The Jaxson

Community => News => Topic started by: Metro Jacksonville on May 23, 2013, 10:57:06 PM

Title: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Metro Jacksonville on May 23, 2013, 10:57:06 PM
2012 City Population Estimates Released

(http://photos.metrojacksonville.com/photos/2526210365_BGJqrvx-M.jpg)

The Census Bureau recently released their 2012 estimates for the country's largest cities. Despite having the largest land area in the continental United States, Jacksonville has been passed by Austin, TX and now is on the verge of being surpassed in population by several other cities. Today, Metro Jacksonville shares the population estimates of all American cities with more than 50,000 residents to illustrate where Jacksonville's growth fits in with the rest of the country.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2013-may-2012-city-population-estimates-released
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 23, 2013, 11:05:38 PM
http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb13-94.html (http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb13-94.html)

Columbus, Fort Worth and Charlotte are closing in fast. 

http://factfinder2.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2012/PEPANNRSIP.US12A (http://factfinder2.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2012/PEPANNRSIP.US12A)


Apparently SF has even added 50% more people than Jacksonville since the 2010 Census, and considering it's basically the first time the city has allowed significant new construction in decades I believe it.

Actually, when you look at all the major cities in the top 30 or 40, Indy and Jax adding 14,000 apiece are ahead of only Detroit, Baltimore, Memphis, Louisville, Milwaukee, and a few other obvious suspects.  Cities half of Jax's population apparently still added more people.  Yikes.  Considering that the weather and cost of living in Jax are the same as in SJC and there is still abundant land (basically more land to grow than any other city on that list), this is potentially an eye opening problem.

Moderator's Edit: These two posts were copied and pasted from a similar thread.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 23, 2013, 11:07:12 PM
Very interesting indeed.  I figured we'd eventually get passed by Austin and Charlotte.  I just didn't realize they'd catch us so quick.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 24, 2013, 01:57:33 AM
There's no telling what will happen to growth in the 2,831 days between 7/1/12 and 4/1/20, but at the current average daily rate the 5 counties in NE FL are growing in the 822 days between 4/1/10 and 7/1/12, the metro will not even reach 1.5 million people in 2020's Census, it will come just shy.

By contrast, SF County would reach 901K people (Duval will stay larger), which would put it at 19,224 ppsm including park space (est 21,330 without).

Fulton County in Atlanta will grow 30% from 920K to over 1.2 million, and overall the 5 core counties of Atlanta will grow over 19% from 3.365M to 4.015M, which is an even spread of ~2,350 ppsm (1,713 square miles vs 3,698 square miles in the 5 county Jacksonville MSA)


Jax MSA (2010 Census, 2012 est, growth, nominal daily growth rate, 2020 Census est, decadal growth)

Duval   864,263   879,602   1.775%   0.002%      934,544   8.1%
St. Johns   190,039   202,188   6.393%   0.008%      250,290   31.7%
Clayton   190,865   194,345   1.823%   0.002%      206,823   8.4%
Nassau   73,314   74,629   1.794%   0.002%      79,341   8.2%
Baker   27,115   27,086   -0.107%   0.000%      26,986   -0.5%
                     
Subtotal   1,345,596   1,377,850   2.397%   0.003%      1,497,984   11.3%
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: vicupstate on May 24, 2013, 06:34:16 AM
Charlotte's growth in the past has been due to annexations prior to 2010 or so, but that has all but ceased.  Yet the robust increase continues DESPITE being hit so hard by the financial meltdown.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 24, 2013, 09:01:51 AM
somre really interesting things here.

1. Growth in Austin is ridiculous...2+% a year for a large market is hardly desirable/sustainable...reference the results of rapid growth in Florida from the 1970s through the 1990s to see the results

2. Chicago and Philly are both growing....first time in decades

3. Furthermore, I wonder if Atlanta's growth is really happening this time...the 2010 Census data revealed that the growth estimated to occur between 2000 and 2010 never happened...in fact the city lost population

4. DC is now larger than Baltimore....good for the larger region, yet sad for the city I associated with growing up

5. San Francisco's growth seems incredible for a city that is essentially built out with many neighborhoods that won't densify more
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 24, 2013, 10:09:05 AM
San Francisco has been built out for decades. What areas of the city are responsible for it's continued growth?  Also, is this infill a reuse of older building stock or higher density new construction?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 24, 2013, 10:13:19 AM
Red.

somre really interesting things here.

1. Growth in Austin is ridiculous...2+% a year for a large market is hardly desirable/sustainable...reference the results of rapid growth in Florida from the 1970s through the 1990s to see the results

2. Chicago and Philly are both growing....first time in decades  Always good, but a lot of folks are skeptical about Chicago growth and population loss continues to be a topic brought up and a reason why not every institutional fund is ready to jump into that city...

3. Furthermore, I wonder if Atlanta's growth is really happening this time...the 2010 Census data revealed that the growth estimated to occur between 2000 and 2010 never happened...in fact the city lost population  The fact that the city and county didn't register the growth everyone thought last decade raised a ton of eyebrows.  Furthermore, what's happened is a major demographic shift in Atlanta and with the amount of infill that has been built and filled in the past 10 years, this isn't surprising.

4. DC is now larger than Baltimore....good for the larger region, yet sad for the city I associated with growing up

5. San Francisco's growth seems incredible for a city that is essentially built out with many neighborhoods that won't densify more  San Francisco has close to 10,000 units just completed or UC at this time, so yes, unbelievably this growth is happening.  There's another tech boom happening.  If you came here your jaw would drop at all the tower cranes - a couple dozen up right now throughout the city, and there is always room to grow...if NYC can explode in population, any city can.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 24, 2013, 10:41:30 AM
Good point about NYC!
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 24, 2013, 10:56:12 AM
San Francisco has been built out for decades. What areas of the city are responsible for it's continued growth?  Also, is this infill a reuse of older building stock or higher density new construction?

Reuse in the city's traditional ghetto - the Tenderloin, now nicknamed the Trendyloin, the rest is new construction infill and conversion of obsolete office buildings into residential.  I don't care to post renderings of the dozens of really cool infill projects in the 8-10 story range (80-140 units), but there are also tall towers going up and a large conversion, see below:

Conversion just now starting, tower crane is up to remove concrete panels from old building.
(http://www.socketsite.com/100%20Van%20Ness.jpg)

(http://www.socketsite.com/100%20Van%20Ness%20Rendering.jpg)


A few projects going up right now:

(http://www.socketsite.com/1960-1998%20Market%20Revised%20Design%20-%20Corner%20close.jpg)

(https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/-Z3ALRB9jtrI/T6sisAc0YHI/AAAAAAAAAwg/g-fxdiYZIN0/s640/129417385600.459.14.jpeg?imgmax=1600)

749 units - this is topped off and almost delivered:

(http://www.socketsite.com/1401%20Market%202011%20Rendering%20-%20night.jpg)

Nearly complete now:
(http://www.asbcm.com/images/333freemont.jpg)

Tishman Speyer breaking ground on this:
(http://www.socketsite.com/201%20Folsom%20Arquitectonica%20Design%201.jpg)

(http://www.socketsite.com/340%20Fremont%202012-thumb.jpg)
(http://www.socketsite.com/340%20Fremont%202012%20Rear.jpg)
(http://www.socketsite.com/340%20Fremont%202012%20Podium%20-%20Street.jpg)

Site prep now:
(http://www.crescentheights.com/corp2/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/45_lansing11.jpg)

Tons of stuff like this going up:

(http://i.imgur.com/kyC9F.jpg)

This project sold out in like 2 hours in pre-construction:

(http://www.kwanhenmi.com/Images/projects/1800vn/1800vn02.jpg)

(http://www.kwanhenmi.com/Images/projects/1800vn/1800vn01.jpg)

Almost topped off 17 stories:

(http://i.imgur.com/H2Nb7l.jpg)

Infill near stadium:
(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8427/7602305746_fe0bff77e3_b.jpg)
(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8156/7602308454_7c8b604e82_b.jpg)

Castro infill (24 units):
(http://www.socketsite.com/376%20Castro%20Rendering%202012.jpg)

