The Jaxson

Community => Politics => Topic started by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:42:41 PM

Title: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:42:41 PM
We had a thread like this in 2015, and it's most certain we'll be needing one this coming cycle.

Just to establish the facts, incumbent Mayor Lenny Curry is term limited, and can not run for a third term. That leaves the position open to whoever can garner the support of citizens to win it.

Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 05:48:50 PM
I'm getting word (https://twitter.com/melissainjax/status/1330152677595115521?s=21) of a first contender.

Dr. Richard Danford Jr., President of the Jacksonville Urban League and husband of District 1 Councilwoman Joyce Morgan reportedly announced (https://www.facebook.com/wlarry.williams/posts/10218623582322607) this morning that he would seek a bid for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023.

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on November 21, 2020, 06:26:24 PM
I'm pretty sure Daniel Davis will also be running for Mayor in 2023.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 21, 2020, 06:34:08 PM
I've heard that rumor quite a few times. I'm sure he'll announce soon enough.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on November 21, 2020, 10:37:13 PM
Following past patterns, I would expect one or more council members to throw their hat in the ring.  Maybe a person or two from the corporate community.  Keep an eye on the Our Jax crowd too - I could see them sourcing someone of their ilk given their recent activism in civic goings-on.

Duval County notably voted for Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, the first time it has done so in a presidential race since Jimmy Carter in 1976. It similarly supported Andrew Gillum's unsuccessful bid for Governor of Florida in 2018. Whether this trend continues to municipal elections is yet to be seen.

You cite national and state Democratic candidates carrying Duval.  Problem for Dems is who, locally, among them has a solid county-wide foundation nowadays?  I assume Danford is a Dem so that's one.  Donna Deegan maybe.  Garrett Dennis to the chagrin of some? A past mayor, Alvin or Tommy, running again?  How about Godbold's right "hand", Chris Hand? Midyette who just ran a close county-wide race?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on November 21, 2020, 11:34:09 PM
^Yep, all of the above.

Daniel Davis is about as close to a lock as you can get.

And he's certain to be Khan and the Jags' preference. Next mayor will likely determine whether the Jags remain in Jacksonville or are sent packing and, for better or worse, I think Davis is a guy who will get stadium upgrades and a lease extension negotiated, even though I think it'll come at the expense of some developer-friendly deals on the other projects the Jags are pushing.

City Council wise, I know first-hand of one City Council member who's going to be announcing a bid by January, but based on comments from that Twitter thread that you linked to Marcus, there might be multiple.

And totally agree JaxLongTimer that it sure feels like OurJax might field a candidate as well. That group has been kicking up a lot of dust in the last year. PURE speculation my part, and it might just be wishful thinking, but I wonder if Audrey Moran might consider giving it a second go. I've always really liked her, and I think 2023 seems like her best opportunity yet.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 22, 2020, 01:08:22 AM
Now that there's actually evidence of the area being potentially competitive for Democrats, it really is anyone's game. I imagine Gillum's win here was too soon for anyone to take advantage of, plus a likely lack of a candidate prepared to go against Curry at the time. To top it off, his reelection was before the JEA scandal and everyone realizing that a blank check to JSO didn't solve crime.

To answer you jaxlongtimer, I can't say I know much about Danford, but seeing that he's been with the Urban League for nearly three decades, I imagine he'll have at least some support. That plus being Morgan's husband. Deegan definitely has a chance among Dem donors, but it's not clear what her support is among voters who are in Al Lawson's district that she'd almost certainly need to win. I think Dennis is a cool guy, but I don't know what his plan is to stand out in what looks to be a crowded field. Not to mention that no one on City Council has won in a long time. Brown I presume is paying for a job in Washington, Hazouri is getting up there in years and probably not up for it after the last council meeting. Hand… I don't know, obviously Delaney managed it but it's been a while since Delaney. Midyette could be an interesting entry, don't know if he has aspirations for Mayor though.

Ken: from what I hear, Davis is basically Curry's chosen successor. He's at JaxChamber now for a reason. I've made my case (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg507042.html#msg507042) for what should become of the Jaguars developments. I've heard about OurJax, and I think some of their people follow me on Twitter, but I don't know what their pull looks like in terms of gathering support. I can't say it'd be surprising if a number of Council members declare, but again, it's been a while since anyone on Council made it to the Mayor's office.

I'd be lying if I wasn't looking at some of these races with CityLife's (https://www.metrojacksonville.com/forum/index.php/topic,35949.msg506948.html#msg506948) comment in mind. Obviously still doing well at UF and law school is a priority, but beyond that, you know…
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 14, 2021, 11:21:38 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on January 14, 2021, 11:48:43 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on January 15, 2021, 09:44:39 AM
Quote
Mayoral candidate Carlucci and tackling climate change

(https://photos.moderncities.com/photos/i-tF5KBRK/0/L/i-tF5KBRK-L.jpg)

Jacksonville City Councilman Matt Carlucci announced Thursday that he will be running for mayor in 2023 and he tells WJCT News that addressing climate change and sea level rise would be a priority for his administration.

Read More: https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/mayoral-candidate-carlucci-and-tackling-climate-change/
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on January 15, 2021, 10:18:23 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.


Great breakdown!

Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:

I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.

What's the story behind this?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fieldafm on January 15, 2021, 10:28:42 AM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.


Great breakdown!

Question for those who have been in Jax longer than I have:

I've heard several people almost single-handedly credit Matt Carlucci with "saving" the Laura Street Trio.

What's the story behind this?

From my recollection, he was the person that led the charge to protect them with the National Register designation, and convinced Mayor Delaney and COJ to purchase the buildings (2001-2002 timeframe-ish) from an absentee owner that was literally blasting off the cornices as they were preparing to demo. A few years later, the police and fire pension fund was given the buildings in exchange for crediting the City's pension fund contribution for something like $3 or $4 million. The fund flipped the properties to Cameron Kuhn and booked the profit.

Carlucci also developed the historic trust fund, which helped pave the way for Vestcor's reuse of the Carling and 11East, and other projects. More info on Carlucci's recent efforts to strengthen the fund he helped give birth to:
https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/ (https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/carlucci-seeks-to-replenish-downtown-preservation-trust/)

Here is a picture of when said owner was demolishing the old Center Theater and Kay Jewelers buildings. In this picture you can see where he had already gutted the Florida Life Building in preparation for demo. Not long after these buildings were torn down, the owner started started blasting off the cornices at the top of Florida Life. You can still see the pieces that are missing if you stand on Laura Street and look up.  Steve Atkins (current owner) has the moldings for the cornices, and the plan is to recreate them when the buildings are redeveloped.

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603618_xgwStbv-L.jpg)

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603518_dxPrhFc-L.jpg)

(https://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/3890603367_Jj7GC56-L.jpg)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on January 15, 2021, 10:38:08 AM
If Carlucci had beaten Peyton, Jacksonville would be a very different city today.  As far as DT goes, Carlucci seems to 'get it' better than 90% of the city councilmen that have served since 2000. 
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on January 15, 2021, 10:47:42 AM
^FANTASTIC info and images, did not realize how close the Trio came to joining the causality list.

