The Jaxson

Jacksonville by Neighborhood => Downtown => Topic started by: heights unknown on April 28, 2021, 09:11:57 PM

Title: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on April 28, 2021, 09:11:57 PM
I know what y'all are thinking LOL; don't he have anything else better to do? Is he a population buff let alone skyscraper super tall maniac LOL. Well, listen guys; I just feel that Jax can be so much more and should have been light years ahead of other Florida Cities; however, thanks to lazy, "good ole boys backroom fraternities," lackadaisical no goods, and I could go on and on, we, Jacksonville Florida, have missed our calling and missed the mark by light years of being the super city that we should have been, and could be; and I know most of you agree.

Alright, here goes, and yeah, "Heights" has nothing else better to do at age 64 (soon to be 65), retired Military, U.S. Government...but hey, I still got a brain thank God, and though I am disabled (Veteran), I can still do the desk job thing, consult, analyze, THINK, etc. Hey, it's all good! Anyhoo, I've raised this topic, and asked this question before; what would Jax' population be, to the best as we can ascertain (by zip code is the best way), had consolidation never been born or had come to mind? Again, I know Jax would have annexed some areas and would have slowly gained population once again (lost population in 1960). And yes, I did that, to the best of my knowledge and know how. One thing for certain; had Jax not consolidated, we would not have gained much population at all within the old city boundaries...and again, I am sure those boundaries would have been extended moreso than in 1968. But let's go with the old city boundaries (to the best that we can do)... ok?

Before I go into what Jax population probably would have been in the old city boundaries had we not consolidated, here's some facts:

1) There is only a little over 5,000 people in zip code 32202 downtown Jax.

2) The most populous area or neighborhood is southwest Jax just west and southwest of NAS Jax in zip code 32210 with a population of 57,704.

3) Zip code 32212 NAS Jax came in with the smallest population of any area/neighborhood; however, remember NAS Jax is a Military/Navy Base and really shouldn't count. Outside of NAS Jax, or, if we don't count NAS Jax, downtown Jax is the smallest neighborhood/area of Jacksonville.

Remember, these are the old boundaries, as best and as close as I could ascertain or get it; many zip codes have been extended past the old boundaries.

One tidbit of good news; had Jax not consolidated and had stuck to its old city limit boundares, Jax' population would be around 320,000, making it the 3rd largest city in Florida behind Miami and Tampa, and slightly ahead of Orlando and ahead of St. Petersburg.

Now then...we all know, or it could be argued that if Jax had not consolidated, it would have annexed more areas, neighborhoods, etc. Therefore, it is possible that the population would be much bigger than 320,000; how big we really don't know, but I would estimate possibly around 400,000 or more, slight larger than Tampa, and possibly just breathing on the neck of Miami. We shall never know. We will only be able to guestimate.

IMO 320,000 sounds about right and looks about right. Jax' skyline is of a city of around 300,000, not 900,000 plus.

Jax behaves and acts like a city of much less population than 300,000, and certainly not of a city of close to a million people.

All of this being said...I love Jacksonville. I was born in Jax and lived in Jax as a child and numerous times throughout my life; Jax was my stomping grounds in my youth, and when I drive around, old memories well up of what was here, what was there, because many of those old buildings downtown and throughout Jax have been demolished/razed. History out of the window. I am ashamed of not only the current Mayor and his administration and other leaders in our government, but also past Mayors and administrations and leaders that did absolutely nothing to make Jax the top tier city that she has dreamed of being, wanted to be, yearned to be, and could have been!

In closing, I hope something breaks loose soon for my Jax because my time is running out on this dirtball; and, you all in this forum don't know it or don't see it yet, but your time is wrapping up as well...yes, you all are middle aged now, and you still have some juice and still have some time, but the way that our leaders work it in this City, most or all of us will never see Jax reach her full potential or materialize into the City that she should be and has always dreamed of being.

