The Jaxson

Community => Politics => Topic started by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:42:41 PM

Title: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:42:41 PM
We had a thread like this in 2015, and it's most certain we'll be needing one this coming cycle.

Just to establish the facts, incumbent Mayor Lenny Curry is term limited, and can not run for a third term. That leaves the position open to whoever can garner the support of citizens to win it.

Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:48:50 PM
I'm getting word (https://twitter.com/melissainjax/status/1330152677595115521?s=21) of a first contender.

Dr. Richard Danford Jr., President of the Jacksonville Urban League and husband of District 1 Councilwoman Joyce Morgan reportedly announced (https://www.facebook.com/wlarry.williams/posts/10218623582322607) this morning that he would seek a bid for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023.

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on November 21, 2020, 06:26:24 PM
I'm pretty sure Daniel Davis will also be running for Mayor in 2023.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 06:34:08 PM
I've heard that rumor quite a few times. I'm sure he'll announce soon enough.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on November 21, 2020, 10:37:13 PM
Following past patterns, I would expect one or more council members to throw their hat in the ring.  Maybe a person or two from the corporate community.  Keep an eye on the Our Jax crowd too - I could see them sourcing someone of their ilk given their recent activism in civic goings-on.

Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.

You cite national and state Democratic candidates carrying Duval.  Problem for Dems is who, locally, among them has a solid county-wide foundation nowadays?  I assume Danford is a Dem so that's one.  Donna Deegan maybe.  Garrett Dennis to the chagrin of some? A past mayor, Alvin or Tommy, running again?  How about Godbold's right "hand", Chris Hand? Midyette who just ran a close county-wide race?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on November 21, 2020, 11:34:09 PM
^Yep, all of the above.

Daniel Davis is about as close to a lock as you can get.

And he's certain to be Khan and the Jags' preference. Next mayor will likely determine whether the Jags remain in Jacksonville or are sent packing and, for better or worse, I think Davis is a guy who will get stadium upgrades and a lease extension negotiated, even though I think it'll come at the expense of some developer-friendly deals on the other projects the Jags are pushing.

City Council wise, I know first-hand of one City Council member who's going to be announcing a bid by January, but based on comments from that Twitter thread that you linked to Marcus, there might be multiple.

And totally agree JaxLongTimer that it sure feels like OurJax might field a candidate as well. That group has been kicking up a lot of dust in the last year. PURE speculation my part, and it might just be wishful thinking, but I wonder if Audrey Moran might consider giving it a second go. I've always really liked her, and I think 2023 seems like her best opportunity yet.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 22, 2020, 01:08:22 AM
Now that there's actually evidence of the area being potentially competitive for Democrats, it really is anyone's game. I imagine Gillum's win here was too soon for anyone to take advantage of, plus a likely lack of a candidate prepared to go against Curry at the time. To top it off, his reelection was before the JEA scandal and everyone realizing that a blank check to JSO didn't solve crime.

To answer you jaxlongtimer, I can't say I know much about Danford, but seeing that he's been with the Urban League for nearly three decades, I imagine he'll have at least some support. That plus being Morgan's husband. Deegan definitely has a chance among Dem donors, but it's not clear what her support is among voters who are in Al Lawson's district that she'd almost certainly need to win. I think Dennis is a cool guy, but I don't know what his plan is to stand out in what looks to be a crowded field. Not to mention that no one on City Council has won in a long time. Brown I presume is paying for a job in Washington, Hazouri is getting up there in years and probably not up for it after the last council meeting. Hand… I don't know, obviously Delaney managed it but it's been a while since Delaney. Midyette could be an interesting entry, don't know if he has aspirations for Mayor though.

Ken: from what I hear, Davis is basically Curry's chosen successor. He's at JaxChamber now for a reason. I've made my case (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg507042.html#msg507042) for what should become of the Jaguars developments. I've heard about OurJax, and I think some of their people follow me on Twitter, but I don't know what their pull looks like in terms of gathering support. I can't say it'd be surprising if a number of Council members declare, but again, it's been a while since anyone on Council made it to the Mayor's office.