(http://www.socketsite.com/8%20Octavia%20Rendering.jpg)

Tenderloin infill (neighb of 75,000 ppsm):
(http://i.imgur.com/Fd37t.jpg?1)

(http://i.imgur.com/kKN89.jpg?1)

(http://i.imgur.com/xwceP.jpg?1)

Mission District infill:

(http://cdn.cstatic.net/images/gridfs/504784d385216d09ab002064/1%20hill.jpg)

More Upper Market St infill (probably 10 tower cranes up for similar/larger projects on upper market right now):
(http://sf.curbed.com/uploads/2200%20Market%20Rendering.jpg)

(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8187/8146268808_5252916b36_b.jpg)

More Mission infill:

(http://www.kwanhenmi.com/Images/projects/2558mission/2558mission01.jpg)

This corner site is turning out nicely (almost done now):
(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8069/8242847561_2d7fe6be51_b.jpg)

(http://brianspiersdevelopment.com/Images/TH-1600.jpg)

Down the street:
(http://www.socketsite.com/231%20Franklin%2011-5-09.jpg)

(http://imageshack.us/a/img713/7890/pinen.jpg)

From SF Biz:
(http://ww1.hdnux.com/photos/21/23/12/4534932/3/premium_article_portrait.jpg)


SF also has several office towers under construction...and the Transbay Terminal and the Central Subway and some huge new mixed-use/retail developments under construction in Union Square next to Westfield Centre.  The amount of construction here is huge, even in neighborhoods that approach 100,000 ppsm in density (Tenderloin, where several affordable housing towers are UC).
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 24, 2013, 12:55:18 PM
thanks Simms...some really great stuff going on in SF
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: John P on May 24, 2013, 06:01:35 PM
I think the San fransico affordbale housing and rent program is interesting.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: IronDonut on May 27, 2013, 10:01:55 PM
Stuff I never think:

-- Gee I wish there was more traffic moving slower.

-- I hate these blue skies I wish there were more people hear fowling the air so we could have more pollution.

-- This line is moving too quickly - what would make this a better experience is if I had to wait longer.

-- Only a 25 minute wait for a table?!? A 45 minute wait would be better!

Other metro areas are growing faster than here? Good. I hope that trend continues. In fact I would love it if about 250,000 of the people that currently live here decided to pack up and move somewhere else.

Why would anyone want more people to live here?  The place is overrun with people. Moving too slowly. Making bad choices in traffic. Checking 57 items out in the 10 items or less lane. Not turning right on red. Clogging up the left lane. Exposing too much soft pasty white flesh at our beaches.

More of this is "winning?"  I don't think so.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 27, 2013, 10:13:05 PM
Because if you dont grow and everyone else does, you get left behind
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 27, 2013, 10:21:41 PM
Other metro areas are growing faster than here? Good. I hope that trend continues. In fact I would love it if about 250,000 of the people that currently live here decided to pack up and move somewhere else.

LOL, I bet you would not like the result of 30% drop in population and the impact of that decline on the city's budget.  We can barely afford to mow public ROW regularly, keep our streets up to par and schools open.  Take that many taxpayers out of the equation and you'll turn this place into Detroit South.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Ocklawaha on May 27, 2013, 10:44:48 PM
Quote
...people hear fowling the air...


(http://i196.photobucket.com/albums/aa111/Ocklawaha/CRITICAL%20Special%20Effects%20Images/ScreenShot2013-05-27at104117PM_zps396deef4.png)
Man Fowling The Air

I want to see this!
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: IronDonut on May 27, 2013, 10:47:17 PM
Or you say at a million people - because thats enough and you concentrate on building a better city and not a bigger city?

The end game with bigger is LA. I don't know if you've ever tried to get from point A to point B in LA or inhaled their pristine crisp clean air... the place isn't exactly a paradise.

Because if you dont grow and everyone else does, you get left behind
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 27, 2013, 10:52:32 PM
While I agree that we should be concentrating on building a better city and not a bigger one, it is desirable to have sustainable growth as opposed to decline.  Unfortunately, we have not reached that point yet.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 27, 2013, 10:54:09 PM
Here's the population of all Florida cities 100,000 and above, along with  the amount of growth in each since 2010.  I included Lakeland, since its estimate was 99,999.

836,507 - Jacksonville (+14,723)

413,892 - Miami (+14,435)

347,645 - Tampa (+11,936)

249,562 - Orlando (+11,262)

246,541 - St. Petersburg (+1,772)

231,941 - Hialeah (+7,272)

186,971 - Tallahassee (+5,595)

170,747 - Fort Lauderdale (+5,226)

168,716 - Port St. Lucie (+4,113)

161,248 - Cape Coral (+6,943)

160,306 - Pembroke Pines (+5,556)

145,236 - Hollywood (+4,468)

128,729 - Miramar (+6,688)

126,047 - Gainesville (+1,693)

125,287 - Coral Springs (+4,191)

110,754 - Miami Gardens (+3,587)

108,732 - Clearwater (+1,047)

104,124 - Palm Bay (+934)

102,984 - Pompano Beach (+4,139)

101,903 - West Palm Beach (+1,984)

 99,999 - Lakeland (+2,577)
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Ocklawaha on May 27, 2013, 11:17:38 PM
It appears we are actually doing much better then our sister cities here in Florida, only 246,541 - St. Petersburg (+1,772)
231,941 - Hialeah (+7,272), added more people then Jacksonville.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 27, 2013, 11:29:16 PM
No Florida city added more people than Jacksonville.  However, no city has 747 square miles of land area either.  Miami added 288 people less than us but all of that was stuffed into 35 square miles of land area.  It's also well known our state was one of the hardest hit during the height of the recession. Some cities actually lost population a few years back.  It's good to see the state finally rebounding.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 28, 2013, 11:10:07 AM
the rate of growth is more telling than pure numbers....for example, Tampa grew at 3.4% while Jax. grew at half that
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 28, 2013, 11:23:22 AM
^Except the rate of growth can also skewed by the land area of a municipality and differing built environments within those places.  Did metropolitan Tampa-St. Pete grow at 3.4% or did Tampa grow at that rate due to a rapidly growing suburban area like New Tampa being in city limits?  Assuming Tampa was in a situation where it merged with Hillsborough, it's possible the growth rate would drop because of slow, stagnant or declining growth in rural and older suburban areas.  I believe this applies for both Tampa and Orlando.  Especially an Orlando, which has annexed the airport and Medical City but continues to not add OBT to its limits, despite OBT virtually being an inner city neighborhood.

On the other hand, I find what's happening in Miami very impressive.  We know for a fact that those 14,000 new residents were all infill urban growth.  By the same token, it's interesting to see that this growth is also taking place in adjacent compact urban centers like Miami Beach and Hialeah as well.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on May 28, 2013, 11:37:37 AM
Locally, I think we can expect to see see much lower growth in Duval than the surrounding counties as long as St. Johns (and to an extent Clay) continue to outcompete the Duval suburbs, most importantly in the schools.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 28, 2013, 02:07:05 PM
Assuming Tampa was in a situation where it merged with Hillsborough, it's possible the growth rate would drop because of slow, stagnant or declining growth in rural and older suburban areas.

Unincorporated Hillsborough County is also growing pretty rapidly
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 28, 2013, 03:46:00 PM
but former boomburgs like Carrollwood and the central parts of Brandon (our versions of Baymeadows and Normandy) are either stagnant or slightly losing population now. However, they just happen to not fall within Tampa's city limits. Tampa has some inner city areas doing okay but the lion's share of growth is occurring in New Tampa.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 28, 2013, 03:56:49 PM
^ and the exurban areas of southeastern Hillsborough County
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 28, 2013, 06:10:44 PM
On the other hand, I find what's happening in Miami very impressive.  We know for a fact that those 14,000 new residents were all infill urban growth.  By the same token, it's interesting to see that this growth is also taking place in adjacent compact urban centers like Miami Beach and Hialeah as well.

