puppet" or whatever....

I wanted to post a link, but apparently JaxsonMag doesn't deal with youtube anymore. Even people who I cannot stand like Noam Chomsky dropped all kinds of based truthbombs about Russia/Ukraine geopolitics (in the past). It's pretty funny that my opinion about Ukraine/Russia basically in lockstep with many on the anti-war left.

I will never right somone's opinion off, just because I disagree with them politically. That's something that many people cannot say (esp in today's hyper-polarized political world)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 12, 2022, 10:14:06 AM
Yeah... Both he and Putin blame NATO expansion. BooHoo... I'm sure Putin feels threatened by free countries on his borders.  Most dictators do... NATO most certainly did not impose itself on Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and others spent 50 years as slave nations to the Soviet Union. Once free they chose to join the NATO umbrella in a attempt to remain free. As a result of Putin's war he has pushed two formerly reluctant nations to NATO... Finland and Sweden.

You and your leftist friends may see some warts with Ukraine and few would deny those issues need to be addressed but this country has spent it entire existence under the thumb of the corrupt Soviets and now a corrupt totalitarian Russia. It seems to me those people want out...

We should help them.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on April 12, 2022, 02:51:31 PM
I am hoping Ukraine finds some black market cruise missiles and fires them at ........ the Kremlin?  Maybe some smoking ruins in Moscow will show the Russian's being bombarded isn't a lot of fun.

Does Russia ban/control/restrict internet access for it's citizens the way China does?
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 12, 2022, 02:59:22 PM
I am hoping Ukraine finds some black market cruise missiles and fires them at ........ the Kremlin?  Maybe some smoking ruins in Moscow will show the Russian's being bombarded isn't a lot of fun.

Does Russia ban/control/restrict internet access for it's citizens the way China does?

They control all internet access... VPNs are illegal. All television and news sources are government controlled.  Below is a example from TASS... tass.com...

Quote
Russian news agency TASS version of Kramatorsk attack...

https://tass.com/defense/1435103

Quote
Moscow says shelling of Kramatorsk by Ukraine confirms Russian operation is justified

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that Kiev won’t be able to evade responsibility for the shelling of civilians in Kramatorsk
MOSCOW, April 8. /TASS/. The Russian Foreign Ministry on Friday said that evidence is obvious that Ukraine’s armed forces are responsible for striking a railway station in Kramatorsk with a Tochka-U missile and these inhumane acts by the Kiev regime confirm that the goals of the Russian special operation are justified.

"Cold-bloodedly and cynically destroying the civilian population, Kiev is trying to shift the responsibility to the Russian side in order to discredit the special military operation to protect the DPR and LPR," the ministry said in a statement. "Evidence of the responsibility of the armed forces of Ukraine is obvious: it is they who are armed with and use the Tochka-U missiles, the fragments of which were found at the site of the tragedy."

"Such inhuman actions of the Kiev regime confirm the validity of the goals of the special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine," the statement went on to say.

The ministry said the strike on the Kramatorsk railway station on April 8 was delivered by the Ukrainian armed forces. "A similar barbaric act of aggression was committed by the armed forces of Ukraine on March 14 of this year, when, a strike by a similar Tochka-U missile in the center of Donetsk killed 17 people and wounded another 36 people," the ministry said. "In both cases, the target of the shelling was not accidental: the Kiev regime seeks to maximize civilian casualties. Killing them in Donbass over the past eight years has become a routine for the Ukrainian military units."

The Russian Foreign Ministry expressed confidence that Kiev won’t be able to evade responsibility for the shelling of civilians in Kramatorsk. "We are confident that the Kiev authorities will not be able to evade responsibility," the statement said. "We call on the international community to give an unbiased assessment of the crimes of Ukrainian units, stop supplying them with weapons and encourage Kiev to abandon unacceptable methods of warfare."
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on April 15, 2022, 11:34:17 AM
They apparently control "I-10 East" mind too.

Stop smoking crack.   

Trump was President for 4 years, and had total control of everything for 2 years. During that time he could have easily had Biden and his son investigated and indicted. He did not. Hmmmmm?  The actual investigation began when Obama was Prez. At least HB provided his tax returns, something DJT would not do. If you cant figure it out (and you can't) that's not our problem. Also, stop watching Newsmax. Send the Trumpy Bear back. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 15, 2022, 05:45:48 PM
Wow I-10... just freeking wow.  My former party is littered with folks like you spouting the same weird stuff you are.  You people elected Trump... you people are why I left.