HEIGHTS UNKNOWN (Garry B. Coston)

OLD CITY BOUNDARY POPULATIONS BY ZIP CODE
32202 - Dowtown                                5,061
32204 - Riverside                                7,919
32205 - Westside                              29,831
32206 - Springfield/North/East           19,014
32207 - Southside/South Jax             36,124
32208 - Northside                             31,242
32209 - Northside                             34,983
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969
___________________________________
TOTAL                                            319,958
 :) ;)
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Charles Hunter on April 28, 2021, 10:17:02 PM
From this very forum, here are the pre-Consolidation city limits

1932 City Limits - also the 1968 boundaries
(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/photos/thumbs/lrg-6961-1937.jpg)



Your population estimates encompass too large an area.
Arlington was not part of the old city, in fact, none of the last few Zipcodes on your list were in the old city limits
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969

Total overcount 154,784, reducing your small-Jax population to 165,714

I don't know if all of 32207, 32208 or 32209, but I will grant them as being "in".
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: acme54321 on April 28, 2021, 10:43:19 PM
A lot of 32207 was not in the original city limits.  32207 is basically everything bound by University Ave and the St Johns/arlington Rivers.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on April 28, 2021, 10:46:08 PM
I'm pretty sure the preconsolidated city limits are closer to being under 100k than anywhere above 110k. It was around 100k with the 2010 census count.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: CityLife on April 29, 2021, 08:51:27 AM
Jacksonville is really only the 6th or 7th largest City in Florida.

Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and possibly St. Pete all have larger populations within close proximity of their downtowns. They just all have substantially smaller city limits than Jax. The three south Florida cities have more density outside of their municipal boundaries than Jax does anywhere within it's boundaries. 

Duval is also only the 7th largest county in the state (2019 estimates):

Miami Dade-2.7 million
Broward-1.9 million
Palm Beach-1.5 million
Hillsborough-1.4 million
Orange-1.4 million
Pinellas-975k
Duval-950k


Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: tufsu1 on April 29, 2021, 09:53:19 AM
^ yeah but likely to pass Pinellas very soon!!!
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: vicupstate on April 29, 2021, 10:20:31 AM
^ yeah but likely to pass Pinellas very soon!!!

Like maybe tomorrow, when the 2020 census figures drop. Pinellas is not much over 1/3 of the land area of Duval though.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Tacachale on April 29, 2021, 10:34:24 AM
Jacksonville is really only the 6th or 7th largest City in Florida.

Miami, Tampa, Orlando, Ft. Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, and possibly St. Pete all have larger populations within close proximity of their downtowns. They just all have substantially smaller city limits than Jax. The three south Florida cities have more density outside of their municipal boundaries than Jax does anywhere within it's boundaries. 

Duval is also only the 7th largest county in the state (2019 estimates):

Miami Dade-2.7 million
Broward-1.9 million
Palm Beach-1.5 million
Hillsborough-1.4 million
Orange-1.4 million
Pinellas-975k
Duval-950k

Counties or metro areas are the only way to compare. City limits don't mean much as most cities annexed additional land around the time Jax consolidated and since. But it is likely true that most of them have higher populations within a few miles of Downtown than Jax does at this point.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on April 29, 2021, 11:20:04 AM
They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Zac T on April 29, 2021, 12:20:04 PM
The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

 




Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on April 29, 2021, 12:27:58 PM
^That's good to see. It was in a rust belt like decline. Just masked by the population growth of suburban areas in a consolidated city.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: CityLife on April 29, 2021, 12:43:56 PM
They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale were originally developed in the early 20th Century. There are extensive urban development patterns in the eastern sections of Palm Beach and Broward. In WPB, virtually everything east of 95 from Lake Park to Delray Beach (about 25 miles north to south) is gridded and urban. You have a population of roughly 300-400k people (probably 500-600k with seasonal residents included) in a 100 or so square mile area. In Broward, most areas east of 95 area are also densely populated from Deerfield to Hallandale Beach. If Fort Lauderdale included Hollywood, Oakland Park, Pompano and some of the other densely populated areas adjacent to it, it would have an urban population of 500k+.