I'd love more details as to the nature of the growth in Miami.  It's my understanding that the bulk of new construction in Miami and South FL remains luxury for sale condos in coastal areas, some affordable housing projects in north/central Miami, and tourist-driven retail and mega-projects in the coastal areas.  I don't see young 18-32 year old college grads and young professionals flocking to South FL like they are currently flocking to a few markets in TX, CA, WA, DC and other more traditional education-based employment centers.  I believe it's still flight money/investment home buyers tied to foreign residents and northern residents making Miami their primary, even if they don't live there year round.

Otherwise I think you'd hear more "employment" announcements (not related to service industry) and corporate announcements tied to Miami, and actual office construction, versus the luxury high rise communities still sprouting up like weeds that cater to a different clientele.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 28, 2013, 06:23:20 PM
It would be interesting.  I'm surprised Hialeah has grown by +7k in two years after slightly dropping in population during the last decade.  There are also a ton of smaller South Florida cities in the 75-90k range putting together some decent numbers as well.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 28, 2013, 07:16:34 PM
Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 28, 2013, 09:14:13 PM
I beg to disagree.  Miami is the antithesis of a Millennial Market.  This could be a real debate, and I would be willing to bet it's not too hard to poke holes in the Miami = Millennial hub argument (in fact off the top of my head I can poke several major holes, starting with the job market, which sucks for college grads/MBAs down in SoFla, which is why nobody goes there, LoL).  That's not to say there isn't a set of drivers in Miami - but a stellar, high paying job market (needed for the COL down there I might add) is not one of them.  Foreign money, tourism/hospitality, and the real estate/construction driven by the prior two are it.

On top of not offering the quality or quantity of jobs necessary to be considered a destination Millennial market, the local job market is notoriously exclusive to Spanish speakers and Latin Americans, which automatically turns off most Millennials in the US.  Furthermore, the city/region doesn't have the traditional ingredients that most other top 10 or top 20 markets considered appealing to Millennials have.

Anyway, moving on...the city does have a set of drivers.  I've heard it said that a bet on Miami is a bet on the USD, like I've heard that a bet on Houston is a bet on oil.  I don't think Jax has any definitive drivers, which imho holds it back.  Jax needs to develop a couple of traditional domestic knowledge-based economic drivers (as opposed to the foreign appeal of Miami and the strength/stability of the USD relative SA currencies).
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: dougsandiego on May 28, 2013, 11:20:58 PM
San Diego is slipping too, but the people here offer a collective shrug. Remember, it's quality that counts, not quantity. Mumbai is really big, but would you want to live there? There is a lot of new construction underway in the city now, and prices are climbing fast which is bad for working families. The median for the whole county, single family homes and condos, just topped $400k. On the plus side, in Centre City there are four-parks and an expanded central square and a great new central library under construction. It's all about quality of life. This is where your site focuses. Quality of life is much more important than the number of people within your boundary or the height of your buildings.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 29, 2013, 12:32:16 AM
^^^Yes, I've heard SD offers a great quality of life.  Still haven't been down there (I'm in SF and travel down to LA every so often), but my company is looking at some real estate deals down in SD.  $400K?  That's cheap!!   ;D
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 29, 2013, 02:52:52 AM
Here's someone's recent photo update from the weekend in an area of SF known as Upper Market, which runs through the Castro, Duboce Triangle, and Mission Dolores neighborhoods.  Just to highlight the extent of infill in literally one small section of the city - Jax needs to get its act together because the two most dense, most built out cities in America are still adding residential and attracting tons more people!  I envisioned projects such as these occupying empty lots in Springfield, which is why I was never vocally angry or sad about losing homes there...but now I realize nothing like this will happen and nothing will replace those empty lots, so SAVE those houses!

Quote
Quote from: timbad;6145180
a lot of the upper Market St projects are all still in their burkas, but we can at least get a sense of what their bulk will feel like once they are done.  west to east, here are some of them (I didn't get a shot of Icon, closest to Castro) on a gray Memorial Day:

north side of Market at 15th, former Thai restaurant, looking west:

(http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7340/8863254391_227db4879b_b.jpg)

kitty-corner from it, former gas station on south side of Market, being excavated:

(http://farm8.staticflickr.com/7356/8863856060_f84484674a_b.jpg)

the Whole Foods at Dolores, as seen when approaching from the east:

(http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3829/8863232265_4ff59695d7_b.jpg)

... and from across the street:

(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8394/8863834260_a7e909b6d5_b.jpg)

kitty-corner from there, former gas station on the corner of Buchanan, looking east:

(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5460/8863805148_a19e608536_b.jpg)

and looking west from across the street:

(http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8140/8863205387_ef12d8496c_b.jpg)

next to the LGBT Center, former hole in the ground:

(http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3737/8875662256_0f4c5b737f_b.jpg)

and looking west:

(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5322/8875667660_7aeeea1f6f_b.jpg)

Market and Octavia is still being dug out; hard to get a good shot of the work.  this is looking south down the length of the lot:

(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5334/8863240017_f812b2bd73_b.jpg)

and the BMR component of the Buchanan project, at Page and Franklin, what could be a gateway into Hayes Valley, tho there are a couple parking lots just north of this intersection crying out to be filled with something productive:

(http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3750/8863829592_a6a641d788_b.jpg)

... and a bit more in context, with glimpses of some of the other projects in the distance:

(http://farm6.staticflickr.com/5462/8863818612_f3f067b586_b.jpg)

Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 29, 2013, 08:11:25 AM
On top of not offering the quality or quantity of jobs necessary to be considered a destination Millennial market, the local job market is notoriously exclusive to Spanish speakers and Latin Americans, which automatically turns off most Millennials in the US.

guess you haven't taken notice of the fastest growing demographic group in the country huh?

btw, 2010 Census data for Miami-Dade County shows 588,000 people between the ages of 18 and 34....which comprises 24% of the countywide total...the state average is 18%, so I stand by my statement that Miami hold its own with millenials
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 09:33:50 AM
Since when did Latin Americans start scaring off millennials?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on May 29, 2013, 10:28:00 AM
^And what about Hispanic American millennials?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 29, 2013, 11:39:00 AM
Jacksonville is also young - but would you call it a Millennial market?  LoL  Let's get serious here.  Denver is a Millennial market.  Not only is it young, it attracts a wide range of Millennials from all over and provides high paying jobs for them, as well as the quality of life they desire.  JOBS is the key.  JOBS for everyone.  Young/growing industries, too.

Miami is young for other reasons.  It doesn't have the robust job market, and it doesn't offer the lifestyle that many millennials stereotypically seek.  It's antithetical to what most young people want.

And Lake, obviously Latin Americans don't scare off millennials, there are plenty of Latin Millennials.  As Stephen said, let's not conflate my statement.  I went to college with many South Americans and Cubans from Miami, some went back to Miami (basically the only kids from my college who found jobs in Miami, and others moved on to other cities as most do).

And Tacachale - Hispanic American is wide sweeping.  Miami has very few Mexicans...there's proof alone in the pudding that not even all Spanish speakers feel at home in Miami due to cultural differences.  In fact, there aren't even that many Puerto Ricans in Miami.  If I were Mexican American, I'd sure as hell rather be in Denver, LA, Chicago, Houston, or just about anywhere but Miami (wouldn't it be awkward being the only Mexican in Miami, but still amongst other Spanish speakers who may subconsciously view you as somehow inferior?).
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 11:52:58 AM
Meh.  Simms has a point on the language barrier though.  Hispanics account for only 16.7 of the US Population, and a job market that is really only open to 16.7 percent of anyone isn't exactly a draw.  take into account that among that 16.7% only 25% of them are Millenials and you have about 4% of the US Population left.

Its a large number, but there are other bilingual cities.

And I think its unfair to conflate Simms language barrier statement.  Limiting the higher paying job market to white kids from the ivy league during the 1950s and 1960s didnt work out so well either.  A lot of talent and raw financial connections were excluded from firms and organizations who simply went elsewhere.

As in San Francisco and Chicago.