Your post is of the factless, baseless, and unsupported variety and more of the same is unwanted and will be deleted.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: Tacachale on April 15, 2022, 11:38:52 PM
Removed a post above. This forum is not going to be a place for false statements and propaganda.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 16, 2022, 07:51:51 AM
Interesting article from a westerner who has lived in Russia,  as a Russian, for most of his life... until February 24... recounts his neighbors and co workers attitudes before the war and and now.  About a 15 minute read...

https://quillette.com/2022/04/16/casualties-of-war/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 28, 2022, 07:39:25 AM
This site provides daily intelligence updates of the military situation in Ukraine by unbiased experts... Below is a small sample...  click the link... there is much more...

Apparently Russian forces are rounding up civilians for future "prisoner exchanges "

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-27

Quote
April 27, 8pm ET

 

Russian forces made minor but steady advances both from Izyum and in continued assaults along the line of contact in eastern Ukraine on April 27. Russian forces took several small towns directly west of Izyum in the past 24 hours. While this line of advance takes Russian forces away from their main objective of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts, they likely intend to outflank Ukrainian defensive positions on the highways to Barvinkove and Slovyansk. Russian forces made several small advances in eastern Ukraine; Russia’s increasing concentration of artillery assets is likely enabling these tactical advances. Russian forces are advancing methodically in several sectors but have achieved no notable breakthroughs. The capability of Russian forces to encircle large groups of Ukrainian forces remains in doubt.

The Kremlin continued to prepare for a likely false-flag missile attack against the Moldovan territory of Transnistria, which is illegally occupied by Russian forces. Russian proxies in Transnistria falsely claimed Ukrainian forces are preparing to attack Transnistria, and Ukrainian intelligence reported Russian forces are preparing to conduct a missile strike on Transnistria and blame Ukraine. Russian and Transnistrian forces also increased their readiness for possible operations in the last 24 hours. Russia may intend to involve Transnistria in the war in Ukraine to utilize Transnistria’s (limited) reserve forces or to launch attacks and shell Ukraine from Transnistrian territory. The Kremlin may alternatively seek to destabilize Moldova itself to raise tensions in Moldova and neighboring Romania and put additional pressure on NATO, possibly seeking to reduce Western military support to Ukraine either by diverting NATO forces to Romania or threatening a wider escalation.

Russian forces are stepping up “filtration measures” in occupied territories and abducting Ukrainian citizens, likely for use in future prisoner exchanges. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on April 27 that Russian forces are conducting large-scale “filtration measures” in Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk Oblasts.[1] The “filtration” targets men of military age, former military and law enforcement personnel, and pro-Ukrainian activists for interrogation, torture, and possible execution. The GUR reported Russian forces are additionally shipping Ukrainian hostages to Crimea to “replenish the exchange fund,” seeking to exchange Ukrainian civilians for Russian military prisoners in future prisoner swaps. The GUR additionally speculated that Russian forces may be preparing to use Ukrainian civilians to portray Prisoners of War in May 9th Victory Day celebrations, noting that Russian forces conducted similar propaganda efforts in Donetsk in 2014.

Ukrainian forces likely conducted drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh on April 27. Russian sources and social media reported multiple explosions early on April 27, which Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak later euphemistically confirmed were Ukrainian strikes, stating Russian cities cannot “sit out” the invasion of Ukraine and “the disarmament of the Belgorod-Voronezh warehouses is a natural process.”[2] Ukrainian forces will likely conduct further cross-border strikes to disrupt Russian logistics, which the Kremlin will likely falsely frame as an escalation or somehow a war crime.