Like Jax's urban core, the areas in the eastern portions of Broward and Palm Beach can accommodate a lot more population. Both are seeing a ton of infill growth happening and I wouldn't say they are only sprawl. Certainly nothing like the type of sprawl and leapfrog development you see in Jacksonville.

It would be interesting to see an overlay of the densely populated portions of South Florida over a map of Jacksonville.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: CityLife on April 29, 2021, 12:48:43 PM
The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

Nice research!

Gentrification often reduces population density. In places like Springfield, there are countless old rooming houses or multi-family units that now operate as single family homes. Or in Riverside/Avondale, working class families with multiple kids have been replaced by Sinks and Dinks.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on April 29, 2021, 01:12:40 PM
They all do from a population density perspective. But most are more autocentric than Jax's urban core. Jax has an old school urban core built for two or three times the amount of people living in it today. Outside of Miami and Tampa, those other places are largely mid to late 20th century sprawl.

West Palm Beach and Fort Lauderdale were originally developed in the early 20th Century. There are extensive urban development patterns in the eastern sections of Palm Beach and Broward. In WPB, virtually everything east of 95 from Lake Park to Delray Beach (about 25 miles north to south) is gridded and urban. You have a population of roughly 300-400k people (probably 500-600k with seasonal residents included) in a 100 or so square mile area. In Broward, most areas east of 95 area are also densely populated from Deerfield to Hallandale Beach. If Fort Lauderdale included Hollywood, Oakland Park, Pompano and some of the other densely populated areas adjacent to it, it would have an urban population of 500k+.

Like Jax's urban core, the areas in the eastern portions of Broward and Palm Beach can accommodate a lot more population. Both are seeing a ton of infill growth happening and I wouldn't say they are only sprawl. Certainly nothing like the type of sprawl and leapfrog development you see in Jacksonville.

It would be interesting to see an overlay of the densely populated portions of South Florida over a map of Jacksonville.

All of those cities were pretty small in comparison prior to 1950, when Jax was still a 30 square mile city. While much denser today, due to the Everglades limiting the potential of leap frog development, the development pattern down there has traditionally been a much denser form of post WW2 era autocentric growth.

1900
Jacksonville - 28,429
Orlando - 2,481
St. Petersburg - 1,575
Fort Lauderdale - 336
West Palm Beach - 564
Lakeland - 1,180


1930
Jacksonville - 129,549
Orlando - 27,330
St. Petersburg - 40,425
Fort Lauderdale - 8,668
West Palm Beach - 26,610
Lakeland - 18,554


1950
Jacksonville - 204,275
Orlando - 52,367
St. Petersburg - 96,738
Fort Lauderdale - 36,328
West Palm Beach - 43,162
Lakeland - 30,851


1960
Jacksonville - 201,030
Orlando - 88,135
St. Petersburg - 181,298
Fort Lauderdale - 83,648
West Palm Beach - 56,208
Lakeland - 41,350

Over the last 30 years or so (primarily the last two urban development booms of the 21st century that the urban core of Jax somehow failed to take advantage of) has more of the major walkable development began to cluster in various areas throughout Eastern Palm Beach and Broward. Nevertheless, they largely missed that pre WW2 form of development and sense of place that you'll still come across in cities that had a compact +100k residents before WW2.

This would include several things we don't really think much about, like various architectural styles that were dominant in the late 19th and early 20th century or even dense concentration and early 20th century industrial development (ex. there are no similar scaled examples of the Ford Assembly Plant or Union Terminal Warehouse) in these places . The cores of Tampa and Miami have it, but it falls off quickly with the majority of Florida's other cities with a population above 100,000. Jax also has it, despite having a Detroit/Cleveland/Flint/Youngstown type fall from grace after 1950. It's an amenity that Jax should save what's left and rebuild around. It's not a fault of these communities and doesn't mean that they aren't denser and larger than Jax today. Just an observation that comes with post WW2 development patterns.

Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on April 29, 2021, 04:48:06 PM
From this very forum, here are the pre-Consolidation city limits

1932 City Limits - also the 1968 boundaries
(http://www.metrojacksonville.com/photos/thumbs/lrg-6961-1937.jpg)



Your population estimates encompass too large an area.
Arlington was not part of the old city, in fact, none of the last few Zipcodes on your list were in the old city limits
32210 - Southwest Jax                      57,704
32211 - Arlington/East Jax                33,771
32212 - NAS Jacksonville                    2,756
32244 - Southwest                           45,584
32254 - Westside                             14,969

Total overcount 154,784, reducing your small-Jax population to 165,714

I don't know if all of 32207, 32208 or 32209, but I will grant them as being "in".
Could be Charles. I was taking into account a lot of the old boundary being extended into today's zip code areas which I think have been extended since 1968. If we had stuck to the old boundaries (as I mentioned), with no annexation or "give" so to speak, your count probably would be correct and on mark.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on April 29, 2021, 05:05:11 PM
The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again

 





Agree wholeheartedly Charles taking into account IF Jax had stuck to the old city limit boundaries...then yes, a city of around 100,000 (Gary Indiana). However, I do believe that Jax, had it not consolidated, would have annexed more areas, neighborhoods, etc., gobbling up quite a bit to field a population of close to 300,000. Jax probably would have absorbed and sopped up most of that sprawl to the south, east, and west of the urban core.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: vicupstate on April 30, 2021, 07:43:52 AM
One reason consolidation was pursued was because efforts to annex outlying areas had not been successful. Given the city population was in decline and the march to the (unincorporated) suburbs was well underway, I don't know why any outside neighborhoods would have agreed to annexation in the late '60's and '70's. 
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Tacachale on April 30, 2021, 09:06:51 AM
^I mean, those same suburbs voted for consolidation.But either way, without one of those solutions or something similar, the old city was screwed.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: fieldafm on April 30, 2021, 09:19:29 AM
Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on April 30, 2021, 09:28:26 AM
I get the impression Jax would have not expanded much. Sort of like what has played out in Miami, it was more likely that the city would maintain its size and many of the unincorporated suburbs would have become their own incorporated cities.

Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


LOL!
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: tufsu1 on April 30, 2021, 10:54:01 AM
Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: vicupstate on April 30, 2021, 11:00:22 AM
Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: jaxlongtimer on May 01, 2021, 01:29:28 AM
Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.

With the millions they are starting out with I wouldn't compare them to the typical "couple just starting out."  8)  That said, as a "young couple" with their means, I would put them on the ocean at Atlantic Beach for now.  Tom Coughlin lives there so they won't be the first Jags to make it their home.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on May 03, 2021, 10:34:53 PM
Hopefully, Duval County's population increased by at least two people last night.

Palm Beach may have a bunch of old money and Miami may have a bunch of international money, but we now have Trevor and Marissa Lawrence... so suck on that South Florida!


unless of course they buy in Nocatee or PVB :)

Not likely, they're a young couple just starting out. Just fresh out of the college dorm. Maybe in a few years if they work hard and save their money.

With the millions they are starting out with I wouldn't compare them to the typical "couple just starting out."  8)  That said, as a "young couple" with their means, I would put them on the ocean at Atlantic Beach for now.  Tom Coughlin lives there so they won't be the first Jags to make it their home.
Tom Coughlin lives in Atlantic Beach? That's a new one on me...didn't know he lived in Jax. I don't care how hot headed he is, I really like that guy. He just couldn't adjust to how the NFL has changed. Trying to run it like the Military didn't work out and backfired on him. I hear he still has the foundation in Jax/Duval. I guess he couldn't stomach those brutal winters up north and opted for a much warmer climate in a town that he fell in love with (he does love Jax).
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: JPalmer on May 04, 2021, 09:23:31 AM
Tom Coughlin lives in Atlantic Beach? That's a new one on me...didn't know he lived in Jax. I don't care how hot headed he is, I really like that guy. He just couldn't adjust to how the NFL has changed. Trying to run it like the Military didn't work out and backfired on him. I hear he still has the foundation in Jax/Duval. I guess he couldn't stomach those brutal winters up north and opted for a much warmer climate in a town that he fell in love with (he does love Jax).
[/quote]

Plus his kids and grandkids have remained in the area.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: bl8jaxnative on May 05, 2021, 01:50:16 PM
The best way to estimate what the population would be in the pre-consolidated city limits would be to  go down to the census tract level which are much smaller and easier to find neighborhood trends.