Meh.  I'm not sold on that explanation in regards to South Florida.  It's an animal that doesn't necessarily fit into white America's traditional perspective on urban history and development.  If anything, its degree of diversity makes it an attractive niche market.  The census numbers reflect this.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 11:59:53 AM
And Lake, obviously Latin Americans don't scare off millennials, there are plenty of Latin Millennials.  As Stephen said, let's not conflate my statement.  I went to college with many South Americans and Cubans from Miami, some went back to Miami (basically the only kids from my college who found jobs in Miami, and others moved on to other cities as most do).

Different major but my college experience was significantly different.  At the time, FAMU SOA's (School of Architecture) demographics had a heavy percentage of students from Florida and the Caribbean. Over the last decade, the majority ended up going and spending some time in either South Florida, Central Florida or Atlanta.  The Deep South may view South Florida as having a language barrier but that barrier doesn't exist for other regions.  That place is really an international gateway to the US (at least to the Caribbean) and it's diversity reflects that.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 29, 2013, 12:02:58 PM
Jacksonville is also young - but would you call it a Millennial market?  LoL  Let's get serious here.  Denver is a Millennial market.  Not only is it young, it attracts a wide range of Millennials from all over and provides high paying jobs for them, as well as the quality of life they desire.  JOBS is the key.  JOBS for everyone.  Young/growing industries, too.

Miami is young for other reasons.  It doesn't have the robust job market, and it doesn't offer the lifestyle that many millennials stereotypically seek.  It's antithetical to what most young people want.

dude....have you been to Miami lately?  Not that I want to lump all young people together, but I think they are often looking for a lively music & cultural scene, a multitude of dining options, lots of recreational opportunities, and often hip cool urban housing....all of which Miami (and Miami Beach) have in abundance!

as for Jacksonville and millenials....the same data source that said 18-34 year olds make up 24% of Miami-Dade population says Duval is also at 24%....a key difference here vs. Miami would be the # of folks in the Navy...btw, do they count as millenials to you?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on May 29, 2013, 12:19:10 PM
And Tacachale - Hispanic American is wide sweeping.  Miami has very few Mexicans...there's proof alone in the pudding that not even all Spanish speakers feel at home in Miami due to cultural differences.  In fact, there aren't even that many Puerto Ricans in Miami.  If I were Mexican American, I'd sure as hell rather be in Denver, LA, Chicago, Houston, or just about anywhere but Miami (wouldn't it be awkward being the only Mexican in Miami, but still amongst other Spanish speakers who may subconsciously view you as somehow inferior?).

1 in 5 Millennials are Hispanic. Miami obviously doesn't have any trouble attracting Hispanics from various regions, countries and backgrounds, considering that, well, over 60% of the county is made up of Hispanics from various regions, countries and backgrounds. It's highly dubious that this quality "automatically turns off most Millennials in the US". At least in terms of Florida, I don't think Miami is having a hard time attracting and keeping Millennials.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 12:20:27 PM
Well two things:

1.  Saying that something is an attractive market is different from claiming that it is a 'millenial generation' city.  Certainly New Orleans is an attractive market.  But it most definitely is not an attraction to Millenials.

Two things:

1. What is your definition of a millennial?  I believe this is key to where this conversation goes.

2. Who said anything about a millennial 'generation' city?  From my view, the defense of South Florida is that it holds its own in attracting and retaining millennials.  As shown above, the census numbers reflect that. Are you disagreeing with the Census?

Quote
2.  I think the thing being complained about is Miami's lack of broad diversity.  It is certainly not a city for young asian investors, for example.  And even within 'hispanic' cultures it can be a pretty bigoted city.

Interestingly, Miami itself is concerned about this problem. (of not having an 'engaged' millenial generation}

In a report last year, partly sponsored by University of Florida:
http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=miami%20millenial%20generation&source=web&cd=2&ved=0CDsQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.ncoc.net%2Findex.php%3Fdownload%3D114kcfl1351&ei=ZiamUf_qJIe-9gSdxYGYCA&usg=AFQjCNG5leUdwy90rNNWAQT-eMMsIP0NQA&sig2=56P7NHyBkAf-NAnA9fZ5GA&bvm=bv.47008514,d.eWU

This report examines the civic health of the Millennial generation in the Miami metropolitan area.1 It follows previous civic health index reports, which contrasted Miami, the least engaged metropolitan area in the nation, with Minneapolis-St. Paul, the most engaged, and the 2011 Florida Civic Health Index, which provided a statewide view of civic engagement among Florida’s Millennial generation.

The coming of age of the Millennial generation—the huge cohort of young people ages 18-30—represents a potentially seismic shift in American politics, society and culture. In sheer size, these teens and twenty- somethings outnumber the adults of the Baby Boom generation. In racial and ethnic terms, they are the most diverse generation in American history: some 40 percent are non-white. And they’re the most educated, with a larger percentage attending college and fewer dropping out of high school than ever before.

Florida is at the forefront of this profound demographic shift. It is an emerging “majority-minority” state with one of the largest young, non-white populations in the nation. The changing demographics of the Sunshine State are, in large part, driven by the Miami metropolitan area. Thus, by examining civic engagement levels of Miami Millennials we hope to provide a glimpse into the future civic health of Florida. We are certainly aware that an examination of civic engagement of the least engaged generation residing in the least engaged metropolitan area will reveal findings that are of great concern. However, the goal of this report is to also serve as a point of departure in generating community conversations about the means by which individuals can become more engaged in civic life. Ultimately, solutions to the "Civic Engagement Deficit" in the Miami metropolitan area must emerge from citizens and institutions working together to realize a shared vision of an engaged civic community.

Lol, if South Florida isn't culturally diverse, places like Jacksonville, Austin, Nashville and Charlotte must really suck.  Nevertheless, I don't see this report as being proof that Miami is not attracting or retaining millennials.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on May 29, 2013, 12:21:51 PM
I think both Stephen and Simms are both falling afoul of their own terminology. Not all Millennials are "young professionals", and vice versa.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 12:27:05 PM
For Forbes list of the top cities for Millenials check here.  (hint:  none of them are in Florida)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2013/04/24/the-10-happiest-cities-for-young-professionals/2/

This highlights some places Forbes believes young professionals are more attracted to. However, it does not suggest that every place not shown on the list is failing to attract and retain millennials.

Btw, millennials aren't necessarily "young professionals". In general, millennials (also known as Generation Y, Echo Boomers, etc.) are the generation of people born between the early 1980s and 2000′s.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 12:33:14 PM
http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/files/2010/10/millennials-confident-connected-open-to-change.pdf

here is a somewhat limited guide to millenial demographics.

I say limited because it only accounts for about 10 years, which is not truly a 'generation'.

Millenials in general were born from 1980 to about 2000.  some people would say 1984 until 911. 

The youngest Millenial would be 12 years old now, and the oldest would be 33.  The pew numbers reflect the older half of that generation---which is what we are also all talking about now.

So what does the linked article below, focusing on young professionals, have to do with whether Miami is attracting and retaining millennials?

For Forbes list of the top cities for Millenials check here.  (hint:  none of them are in Florida)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2013/04/24/the-10-happiest-cities-for-young-professionals/2/
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 12:35:05 PM
For Forbes list of the top cities for Millenials check here.  (hint:  none of them are in Florida)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/jacquelynsmith/2013/04/24/the-10-happiest-cities-for-young-professionals/2/

This highlights some places Forbes believes young professionals are more attracted to. However, it does not suggest that every place not shown on the list is failing to attract and retain millennials.

Btw, millennials aren't necessarily "young professionals". In general, millennials (also known as Generation Y, Echo Boomers, etc.) are the generation of people born between the early 1980s and 2000′s.

true but considering that Miami is in the top five  largest metropolitan areas, you would expect that they would make the top ten if it were actually a magnet to the largest generation of living americans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_and_metropolitan_areas_of_the_United_States

No, not really.  my point was that South Florida appears to be attracting and retaining millennials. Nothing more, nothing less.  Are you saying this is not true?  If so, you may want to call the US Census Bureau and tell them their numbers are off.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:17:55 PM
Hmm.  I didnt actually have to call the Census Bureau as they publish reports.  I googled them instead.