Key Takeaways

Concentrated artillery is likely enabling limited Russian advances in eastern Ukraine, though Russian forces continue to struggle to break through prepared Ukrainian defenses.
Russian forces funneled additional reinforcements and tactical missile units into the Izyum front and made minor advances. Russian forces are likely attempting to bypass Ukrainian forces on the road to Barvinkove by advancing directly west before pivoting southwards in the coming days.
Heavy Russian bombardment and continued assaults failed to make headway against Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol’s Azovstal plant, even as Russian forces reportedly prepared to stage a press tour in the occupied areas of the city on April 28.
Russian forces around Kherson are likely preparing for a renewed push to capture the entirety of Kherson Oblast in the coming days but Ukrainian counterattacks continue to disrupt Russian operations in the area.
Russian occupation forces continued preparations to announce the creation of a Russian proxy “Kherson People’s Republic” (KNR) amid widespread Ukrainian resistance.
The Kremlin may be preparing to either bring Transnistria into the war in Ukraine or destabilize Moldova itself to put additional pressure on NATO.

(https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/DraftUkraineCoTApril27%2C2022.png)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on April 29, 2022, 07:50:48 AM
Moldova is next country to be raped...

(https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Moldova%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20April%2028%2C2022.png)

Quote
Directorate (GUR) reported that Transnistria is preparing to fully staff its military units and increase their readiness.[20] Ukraine’s Operational Command “South” reported on April 27-28 that Russia is “systematically” conducting provocations in Transnistria and creating the false threat of an attack from Ukraine.[21] Transnistrian President Vadim Krasnoselsky ordered Transnistria’s Ministry of Internal Affairs to “be ready for any scenario” on April 28, but (likely falsely) denied Moldovan government reports that Transnistrian authorities are preventing men of fighting age from leaving the region.[22]
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 01, 2022, 05:38:23 PM
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/1/danish-fm-summons-russian-ambassador-over-airspace-breach
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 02, 2022, 07:05:23 AM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-1

Quote
May 1, 6:15 ET

Russian forces are setting conditions to establish permanent control over the areas of southern Ukraine they currently occupy, either as nominally independent “People’s Republics” or by annexing them to Russia. Russian sources reported that stores in occupied Melitopol and Volnovakha are beginning to transition to using the Russian ruble.[1] British Defense Intelligence reported that the ruble will be used in Kherson City starting on May 1 as part of a 4-month currency transition scheme enacted by the occupation administration.[2] These measures, which are not necessary or normal in military occupation administrations, indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin likely intends to retain control over these areas and that his ambitions are not confined to Donbas.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 02, 2022, 07:50:32 AM
(https://sites.breakingmedia.com/uploads/sites/3/2022/04/220427_FINAL_ukaine_aid_gfx.png)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on May 02, 2022, 10:38:51 AM
Pelosi visits Zelensky in Kyiv. At 82, she's got more balls than the entire Republican caucus.  Also like the fact she took Jason Crow. Former Army Ranger and a Democrat, out of Colorado. They have to put some fresh faces into public view. This guy could take on DSantis and would not be bullied around.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 02, 2022, 12:38:55 PM
Pelosi visits Zelensky in Kyiv. At 82, she's got more balls than the entire Republican caucus.  Also like the fact she took Jason Crow. Former Army Ranger and a Democrat, out of Colorado. They have to put some fresh faces into public view. This guy could take on DSantis and would not be bullied around.

Plenty of republicans have been there long before Nancy came tottering in for her camera time… glad she finally made it.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on May 02, 2022, 08:01:53 PM
Zoom calls don't count..

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/gop-senators-share-photos-zelensky-call-ukraine.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 03, 2022, 06:11:44 AM
Zoom calls don't count..

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/03/gop-senators-share-photos-zelensky-call-ukraine.html
Wow...  :o ::) :o ::)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/two-gop-lawmakers-become-first-us-officials-visit-ukraine-russias-inva-rcna24504

Quote
April 14, 2022, 10:06 PM EDT
By Zoë Richards
A pair of Republican lawmakers traveled to Kyiv on Thursday, making them the first U.S. officials known to have visited Ukraine since Russia invaded in late February.

Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, who shared photos of the trip, and Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana visited the Kyiv suburbs and mass graves in nearby Bucha. Daines said the world needed to see what Russian President Vladimir Putin had done....
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 04, 2022, 07:28:39 AM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-3

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 3
May 3, 2022 - Press ISW

Download the PDF
 

Kateryna Stepanenko, Karolina Hird, George Barros, and Frederick W. Kagan

May 3, 6:45 pm ET

Ukrainian officials reported with increasing confidence that the Kremlin will announce mobilization on May 9. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate Chief Kyrylo Budanov said on May 2 that the Kremlin has begun to prepare mobilization processes and personnel ahead of the expected May 9 announcement and has already carried out covert mobilization.[1] Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council said that high-ranking Russian officials are trying to legitimize a prolonged war effort as the Third World War against the West, rather than the "special military operation” against Ukraine, as Russian President Vladimir Putin has hitherto framed Russia’s invasion.[2] ISW has no independent confirmation of Russian preparations for mobilization.
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 06, 2022, 04:41:53 PM
Looks like Ukraine sunk another Russian warship…
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 07, 2022, 08:52:14 AM
Interesting graphic...

(https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFSExDs6XMAMDVkN.jpg%3Fname%3Dsmall)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 10, 2022, 06:03:32 PM
More interesting...

(https://nitter.net/pic/media%2FFSZuOdxXwAcb6uA.jpg%3Fname%3Dorig)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 12, 2022, 07:44:51 AM
https://thedebrief.org/abysmal-morale-and-poor-leadership-continue-to-torment-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/

Quote
ABYSMAL MORALE AND POOR LEADERSHIP CONTINUE TO TORMENT RUSSIA’S INVASION OF UKRAINE
TIM MCMILLAN. MAY 11, 2022

On Monday, a senior official from the U.S. Defense Department said Russia’s military continues to struggle with low morale, and Russian officers are now refusing to obey orders.

In a background briefing at the Pentagon, the senior official said anecdotal reports of poor morale among Russian troops and indications that some military officers are disobeying orders to move are likely key factors in Russia’s lack of success in its current campaign against Ukraine.

Cautioning that reports were anecdotal, the defense official said Russian leadership appeared to lack “sound command and control” on the battlefield.

“These are typically like, you know, mid-grade officers, you know, at various levels, even up to the battalion level where…some of these officers have either refused to obey orders or not obeying them with the same measure of alacrity that you would expect an officer to obey,” added the senior DoD official.

Shortly after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, poor morale exacerbated by fuel and food shortages led some Russian units to surrender without a fight when confronted by unexpectedly stiff Ukrainian opposition.

According to a Pentagon press briefing on March 1, intelligence indicated some Russian troops were even sabotaging their own vehicles to keep from going into combat.

Colonel Yury Medvedev, commander of the 37th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was reportedly killed when one of his soldiers ran over him with a tank late in March. According to Western intelligence officials and Ukrainian journalist Roman Tsymbaliuk, the soldier was disgruntled over the significant losses to the unit.

President Vladimir Putin dispatched Russia’s highest-ranking military officer and Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, to Ukraine in early May to change the course of Russia’s beleaguered offensive and boost troops’ dwindling willingness to fight.

However, shortly after General Gerasimov arrived, the Ukrainian military attacked a key Russian command center near the eastern city of Izyum, reportedly killing roughly 200 senior-level Russian troops, including Major General Andrei Simonov.

Unconfirmed reports have suggested that Gerasimov was wounded in the strike. However, citing a senior Ukrainian official, the New York Times reported Gerasimov was already returning to Russia when Ukrainian rockets hit the command post.

Gerasimov was notably missing at Russia’s big Victory Day parade on May 9. In past years, Gerasimov and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu were typically at Putin’s side for the large-scale celebrations of the 1945 victory over Nazi Germany in WW2.

The incident with Gerasimov almost being taken out in a Ukrainian missile strike and subsequent disappearance, have likely had the opposite intended affect on Russian troop morale.

Phone calls intercepted by Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) provide additional, behind-the-scenes insight into the abysmal morale problems as Russia struggles to continue its invasion.

In one recording, a Russian troop tells a fellow soldier that his regiment only has one tank left after nine others had been destroyed by Ukraine. The soldier urges his comrade to sabotage the lone remaining tank to prevent having to continue fighting.

“Fucking disassemble it and sell it for scrap metal. You’ll be safer, damn it.”

In another call, a Russian soldier describes how troops sabotage their own equipment and refuse to follow orders.

“Our guys pour sand into the fuel system, into the tanks, not to go on the offensive! I do not follow stupid orders. I just refuse,” the soldier tells his friend. “He wanted to send me against the bloody tanks, piece of shit! I just told him to go fuck himself, and that’s it.”

