Will Russia invade Ukraine?

[BridgeTroll]

Turnabout is fair play...

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/02/05/baltic-states-to-cut-energy-ties-with-russia-this-weekend-in-power-grid-switch-a87865

[BridgeTroll]

I'm keeping an open mind. Not gonna take the sensational, emotional headlines about Ukraine or Europe being left out of the negotiation. This appears to be simply setting the table for negotiations. Beware... the Russian delegation is professional, seasoned and has a solid well defined and established protocol to follow... hopefully ours will be as adept.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-riyadh-talks-trump-putin-rubio-0c3beebfef5839e9d509ff58239a6bc5

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) — Russia and the U.S. agreed Tuesday to start working toward ending the war in Ukraine and improving their diplomatic and economic ties, the two countries’ top diplomats said after talks that reflected an extraordinary about-face in U.S. foreign policy under President Donald Trump.

In an interview with The Associated Press after the meeting, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the two sides agreed broadly to pursue three goals: to restore staffing at their respective embassies in Washington and Moscow, to create a high-level team to support Ukraine peace talks and to explore closer relations and economic cooperation.

He stressed, however, that the talks — which were attended by his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, and other senior Russian and U.S. officials — marked the beginning of a conversation, and more work needs to be done.

[BridgeTroll]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russias-weakness-offers-leverage

Russia's Weakness Offers Leverage

By Christina Harward

February 19, 2025

Executive Summary

The United States can use the enormous challenges Russia will face in 2025 as leverage to secure critical concessions in ongoing negotiations to end the war by continuing and even expanding military support to Ukraine. Russia will likely face a number of materiel, manpower, and economic issues in 12 to 18 months if Ukrainian forces continue to inflict damage on Russian forces on the battlefield at the current rate. Russia's defense industrial base (DIB) cannot sustain Russia's current armored vehicle, artillery system, and ammunition burn rates in the medium-term. Russia's recruitment efforts appear to be slowing such that they cannot indefinitely replace Russia's current casualty rates without an involuntary reserve mobilization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown great reluctance to order. Putin has mismanaged Russia's economy, which is suffering from increased and unsustainable war spending, growing inflation, significant labor shortages, and reductions in Russia's sovereign wealth fund. These issues will present difficult decision points to Putin in 2026 or 2027 provided current trends continue. 

[Charles Hunter]

Interesting. But will Trump press this advantage? From his, and SecDef and SecState comments, it sounds like the Administration's position is to give Russia a hunk of Ukraine that they illegally seized, and isolating Ukraine from the west.  Is this part of the 'art of the deal'? Signal you are going to give the other party everything they want, then doing presto-chango and driving a hard bargain?

[BridgeTroll]

Interesting. But will Trump press this advantage? From his, and SecDef and SecState comments, it sounds like the Administration's position is to give Russia a hunk of Ukraine that they illegally seized, and isolating Ukraine from the west.  Is this part of the 'art of the deal'? Signal you are going to give the other party everything they want, then doing presto-chango and driving a hard bargain?

I honestly don't think the Trump team knows wtf it's doing. They have the advantage but Trump keeps shooting himself, Ukraine and Europe in the foot while seemingly giving concessions to Russia without concessions from them...Lavrov and company are seasoned diplomatic veterans compared to the rookie squad Trump has sent...

[jcjohnpaint]

"Lavrov and company are seasoned diplomatic veterans compared to the rookie squad Trump has sent..."

This is very true and what scares me the most.

[Charles Hunter]

I guess we can take it as a victory if the Ukraine negotiations do not give Alaska back to Russia.