So what's the population loss of the millennial generation in the City of Miami over the last decade?  From what I can tell from Miami's census data is that there is no population loss.  Thus, logic would suggest that population growth within this generation indicates the city is attracting and retaining this population. All the stuff about San Francisco and other cities is pure babble and not even worthy of spending time to debate. Either this place is seeing growth or decline. There is no middle ground when simply evaluating the absolute numbers.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:22:03 PM
I think both Stephen and Simms are both falling afoul of their own terminology. Not all Millennials are "young professionals", and vice versa.

Obviously thats true, but are very poor, working class, or very wealthy millenials really the groups most likely to relocate to a different city based on their aesthetics and professional prospects?

It really depends.  There are other factors at play like quality-of-life, proximity to family, cultural comfort, etc. Nevertheless, all of this is irrelevant to the discussion of whether Miami is holding its own in attracting and retaining millennials.  If it's in decline, census numbers would reflect this.  They don't.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:24:21 PM
Hmm.  I didnt actually have to call the Census Bureau as they publish reports.  I googled them instead.

So what's the population loss of the millennial generation in the City of Miami over the last decade?  From what I can tell from Miami's census data is that there is no population loss.  Thus, logic would suggest that population growth within this generation indicates the city is attracting and retaining this population. All the stuff about San Francisco and other cities is pure babble and not even worthy of spending time to debate. Either this place is seeing growth or decline. There is no middle ground when simply evaluating the absolute numbers.

so in other words, you don't know? ;)

I think we clearly know, you don't know ;D.  I'm just sticking with the growth numbers indicated by the census. Nothing more, nothing less.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:26:00 PM
I think both Stephen and Simms are both falling afoul of their own terminology. Not all Millennials are "young professionals", and vice versa.

Obviously thats true, but are very poor, working class, or very wealthy millenials really the groups most likely to relocate to a different city based on their aesthetics and professional prospects?

It really depends.  There are other factors at play like quality-of-life, proximity to family, cultural comfort, etc. Nevertheless, all of this is irrelevant to the discussion of whether Miami is holding its own in attracting and retaining millennials.  If it's in decline, census numbers would reflect this.  They don't.

well to be technical the jury is still out on that.  Miami seems to think that they aren't, but what do they know?

Seeking to improve is not an indicator of decline.  Quite frankly, every major city is seeking or desires to improve, including Jacksonville.  Some just happen to be more successful than others.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:32:18 PM
So is the census!
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:47:46 PM
Stop being like COJ  does with downtown revitalization by making this more complicated than it has to be.

You do know that the City of Miami and Miami-Dade County are two different things....right? What's Miami's?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 01:55:33 PM
so what is it?
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: I-10east on May 29, 2013, 02:19:09 PM
Bottomline, Jax is still lightyears behind every other metro's population growth. We will never catch up because *insert negative rhetoric*....and the leadership is seemingly *more pessimistic propaganda*....So we need to get our heads out of our arses. Hopefully that's a good dose of anti-complacency for the day, whatever that means...
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 03:28:43 PM
Let me simplify this.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Miami added 17,165 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_11_5YR_DP05

Census estimates suggest Miami added 14,435 residents between 2010 and 2010.  If percentages have remained the same, that means the 20-34 age group has added 3,640 people in two years.  Considering the entire city is only 35 square miles (roughly the same size as Jacksonville's urban core), I'd say that's holding its own.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 03:50:42 PM
Based on the change in actual numbers for this age group that's provided by the US Census Bureau, my point has always been that Miami is holding its own when it comes to attracting and retaining the millennial generation. 

If Simms argument suggests otherwise, then it's inaccurate according to the numbers for this age group in Miami, as defined by the US Census.  If we're selectively deciding who is a millennial and who isn't, which is the only way one can suggest that Latin Americans scare away millennials, everything is opinionated based upon each individual's own perspective.

As for accuracy, I'll accept the census data as factual over opinions posted in an online discussion board.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 29, 2013, 04:48:10 PM
2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

I believe the appropriate word here would be....BOOM!
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 06:26:49 PM
Don't forget to post the original comment that lead to this discussion:

Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials

This comment is proven by the following:

1. Definition of Millennial

Quote
Main Entry:      millennial generation
Part of Speech:      n
Definition:      a term used to refer to the generation, born from 1980 onward, brought up using digital technology and mass media; the children of Baby Boomers; also called Generation Y
Etymology:      1991
Usage:      also millennial (adj., n.)

source: http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/millennial+generation

2. 2010 census numbers of Millennial age group residing in Miami, compared with same age group from 2010 census

Let me simplify this.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Miami added 17,165 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_11_5YR_DP05

Census estimates suggest Miami added 14,435 residents between 2010 and 2010.  If percentages have remained the same, that means the 20-34 age group has added 3,640 people in two years.  Considering the entire city is only 35 square miles (roughly the same size as Jacksonville's urban core), I'd say that's holding its own.

So what's the disagreement with tufsu1's statement above? Numbers show decent growth within this age group in Miami over the last decade.

If growth isn't considered to be an indicator of doing fine (btw, which does not mean there isn't room for improvement) in keeping/attracting millennials, what is?

Nobody ever mentioned or cares outside of you and Simms if it's top 10 or whatever.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 29, 2013, 07:07:41 PM
Jacksonville is also young - but would you call it a Millennial market?  LoL  Let's get serious here.  Denver is a Millennial market.  Not only is it young, it attracts a wide range of Millennials from all over and provides high paying jobs for them, as well as the quality of life they desire.  JOBS is the key.  JOBS for everyone.  Young/growing industries, too.

Miami is young for other reasons.  It doesn't have the robust job market, and it doesn't offer the lifestyle that many millennials stereotypically seek.  It's antithetical to what most young people want.

dude....have you been to Miami lately?  Not that I want to lump all young people together, but I think they are often looking for a lively music & cultural scene, a multitude of dining options, lots of recreational opportunities, and often hip cool urban housing....all of which Miami (and Miami Beach) have in abundance!

as for Jacksonville and millenials....the same data source that said 18-34 year olds make up 24% of Miami-Dade population says Duval is also at 24%....a key difference here vs. Miami would be the # of folks in the Navy...btw, do they count as millenials to you?


This goes along with mincing of words/definitions/labels, I suppose.  I brought up the fact that Jax was a "young" city, too, and then my words were "but is it a "Millennial" city?".  So I guess I'm being exclusionary here and I'll confess to that.

To answer your question, yes I've been to Miami lately (although not in 2013, but several times over 2012).  I worked on a deal there for 12 months and have other more intimate connections to the city outside of work.

I think Miami has A LOT to offer visitors and wealthy people, and because of the inherent predominant language/culture and its location, it serves as the #1 gateway for Latin Americans and overall is one of the largest gateways in America.

I don't think it has as much to offer young residents of the city because it's so expensive and nothing seems catered to the middle/lower/upper middle class residents.  What is available to them invites a competitive situation whereby average people must compete for limited resources, per se, with all these rich folk who occupy half the metro.  It's a very "exclusive" city and feels that way, and develops that way.  Sure there's a great food scene, but even in off the beaten path areas you pay a surcharge because of tourists and because of COL.  I had this complaint about Atlanta before I left - with the explosion of the central core, all these foodie farm to table restaurants opened, and all began to taste basically the same and they were all expensive, but the options for good cheap food or ethnic food were few and far between the higher income the area.

Sure there are lots of interesting living options, but they are all in expensive for sale areas.  Rentals are relatively sparse in the areas east of 95 and are very expensive ($3-4+psf).  The quality/quantity/payscale of the jobs offered in Miami does not reflect the superficially apparent quality of life, nor does it reflect in any way whatsoever the cost of living.  I don't even think pay in Miami is marginally greater than in Jax, yet the COL is certainly at least 50% higher.

As an easy example - pay in Atlanta is considerably more, the quantity of jobs offered in stable traditional industries is much greater, even in downturns, and the quality of the jobs offered is also higher, arguably, yet at the same time the cost of living is SUBSTANTIALLY less.  There's no arguing with that equation.  That's the equation that makes a city attractive to millennials, in addition to the little things that the city has to offer.