Intercepted phone calls also reveal Russian soldiers suffering from mental breakdowns and combat fatigue.

“Yesterday, we were calming down one Ensign. had to take the gun away from him. He says, ‘I’m fucking done!’ He’s shaking, damn it,” a soldier tells his wife. “We took his fucking gun away. Guys found him today, [and] gave him back the gun. Everything is fine. Fuck, the poor guy lost his mind.”

“Many more probably go nuts, don’t they,” ask the soldier’s wife.

“I was freaking out at first, but now, nothing can be done. It’s not in my power. You can refuse an order, but if you get the fuck out of here, damn it, they will open a criminal case against you. Desertion, damn it, you’re screwed.”

Expletive laden conversations offer glimpses of Russian soldiers’ morale issues and their dissatisfaction with insufficient supplies, poor leadership, and orders to commit war crimes can also be found in

“Our Colonel came, the one we had earlier, fuck. We ask him, ‘what the fuck should we do? We have no weapons, nothing,” a soldier complained. “He says ‘fucking shoot all the civilians.’ For fucks sake! How the fuck!”

“Holy shit,” replied a soldier on the other end of the phone.

“Our command, the commanders, they received provisions, like cigarettes and food, damn it. You know what they did?” the soldier added. “All our leadership fucking fled! They dumped us all and fucked off. We don’t even know where they are.”

The other soldier urges his colleague to just shoot his unit’s commanders if they ever find them. “”Just shoot them, for fucks sake, and that’s it.”

The Debrief cannot independently verify the authenticity of the recordings provided by SBU. However, conversations were consistent with other on-the-ground reports.

Just recently, Russian troops from the far east republic of Buryatia did get into a shootout with fellow Russian fighters of the Chechen Republic.  The gunbattle, reportedly involving upwards of 100 soldiers, erupted near the village of Kyselivka, in the Chornobaivka territory of the Russian-occupied Kherson region after the Buryat soldiers refused to continue fighting.

Troops refusing orders to move forward have evidently become such an issue that, according to Ukraine’s military intelligence agency, GUR, Chechen soldiers of Russia’s 141st Special Motorized Regiment operating in rear detachments have been tasked with shooting any Russian soldiers who try to retreat.

Confirming the claims, in another call intercepted by SBU, a Chechen soldier tells his wife not to worry because he’s operating behind the front lines in an “anti-retreat squad.”

“Our task is to chase back [to battle] those lousy soldiers when they start to scatter around after artillery strikes,” the Chechen soldier tells his wife.

Recorded calls reveal that some Russian troops have a relatively low opinion of the Chechen soldiers.

In one conversation, a Russian soldier mocks the Chechen fighters for filming videos of themselves and only being concerned with looting. In another call, a soldier tells his friend about how Chechen soldiers stole his gun.

“They came, as they said, to pray: ‘Let us in, bro, we’re friends, doing reconnaissance.’ I let them in, damn it. While he was praying, he swiped my PM [Makarov pistol]! They jumped in a car and fucking left.”

Assuredly not helping morale problems, the soldier complains about being made to dig trenches as punishment for losing his weapon and worries that he’ll be killed if he doesn’t find it. “And if I don’t find it, I’ll be killed! And they will write me off because ‘I’m missing,’ disappeared after a reconnaissance mission against the ‘Ukrops’ [Ukrainian defenders].”

“And this fucking Kadyrov unit, they’re just retarded, and that’s it,” a soldier tells his mother. 

In a reportedly intercepted text message shared by SBU, a Russian regimental commander fighting near Izium described how he tried shooting some of his “completely demoralized” soldiers after failing to “get them up morally or physically.”

When asked to describe the current status of Russia’s military campaign to seize the Donbas region, a senior Pentagon official replied, “I would not characterize it as successful, not at all. They really haven’t achieved any significant progress on the lines of access that they had anticipated achieving in the Northern Donbas.”