[BridgeTroll]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia-has-failed-break-ukraine

Russian forces failed to break Ukraine despite expending tremendous military, human, and economic resources to multiple offensive efforts. Ukrainian forces continue to deny Russian forces the ability to routinely stage massive assaults in most areas of the front, forcing Russian forces to conduct the majority of their assaults in small infantry groups rather than significant mechanized or even motorized pushes.[112] Ukrainian forces blunted many of the Russian offensive operations and drove Russian forces to sustain these casualties for their slow and limited gains.[113] Ukrainian forces are conducting their own strike campaign to degrade Russian offensive and defense industrial capabilities, chiefly targeting energy and oil infrastructure but also including Russian military command posts, airbases, and force concentrations.[114] Ukrainian forces launched their incursion into Kursk Oblast which has drawn and fixed Russian forces from across the theater, reportedly spoiled additional Russian offensive pushes across Ukraine's northern border, and forced Russia to rely on North Korean military personnel to defend its territory.[115] Russian forces continue to make tactical gains, especially in Russia’s priority sectors of the frontline, but Ukraine’s defense has forced Russian forces to pay substantial costs for advances that remain far below a rate normal for modern mechanized militaries and that are not sustainable in the medium term. Russia’s offensive operations as of Winter 2024-2025 are slowing down and do not threaten to break the Ukrainian frontline anytime in the near term, assuming US and Western support continues...

[BridgeTroll]

It begins....

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-13-2025

Russian Presidential Aide and former Security Council Secretary Patrushev threateningly claimed that the Gulf of Finland has a historical "geographic affiliation with Russia" and that "it should not be forgotten that Finland was part of the Russian Empire." Patrushev claimed that the Russian Empire "respected" and "preserved" the Finnish people and language in the Grand Duchy of Finland. Patrushev appeared to try to compare Russia's current war against Ukraine to the Soviet-Finnish Winter War in 1939–1940. Patrushev claimed that Finnish attempts to seize Soviet lands and "actively militarize" created a threat to the USSR and that Finland was "indiscriminately exterminating" the Slavic population in Karelia. Patrushev claimed that the West is "again turning [Finland] into a springboard" for aggression against Russia. The Kremlin has used similar false narratives about the Ukrainian government's discrimination of Russian-speaking minorities in Ukraine and the military threats that Ukraine supposedly poses to Russia in order to justify Moscow's invasions of Ukraine. Patrushev's claims that the UK is "orchestrating" Finland's and the Baltic states' allegedly threatening behavior are likely part of the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to drive wedges between the United States and Europe and to weaken NATO[23] The Kremlin appears to be using the same general narrative playbook that it has used against Ukraine and other former Soviet states but is adjusting its narratives to exploit any tensions among Western states.

[BridgeTroll]

Simply unconscionable,  unfathomable, unbelievable...

https://www.rferl.org/a/yale-ukraine-war-crimes-investigation/33351956.html

A Yale University unit that has played a key role in gathering evidence on Russian war crimes committed in Ukraine will close down on March 28 after the US State Department cut funding.

In an exclusive interview, the executive director of Yale's Humanitarian Research Lab, Nathaniel Raymond, told RFE/RL that the move was "a catastrophic blow" to efforts to document war crimes and bring people to justice.

Raymond said the unit was currently tracking the location of 35,000 children abducted from Ukraine by Russia. Abducting children is a war crime, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been indicted for it by the International Criminal Court (ICC).

"The loss of our work is another win for those who want to obscure the truth and who want to prevent accountability," Raymond said.

[Charles Hunter]

Well, we can't do anything to tarnish the image of tR*mp's boss, Mr. Putin.

Perhaps this thread could be renamed, "How much of Ukraine will tR*mp give to Putin?""

[BridgeTroll]

Well, we can't do anything to tarnish the image of tR*mp's boss, Mr. Putin.

Perhaps this thread could be renamed, "How much of Ukraine will tR*mp give to Putin?""

Perhaps his negotiation tactics are the same he has used in real-estate causing multiple bankruptcy... openly declare how much you want something... give your opponent freebies before even talking... then keep blabbing nonsense... certainly a winning formula...

[BridgeTroll]

https://warroom.armywarcollege.edu/articles/russian-hybrid-warfare/