I would say the one strike against us is, yes, technically we are larger in population, but the density simply isn't the same. Even according to your own info, we have 200K more people with 615K more sq miles of city...
I am a big fan of rail, but for it to be effective it has to hit population centers. In our case thats the Beaches, Southside, Intracoastal West, Mandarin, the Northside, and the Westside, all of which are very spread out. Any rail that focuses on downtown alone, I fear, will be no more utilized than the skyway.