Much appreciated, Mike!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on January 15, 2021, 12:02:33 PM
The last time I spoke to Carlucci was a few months ago. He was pushing behind the scenes to make sure the JEA building is adaptively reused, once JEA moves out in two years.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 16, 2021, 08:26:34 PM
City Council member Matt Carlucci (R, At-Large Group 4) has told (https://twitter.com/wjxtjimpiggott/status/1349745598539460612?s=21) Jim Piggott of News4Jax that he intends to run for Mayor of Jacksonville in 2023 on a platform of “open government.”

As of this post, he does not appear to have filed to run.

No surprise.  Carlucci ran before and lost because the votes were fractured too much among all the "moderates" running leaving the extremes to make the primary.  After the public response to his leadership in defeating Lot J, I think he would have some very good tail winds going into a mayoral race.

Carlucci's biggest challenge could be trying to avoid his last experience and working to discourage others from entering the race that could siphon off his votes again.

Our Jax was a big part of Lot J getting defeated.  They have a lot of heavy hitters and whoever they get behind will have a big head start.  If they rally around Carlucci, he should be able to put forth a formidable campaign.  In fact, I would move Carlucci to the front of the line if I were betting on the race, subject to the above comment about vote siphoning.

I can see Daniel Davis being portrayed as Curry's protege.  After JEA and Lot J, I don't think that's going to help his cause and it could be fatal to his campaign.  Davis may also be well known in the business community via the Chamber but I am not so sure many of the general citizenry are going to recognize him.  For being head of the Chamber, he has kept a much lower public profile than past Chamber CEO's, leaving it to Aundra Wallace and others to be more out front.  That could be a double edged sword.  No doubt, he won't have trouble raising lots of dollars from Chamber friends and Khan, but money might not be enough in the next round to win.

Question might be how much that matters for Davis. Was Curry recognized to general citizens before he snagged the primary? I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate. I wonder how his campaign is actually forming right now, in terms of getting ready to build a case to voters.

Like I said last year, the Democrats are going to be the more questionable race. The proof is now there that they can turnout county-wide more than once, but it's not clear how that plays into these off-cycle local races. Can they find a candidate who gets enough people out of bed?

In the long run, I wonder if there's any chance of a referendum to make these elections just part of the midterms instead of a few months after.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: tufsu1 on January 17, 2021, 07:14:59 PM
I could see the GOP end of the race consolidating to Carlucci vs Davis, with perhaps another entry from a Trump-wing candidate.

That would be a repeat of Moran/Mullaney/Hogan in 2011.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on January 19, 2021, 11:39:47 AM
Matt Carlucci has formally filed (https://www.voterfocus.com/CampaignFinance/candidate_pr.php?op=cv&e=35&c=duval&ca=1039&rellevel=4&committee=N) for Mayor in 2023, the first candidate to do so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 09, 2021, 01:38:29 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 09, 2021, 04:45:31 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on February 09, 2021, 06:44:36 PM
Passing on some discussion from political Twitter.

Some (https://twitter.com/jimmymidyette/status/1358948575569473539?s=21) believe Council member LeAnna Cumber (R, District 5) may be setting herself up for a mayoral run. With that comes concerns (https://twitter.com/aggancarski/status/1359172622173503488?s=21) that she and Carlucci could split moderate Republicans and open the field for a more conservative candidate to proceed to a runoff.

The question for Democrats remains their ability to generate turnout in an off-year, and find a candidate to lead the charge in doing so.

I saw that but don't see her in the same eyes as Carlucci. Carlucci clearly doesn't do things to placate the party and is well known for crossing party lines. He also doesn't really see eye to eye with Curry. Cumber on the other hand served on the Host Committee for the RNC here and based on votes is extremely in tune with how Curry votes.

^ this. She'd be in competition with Davis more than Carlucci.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 09, 2021, 11:12:19 PM
There are plenty of moderate R’s who’d vote for her and she’s got a lot of time to differentiate and define herself, but yes, she’s much more in the lane of Dan Davis, Rory Diamond, etc. than to Carlucci. In fact I think even a harder right winger than those three would have a tough time consolidating the Trumpites (and what’s left of the Curry coalition) in competition with them, considering their records and reputations.

IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 10, 2021, 08:42:31 AM
To that point, that's likely Carlucci's biggest challenge. His goal will be to recruit votes from the moderates of both sides. The far left will pick the Democrat (assuming they actually run someone) and the far right will back either Davis/Cumber/Other.

To me this comes down to where is that dividing line on both sides of the aisle. The Unitary format of Jacksonville's elections gives Carlucci a chance; had this been a closed party primary system he's be totally SOL.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 10, 2021, 05:00:51 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on February 10, 2021, 05:44:40 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 06:39:17 PM
JAXChamber President Daniel Davis has begun gearing up. $1.3 million (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1359644287064039429?s=21) into a PAC account just last month.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 06:50:36 PM
I know, I know, I’ve been beaten over the head by “Daniel Davis is going to run for Mayor” by seemingly half of town, I’m just reporting that it’s formally happening.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 10, 2021, 07:18:02 PM
Some of Davis’s donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on February 11, 2021, 12:05:32 AM
Some of Davis’s donors. (https://twitter.com/kevin_clair_jax/status/1359653841273294851?s=21)

This proves Davis is already bought and sold by developers and the Curry crowd (look for more donations from Khan/Rummell/Petway etc.).

I don't expect much overlap with voters for a Democrat.  Or Carlucci who I think will be more likely to split votes with a Democrat than his fellow right wing/Curry Republicans (not sure there remains many moderate Republicans after the party has been Trump-erized).  I hope Jax voters wise up and don't let big money buy this election again.  They need to learn from the Curry experience.

It will be interesting to see how Davis/Cumber/Diamond or others of their ilk that end up running and who shared "values" more often than not with Curry (see school board bond delays, Lot J, pension fund, JEA before it blew up, shared campaign managers, etc.) will be responding to opponent accusations of same and how the voters will react.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 11, 2021, 06:18:31 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: JeffreyS on February 11, 2021, 09:35:39 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: urbanlibertarian on February 11, 2021, 09:52:13 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card

Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
Congrats! Welcome to the fraternity.

Liberating!

LPF would be more "liberating"!  ;-)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on February 11, 2021, 10:10:38 AM
Is it possible Davis isn't running and this is a PAC for Cumber?

I realize that every rumor I've heard is that Davis IS running. Just nonsense speculation maybe. They just seem like EXTREMELY similar candidates.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 11, 2021, 01:41:54 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 11, 2021, 09:37:28 PM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.

I'm a pretty middle of the road, consensus moderate from a (previously largely) Republican family. I was an NPA for 20 years until I switched to the Democratic Party last year. Two of my siblings switched from either NPA or the Republican Party. From what I can tell there are a lot of people like us among the new registrations.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on February 11, 2021, 09:43:56 PM
IMO this comes down to who the Dems get to run. The Dem, if they don’t totally blow it, will likely make the primary.