I'd be lying if I wasn't looking at some of these races with CityLife's (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg506948.html#msg506948) comment in mind. Obviously still doing well at UF and law school is a priority, but beyond that, you know…
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 14, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on January 15, 2021, 09:44:39 AM
Quote
Mayoral candidate Carlucci and tackling climate change

(https://photos.moderncities.com/photos/i-tF5KBRK/0/L/i-tF5KBRK-L.jpg)

Jacksonville City Councilman Matt Carlucci announced Thursday that he will be running for mayor in 2023 and he tells WJCT News that addressing climate change and sea level rise would be a priority for his administration.

Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/mayoral-candidate-carlucci-and-tackling-climate-change/
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on January 15, 2021, 10:18:23 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.


Great breakdown!

Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:

I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.

What's the story behind this?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fieldafm on January 15, 2021, 10:28:42 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.


Great breakdown!

Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:

I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.

What's the story behind this?

From my recollection, he was the person that led the charge to protect them with the National Register designation, and convinced Mayor Delaney and COJ to purchase the buildings (2001-2002 timeframe-ish) from an absentee owner that was literally blasting off the cornices as they were preparing to demo. A few years later, the police and fire pension fund was given the buildings in exchange for crediting the City's pension fund contribution for something like $3 or $4 million. The fund flipped the properties to Cameron Kuhn and booked the profit.

Carlucci also developed the historic trust fund, which helped pave the way for Vestcor's reuse of the Carling and 11East, and other projects. More info on Carlucci's recent efforts to strengthen the fund he helped give birth to:
https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/ (https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/)

Here is a picture of when said owner was demolishing the old Center Theater and Kay Jewelers buildings. In this picture you can see where he had already gutted the Florida Life Building in preparation for demo. Not long after these buildings were torn down, the owner started started blasting off the cornices at the top of Florida Life. You can still see the pieces that are missing if you stand on Laura Street and look up.  Steve Atkins (current owner) has the moldings for the cornices, and the plan is to recreate them when the buildings are redeveloped.

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603618_xgwStbv-L.jpg)

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603518_dxPrhFc-L.jpg)

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603367_Jj7GC56-L.jpg)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on January 15, 2021, 10:38:08 AM
If Carlucci had beaten Peyton, Jacksonville would be a very different city today.  As far as DT goes, Carlucci seems to 'get it' better than 90% of the city councilmen that have served since 2000. 
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on January 15, 2021, 10:47:42 AM
^FANTASTIC info and images, did not realize how close the Trio came to joining the causality list.

Much appreciated, Mike!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on January 15, 2021, 12:02:33 PM
The last time I spoke to Carlucci was a few months ago. He was pushing behind the scenes to make sure the JEA building is adaptively reused, once JEA moves out in two years.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 16, 2021, 08:26:34 PM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.

Question might be how much that matters for Davis. Was Curry recognized to general citizens before he snagged the primary? I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate. I wonder how his campaign is actually forming right now, in terms of getting ready to build a case to voters.

Like I said last year, the Democrats are going to be the more questionable race. The proof is now there that they can turnout county-wide more than once, but it's not clear how that plays into these off-cycle local races. Can they find a candidate who gets enough people out of bed?

In the long run, I wonder if there's any chance of a referendum to make these elections just part of the midterms instead of a few months after.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: tufsu1 on January 17, 2021, 07:14:59 PM
I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate.

That would be a repeat of Moran/Mullaney/Hogan in 2011.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 19, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
Matt Carlucci has formally filed (https://www.voterfocus.com/CampaignFinance/candidate_pr.php?op=cv&e=35&c=duval&ca=1039&rellevel=4&committee=N) for Mayor in 2023, the first candidate to do so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 09, 2021, 04:45:31 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on February 09, 2021, 06:44:36 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.