Using the picture of the old city limits, I was able to find 32 census tracts that cover most of the historical boundaries of Jacksonville coming in at 29.87 square miles. I used the 2000 and 2010 census for accurate population data and the 2019 American Community Survey for current estimates. The 2020 census numbers will be coming out this year and should be more accurate.

Population - Density
2000 - 109,024 - 3,650/mi2
2010 - 101,202 - 3,388/mi2
2019 (est) - 101,805 - 3,408/mi2

And for fun:
1950 - 204,275 - 6,839/mi2

Looking at the yearly ACS estimates, it looks like the population bottomed out in 2015 at 97,567 and has been trending upward each year since. So after 65 years of continuous declines, it looks like the urban core may finally be growing again


Thanks for digging in.  Good stuff.

Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: bl8jaxnative on May 05, 2021, 01:51:59 PM

Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.


Maybe - Don't kow that for Sure.  If you still have that data handy would be nice to see households + the breakout fo rthe census tracts.  I'd imagine some like Durkeeville  shrank both in population + households.  Others like Riverside I'll bet maybe didn't grow in population but I'd venture added more households.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Zac T on May 05, 2021, 03:08:43 PM

Note --> The old jax neighborhoods as a whole have been growing.  It's just that the size of households was shrinking faster.


Maybe - Don't kow that for Sure.  If you still have that data handy would be nice to see households + the breakout fo rthe census tracts.  I'd imagine some like Durkeeville  shrank both in population + households.  Others like Riverside I'll bet maybe didn't grow in population but I'd venture added more households.

It's hard to find specific info from 2000 on households but looking at 2010-2019 trends, it looks like each neighborhood tells a different story.

Durkeeville lost a significant amount of people between 2000-2010 but has since been growing. This is despite a sizable decline in its housing stock. The average household increased from 2.3 to 2.6 people and the vacancy rate is around 24.5%.

Durkeeville
Population
2000 - 10,449
2010 - 8,671
2019 - 9,226

Occupied Housing Units
2010 - 3,746
2019 - 3,499

The Riverside numbers are skewed because it includes Brooklyn which has grown significantly so I looked at Avondale instead. Avondale saw a modest population decline in the 2000's and it's been stagnant in the 2010's. The overall number of housing units has slightly decreased while the number of occupied units has slightly increased. The number of people per household has held steady at 2 and the vacancy rate has decreased from 18.6% to 15.4%.

Avondale
Population
2000 - 10,624
2010 - 10,011
2019 - 10,018

Occupied Housing Units
2010 - 4,759
2019 - 4,888
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 05, 2021, 06:44:05 PM
Pretty cool analysis. Have you done any other tracts from the old city?
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Tacachale on May 05, 2021, 07:03:20 PM
Very cool, thanks for sharing. We should do an article based on this when the new census figures are out.

It's an interesting phenomenon where gentrification can cause a decline in population even though more houses are filled. This happened in my area in north San Marco. Houses that were formerly empty have been renovated but most people moving in have been single folks or childless couples. A house that had been an informal boarding house now has a lot less people than it did 8 years ago. The number of people on my block is the same if not lower.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Zac T on May 05, 2021, 10:58:25 PM
Pretty cool analysis. Have you done any other tracts from the old city?

Yes, I have the statistics for just about every neighborhood in the urban core and some surrounding areas if you're interested.

Very cool, thanks for sharing. We should do an article based on this when the new census figures are out.