Question for the ages right now. It remains unclear who, if anyone, will actually run as a Dem. Weird they didn't build up a bench of candidates after last time, but maybe it's a money thing. Hard to stay competitive when your opponents pocket millions from developers and you don't. And as has been said exhaustively here, they seem to have figured out turnout for Presidential and statewide elections, but it's unclear if that success has translated into local power.

Local Dems are at a huge fiscal and organizational disadvantage compared to the GOP. I don't think they (we) are anywhere close to par, but the demographic trends are in our favor, and Alvin Brown proved ten years ago that when conditions are right, voters and donors can swing for a Dem.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 11, 2021, 11:29:39 PM
^Of course, although perhaps there's a chance for more support here going forward in hopes of making up somewhat for the losses down south, I don't know. The demographics should definitely work in our favor, assuming there aren't too many people latching onto the Curry train for crumbs like Lot J and the JEA proceeds. But good lord, we need candidates. At this rate, if no one steps up against Davis/Cumber/whoever this cycle I might have to come back after law school and give it a shot myself…  ::)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on February 12, 2021, 08:34:36 AM
Happy to announce the delivery of my brand new NPA voter registration card
I worry if all the reasonable people exit the parties they will just become more extreme. Perhaps though that would be a good thing for breaking their stranglehold.
It certainly is a concern... my former party has lurched way too far to the right to include my participation.  I see the same happening to democrats... a slow but inexorable slide to the left which also leaves me out of that group. Not having a party or affiliation is liberating... as I can watch disgusted by their a antics from afar...  8)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 11:27:46 AM
There's an article about Davis (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/02/11/daniel-davis-raises-1-3-million-political-committee-january/6715036002/) in the Times-Union.

Quote
JAX Chamber President Daniel Davis, who is often talked about in Jacksonville political circles as a possible candidate for mayor in 2023, raked in $1.3 million in January for a political committee that could fuel a high-powered race if he does launch a campaign.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 08:54:54 PM
This is probably, almost certainly (https://twitter.com/kingobi/status/1360350996602490881?s=21) a joke, but local lawyer and former Biden campaign staffer Obi Umunna (https://www.ulegalgroup.com/the-firm/) may be lightly testing the waters to consider a run for Mayor of Jacksonville. If he were to seriously launch a bid, he would be the first Democrat to do so.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on February 12, 2021, 09:23:02 PM
Nate Monroe weighs in on the mayoral race and concludes it is going to be hard for others to run against what may be a two man race between Carlucci and Davis given all the donors already committing, two years out:

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/ (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/02/12/nate-monroe-23-jacksonville-mayoral-race-already-expensive/4437525001/)

Quote
....The 2023 race is already an almost $2 million campaign. The two Republicans have set a high bar for entry into the race, laid claim to most of the local donors willing to write big checks and seem poised to suck up most of the oxygen for the open seat (Florida Blue executive Darnell Smith, who had sometimes been discussed as a potential candidate, donated to Davis last month)....

And, herein is the problem with local elections - it only takes 24 people to stack the deck for a candidate!

Quote
....Indeed, Davis' massive fundraising haul is a testament to the power of a small number of business leaders to shape Jacksonville elections and a stark illustration of how little space is left for more candidates. It is his strength but also a weakness his opponents will seek to pierce.

Consider: $500,000, or about 38 percent, of Davis' January total came from just five donors who contributed $100,000 each. Include those who donated $50,000 and it adds up to $700,000 from nine people — or about 54 percent of the total. Add in donors who gave $25,000 each, and just 24 people contributed a little over $1 million, or about 82 percent of Davis' total.....

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

Quote
....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on February 12, 2021, 10:10:24 PM
^So basically you could fill a small conference room with the number of people you need to buy an election. Peachy.

And, as I noted in other posts, Monroe highlights the Achilles heal of Davis:

Quote
....His opponents will seek to use this against him by painting him as the Syndicate puppet and a de facto Curry third term in a local election cycle in which, they hope, voters will clamor instead for change....

Problem is that voters have to show up to clamor for that change. An off-cycle election with the possibility of a Democrat even being on the ballot up in the air makes that incredibly difficult. I can't help but wonder, there's got to be some way of getting around the money problem to a degree that keeps them competitive. Having to hope the right rich people haven't already hitched their wagon to someone is clearly not working.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 02, 2021, 12:13:29 PM
Matt Carlucci has reportedly (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1366791519450128388?s=21) raised $400k for a political committee on top of $72k donated directly to his campaign. From a fundraising standpoint, that puts him behind Davis, but perhaps not as far as one would fear. It'll of course depend on how he spends it.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 03, 2021, 07:12:35 PM
New article (https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/03/03/jacksonville-democrats-implode-just-time-2023-republicans-mayoral-race/6902372002/) by Nate Monroe on Democrats in disarray.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 03, 2021, 08:41:06 PM
^ The bottom line I take from Nate's latest article is that the few elected Democrats in town are more concerned with their own necks over the good of the City, thus limiting their collective advancement via their party.

I am not sure the GOP'ers are any better here - they just have access to more money to support image building campaigns to hide their lack of effectiveness on behalf of the average citizen (witness the last 6+ years under the current mayor and going years back with their control of the City Council).

This appears to mimic the politics most everywhere today:  Politicos who care more about their next election and to win at any cost vs. performing their civic duty to their constituents.  The most current, but certainly not only, example is the GOP'ers standing by Trump, even after January 6th.

In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem:  They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.

The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing.  Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 03, 2021, 10:18:16 PM
^ It really is strange, especially at a point where it appears that Democrats are in a better position than they were in 2015 from a standpoint of potential votes, yet the combination of funding challenges (a statewide problem, to be fair) and some fear of having to stake out a truly unique direction for the city has proved paralyzing.

I fully believe that if someone, anyone, took the lessons this thread has put together over the years and mounted a citywide campaign on the promise of rebuilding our city, they'd have a decent chance of winning. Yet somehow Democrats haven't found the guts to do so, now including a second attempt to ride the coattails of a Republican candidate and hope that they won't be shut out of the resulting administration.

Even as someone who studies and participates in this stuff, it really just bewilders me that no one ever suggests that perhaps the best way to gain and maintain power is to promise improvements to normal people's lives… and deliver on those promises, or at the very least make it clear what obstacles exist to delivering on them. Even if you do care about the next election, wouldn't the best way to secure that be saying you'll do good things and then doing those things? Did the decades-long endurance of the New Deal Coalition teach no one?

In some ways, the local, state and national GOP have the opposite problem:  They are TOO organized - around one person (i.e. a machine) who has too much control.

The root of all of this is gerrymandering and campaign financing.  Fix that and we might get better representation from both parties.

Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties, no doubt experience he carried from running the state GOP. Shame all he used it for was demolition and selling JEA.

I'd also suggest the need to ditch first past the post and move to ranked choice/instant runoffs. This two polarized parties thing clearly isn't working for us.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 03, 2021, 11:48:19 PM

Curry in particular seems to hold an awful lot of power over donors and elected officials of both parties.