^ this. She'd be in competition with Davis more than Carlucci.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 09, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
There are plenty of moderate R’s who’d vote for her and she’s got a lot of time to differentiate and define herself, but yes, she’s much more in the lane of Dan Davis, Rory Diamond, etc. than to Carlucci. In fact I think even a harder right winger than those three would have a tough time consolidating the Trumpites (and what’s left of the Curry coalition) in competition with them, considering their records and reputations.

IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 10, 2021, 08:42:31 AM
To that point, that's likely Carlucci's biggest challenge. His goal will be to recruit votes from the moderates of both sides. The far left will pick the Democrat (assuming they actually run someone) and the far right will back either Davis/Cumber/Other.

To me this comes down to where is that dividing line on both sides of the aisle. The Unitary format of Jacksonville's elections gives Carlucci a chance; had this been a closed party primary system he's be totally SOL.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on February 10, 2021, 05:44:40 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 06:39:17 PM
JAXChamber President Daniel Davis has begun gearing up. $1.3 million (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1359644287064039429?s=21) into a PAC account just last month.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 06:50:36 PM
I know, I know, I’ve been beaten over the head by “Daniel Davis is going to run for Mayor” by seemingly half of town, I’m just reporting that it’s formally happening.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 07:18:02 PM
Some of Davis’s donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2021, 12:05:32 AM
Some of Davis’s donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)

This proves Davis is already bought and sold by developers and the Curry crowd (look for more donations from Khan/Rummell/Petway etc.).

I don't expect much overlap with voters for a Democrat.  Or Carlucci who I think will be more likely to split votes with a Democrat than his fellow right wing/Curry Republicans (not sure there remains many moderate Republicans after the party has been Trump-erized).  I hope Jax voters wise up and don't let big money buy this election again.  They need to learn from the Curry experience.

It will be interesting to see how Davis/Cumber/Diamond or others of their ilk that end up running and who shared "values" more often than not with Curry (see school board bond delays, Lot J, pension fund, JEA before it blew up, shared campaign managers, etc.) will be responding to opponent accusations of same and how the voters will react.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 11, 2021, 06:18:31 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: JeffreyS on February 11, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: urbanlibertarian on February 11, 2021, 09:52:13 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!

LPF would be more "liberating"!  ;-)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 11, 2021, 10:10:38 AM
Is it possible Davis isn't running and this is a PAC for Cumber?

I realize that every rumor I've heard is that Davis IS running. Just nonsense speculation maybe. They just seem like EXTREMELY similar candidates.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 11, 2021, 01:41:54 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 11, 2021, 09:37:28 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.

I'm a pretty middle of the road, consensus moderate from a (previously largely) Republican family. I was an NPA for 20 years until I switched to the Democratic Party last year. Two of my siblings switched from either NPA or the Republican Party. From what I can tell there are a lot of people like us among the new registrations.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 11, 2021, 09:43:56 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.

Local Dems are at a huge fiscal and organizational disadvantage compared to the GOP. I don't think they (we) are anywhere close to par, but the demographic trends are in our favor, and Alvin Brown proved ten years ago that when conditions are right, voters and donors can swing for a Dem.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 11, 2021, 11:29:39 PM
^Of course, although perhaps there's a chance for more support here going forward in hopes of making up somewhat for the losses down south, I don't know. The demographics should definitely work in our favor, assuming there aren't too many people latching onto the Curry train for crumbs like Lot J and the JEA proceeds. But good lord, we need candidates. At this rate, if no one steps up against Davis/Cumber/whoever this cycle I might have to come back after law school and give it a shot myself…  ::)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 12, 2021, 08:34:36 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
It certainly is a concern... my former party has lurched way too far to the right to include my participation.  I see the same happening to democrats... a slow but inexorable slide to the left which also leaves me out of that group. Not having a party or affiliation is liberating... as I can watch disgusted by their a antics from afar...  8)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 11:27:46 AM
There's an article about Davis (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/02/11/daniel-davis-raises-1-3-million-political-committee-january/6715036002/) in the Times-Union.