It's an interesting phenomenon where gentrification can cause a decline in population even though more houses are filled. This happened in my area in north San Marco. Houses that were formerly empty have been renovated but most people moving in have been single folks or childless couples. A house that had been an informal boarding house now has a lot less people than it did 8 years ago. The number of people on my block is the same if not lower.

Springfield and Brentwood are good examples of this. Vacancy rates in both have fallen almost 10% but their populations are relatively stagnant.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 06, 2021, 08:42:00 AM
^Yes, I'd love to see them.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Zac T on May 07, 2021, 12:52:37 AM
^Yes, I'd love to see them.

Here's the 8 other neighborhoods immediately around Downtown.

San Marco                                 
Population                                   
2000 - 4,149     
2010 - 4,201     
2019 - 4,451  (3,648/mi2)   

Housing Units
2010 - 1,752
2019 - 1,746

The Southbank numbers tend to fluctuate yearly due to its housing stock being almost exclusively apartments.

Southbank
2000 - 1,907
2010 - 2,611
2019 - 2,786  (3,618/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 1,372
2019 - 1,699

Springfield
2000 - 4,798
2010 - 3,726
2019 - 3,672  (3,906/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 1,473
2019 - 1,575

Brentwood
2000 - 4,756
2010 - 3,840
2019 - 3,846  (4,370/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 1,377
2019 - 1,598

Murray Hill
2000 - 8,075
2010 - 7,127
2019 - 7,643  (5,271/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 3,205
2019 - 3,333

New Town is the densest traditional neighborhood in Jacksonville. The densest tract is a weird one that includes the senior apartments in the Cathedral District, the jail, and tiny parts of the Eastside and Springfield. It has almost 10k people per square mile although I'm almost certain it includes the inmate population.

New Town
2000 - 4,983
2010 - 4,147
2019 - 4,652 (5,347/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 1,689
2019 - 1,860

Riverside + Brooklyn
2000 - 5,477
2010 - 5,217
2019 - 6,275  (4,754/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 2,551
2019 - 3,454

The 2000 population figure for Downtown does not include LaVilla although I don't believe it would have greatly affected the numbers.

Downtown (Northbank + LaVilla)
2000 - 766
2010 - 2,284
2019 - 2,165  (1,705/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 915
2019 - 1,190

The Eastside's density numbers are so low because the port at Tallyrand and the sports complex are included in its boundaries.

Eastside
2000 - 3,576
2010 - 2,877
2019 - 2,643  (1,253/mi2)

Housing Units
2010 - 994
2019 - 863
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 07, 2021, 12:45:29 PM
Thanks for posting! It is interesting to see that the Northbank actually declined in population between 2010 and 2019. That was an epic boom period for traditional downtowns across the country. Pretty amazing to not have seen population growth and that small of an increase in housing units. It is also intriguing to see New Town turn the corner and start growing in population, while Springfield continues to decline in population. However, there's definite growth and redevelopment, suggesting that gentrification is in full effect there.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Steve on May 07, 2021, 02:00:30 PM
Do you attribute Springfield's decline with the fact that with a lot of renovations, they're taking a house that was in some cases built as a single family, converted to multi-family over the years, then recently being converted back to single family?

I'm surprised at the degree of the drop though.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 07, 2021, 02:26:12 PM
No, not really. I believe it has more to do with smaller households with higher income replacing larger households. I do wonder if that type of displacement is one of the reasons that New Town is growing again after decades of population loss.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on May 07, 2021, 09:27:29 PM
Do you attribute Springfield's decline with the fact that with a lot of renovations, they're taking a house that was in some cases built as a single family, converted to multi-family over the years, then recently being converted back to single family?

I'm surprised at the degree of the drop though.
Yeah, I thought, and had hoped that Springfield would have increased in population; I am rooting hard for a resurgence of people on the Northbank, Eastside, LaVilla, and Springfield...especially theser areas. I guess with renovation and returning many units to single family and the eradication of room rentals/boarding houses, that did add significantly to the decline.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: bl8jaxnative on May 10, 2021, 03:49:00 PM
Thank you Zach T.  Great stuff.