*held
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 04, 2021, 12:27:55 AM
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on March 04, 2021, 09:22:49 AM
Lot J's failure doesn't necessarily mean the man behind the curtain has been struck down. Even JEA's failure to sell doesn't mean that. Arguably the real question is whether the donor network he built remains beholden to him and those of his choosing, particularly people like Daniel Davis. If Davis loses or Curry somehow catches charges for the JEA scandal, then it might be time to say the sun has set. Until then, he's down but not out.

Curry used to have total control over City Council, and he lost that. He also lost the Our Jax contingent of the donor class as well as others who aren’t falling in line with his projects. He still has sway (he’s the mayor after all) but nothing like he had in his first term where everyone was terrified of opposing him.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 05, 2021, 12:42:12 PM
Those are fair points. He's definitely not untouchable like he was in 2015 or even 2019. I will stand by saying that the real determinant is going to be who wins in 2023 and/or whether JEA comes back for him.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 09, 2021, 08:02:58 PM
Update on Davis' fundraising: (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369452451221356548)

Quote from: Nate Monroe
Oh and once and future 2023 mayoral candidate @DanielDavisFL just hauled in another $305,519 in February (~$1.6 total so far for the unannounced candidate).
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 09, 2021, 09:58:24 PM
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 09, 2021, 10:17:03 PM
There are reports (https://twitter.com/natemonroetu/status/1369462108757372930?s=21) that City Council member Al Ferraro (R, District 2) will announce a campaign for Mayor of Jacksonville this Saturday, March 13th.

Mike Hogan 2.0
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on March 09, 2021, 11:38:07 PM
It seems Ferraro would take more votes from Davis than from Carlucci.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 10, 2021, 12:53:33 PM
Davis has raised in 2021 over $1.6 million from just 94 donors (actually much less when you consolidate the affiliated companies and their executives/owners).  And Khan hasn't even chipped in yet.  Check out the current list yourself at:  https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe (https://dos.elections.myflorida.com/cgi-bin/contrib.exe).  [If asked, the PAC name is " building a better economy" and the date range should include from 1/1/2021 to present.  The one for Carlucci is "next generation jax" which has raised $400K from 29 contributors.  As a declared candidate, he also has raised another $100+K in his campaign account.  See:  https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures (https://www.duvalelections.com/Candidates-And-Committees/Search-Local-Contributions-And-Expenditures)]

It's clear that Davis will be obligated first and foremost to the development/construction/real estate industry* and the usual power players in town - the same ones who supported Curry - making Davis = Curry 2.0.

It's sad to say politicos can still "buy" elected offices and shameful that voters typically elect the guy with the most money to spend on ads.  And, we complain about the quality of our representatives? 

*This is why disproportionate infrastructure dollars go to new development instead of existing areas like the NW quadrant.  And why this crowd receives favorable zoning decisions and generous incentives.  Just follow the money.  (And - applicable to all politics at all levels of government - we say pay-for-play/bribery is illegal in the US?  Who are we kidding?)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on March 10, 2021, 04:10:31 PM
Davis is definitely staking out the part of the donor class that supports Curry. His toughest job is going to be distinguishing himself from Curry and many of his unpopular decisions that Davis supported or assented to, such as the JEA sale fiasco and Lot J. That's easy pickings for his rivals.

It's even tougher as he has to do that without turning off Curry's money people. And it's tougher still when you have Ferraro potentially getting a part of the Republican base's hard right voters. That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on March 10, 2021, 05:06:52 PM

 That said, you can do a hell of a lot with a couple million dollars in your pocket. And he's got plenty of time and resources to define himself.

Yes, look for a divisive cultural issue to be germinated, propagated and fumigated across the local landscape, to make everyone forget about how the ruling class has rooked the city at large for the last seven years.

 
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on March 10, 2021, 05:58:37 PM
Will be interesting to see what position Daniel Davis and the Chamber stake out on spending $380 million on the Skyway.  I see it as another Lot J with even more public push back (it's not nearly as sexy as the Jags).  Will be a real test of his fealty to Curry.  My guess is he/they will be silent, at best, if not supportive.  If so, will seal the deal that he is Curry 2.0 and his campaign could then be toast before it even gets going.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: tufsu1 on March 13, 2021, 10:36:28 PM
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on March 14, 2021, 12:43:46 PM
get excited for Al Ferraro!


Mike Hogan 2.0
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 24, 2021, 12:50:21 PM
Mayoral candidate Matt Carlucci has officially launched his website:

https://mattcarlucciformayor.com

It currently contains no specifics of his plans for the office.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Florida Power And Light on March 24, 2021, 08:30:57 PM
I remember his Dad, the Senator.

Engaged with the Senator through a Conservation organization.
I found that the Senator held enmity towards Florida Wildlife Federation John Jones.
Jones worked well with Conservatives in the Legislature, crafted the Conservation and Recreation Lands Act which produced Jennings State Forest, Gianna State Park and Wildlife Management Area in our region, among other projects and directives, including alert  to what at the tine, thirty years ago, seemed as if a “ Conspiracy “; Brannon Chaffee/ First Coast Outer Beltway.

The Senator sponsored legislating naming the Florida Panther as Florida’s State Animal.
A local boat ramp is named in honor of the Senator.

Fascinating to see the political sparks fly back then with the State Animal proceedings.
I believe there was jealousy between the Senator and the Federation leader, and perhaps the Senator was concerned with CARL empowering an alternative to some develop aspirations.

The Senator’ claimed he “ Told It Like It Is”

At one point, Redistricting was cause for the Senator’s district to include Clay County. The Senator’s response was: “ Over my dead body!”.
Well, Clay did become the Senator’s district, the Senator made amends by supporting Brannon/ Chaffe - a key component of the Outer Beltway.
Certain State Farm Agents were curious allies in promotion of Brannon Chaffee, close compatriots to some that made speculative land purchase upon the scaling back of the Florida Game & Fish Commission/ Trust For Public Lands Brannon Chaffee Mitigation Park.

All of this will likely prove of no interest in a local campaign. But no slack granted to Matt in Conservation and Environmental issues.
Interesting to witness Matt promote “ Resilience “ while defending future development in certain areas.



Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Captain Zissou on March 26, 2021, 10:38:33 AM
^This post of yours that I've seen and I found it both enjoyable and informative.  Thanks for sharing.  I'm assuming the alligator, but I'm curious to know what other animals were presented for the state animal.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on March 27, 2021, 08:06:25 AM
get excited for Al Ferraro!
Al Ferraro is my city councilman.  On two occasions I called his office with problems.  On both occasions I got no response.  I called an at-large councilman-Matt Carlucci and got an immediate response from Matt, an email, and action.  I will never vote for Al for anything.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: MusicMan on March 27, 2021, 10:32:32 AM
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

ON a related note I found the vaccination process administered at Gateway to be extremely professional and efficient.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on March 27, 2021, 04:46:18 PM
IMO Lenny Curry's decision to lift the mask mandate is a poor one. I believe he folded to pressure from Republicans in other areas as well as the guy in the truck with the large "Take Your Stupid Mask Off" sign. 

I agree. The Mask Mandate should stay until this pandemic is said to be under control by healthcare experts, not political hacks.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on March 28, 2021, 12:57:01 AM
It's especially ridiculous because we're so close! Everything we need to close the book on this pandemic is either already here or quickly approaching, we just need to commit to being done with it. By next month we could actually be at the point of two weeks to stop the spread, those two weeks being the time for everyone's vaccines to fully kick in. And then that's widely it, at least domestically.