Quote
JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis, who is often talked about in Jacksonville political circles as a possible candidate for mayor in 2023, raked in $1.3 million in January for a political committee that could fuel a high-powered race if he does launch a campaign.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 08:54:54 PM
This is probably, almost certainly (https://twitter.com/kingobi/status/1360350996602490881?s=21) a joke, but local lawyer and former Biden campaign staffer Obi Umunna (https://www.ulegalgroup.com/the-firm/) may be lightly testing the waters to consider a run for Mayor of Jacksonville. If he were to seriously launch a bid, he would be the first Democrat to do so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on February 12, 2021, 09:23:02 PM
Nate Monroe weighs in on the mayoral race and concludes it is going to be hard for others to run against what may be a two man race between Carlucci and Davis given all the donors already committing, two years out:

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/)

Quote
....The 2023 race is already an almost $2 million campaign. The two Republicans have set a high bar for entry into the race, laid claim to most of the local donors willing to write big checks and seem poised to suck up most of the oxygen for the open seat (Florida Blue executive Darnell Smith, who had sometimes been discussed as a potential candidate, donated to Davis last month)....

And, herein is the problem with local elections - it only takes 24 people to stack the deck for a candidate!

Quote
....Indeed, Davis' massive fundraising haul is a testament to the power of a small number of business leaders to shape Jacksonville elections and a stark illustration of how little space is left for more candidates. It is his strength but also a weakness his opponents will seek to pierce.

Consider: $500,000, or about 38 percent, of Davis' January total came from just five donors who contributed $100,000 each. Include those who donated $50,000 and it adds up to $700,000 from nine people — or about 54 percent of the total. Add in donors who gave $25,000 each, and just 24 people contributed a little over $1 million, or about 82 percent of Davis' total.....

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

Quote
....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 10:10:24 PM
^So basically you could fill a small conference room with the number of people you need to buy an election. Peachy.

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

Quote
....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....

Problem is that voters have to show up to clamor for that change. An off-cycle election with the possibility of a Democrat even being on the ballot up in the air makes that incredibly difficult. I can't help but wonder, there's got to be some way of getting around the money problem to a degree that keeps them competitive. Having to hope the right rich people haven't already hitched their wagon to someone is clearly not working.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 02, 2021, 12:13:29 PM
Matt Carlucci has reportedly (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1366791519450128388?s=21) raised $400k for a political committee on top of $72k donated directly to his campaign. From a fundraising standpoint, that puts him behind Davis, but perhaps not as far as one would fear. It'll of course depend on how he spends it.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 03, 2021, 07:12:35 PM
New article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/03/03/jacksonville-democrats-implode-just-time-2023-republicans-mayoral-race/6902372002/) by Nate Monroe on Democrats in disarray.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 03, 2021, 08:41:06 PM
^ The bottom line I take from Nate's latest article is that the few elected Democrats in town are more concerned with their own necks over the good of the City, thus limiting their collective advancement via their party.

I am not sure the GOP'ers are any better here - they just have access to more money to support image building campaigns to hide their lack of effectiveness on behalf of the average citizen (witness the last 6+ years under the current mayor and going years back with their control of the City Council).

This appears to mimic the politics most everywhere today:  Politicos who care more about their next election and to win at any cost vs. performing their civic duty to their constituents.  The most current, but certainly not only, example is the GOP'ers standing by Trump, even after January 6th.

In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem:  They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.

The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing.  Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 03, 2021, 10:18:16 PM
^ It really is strange, especially at a point where it appears that Democrats are in a better position than they were in 2015 from a standpoint of potential votes, yet the combination of funding challenges (a statewide problem, to be fair) and some fear of having to stake out a truly unique direction for the city has proved paralyzing.