“They are being resisted very effectively by the Ukrainians. Incremental and somewhat anemic is how I would describe it so far.” 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 12, 2022, 08:04:49 AM
Video from drone

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1522525618432315393?t=paMmDk7CfY8FTrQZpEG3dA&s=19

Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: MusicMan on May 12, 2022, 09:24:43 AM
We need a coup in Russia. The Oli's need to take Putin into custody and pledge to each other they will not let him destroy the amazing lifestyles they enjoy. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 22, 2022, 08:22:39 AM
The siege of Severodonetsk is about to begin... Ukraine is exacting a heavy price but the Russians are gaining ground...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-21

(https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Severodonetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2021%2C2022.png)

Quote
Russian forces made gains in the Rubizhne-Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area and intensified efforts to capture Severodonetsk on May 21. Russian troops blew up a bridge across the Severskyi Donetsk River between Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, setting conditions to sever Ukrainian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) and take  Severodonetsk.[4] Pro-Russian milbloggers wrote about the beginning of the Battle of Severodonetsk on May 20 and claimed that Russian forces are closing in on the area from the north, east, and south.[5] The milbloggers emphasized the importance of disrupting Ukrainian GLOCs between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, which are facilitated by at least two major bridges across the Severskyi Donetsk River. Russian forces’ destruction of at least one of the two bridges between the two towns will likely hinder Ukrainian GLOCs to Severodonetsk and indicate a Russian effort to encircle the city.[6] Russian forces reportedly conducted attacks against several towns around Popasna, which may allow them to push northward toward Severodonetsk.[7] Russian claims about their gains around Popasna remain unconfirmed by open sources as of the time of this publication.[8]
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 28, 2022, 06:50:42 AM
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-27

Quote
May 27, 7:30pm ET

Russian forces began direct assaults on Severodonetsk on May 27 despite not yet having fully encircled the town. Russian forces have performed poorly in operations in built-up urban terrain throughout the war to date and are unlikely to be able to advance rapidly in Severodonetsk itself. Russian forces continue to make steady and incremental gains around the city but have not yet encircled the Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian forces continue to maintain defenses across eastern Ukraine and have slowed most Russian lines of advance. Russian forces will likely continue to make incremental advances and may succeed in encircling Severodonetsk in the coming days, but Russian operations around Izyum remain stalled and Russian forces will likely be unable to increase the pace of their advances.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces began direct assaults on built-up areas of Severodonetsk without having fully encircled the city and will likely struggle to take ground in the city itself.
Russian forces in Lyman appear to be dividing their efforts—attacking both southwest to support stalled forces in Izyum and southeast to advance on Siversk; they will likely struggle to accomplish either objective in the coming days.
Russian forces in Popasna seek to advance north to support the encirclement of Severodonestk rather than advancing west toward Bakhmut.
Positions northeast of Kharkiv City remain largely static, with no major attacks by either Russian or Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces continue to fortify their defensive positions along the southern axis and advance efforts to integrate the Kherson region into Russian economic and political structures. 

(https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Severodonetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20May%2027%2C2022.png)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 03, 2022, 07:48:52 AM
The battle for Severodonesk is essentially over with Ukrainian forces withdrawing to more defensible positions. The Russians have effectively captured the Luhansk Oblast but Ukrainian resistance is making them pay a heavy price...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2

(https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Severodonetsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20June%202%2C2022.png)
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 04, 2022, 08:31:44 AM
IS has added an interactive map .  It is zoomable, contains terrain and highway/roadway information... very detailed.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 06, 2022, 08:05:33 AM
Translated Russian and Ukrainian comments from military bloggers... interesting perspectives.

https://wartranslated.com/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 15, 2022, 03:53:48 PM
https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/high-casualties-russia-pulls-out-all-the-stops-to-find-fresh-troops-a-254bf9c2-c83b-4492-8dea-1f5cec53b03e
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 26, 2022, 03:32:33 AM
Severodonesk has fallen following a controlled withdrawal by Ukrainian forces...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-25
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on June 29, 2022, 07:39:24 AM
A Russian military blogger provides Russian perspective of Donbas area fighting...