Yes, there's still plenty to do in other countries, especially the Global South, and it's in our interest to help them out so a vaccine-resistant strain doesn't come back and bite us in the butt, but we really can do this! Now's not the time to stop running 10 meters from the finish line.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Zac T on May 18, 2021, 10:31:58 AM
2 years until election and the recent UNF poll shows Donna Deegan in first place with 19% support with Carlucci right behind at 18% although 20% of respondents chose the "someone else" option.

Does anyone know if Deegan is seriously considering a run for mayor?

Quote
Former newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.

A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on May 18, 2021, 11:31:08 AM
^^ More a measurement of name recognition than anything this early out.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on May 19, 2021, 11:38:37 PM
Here are all the results as reported at https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/ (https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430063-deegan-unf-poll/).  Interesting that Davis, Morgan, Cumber and Ferraro are near rock bottom.  Will be interesting to see how this impacts their fund raising abilities.  Also interesting that a moderate Republican and two Democrats top the list.  Maybe voting against the school and gas taxes and kissing up to Curry and Khan are not such popular positions after all.

Quote
Former newscaster and recent congressional candidate Donna Deegan may have new political life if the first poll of the 2023 Jacksonville mayoral race means anything this far out.

A survey of 1,263 registered voters from the University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab shows the Democrat is the choice of 19% of 1,263 registered voters in Duval County. That number, as well, resisted demographic divides: 19% of White voters and 18% of Black voters backed Deegan in the survey.

While not all observers are surprised that Deegan looks formidable in a first review of the field, the survey shows the power of name recognition and a durable brand.

Close behind is a declared candidate who is the leading fundraiser among filed mayoral hopefuls. Republican Matt Carlucci was the choice of 18% of those surveyed. Though his fundraising has slowed down, the veteran politico has roughly $700,000 on hand between his campaign account and his state-level political committee, Next Generation Jax.

Coming in third was a familiar face. Former Jacksonville Mayor Alvin Brown has 14% support in the poll. Brown, who was narrowly defeated in 2015’s reelection campaign, lost in a comeback attempt in 2018, a primary challenge to Rep. Al Lawson. But that wasn’t for lack of support in Jacksonville, where he defeated Lawson handily.

Notable in this poll: Brown was far and away the top choice of Black voters, with 35% backing him.

Other candidates and potential candidates were second tier, or worse, among respondents. This includes a number of established players in the local political scene.

Jacksonville Chamber of Commerce CEO Daniel Davis has raised more than $2 million in four months for his Building a Better Economy political committee pre-candidacy, but Duval County voters shrug. The Westside Republican is the pick of just 6% of those surveyed.

Respondents didn’t seem thrilled with the other Council members beside Carlucci on offer either.

Second-term Democrat Joyce Morgan, who was elected to the City Council after a long stint on a local morning news program, is rumored to be looking at a run, and as of now is backed by just 5% of those surveyed, and just 10% of the Black vote, behind Brown and Deegan.

Even worse news was to be found in the results for Council member Al Ferraro, a second-term Republican who has declared a run, and raised just under $35,000 in two months. He scored just 3% support.

That tied him with yet another Council Republican, LeAnna Cumber. Cumber is exploring a run for Mayor, sources familiar with her thinking have suggested. If she were to run, she would be a strong fundraiser and the only female Republican and Hispanic in the race. But she would start with a modest base.

UNF pollster Michael Binder knows it’s early and these numbers are dynamic.

“Although it’s still very far out from the election, it is interesting to see a relatively even split between Democrat Donna Deegan and Republican Matt Carlucci,” Binder commented. “It will be even more interesting to see how these numbers change over the next two years, as more candidates throw their hats into the ring.”

The poll was conducted by email between May 11 and May 16th.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on May 20, 2021, 12:00:55 AM
Like vicupstate says, this is basically a name recognition poll. Seeing how basically none of the people mentioned have articulated any real platform for Mayor, and only two have even declared they want the job, there's basically nothing for voters to have an opinion on other than, "oh yeah, I remember them." Deegan ran the highest-profile local race last year, so it's unsurprising that she's on top.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 11:40:17 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on May 20, 2021, 01:07:11 PM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 01:48:28 PM
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 01:59:45 PM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?

Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 02:03:34 PM
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)

She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 03:19:14 PM
I'm not so sure about Morgan's prospects, from what I've heard, outside of the western part of Arlington, her popularity in her district wanes.

Heh ... if both Deegan and Morgan run, it would be Channel 12 vs Channel 4 (pre-cable numbers)

She's an established African-American Democrat with a lot of name recognition even outside her council district. Dem voters would come home for someone of her stature, if left side of the field doesn't get too crowded.

You are probably right.  The folks I hear complaining about her appear to have a problem with the demographic changes in the western part of Arlington. Need to hope the progressive side of the ballot isn't too crowded.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: CityLife on May 20, 2021, 05:00:46 PM
Is there another large city in the country where two former newscasters would even be considered top candidates for Mayor? I know Joyce Morgan is a councilperson now, but she doesn't seem to be one of the stronger ones.

Let's take a look at what current mayors of major Florida cities did before their roles:

St. Pete-Lawyer turned City Councilman then State Congressman
Tampa-Former Police Chief
Miami-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Orlando-Lawyer turned State Senator
Fort Lauderdale-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
West Palm Beach-Lawyer turned City Commissioner
Tallahassee-MPA/MURP, governmental consultant turned County Commissioner
Sarasota-Lawyer turned City Councilor
Lakeland-Businessman
Pensacola-Businessman turned County Commissioner
Gainesville-Masters in Poli Sci turned City Commissioner

What do you see there? A lot of lawyers and all but one was a politician (or department head in the case of Tampa). Most of them rose from the ranks of their council. Transitioning from council allows them come into their mayoral terms with lots of institutional knowledge, understanding of processes, and a firm grasp on major initiatives and vision; as well as knowledge of strengths/weaknesses of the organization.

Jacksonville keeps electing people with absolutely zero experience working in local government, law, or politics; and then residents wonder why it's a horribly run city that doesn't come close to capitalizing on it's potential. The last three mayors have absolutely no experience in local government or law:

Lenny Curry-Accountant and former chair of Republican Party in Florida.

Alvin Brown-Got in with Bill Nelson and was gifted appointments to federal positions. Zero educational or work experience that would serve him in local government

John Peyton-No experience in local government and no educational background to prepare for it. Heavily backed by his family's influence.

Then our last two successful mayors:

John Delaney-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel, then Mayoral Chief of Staff.

Ed Austin-Lawyer, turned COJ General Counsel and State Attorney

Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor.

Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 20, 2021, 05:06:16 PM
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want  former newscasters or name recognition mayors?  Gimme local government participants...
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on May 20, 2021, 05:20:05 PM
Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 20, 2021, 05:33:39 PM
It's worth looking more at what people did while they were on City Council and in their previous careers, rather than what the careers were.