I fully believe that if someone, anyone, took the lessons this thread has put together over the years and mounted a citywide campaign on the promise of rebuilding our city, they'd have a decent chance of winning. Yet somehow Democrats haven't found the guts to do so, now including a second attempt to ride the coattails of a Republican candidate and hope that they won't be shut out of the resulting administration.

Even as someone who studies and participates in this stuff, it really just bewilders me that no one ever suggests that perhaps the best way to gain and maintain power is to promise improvements to normal people's lives… and deliver on those promises, or at the very least make it clear what obstacles exist to delivering on them. Even if you do care about the next election, wouldn't the best way to secure that be saying you'll do good things and then doing those things? Did the decades-long endurance of the New Deal Coalition teach no one?

In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem:  They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.

The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing.  Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.

Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties, no doubt experience he carried from running the state GOP. Shame all he used it for was demolition and selling JEA.

I'd also suggest the need to ditch first past the post and move to ranked choice/instant runoffs. This two polarized parties thing clearly isn't working for us.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 03, 2021, 11:48:19 PM

Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties.


*held
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 04, 2021, 12:27:55 AM
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on March 04, 2021, 09:22:49 AM
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.

Curry used to have total control over City Council, and he lost that. He also lost the Our Jax contingent of the donor class as well as others who aren’t falling in line with his projects. He still has sway (he’s the mayor after all) but nothing like he had in his first term where everyone was terrified of opposing him.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 05, 2021, 12:42:12 PM
Those are fair points. He's definitely not untouchable like he was in 2015 or even 2019. I will stand by saying that the real determinant is going to be who wins in 2023 and/or whether JEA comes back for him.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 09, 2021, 08:02:58 PM
Update on Davis' fundraising: (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369452451221356548)

Quote from: Nate Monroe
Oh and once and future 2023 mayoral candidate @DanielDavisFL just hauled in another $305,519 in February (~$1.6 total so far for the unannounced candidate).
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 09, 2021, 09:58:24 PM
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 09, 2021, 10:17:03 PM
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.

Mike Hogan 2.0
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on March 09, 2021, 11:38:07 PM
It seems Ferraro would take more votes from Davis than from Carlucci.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 10, 2021, 12:53:33 PM
Davis has raised in 2021 over $1.6 million from just 94 donors (actually much less when you consolidate the affiliated companies and their executives/owners).  And Khan hasn't even chipped in yet.  Check out the current list yourself at:  https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe (https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe).  [If asked, the PAC name is " building a better economy" and the date range should include from 1/1/2021 to present.  The one for Carlucci is "next generation jax" which has raised $400K from 29 contributors.  As a declared candidate, he also has raised another $100+K in his campaign account.  See:  https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures (https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures)]

It's clear that Davis will be obligated first and foremost to the development/construction/real estate industry* and the usual power players in town - the same ones who supported Curry - making Davis = Curry 2.0.

It's sad to say politicos can still "buy" elected offices and shameful that voters typically elect the guy with the most money to spend on ads.  And, we complain about the quality of our representatives? 

*This is why disproportionate infrastructure dollars go to new development instead of existing areas like the NW quadrant.  And why this crowd receives favorable zoning decisions and generous incentives.  Just follow the money.  (And - applicable to all politics at all levels of government - we say pay-for-play/bribery is illegal in the US?  Who are we kidding?)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on March 10, 2021, 04:10:31 PM
Davis is definitely staking out the part of the donor class that supports Curry. His toughest job is going to be distinguishing himself from Curry and many of his unpopular decisions that Davis supported or assented to, such as the JEA sale fiasco and Lot J. That's easy pickings for his rivals.

It's even tougher as he has to do that without turning off Curry's money people. And it's tougher still when you have Ferraro potentially getting a part of the Republican base's hard right voters. That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on March 10, 2021, 05:06:52 PM

 That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.