Lake - is there any way you can look into domestic migration?  I have a feeling that given Miami's ever increasing role as an international gateway, that much of the net growth in the 18-34 year old age range has to do with immigration.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 07:43:26 PM
^Probably, there are a ton of tables to climb through.  I'm compiling the general 20-34 age group census results of randomly selected cities (San Francisco, Jacksonville, Detroit, and Austin) now.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 08:29:21 PM
2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

I believe the appropriate word here would be....BOOM!

Im not sure that a 2% increase would fall into the boom category, tufsu, but since victories of this sort are obviously very rare for you,...please take all the pleasure you would like vicariously.

Saying that something is holding its own, is a very far cry from declaring it a hub of activity, after all. ;)

For what it's worth, here's the census data for the 20-34 age group for a few more cities, with links back to the original source:


San Francisco - 46.87 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of San Francisco lost 7,734 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  I'd have to dig a little more but I think San Francisco was hit hard in the early 2000s tech bust.  So recent growth may not have matched where it was at a decade ago.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 236,472 - 30.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 228,738 - 28.3% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1




Jacksonville - 747.00 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Jacksonville added 19,822 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. Jacksonville seems to be maintaining.  However, what the other cities have that we don't, is a more compact population of like-minded minds.  That synergy directly leads to a different type of prestige and urban environment.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 165,196 - 22.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 185,018 - 22.4% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Austin - 297.90 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Austin added 29,476 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. This city is hard to figure out.  A lot of Austin's growth is coming from an aggressive annexation policy. 

http://impactnews.com/austin-metro/lake-travis-westlake/austin-annexation-a-tale-of-two-subdivisions/
http://austintexas.gov/department/annexation-extraterritorial-jurisdiction-planning

Since 1999, they've added over 42 square miles of neighborhoods and more are on the list.  No wonder they caught and surpassed Jax so quick. 

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 221,588 - 33.7% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 251,064 - 31.8% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Detroit - 138.75 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Detroit lost 69,520 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  Big trouble here.  Losing 70,000 from this age group qualifies as...call 911! Just as shocking as the population loss, is the percentage decline of this age group.  Those who have the means and job opportunity, are fleeing rapidly. Perhaps this is why their business community is stepping up to the plate to turn it around since the city obviously can't.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 209,977 - 25.9% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 140,457 - 19.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1




Portland - 133.43 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Portland added 19,844 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010. Similar absolute number as Jacksonville but within 614 square miles of less land area to play with.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 137,454 - 25.9% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 157,298 - 27.0% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_10_DP_DPDP1



Miami - 35.68 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Miami added 17,165 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.  What's going on in Miami is impressive.  There may be international factors at play but they are still packing people into a small amount of land area. Keep up this rate of infill through this decade and its downtown will quickly fill up with pedestrians.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 77,287 - 21.4% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 94,452 - 23.7% - 20 to 34 years

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=DEC_00_SF1_DP1&prodType=table
http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?pid=ACS_11_5YR_DP05
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 29, 2013, 10:06:53 PM
This is like TUFSU's inclusion of Winn Dixie as a "Dining Option" in the booming downtown dining scene that he was trying to describe back in 2008 I suppose.

it would be really awesome if you could bring this up at least another 10 times over the next two years....and while doing it, ignore the fact that one can buy hot food and cold sandeiches at Winn Dixie
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 10:12:25 PM
Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 29, 2013, 10:24:19 PM
Atlanta - 131.8 square miles in 2010

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the City of Atlanta added 5,861 people between the ages of 20-34 between 2000 to 2010.

Census: Population - % of total city population - Age

2000: 121,240 - 29.1% - 20 to 34 years
2010: 127,101 - 30.3% - 20 to 34 years


Anyway, regarding Census numbers, sure they don't "lie", but they don't tell a complete story.

Everyone's interested in Miami now for a variety of reasons (heck, we are pursuing a few large structured deals there), but everyone seems to still jokingly ask "what IS the economic driver there?"  If it were "Millennials" and traditional knowledge/skill-based job creation as it may be in a host of US cities at this point, then Miami would be more of a no-brainer for most.  But it's not.  Throwing money at that market really takes an in depth dive to see what exactly you're throwing money at.  What I do hear is that more foreign $$$ than ever is flooding Miami, tourism is up, and interest from retailers looking for foot traffic locations in the coastal communities is fierce.

I'm totally not arguing that people aren't interested in Miami because I think it's seen as one of the most compelling target markets now for anyone with any amount of dry powder sitting around, and the optimism for and in Miami seems to be at an all time high.  I just don't hear conversations about Miami that mimic conversations about Seattle, Denver, Boston, Austin, heck Charleston SC.

Lake - for your subjective reasoning as to why Miami may not be appealing to Millennials, JOBS!  Before I even applied to colleges, I ruled out FL/Miami for reasoning of poor job markets that don't pay well or offer the opportunities that I wanted.  I applied to schools in Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Raleigh-Durham, New Orleans (paternal alumni connection to Tulane, didn't really consider also for reasons of JOBS as NOLA was still reeling obviously and is still lukewarm for high paying jobs for young people), and of course Atlanta (got in everywhere, but chose Tech for engineering...again, JOBS).  Also, culturally, Miami is about the most superficial and crazy backward city in America (perhaps moreso than LA?, where I've been visiting more frequently as of late).  I'm a nerdy, traditionally raised guy.  It was NOT appealing to me, even though I love to visit and party there.

SF is appealing because everyone here is nerdy to some degree.  I think the Millennial generation is pretty nerdy overall.  Miami is not a nerdy city in the least bit.  Quite the opposite.

It would be interesting, really for SF, too, if there are actually more people being priced out of the city than new people coming in (which would contradict Census, which has been notoriously wrong before).  SF is multiples more expensive than Miami and the pay is A LOT higher with more jobs, but it's not necessarily enough to cover COL for most people.  Young people that move to SF are literally all graduates of Stanford, Columbia, Harvard, Carnegie Mellon, Georgia Tech or insert world class university here.  It's not the best place for a starving artist right now.  Conversely, Miami has never been a super attraction to the well paid elite college/grad school graduates, pay has never been very high, high paying jobs have never been abundant, yet the city for a while has been pretty darn expensive and it's becoming even more expensive.  There's a dichotomy there.  Look at NYC - in the 70s when my mom lived there it was falling apart and relatively cheap.  Now anyone newly moving to Manhattan or parts of Jersey/Brooklyn is a millionaire because you have to be.  The jobs there pay accordingly, but you're likely not moving to Manhattan with stellar job offer if you went to local community college (at least nowadays).

I think these circular arguments are what perplex so many people about Miami because as a city/metro it doesn't make much sense.

Super huge, dense and expensive, but autocentric and not major/traditional job center.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 10:25:43 PM
Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

Im glad you think so, as they certainly don't support anything to the contrary of what I have said either.

I assume that we have given up claiming or agreeing with TUFSU that Miami is just a burning hub of Millennial relocation?

If that point is conceded, then my work is long since done. ;)

Lol, burning hub of Millennial relocation?  How did you interpret that opinion from this simple comment?

Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 10:32:29 PM
Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: tufsu1 on May 29, 2013, 10:35:31 PM
Also lake, numbers can be tricky things, especially when talking about age groups.  People have this depressing habit of continuing to get older.  So a person who was thirty two who moved to miami in 2001, for example, would presently be 44 or 45. 

Not exactly a millennial.

So while I applaud you for taking the time to accumulate so much data from 2000 to 2010, I regret to have to be the one to tell you that the data, as presented, is useless to the current discussion.

Feel free to tally up some numbers and present why you think Miami is failing to appeal to the 20-34 age group.

I've already closed and rested my case. My point has always been that Miami appears to holding its own.  Census numbers reflect this. To this point, nothing has been presented on your behalf that proves otherwise.

The reasons why may be debatable but that's not my argument.

Im glad you think so, as they certainly don't support anything to the contrary of what I have said either.

I assume that we have given up claiming or agreeing with TUFSU that Miami is just a burning hub of Millennial relocation?

If that point is conceded, then my work is long since done. ;)

Lol, burning hub of Millennial relocation?  How did you interpret that opinion from this simple comment?