*Joyce Morgan: 30 years in TV journalism, two-term city council member.
*Donna Deegan: 30 years in TV journalism, founder of a charitable foundation
*Matt Carlucci: four-term city council member, former council president, and businessperson
*Daniel Davis: two-term city council member, former council president, two-term state representative, president of the Jax Chamber of Commerce
*Leanna Cumber: lawyer, one-term city council member
*Al Ferraro: businessman, two-term city council member

On paper these don't look terribly different from each other. But I doubt that Al Ferraro's years running a lawncare business really prepare him to be mayor of Florida's largest city government. And I don't believe Leanna Cumber's judgement is better than, say, Daniel Davis's just because she's a lawyer and he's not. Alvin Brown was not super successful as mayor, but would Mike Hogan with his years of experience have been a better pick? I don't think so. I'd look at *effective* government and/or leadership experience more than anything else.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: CityLife on May 20, 2021, 05:46:32 PM
My closing statement was "Jacksonville needs to get back to electing lawyers and/or people with experience on Council or local government for Mayor."

It pretty much goes without saying that means someone who was effective in said role...
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on May 20, 2021, 11:06:26 PM
Personally I'd be surprised if Morgan and Deegan don't talk and agree who should run. If they can unite behind one candidate early on and run a good campaign, either has a decent shot. Given the money advantage the GOP would be starting with, splitting their field seems risky. Don't know if the institutional structure to hash that out exists though.

In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on May 20, 2021, 11:09:58 PM
Just to get back to news, Curry pretty heavily winking at Davis:

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430896-jobs-davis/

Quote
“I think Daniel is a great executive and would be a great executive in whatever he decides to do next, if anything,” Curry told Florida Politics after the event. “I don’t want to speculate on what his plans are, but I think he’d be an excellent Mayor.”

And Cumber seemingly preparing to focus on… something.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/430799-leanna-cumber-abandons-jacksonville-city-council-leadership-bid/

Quote
“The last few weeks have reinforced my core beliefs on policy issues related to taxes and infrastructure priorities. I do not feel that taxing our residents should be the default policy position of elected officials. And every investment we make with our constituents’ money should be made wisely and not wasted on useless transportation systems like the Skyway,” Cumber said, referring to the proposal to earmark nearly a quarter-billion dollars for improvements to the Reagan-era urban rail circulator from the proposed doubling of the surtax to 12 cents a gallon.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: fsu813 on May 21, 2021, 06:52:25 AM
^Word. It's not encouraging for Davis, considering he's gotten over $2 million dollars from the donor class and had a long political career and he's still mostly unknown to voters, but there's time for this to change dramatically, especially with that much cash. My predictions:

  • Whoever the Democrats get is going to do well unless they split the vote too much like the Republicans appear to be
  • Ferraro, Cumber and Davis are going to be splitting same solid right voters, which isn't going to go well for Ferraro and Cumber and could be trouble for Davis in a crowded race.
  • As usual, Carlucci's a wildcard. He's got the benefit of a real public profile and record, plus far and away the second most money.
  • Carlucci and Insert Democratic Candidate will split the moderate and anti-syndicate vote.
  • Depending on the strength of the Democrat - I'd consider Deegan and Morgan both strong, but the list drops precipitously after that - they are likely to get into the runoff race against one of the Republicans and could well take the big prize.

I struggle to see a viable lane for Cumber.

She's not going to out Chamber Mr. Davis, out Tea Party Mr. Ferraro, or out Moderate Mr. Carlucci. What am I missing?

Yeah, that's a really hard row to hoe. She hasn't made it easier for herself by supporting Lot J and then voting against the gas tax. Too inconsistent to appeal to a base, while turning a lot of other people off.

From her latest comments, sounds like she's chosen the anti-tax/gov waste platform. Ferarro has very little money, easy to surpass that, but he has far more credibility in that lane.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: CityLife on May 21, 2021, 02:33:00 PM
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.

That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but let’s look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.

-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli Sci


As you can see, many of these mayors also come from prestigious academic programs.

NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor

I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: CityLife on May 21, 2021, 03:28:35 PM
To Marcus's point on someone from here running for Mayor next cycle. I'd like to see someone run for Council first...I think both Mike and Ennis would be great if they were interested. Though I think Ennis could get more accomplished in a Deputy Director type role at JTA or DIA. I'd also love to see KenFSU get on the DVI or DIA boards.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 21, 2021, 03:57:49 PM
In terms of capability, like Tacachale points out, having spent years in the system doesn't necessarily mean one would be better at things. At least to me, the question at this point is a matter of what one actually wants to do in this job for this city, and whether they actually have a vision for accomplishing that. That's the difference between someone who wants to be in charge, and someone who wants to make change.

Or urban planners who foster discussion among a diverse community of Jacksonville's problems and solutions.

I've mentioned before that it'd be interesting if someone from here gave something a shot. Maybe not this cycle, but the next? Could definitely be interesting.

That's great that you and Tacachale have your opinions, but I'm going to serve you a nice dose of facts here.

Let's look at the Mayors of major cities in America. Now clearly some of these are not successful in their roles (I'm looking at you Deblasio), but there is VERY clearly a trend nationally and statewide.

-The mayors of 18 of the 32 largest cities in the US are former City Councilors
-9 of the remaining 14 were former politicians in larger roles
-11 of the 32 have JD's (some with additional masters)
-11 of the 21 non JD's have Masters in Poli Sci, Public Policy, or Business Administration
-5 of the 10 non JD's/Masters have undergrad degrees in Poli Sci


Here is the list. As you can see, many of these mayors come from prestigious institutions.

NYC-Bachelor in urban studies from NYU, Masters in International Affairs from Columbia; former City Councilor
LA-Undergrad in policy sci and planning and masters in International Affairs from Columbia; Former City Council President
Chicago-undergrad Michigan, JD University of Chicago. lawyer, extensive experience working with Chicago city government
Houston-Harvard JD, lawyer, turned State Representative
Phoenix-Harvard undergrad, with MBA from Wharton; Former City Councilor
Philadelphia-Poli Sci major; 23 year City Councilor
San Antonio-U Penn Masters; former City Councilor
San Diego-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Dallas-Harvard undergrad, U Penn JD, MPA Princeton
San Jose-Georgetown undergrad in government, JD and Masters of Public Policy Harvard; former City Councilor
Austin-Undergrad Princeton Public and International Affairs. UT JD; general counsel Texas Senate
Indianapolis-IU JD; Secretary of State Indiana,
Jacksonville-Lenny Curry.....
Ft. Worth-tax assessor
Columbus-Poli Sci undergrad; former City Councilor
Charlotte-Poli Sci undergrad and MPA from UNC; budget director and assistant city manager, City Councilor
San Francisco-Undergrad Poli Sci and MPA; former City Councilor
Louisville-Vanderbilt economics degree; inventor, entrepenuer
Seattle-ND undergrad, UDub JD, US Attorney
Denver-undergrad Poli Sci, MPA; former City Councilor
DC-Masters in Public Policy, former City Councilor
Boston-Former City Councilor
Nashville-Harvard undergrad, Vanderbilt MBA; former City Councilor
El Paso-no college degree; car dealership owner
Detroit-BA and JD from Michigan; Deputy County Manager
Oklahoma City-JD; State Senator
Portland-Undergrad Stanford, MBA Columbia, MPP Harvard; County Commissioner
Vegas-Wife of long serving mayor
Memphis-JD, City Councilor
Baltimore-Poli Sci degree, City Councilor
Milwaukee-JD; US Congressman
Albuquerque-Notre Dame undergrad, Harvard MBA; state senator, state auditor
Tucson-Poli Sci undergrad; City Councilor

I don't have time to educate everyone on why governmental knowledge and experience is so vital, but hopefully the fact that virtually every major city in the US and state continues electing proven and experienced leaders is enough.