Yes, look for a divisive cultural issue to be germinated, propagated and fumigated across the local landscape, to make everyone forget about how the ruling class has rooked the city at large for the last seven years.

 
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 10, 2021, 05:58:37 PM
Will be interesting to see what position Daniel Davis and the Chamber stake out on spending $380 million on the Skyway.  I see it as another Lot J with even more public push back (it's not nearly as sexy as the Jags).  Will be a real test of his fealty to Curry.  My guess is he/they will be silent, at best, if not supportive.  If so, will seal the deal that he is Curry 2.0 and his campaign could then be toast before it even gets going.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: tufsu1 on March 13, 2021, 10:36:28 PM
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 14, 2021, 12:43:46 PM
get excited for Al Ferraro!


Mike Hogan 2.0
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 24, 2021, 12:50:21 PM
Mayoral candidate Matt Carlucci has officially launched his website:

https://mattcarlucciformayor.com

It currently contains no specifics of his plans for the office.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Florida Power And Light on March 24, 2021, 08:30:57 PM
I remember his Dad, the Senator.

Engaged with the Senator through a Conservation organization.
I found that the Senator held enmity towards Florida Wildlife Federation John Jones.
Jones worked well with Conservatives in the Legislature, crafted the Conservation and Recreation Lands Act which produced Jennings State Forest, Gianna State Park and Wildlife Management Area in our region, among other projects and directives, including alert  to what at the tine, thirty years ago, seemed as if a “ Conspiracy “; Brannon Chaffee/ First Coast Outer Beltway.

The Senator sponsored legislating naming the Florida Panther as Florida’s State Animal.
A local boat ramp is named in honor of the Senator.

Fascinating to see the political sparks fly back then with the State Animal proceedings.
I believe there was jealousy between the Senator and the Federation leader, and perhaps the Senator was concerned with CARL empowering an alternative to some develop aspirations.

The Senator’ claimed he “ Told It Like It Is”

At one point, Redistricting was cause for the Senator’s district to include Clay County. The Senator’s response was: “ Over my dead body!”.
Well, Clay did become the Senator’s district, the Senator made amends by supporting Brannon/ Chaffe - a key component of the Outer Beltway.
Certain State Farm Agents were curious allies in promotion of Brannon Chaffee, close compatriots to some that made speculative land purchase upon the scaling back of the Florida Game & Fish Commission/ Trust For Public Lands Brannon Chaffee Mitigation Park.

All of this will likely prove of no interest in a local campaign. But no slack granted to Matt in Conservation and Environmental issues.
Interesting to witness Matt promote “ Resilience “ while defending future development in certain areas.



Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Captain Zissou on March 26, 2021, 10:38:33 AM
^This post of yours that I've seen and I found it both enjoyable and informative.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm assuming the alligator, but I'm curious to know what other animals were presented for the state animal.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on March 27, 2021, 08:06:25 AM
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Al Ferraro is my city councilman.  On two occasions I called his office with problems.  On both occasions I got no response.  I called an at-large councilman-Matt Carlucci and got an immediate response from Matt, an email, and action.  I will never vote for Al for anything.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: MusicMan on March 27, 2021, 10:32:32 AM
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

ON a related note I found the vaccination process administered at Gateway to be extremely professional and efficient.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on March 27, 2021, 04:46:18 PM
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

I agree. The Mask Mandate should stay until this pandemic is said to be under control by healthcare experts, not political hacks.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 28, 2021, 12:57:01 AM
It's especially ridiculous because we're so close! Everything we need to close the book on this pandemic is either already here or quickly approaching, we just need to commit to being done with it. By next month we could actually be at the point of two weeks to stop the spread, those two weeks being the time for everyone's vaccines to fully kick in. And then that's widely it, at least domestically.

Yes, there's still plenty to do in other countries, especially the Global South, and it's in our interest to help them out so a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't come back and bite us in the butt, but we really can do this! Now's not the time to stop running 10 meters from the finish line.