Miami does just fine in attracting/keeping millenials

good question...inquiring minds want to know
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 29, 2013, 10:41:44 PM
As for Downtown Miami, this 2011 article suggests it's being fueled by young professionals:

Quote
Study: Young professionals dominate downtown Miami

Downtown Miami is skewing younger, emerging as an attractive location for young professionals seeking a more urban lifestyle, with incomes exceeding that of the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County, according to a new study.

The Miami Downtown Development Authority’s Population & Demographic Profile Study indicates that 57 percent of residents were age 20 to 44 and had a per capita income that is higher than both Miami and the county.
The study also shows the number of households has increased 93 percent since 2000.

There were 23,000 new residential units delivered in Miami between 2003 and 2010. The area’s population stands at about 72,000 people as of midyear, representing a 9 percent increase, year-over-year, and outpacing the 6.8 percent growth rate experienced during the previous decade, according to the DDA.

The area’s per capita income grew by 39 percent from 2000, and far exceeded that of the city of Miami and Miami-Dade County. Additionally, more than 65 percent of employed downtown residents work as professionals, with an average household income of $43,992.

“The influx of new residents is transforming the area into a 24-7 urban community and is having a ripple effect by attracting additional investments to the area,” DDA Executive Director Alyce Robertson said in a statement.

According to the report, downtown Miami's rapidly expanding population is generating growing demand for retail, restaurants, entertainment and cultural facilities, as well as enhancing the area’s drawing power as an international destination for business and tourism. As a result of this population growth, retail has flourished, with more than 200 new restaurants and shops opening since 2005, with many catering to the younger demographic.

Major mixed-use projects such as Genting Group’s Resorts World Miami, Swire Properties' Brickell CitiCentre and Espacio USA’s 1400 Biscayne Center project are examples of international developers betting big on downtown Miami’s future. The $3.8 billion Resorts Worth Miami might include gambling if the Florida Legislature approves it.

New residential condominiums are also in the works, with both Newgard Development Group and The Related Group planning towers.

“Downtown Miami’s vibrancy is unheralded considering the general state of the U.S. economic recovery,” said report co-author Craig Werley, of Focus Real Estate Advisors, in a statement. “This report confirms the district’s long-term viability and role as Florida’s most critical economic engine.”

http://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2011/11/22/downtown-miami-is-regions.html?page=all
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 30, 2013, 04:45:22 AM
Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.


I can't believe this thread got on this much of a tangent!  The fact that the three most serious debaters on Metrojacksonville are going crazy (you, me and Stephen) over what's driving or not driving Millennial growth in Miami is indicative of the fact that the city/metro is soooo perplexing.

Lake, you're in architecture...so if you have a job I have a job, literally, since we're tied to the same industry.  If Miami has construction, that means there is investor interest...which likely means we are there!  (we are)  To be candid, my shift has focused to the west coast and I work primarily in a fund that has four designated target markets whereby a certain $ amount has to be allocated to two asset classes within these four markets, obviously Miami is not one of these markets.  But it's a market of interest to this fund, and another I work in.  It's crazy confusing.

Honestly, I don't think the surge in real estate activity is driven by the 20-34 age group, which would be driven by a heated job market.  I think relative to the state and the city, historically, the job market's pretty hot, but when you put Miami up against Atlanta, which also got hit HARD, or Houston/Dallas/Austin, DC, Denver, Boston, NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, LA, SF, etc etc it can't hold a candle in quality or quantity job creation for 20-34 year olds.  That drives construction, which you see in these markets.  What you see in Miami is construction driven by foreigners, I think, and tourism.

What also drives construction towards larger projects is the fact that the city has barriers and is built out.  I have walked Brickell Ave multiple times within the past year or two (our corporate hotel is the new JW in DT).  I am out scouring for people and places.  Miami is IMPRESSIVE to me.  It's a big city.  But it can't hold a candle in any which way to SF, in any way.  In Atlanta you have a low enough COL and a high enough pay whereby 26 year olds (friend in town visiting I saw tonight, who is from Boston and went to undergrad with me in Atl) are buying 2 BR condos in the city...and he is a stock trader and can tell you legitimately what he does, something that seems rare for lots of people in SoFla.  You don't have that in Miami unless they have sponsors (i.e. foreign parents with money).
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 30, 2013, 06:49:00 AM
really?

maybe because your comment was in response to this?


On the other hand, I find what's happening in Miami very impressive.  We know for a fact that those 14,000 new residents were all infill urban growth.  By the same token, it's interesting to see that this growth is also taking place in adjacent compact urban centers like Miami Beach and Hialeah as well.

I'd love more details as to the nature of the growth in Miami.  It's my understanding that the bulk of new construction in Miami and South FL remains luxury for sale condos in coastal areas, some affordable housing projects in north/central Miami, and tourist-driven retail and mega-projects in the coastal areas.  I don't see young 18-32 year old college grads and young professionals flocking to South FL like they are currently flocking to a few markets in TX, CA, WA, DC and other more traditional education-based employment centers.  I believe it's still flight money/investment home buyers tied to foreign residents and northern residents making Miami their primary, even if they don't live there year round.

Otherwise I think you'd hear more "employment" announcements (not related to service industry) and corporate announcements tied to Miami, and actual office construction, versus the luxury high rise communities still sprouting up like weeds that cater to a different clientele.

I stand by that statement. Adding +14,000 residents to a 35 square mile area with a population density of over 11,000 people per square mile is very impressive.  Imagine what Jax would look like if it added that many residents to the Northside, downtown, Riverside, Murray Hill, and San Marco over a two year period?  Heck, right now, Riverside/Avondale is still losing population but several believe it's bursting at the seams! They'd go haywire if the neighborhood had the level of redevelopment and infill pressure currently occurring in some of Miami's neighborhoods.

I don't see how anyone who claims to understand urbanism can believe that Miami's general population growth isn't impressive.  However, that statement was made in line with the actual topic of this thread (um, "2012 City Population Estimates Released) and had nothing to do with a certain age group within that population.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 30, 2013, 07:01:30 AM
Simms3, Miami is perplexing. I think we all can agree that it is a non-traditional place with international appeal.  You'll get no argument from me that it is a top relocation spot for millennials or not.  I'm not sure why Stephen is attempting to push the conversation in that direction. However, no one can deny is still drawing them some type of way, which equates to holding it's own.

As for job prospects, what year did you come out of school?  If it was between 2007-2010, it was a horrible place.  However, it was one of the top spots in the country that took the full blow of the real estate bust.  When I came out of school in 2001, there were architecture jobs there.  I'm not sure what's the current status, but the cranes are back.


I can't believe this thread got on this much of a tangent!  The fact that the three most serious debaters on Metrojacksonville are going crazy (you, me and Stephen) over what's driving or not driving Millennial growth in Miami is indicative of the fact that the city/metro is soooo perplexing.

I'm just debating with Stephen for the fun of it. :)  We both like to go head-to-head on topics like this every once in a while.

Quote
Lake, you're in architecture...so if you have a job I have a job, literally, since we're tied to the same industry.  If Miami has construction, that means there is investor interest...which likely means we are there!  (we are)  To be candid, my shift has focused to the west coast and I work primarily in a fund that has four designated target markets whereby a certain $ amount has to be allocated to two asset classes within these four markets, obviously Miami is not one of these markets.  But it's a market of interest to this fund, and another I work in.  It's crazy confusing.

Honestly, I don't think the surge in real estate activity is driven by the 20-34 age group, which would be driven by a heated job market.  I think relative to the state and the city, historically, the job market's pretty hot, but when you put Miami up against Atlanta, which also got hit HARD, or Houston/Dallas/Austin, DC, Denver, Boston, NYC, Seattle, Minneapolis, LA, SF, etc etc it can't hold a candle in quality or quantity job creation for 20-34 year olds.  That drives construction, which you see in these markets.  What you see in Miami is construction driven by foreigners, I think, and tourism.