I don't really disagree with you, except that the current slate of mayoral candidates for Jacksonville don't look much different than that list. It is different from the last 3 mayors we've had, however, none of whom had any government experience and who have been decreasingly effective. But what does it mean for the upcoming election?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: CityLife on May 21, 2021, 04:32:37 PM
^The original point was that no other major city in America or Florida would have two former newscasters as mayoral frontrunners. Joyce Morgan has at least put the time in on Council, but Donna Deegan has no business being mentioned as a mayoral candidate, let alone front runner imo. She's a great woman and a Jacksonville treasure, but she doesn't have the first clue about how to run a large government.

I agree that Carlucci, Cumber, Morgan, and Davis all fit the bill as more traditional mayoral candidates, which is nice to see, but I don't see a rockstar candidate that will rally and unite everyone behind them. Cumber is still getting her feet wet as a councilwoman and doesn't have the name recognition or deep Jacksonville roots. I'm not sure Morgan has done enough on Council to excite anyone. Davis could be a great candidate, but he's going to be hurt by association with Curry. Carlucci seems solid and the best prospective mayor imo, but not sure he is a dynamic enough speaker/leader.

Really, I just think it's a disappointing group so far. Sadly, Jacksonville politics and government are so broken the people that could make the best politicians tend to want to stay out of the mud. It's not just a Jacksonville issue, but I think it's more pronounced there.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: JeffreyS on May 21, 2021, 09:22:29 PM
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want  former newscasters or name recognition mayors?  Gimme local government participants...
Degan at least has proven to be an engaged and accomplished Jacksonville native beyond her news career. She may not be your cup of tea but she shouldn’t be dismissed as just a name.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on May 21, 2021, 11:07:08 PM
Deegan put up a great campaign, albeit a longshot one, against John "Trump" Rutherford.  I think she should run for City Council first and hone her chops there.  What district would she be in?  Rory Diamond's?  Now that would be a fun race to watch.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on May 21, 2021, 11:21:09 PM
Yes - she is in Rory Diamond's district.  That would be an interesting race!
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on May 22, 2021, 06:59:20 AM
Interesting... I like the thought process. Do we really want  former newscasters or name recognition mayors?  Gimme local government participants...
Degan at least has proven to be an engaged and accomplished Jacksonville native beyond her news career. She may not be your cup of tea but she shouldn’t be dismissed as just a name.

Name and a face?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: JeffreyS on May 22, 2021, 09:12:52 AM
Deegan put up a great campaign, albeit a longshot one, against John "Trump" Rutherford.  I think she should run for City Council first and hone her chops there.  What district would she be in?  Rory Diamond's?  Now that would be a fun race to watch.
Not sure if she’s looking at local politics but watching her debate showed her competence and command of national issues.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on May 22, 2021, 11:21:52 AM
Yes - she is in Rory Diamond's district.  That would be an interesting race!

She could also run at large, which would give her a better chance than the heavily Republican Beaches district. But if she ran in 2023 she’d presumably be running against Ron Salem who’d be tough to beat.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on June 10, 2021, 08:37:49 PM
It appears supporters of Matt Carlucci are holding a Meet & Greet this Sunday.

The flyer on Carlucci's Twitter (https://twitter.com/matt_carlucci/status/1403145972004294656?s=21)
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on July 08, 2021, 04:41:49 PM
Over the last week, Donna Deegan has made some pretty serious moves in the direction of a bid for Mayor, establishing a political committee and making overtures of consideration for the job.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on July 08, 2021, 05:49:07 PM
I know Deegan lost 39-61 against Rutherford in 2020, but what was the result in the Duval portion of the district?  I would assume somewhat better than the district as a whole.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on July 08, 2021, 06:03:10 PM
From the Duval SOE website:
Rutherford 169,852 57%
Deegan     125,498 43%
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Tacachale on July 08, 2021, 06:54:15 PM
From the Duval SOE website:
Rutherford 169,852 57%
Deegan     125,498 43%

Wow. That’s the part of Duval gerrymandered to lean heavily Republican.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on July 08, 2021, 09:44:55 PM
Interestingly, I got an email from Donna this evening. She announced her Donna for Duval PAC, and included this, "I promised you I would stay involved and keep working – and that’s a promise I intend to keep. Right now, I’m looking seriously at how I might best serve our community next including a possible run for Mayor."  ... and, she asked for money.

Tacachale - as you said, she didn't do that badly in very Red precincts in Duval
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on July 08, 2021, 11:28:44 PM
Here is Nate Monroe's take on Donna Deegans's plans:

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/columns/nate-monroe/2021/07/07/donna-deegan-strongly-considering-jacksonville-mayoral-run-2023/7886832002/
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 09, 2021, 06:54:00 AM
It sounds like Donna Deegan is going to announce her campaign on Melissa Ross’ radio show at 9 this morning.

https://twitter.com/travisakers/status/1458036656485904384?s=21
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on November 09, 2021, 07:46:55 AM
Cool! Thanks for the update.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: marcuscnelson on November 09, 2021, 09:36:52 AM
It’s official.

https://www.donnaformayor.com/
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Captain Zissou on November 09, 2021, 09:44:59 AM
This is a blow to the Carlucci campaign as in the absence of a strong democratic candidate he would take a lot of the moderate democrat vote.  Davis will take the trumpers, Deegan will take the left, Matt is fighting for the middle, and Cumber gets a new bumper sticker for her Maserati (she still sports the sticker from her unopposed city council campaign).
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on November 09, 2021, 01:51:05 PM
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Snaketoz on November 10, 2021, 07:40:47 AM
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town.  He is the worst councilman I've ever had.  He would be a worse mayor.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on November 10, 2021, 09:08:05 AM
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Zac T on November 10, 2021, 11:12:39 AM
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?

If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: tufsu1 on November 10, 2021, 11:31:36 AM
I could easily accept Deegan or Carlucci, but Ferraro would make me consider leaving town.  He is the worst councilman I've ever had.  He would be a worse mayor.
I wouldn't worry about Ferraro. Can't imagine him being competitive in this one.

agreed - but Davis is quite likely
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Steve on November 10, 2021, 02:53:30 PM
Carlucci's mission is simple in concept: Get to the Runoff. I'm not sure how and what the numbers would make for this to happen, but if he gets to the runoff he will win:

 - If it's Carlucci and Davis, the Democrats aren't voting for Davis.
 - If it's Carlucci and Deegan, the Republicans aren't voting for Deegan

This is where the smaller candidates could make an impact. Ferraro may chip away at the Trump-style Republicans. Not in serious numbers, but could it pull from Davis a little? Same with Cumber. If they get (combined) 15% of the electorate, could that damage Davis enough that Carlucci can get by him in the First Election?