If you're interested in going back further, I'd love to see it.   I'd hypothesize that in most of these neighborhoods household size shrinkage has been the single biggest driving in their population declines since the 1960s.  Just a guess though.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 10, 2021, 05:12:11 PM
My guess would be urban renewal and destruction of dense neighborhoods like Brooklyn, LaVilla, East Jacksonville, Downtown, Hansontown, Sugar Hill and Eastside between 1950 and the 1990s would be the largest reason for the drop for the 30 square mile original city. At their height, the denser neighborhoods named would have been close to or above 10,000 people per square mile. They had large household sizes and were densely packed. After that, a reduction of household sizes is the sure fire culprit for the declines in recent decades.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: jaxlongtimer on May 10, 2021, 06:28:14 PM
My guess would be urban renewal and destruction of dense neighborhoods like Brooklyn, LaVilla, East Jacksonville, Downtown, Hansontown, Sugar Hill and Eastside between 1950 and the 1990s would be the largest reason for the drop for the 30 square mile original city. At their height, the denser neighborhoods named would have been close to or above 10,000 people per square mile. They had large household sizes and were densely packed. After that, a reduction of household sizes is the sure fire culprit for the declines in recent decades.

It would be interesting to study the correlation of density with social fabric metrics.  One might expect that increased density fosters increased public space interactions out of the necessity of sharing less space with others, especially if walkability scores are increased as a result.  In contrast, it seems to me that in our less dense and auto-centric suburbs today, many don't know or socialize with their neighbors in the same way.  Importantly, I think this pattern of reduced socialization is most impactful with our youth. 

With less socialization, one would expect more isolation, compartmentalization, less understanding of others, cooler to colder interactions due to a lack of personalizaton, etc.  Extending this thought, this might lead to more divisiveness, social friction and maybe crime not to mention a breakdown of community support systems, increased mental health issues, lower quality of life and shorter life spans (as socialization has been demonstrated to be a key to living longer).  We see many of these issues in our world today.

To be clear, there are sure to be many other contributing factors to the quality of the social fabric such as the use of technology to replace personal and direct interactions, income levels, discrimination, etc.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Tacachale on May 10, 2021, 08:28:19 PM
My guess would be urban renewal and destruction of dense neighborhoods like Brooklyn, LaVilla, East Jacksonville, Downtown, Hansontown, Sugar Hill and Eastside between 1950 and the 1990s would be the largest reason for the drop for the 30 square mile original city. At their height, the denser neighborhoods named would have been close to or above 10,000 people per square mile. They had large household sizes and were densely packed. After that, a reduction of household sizes is the sure fire culprit for the declines in recent decades.

One other thing that doesn’t get enough attention is that across most demographic groups, people on average are having kids later. That has an impact on the number of generations of a family alive at the same time, not to mention living together.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on May 18, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
I want someone, anyone to correct me if I am wrong, and/or tell me what you think, but when the city consolidated back in1968, THAT in and of itself (as selected by the voters), permanently eradicated the old city limits and city government, forever, and they no longer apply. So, we can deduce that the new city limits, which gobbles up and encompasses most of Duval County is now and forever the rule unless the city wants to go back and restructure/create "new" city limits and ask the voters to cancel consolidation and adopt new city limits for the City of Jacksonville. Just thinking...cause myself, and others (mostly me) are stuck on comparing what we were and what we now are, and bringing up the subject of Jax not being who it really should be (versus and comparing with the old city limits/core/urban areas, etc.). So I guess what we all should do is just accept the fact that Jax is a City of over 900,000 people, lacking and falling short in a lot of areas but very sparse in population, with weak and spread out density, and just hope that maybe some day before we all croak, the city overall and in general, in and of itself will "catch up" with the population; and that includes vibrancy downtown in the urban core, our skyline, and in general the whole city!
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: thelakelander on May 18, 2021, 01:16:34 PM
I look at Jax as being a county of over 900,000 people. When viewed that way, it looks pretty similar to most urban counties of similar size across the country. When viewed in the eyes of what a city of 900,000 is, if the definition of that is San Francisco which packs that number within a 47 square mile area, you'll always be disappointed. Jax was only a 30 square mile city of 200k with decent density prior to consolidation. So really it depends on what you believe a city of 900k should look like, then taking that example and seeing what the density of that city is. You'll likely find out that whatever example you use, is going to be significantly larger and denser than Jax, in terms of metropolitan and urban area population. On the other hand, do the same with the group of cities that were similar in size to Jax, prior to its countywide consolidation, and you'll discover that Jax has fared pretty well in comparison since the 1960s.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: bl8jaxnative on May 18, 2021, 01:56:41 PM
Here's how I would approach it which, in a way, it what Lakelander is saying.