Yes, it is a market driving by foreign investment.  It's one of our major gateways to the Caribbean, Central and South America.  What we may traditionally view as a language barrier may be viewed as a great entry point for those arriving from other countries. Nevertheless, I never claimed it's real estate activity was being driven by young professional growth.  I only claimed it was holding its own in attracting and retaining that particular age group.

Quote
What also drives construction towards larger projects is the fact that the city has barriers and is built out.  I have walked Brickell Ave multiple times within the past year or two (our corporate hotel is the new JW in DT).  I am out scouring for people and places.  Miami is IMPRESSIVE to me.  It's a big city.  But it can't hold a candle in any which way to SF, in any way.

They are different animals.  San Francisco's boom years occurred before the age of the automobile.  Miami's coincided with the age of sprawl.  Naturally, it's starting to infill in.  I wish we could bottle some of that magic and unleash it in our urban core which has done the complete opposite since 1950.


Quote
In Atlanta you have a low enough COL and a high enough pay whereby 26 year olds (friend in town visiting I saw tonight, who is from Boston and went to undergrad with me in Atl) are buying 2 BR condos in the city...and he is a stock trader and can tell you legitimately what he does, something that seems rare for lots of people in SoFla.  You don't have that in Miami unless they have sponsors (i.e. foreign parents with money).

I haven't really studied the Miami market in regards to young professionals.  However, I seriously suspect there's a niche there (i.e. attractiveness to those coming from other countries) that's playing a larger role in its growth than places like Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Nashville.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: ProjectMaximus on May 30, 2013, 12:52:12 PM
fwiw:

http://www.businessinsider.com/cities-with-happiest-young-professionals-2012-9?op=1

Quote
19. Miami, FL

Bliss Score: 3.679/5

“Miami is not only a hotbed of clubs and beach activity," Golledge tells us.

"Whether they are working for a large technology company, in hospitality or a retail organization, young professionals consistently mentioned that their co-workers and daily tasks influenced their overall happiness.”

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/happiest-cities-young-professionals-211721461.html

Quote
No. 2 - Fort Lauderdale, FL
Overall Score: 3.665
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 31, 2013, 07:33:20 AM
A couple of guys from Miami have been following this thread and don't agree with arguments that the city isn't attractive to millennials.  I came across these comments on another forum this morning:

Quote from: Bobdreamz;103800398
^ Not that I know of! By the way Lake I read that little exchange with "Simms" on Metro Jacksonville and the "Millenials" BS!  The guy bashes Miami every chance he gets then goes to our page on SSP wanting to see the latest projects.
 I guess he never thought "educated " "bi-linguals" & "hispanics" would want to stay in Miami after they graduate considering we have a ton of multi-national corporations who base their Latin American HeadQuarters in Miami!


Quote from: Bobdreamz;103800583
^From WikiPedia:
Miami serves as the headquarters of Latin American operations for more than 1400 multinational corporations, including AIG, American Airlines, Cisco, Disney, Exxon, FedEx, Kraft Foods, LEO Pharma Americas, Microsoft, Yahoo, Oracle, SBC Communications, Sony, Symantec, Visa International, and Wal-Mart.
"Simms" must be think everyone in Miami is working at McDonalds!

Quote from: QuantumX;103801701
He also seems to think nobody would want to live in Miami unless they speak Spanish, but that certainly isn't true.  Let me go look at what he said.

http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=1630282
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 31, 2013, 10:37:48 AM
^^^Oooooo.  If they're so concerned about out little casual debate here on MetroJacksonville, why don't you invite them to come post here, sounds like you are in communication with them (what'd you do go seek out these guys to elicit their expert opinions on another forum?  LoL).  This looks like it's meant to be a "jab" at me from you?  Stupid.

You've been pretty aggressive with me lately...I'm sensing spite!  Ha
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 31, 2013, 10:54:08 AM
By the way, why don't you kick me off this forum??  Clearly we don't see eye to eye - I have actually repeatedly asked Stephen to delete my account for a long time and I don't think he will - it probably adds at least an hour to my day as a distraction, every day!  LoL
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on May 31, 2013, 11:08:29 AM
Lol, I have no problem with you Simms.  I actually enjoy the discussion and the detailed posts you provide.  I find them very informative. 

I also don't have the time, energy or will to stir up people in other cities at other sites to debate on trivial topics like this.  I do work during the day to keep my lights on. :)

I'm a pretty laid back guy, so I'm not the type to take things personal on an internet discussion board and "kick people off" for not seeing eye to eye on every subject.

If anything, I was surprised that a couple of posters from Miami had been kurking on this website and following this discussion.  I simply figured I'd share the comments when I came across them this morning.  No hard feelings from my side.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on May 31, 2013, 11:49:39 AM
That's really funny.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on May 31, 2013, 12:41:41 PM
It still doesn't hide the fact that this site is a MAJOR distraction for me...somehow Adam W's profile was deleted and by request mine can't be?  This site is like crack for me - the only way to get me to quit is to take it away.  Stephen - you and me are friends on FB :)
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on June 20, 2013, 01:58:09 AM
http://usnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/23/18441345-urban-renewal-census-figures-show-cities-surging?lite

Quote
Big cities surpassed the rate of growth of their surrounding suburbs at an even faster clip, a sign of America's continuing preference for urban living after the economic downturn quelled enthusiasm for less-crowded expanses.

Farther-out suburbs known as exurbs saw their growth slip to 0.35 percent, the lowest in more than a decade.

...

Suburbs in the South and West also are seeing some gains, such as those around Houston, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Jacksonville, Fla.

New Orleans, which saw its population shrivel in the mid-2000s after Hurricane Katrina, continued to post the biggest increase in city growth relative to suburbs in the past year — 2.5 percent vs. 0.6 percent. Atlanta, Richmond, Va., Denver, Boston and Charlotte, N.C., also showed wide disparities between city and suburbs.

Other big cities showing faster growth compared with the previous year include Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Dallas, Phoenix, San Francisco and Columbus, Ohio.

In all, primary cities in large metropolitan areas with populations of more than 1 million grew by 1.12 percent last year, compared with 0.97 percent in surrounding suburbs. In 2011, the gap between city and suburb growth was narrower — 1.03 percent vs. 0.96 percent.

During the mid-decade housing boom, city growth had come to a standstill, while exurban growth rose by 2 percent, as the wide availability of low-interest mortgages pushed new residential development outward.

...

—New York remained the nation's most populous city, at 8.3 million, with the rest of the top 10 unchanged. Austin, Texas, moved up from 13th to 11th, supplanting Jacksonville, Fla.; Indianapolis slipped from 12th to 13th.

Nothing new here...I always take note when I see Jax mentioned in an article from a national media source, this one lumps Jax in as one of a few contradictory cities where overall growth is slowed from before and concentrated in the suburbs still...Not that US News means anything to demographers, developers, lenders, companies, etc, but it does get read and they aren't necessarily wrong (which isn't "good" in that it indicates that the jobs are all going to the suburbs still since the premise of the article seems to be of one that the poor economy is still gripping the job market and people are staying close to the jobs for safety, i.e. the cities rather than the burbs).
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on June 20, 2013, 08:22:47 AM
^To me, it reads like they are defining city verses suburbs by municipal limits of the core city.  That means, most of Duval is the "city" and our rapidly growing burbs are basically Clay and St. Johns County.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: Tacachale on June 20, 2013, 09:53:35 AM
^Yeah, that seems to be what they meant.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: simms3 on June 20, 2013, 10:53:05 AM
^To me, it reads like they are defining city verses suburbs by municipal limits of the core city.  That means, most of Duval is the "city" and our rapidly growing burbs are basically Clay and St. Johns County.

Agreed, but either way (SS vs SJC) they are lumping Jax in with the suburban growth crowd of cities (Phoenix, Las Vegas, Houston), as a sort of "bucking the late trend", and they are tying population growth to jobs and job security.
Title: Re: 2012 City Population Estimates Released
Post by: thelakelander on June 20, 2013, 10:58:56 AM
I don't necessarily view this as a negative.  Phoenix and Houston also have explosive core growth as well.  To me, our struggle isn't about limiting suburban growth.  It's more about making it fiscally viable and sustainable.  Ultimately, I'd love us to have a healthy core and burbs.