If Carlucci makes it to the runoff, what makes you so sure he would win vs Deegan? As much as republicans wouldn't vote for Deegan, I can't imagine many democrats voting for Carlucci if they don't have to, particularly Black democrats who make up a significant share of the vote. I would be fine with either but it'd be a toss-up

A few reasons:

 - As you stated, most strong Rs will vote for Carlucci over Deegan solely because of the letter after their names.
 - Most Moderate Rs will not only vote for Carlucci, they'll happily vote for Carlucci as he is a very moderate R
 - Carlucci has a strong amount of respect from the independents in town who are connected

Additionally, I can see Carlucci appealing with Black Democrats, at least to a small extent:

 - He crossed party lines to endorse Nat Glover for Mayor in 2003 instead of endorsing John Peyton, his fellow Republican. This was on the heels of this: https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/jta-moves-ahead-new-director (Peyton was the deciding vote in selecting Morse over Blaylock to head JTA, then Morse left a year later.)

 - Carlucci has been quite vocal in his support for removing the confederate monuments, as has Deegan.

In short, do I think he'll pull more Black Democrats than Deegan? HIGHLY unlikely. But, given that it will be a very close race, I think in that scenario Carlucci edges her out.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on November 11, 2021, 12:30:52 AM
I like Deegan and Carlucci.  I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them.  That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement with the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start.  For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race.  I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).

I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections. 

I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Zac T on November 11, 2021, 10:07:27 AM
I like Deegan and Carlucci.  I know Democrats want to field a strong candidate for Mayor and can't blame them.  That said, Carlucci has a lifetime of knowledge and experience derived from active involvement the workings of the City and its issues and could hit the ground running much faster than Deegan. Carlucci also has had a big head start.  For these reasons, I believe he should have first dibs on this race.  I would have preferred Deegan to "wait her turn" or perhaps run for an at large seat on the Council where she might have had an impact, albeit less than as a mayor, and maybe use that as a launching pad for a future mayoral run (see all the other announced or speculative candidates so far for this race).

I don't mind having both run, in the end, as long as it doesn't push both of them out and we are left, once again, with two special interest, marginal and/or extreme candidates to chose from as we have had in several of the last few elections. 

I wish we had rank choice voting to overcome having less than 50% of less than half of the voters in a low turnout primary decide the runoff and even fewer decide our Mayor in the runoff.

I think it's a good thing that Deegan entered the race since it will motivate voters to turnout who otherwise wouldn't come. In 2019, low turnout due to the lack of a D candidate at the top of the ticket proved consequential in close council races
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: vicupstate on December 02, 2021, 04:19:01 PM
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: thelakelander on December 02, 2021, 05:02:56 PM
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Charles Hunter on December 02, 2021, 07:10:17 PM
Interesting! How is he running for council? Isn't he term limited?

He served almost 2 terms in an At-Large seat from 1987 to 1994, then elected to the District 4 seat from 1999-2003. Then to his current At-Large seat in 2019.  Term limits were enacted in 1991 limiting Council members to two consecutive terms. Thus, after serving your 8 years, you can sit out a term (or be elected to a different office) and then return for another 8 years.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Ken_FSU on December 02, 2021, 07:45:47 PM
Matt Carlucci has withdrawn from the race and will run for city council instead.

Bet the Jags are happy about this one.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: JeffreyS on December 02, 2021, 10:17:21 PM
I wonder who he will endorse.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Captain Zissou on December 03, 2021, 09:49:44 AM
I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no.  She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis.  Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out.  I'm guessing he'll endorse her.
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: jaxlongtimer on December 03, 2021, 11:20:11 PM
I spoke with him last year about his run and he said he asked Donna Deegan whether she'd be entering the race and she said no.  She offered her support for him and I think that's a big reason why he felt he could compete with big money Davis.  Not sure what changed with her since then, but I think that's a big reason why he dropped out.  I'm guessing he'll endorse her.

Since he referenced fundraising as more effort than he bargained for, I am going to guess, with so many R's running, it was too competitive for R monies and, being a R (albeit a moderate one) he was unlikely to get enough from the D's to put him where he needed to get. 

Deegan, being the only D may be able to consolidate all the D dollars plus draw from the moderate R's Carlucci could raise dollars from, creating a bigger war chest than he could raise.  Likewise, Deegan may be able to increase the turnout of the D's, add moderate R's and leverage her #1 name recognition to give Davis a real horserace.  Carlucci would have likely split the R's votes with Davis, Cumber, Ferarro, etc. and not been able to get the full D turnout for him, especially with Deegan in the race.  Keep in mind, D's are the majority of the Duval electorate, they just need great turnout to take charge.  Deegan may be able to do that for the D's better than Carlucci.

So, in the end, it looks to me like a numbers game.  Carlucci has witnessed enough mayoral races to see that having more than one moderate candidate run just results in a wild card from the sidelines winning it all.  Carlucci sacrificed his own aspirations for the greater good of the community because if he and Deegan both ran, it would have played into the hands of Davis.  Given that many view Davis as Curry 2.0, that would not move the City away from the Good Ol' Boy control that Carlucci, Deegan and others would like to snuff out, once and for all.

I wonder what Carlucci will do with the dollars he already raised.  Probably more than he needs for a second term on the Council.  Will he move a chunk over to Deegan?  That is likely what many of his donors may want him to do at this point.  It would also give Deegan a good fundraising boost.

P.S.  I haven't found any voters happy with Curry's kiss-ass treatment of Khan.  People (including diehard Jags fans) seem to be enraged with the giveaways to Khan.  If Khan bankrolls Davis, it could actually result in a big offset for him - i.e. amount to a negative endorsement that cost him votes.  Will be interesting to watch and his opponents should exploit this if this actually occurs.

Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: BridgeTroll on December 04, 2021, 07:42:08 AM
The good news for me is... I  get to sit this one out as no longer attracted to any of them... a big giant MEH to the rest of em...
Title: Re: Jacksonville Mayoral Election 2023
Post by: Florida Power And Light on December 04, 2021, 07:53:52 PM
If it wasn’t for a Joe Carlucci a Matt Carlucci would not have much traction now.
I have vowed to no longer vote for Serial Family Politicians.
Even if a Public Boat Ramp is named in honor of a Carlucci.
Ha!..... let’s name a section of the First Coast Outer Beltway in honor of Senator Carlucci.
Somewhat long ago...... Redistrict revision process...... ends up Senator Carlucci, long established politically easterly St Johns River..... was faced with having his District revised to include Clay County.
At some point during the revision process, with the prospect of Clay, he stayed, as reported FTU...... “ Over my dead body!”.
Well..... turns out Clay would be Joe’s new political  playground, and support for the Brannon/ Chaffee Leg was a given.
How Carlucci’s Political Mantra was : “ Tell It Like It Is”