Jacksonville is a young, powt-WWII sunbelt city.   

If you're eye is looking for dense jobs and dense population, you ain't gonna find it. 

And I'd argue you don't find it in most of it's peers of a similar size in 1950 --> Phoenix, Oklahoma City, Tampa, Tulsa, Nashville, Austin, Charlotte, Salt Lake City, Norfolk, et al.


BTW, As much as Jacksonville has grown, keep in mind it wasn't much smaller than Miami at that point.  Tampa and Nashville werew a little smaller.  Phoenix half it's size.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: heights unknown on May 19, 2021, 05:10:04 PM
I look at Jax as being a county of over 900,000 people. When viewed that way, it looks pretty similar to most urban counties of similar size across the country. When viewed in the eyes of what a city of 900,000 is, if the definition of that is San Francisco which packs that number within a 47 square mile area, you'll always be disappointed. Jax was only a 30 square mile city of 200k with decent density prior to consolidation. So really it depends on what you believe a city of 900k should look like, then taking that example and seeing what the density of that city is. You'll likely find out that whatever example you use, is going to be significantly larger and denser than Jax, in terms of metropolitan and urban area population. On the other hand, do the same with the group of cities that were similar in size to Jax, prior to its countywide consolidation, and you'll discover that Jax has fared pretty well in comparison since the 1960s.
Thank you Lakelander...well said; and...we do get disappointed if we look at Jax as a City of over 900,000 because it does not and probably never will live up to those expectations. It is a County of over 900,000; however, a lot of people don't know Jax and when they see that it is listed as a city of 900,000 people, and they visit or move there, they are sorely disappointed. Thanks Lake.
Title: Re: WHERE DOES JACKSONVILLE STAND, POPULATION WISE, WITHOUT CONSOLIDATION (OLD CITY)
Post by: Florida Power And Light on May 20, 2021, 09:07:29 PM
What if it was “ decided” that Jax population expansion promotion and accommodation was no longer efficacious....Then What?
Citizen’s Comp Plan, citizens role. Yank a former Thousand Friends Of Florida person that left 1,000 for a county planner position back on scene. Elevate review of Duval,Jacksonville adjacent county “ Planning “ and above all.... “ Consultants “  staff persons and role. A great volume of “ Non News”.
A formal education for the Citizens about current, future land use ( and Zone) directives, citizens legal role in deciding  on how the place feels and functions.
Finally.... growth is not “ inevitable”, City Hall can be “ Fought”.
A decided shift, awareness and empowered propensity to act.
Duval commands state public conservation land buy program,a focus on Duval County Conservation and Public lands initiative that threatens ( deservingly) South Florida Everglades “ Restoration” stack of cards.
We eventually name a big chunk of Duval public lands after two individual “ Carlucci “. A park bench named in honor of “ Preservation Jacksonville” figure.
Ha!!!.... that’s about the future, what we are experiencing now is “ Vested”. Done. Committed.
Good lesson.
We get the landscape and “ Quality of Life “ we deserve. And most Citizens with “ Standing” never stand up.