Jacksonville's economy likely to recover before other Florida cities, but when?
Real estate data aggregator Metrostody says while Jacksonville is poised to recover sooner than other areas of the state, the city’s climbing unemployment and 3.7 percent job loss rate keep a recovery on the horizon.
Anthony Crocco, director of Metrostudy’s North and Central Florida divisions, said in a release today that because the Jacksonville metropolitan area got a much lighter boost from the housing boom of 2004-06, its continuing fall back to earth will be less prolonged than in other cities in the state. And because Jacksonville’s economy also is buttressed by military bases and a shipping port, its recovery will be quicker than Florida cities that are less diversified, he said.
Hobbling the metro area, however, is a lack of job formation, Metrostudy wrote.
Between August 2008 and August 2009, Jacksonville metro lost 23,000 jobs. At the same time, the metro area’s unemployment rate reached 10.7 percent in September after holding at 10.6 percent for three months.
“While unemployment may be nearing its peak, a quick rebound in job formations is not forecast,†Metrostody wrote.
And while single-family home sales are back on the increase, slackening last year’s housing glut, foreclosures and short sales — sales in which a mortgage holder accepts less for a home than what is owed on the mortgage — are continuing to batter pricing.
“Unfortunately, distressed housing is still working into the market, and we expect at least another few quarters of high-volume short-sale and foreclosure activity,†Crocco said in a Metrostody release.
But, Crocco said, the pricing drops here appear to be stabilizing, compared to other Florida cities.
Single-family housing starts were down by about 25 percent in the third quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2008, Metrostudy wrote.
But there was good news when comparing home construction to the second quarter of 2009. The number of homes being built increased by 104 — from 916 to 1,020 — in the third quarter, Metrostody noted.
http://jacksonville.com/business/2009-11-03/story/jacksonvilles_economy_likely_to_recover_before_other_florida_cities_but_wh