https://wartranslated.com/igor-girkin-recaps-donbas-offensive-in-a-broadcast-with-former-russian-politician-28-june/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 06, 2022, 07:39:22 AM
Interesting political analysis of Russian goals in Ukraine after the fall of Luhansk oblast...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-5
Quote
Russia’s stated objectives in its invasion of Ukraine remain regime change in Kyiv and the truncation of the sovereignty of any Ukrainian state that survives the Russian attack despite Russian military setbacks and rhetoric hinting at a reduction in war aims following those defeats. Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev stated on July 5 that the Russian military operation in Ukraine will continue until Russia achieves its goals of protecting civilians from “genocide,” “denazifying” and demilitarizing Ukraine, and obliging Ukraine to be permanently neutral between Russia and NATO—almost exactly restating the goals Russian President Vladimir Putin announced in his February 24 speech justifying the war.[1] Putin had stated that the operation aimed to protect civilians from humiliation and genocide, demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, and prosecute genocidal perpetrators.[2] Patrushev’s explicit restatement of Putin‘s initial objectives, nearly five months later, strongly indicates that the Kremlin does not consider recent Russian gains in Luhansk Oblast sufficient to accomplish the initial goals of the "special operation,” supporting ISW’s ongoing assessment that the Kremlin has significant territorial aspirations beyond the Donbas. Patrushev’s statement suggests that Russian military leadership will continue to push for advances outside Donetsk and Luhansk blasts and that the Kremlin is preparing for a protracted war with the intention of taking much larger portions of Ukraine.[3]

Patrushev’s statement is noteworthy because of its timing and his position as a close confidante of Putin. Patrushev is very unlikely to stray far from Putin’s position in his public comments given his relationship with Putin and his role in the Kremlin. His restatement of virtually the same maximalist objectives that Putin laid out before the invasion even as Russian forces seemed to be closing in on the more limited objectives of securing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts—which Putin and other Russian leaders had hinted were their new aims following their defeats around Kyiv—strongly suggests that those hints did not reflect any actual change in Kremlin policy. Patrushev’s statement significantly increases the burden on those who suggest that some compromise ceasefire or even peace based on limited additional Russian territorial gains is possible, even if it were acceptable to Ukraine or desirable for the West (neither of which is the case).

Igor Girkin, a Russian nationalist and former commander of militants in the 2014 war in Donbas, responded to Patrushev’s statements and continued expressing his general disillusionment with the Kremlin’s official line on operations in Ukraine. Girkin said that the intended goals of “denazification” and “de-militarization” will only be possible with the total defeat of the Ukrainian military and the surrender of the Ukrainian government.[4] Girkin noted that Russian victory is premised on the capture of "Novorossiya”—a notional territory that encompasses eight Ukrainian oblasts, including the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and much of eastern and southern Ukraine. Girkin also claimed that the capture of “Novorossiya” is the bare minimum and that Russian goals will be realized through the total capture of “Malorossiya,” which is an invocation of the Russian imperial concept for almost all Ukrainian territory. Girkin is once again pushing back on the Kremlin line, which he views as insufficient in securing Russian objectives in Ukraine. Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) Ambassador to Russia Rodion Miroshnik similarly suggested that the Kremlin has not yet met its goals in Ukraine, despite reaching the borders of his claimed oblast, and stated that LNR authorities are still not confident in the security of the LNR.[5] Girkin and Miroshnik’s statements, taken together, indicate that Russian nationalists continue to push for further territorial gains and, at least in Girkin’s case, full-scale regime change and the incorporation of most of Ukraine into Russia. Patrushev’s statement suggests that Kremlin thinking may not be that far removed from these extremist nationalist ambitions. 
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 11, 2022, 04:42:41 PM
The recapture of Snake island by Ukrainian military has enabled 8 ships to enter Ukrainian ports to export grain previously blockaded by Russian forces...

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3526913-eight-foreign-ships-enter-ukrainian-ports-to-take-out-grain.html
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: jcjohnpaint on July 11, 2022, 07:47:21 PM
Great news
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on July 28, 2022, 07:49:53 AM
Interesting analysis from a UK think tank... 6 minute read.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/how-russias-narratives-ukraine-reflect-its-existential-crisis
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on August 01, 2022, 06:50:04 AM
https://thedebrief.org/search-underway-for-russian-soldier-filmed-castrating-murdering-ukrainian-pow/
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on August 02, 2022, 04:34:52 PM
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/07/20/russia-sends-army-recruits-to-fight-in-ukraine-after-just-days-of-training-a78314
Title: Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
Post by: BridgeTroll on August 12, 2022, 08:46:15 AM
Orlando Figes explores the role of Russian history in the Ukranian war... about 9 minute read.

https://quillette.com/2022/08/12/the-roads-not-taken/