Author Topic: Will Russia invade Ukraine?  (Read 103062 times)

BridgeTroll

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In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #361 on: February 09, 2024, 08:13:28 AM »
This Fact Sheet clearly refutes WDJF and MAGA assertions regarding our involvement in Ukraine... each line item comes with an associated link or notation at the end of the article for YOU to fact check. (You will have to go to the actual article for those links as they were too numerous to put here)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/fact-sheet-us-assistance-ukraine

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FACT SHEET: US ASSISTANCE TO UKRAINE

Feb 8, 2024 - ISW Press

 
US aid to Ukraine does not lack oversight nor has corruption in Ukraine diverted it.

Claim: US aid to Ukraine lacks oversight and is being misused because of corruption in Ukraine.

Fact: US oversight is extensive, and Ukrainian government oversight and accountability is extensive and growing.

Critics point to a recent corruption case in which a small Ukrainian defense enterprise embezzled $40 million from public ammunition procurement funds, without noting that the Ukrainian government caught the thieves and recovered the money.[1]
Ukraine has undertaken significant anti-corruption efforts within its government and defense industrial base enterprises as part of efforts to increase domestic defense production.[2]
President Zelensky fired the previous defense minister after domestic corruption scandals unrelated to Western assistance emerged, and his replacement, the current minister, is aggressively rooting out corruption.[3] The Ukrainian government is also leveraging the robust and expansive Ukrainian NGO community to assist with its anti-corruption efforts.
Ukrainian and DoD personnel have been working aggressively to continue to improve monitoring and tracking of US aid, and US DoD officials have stated that there is no evidence that US-provided military assistance to Ukraine has been misappropriated.[4]
84% of the funds for Ukraine in the current proposed package would go to US companies, the US military, and other allied militaries, not Ukraine, which would get hardware and training from those funds.[5]
Western-provided weapons are being used as intended.  Mountains of evidence show advanced Western systems being used against Russian forces in Ukraine.[6]

America’s NATO and Asian allies and other European states have committed more money to support Ukraine than the United States.

Claim: The United States is giving more support to Ukraine than Europe, and Europe hasn’t stepped up.

Fact: America’s European, Asian, and NATO allies have committed over $178 billion to support Ukraine, which is more than the US will have committed counting the aid package currently under consideration.

The EU and its member states have made available $148.5 billion (138 billion euros) - including its recently announced support package of $54 billion (50 billion euros) - to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.[7]
The United Kingdom has pledged $15.1 billion (£12 billion) in overall support to Ukraine since February 2022, of which $9 billion (£7.1 billion) is for military assistance.[8]
Canada has committed $1.8 billion (over 2.4 billion Canadian dollars) in military assistance to Ukraine since February 2022.[9] The Canadian military has also has trained approximately 40,000 Ukrainian military and security personnel since 2015, and Canada expanded and extended this program until March 2026.
Norway reached a multi-year agreement with Ukraine in February 2023 for a support program that will provide Ukraine with $7 billion (75 billion Norwegian kroner) between 2023 and 2027.[10] Norway pledged to allocate to Ukraine around $1.4 billion (15 billion Norwegian kroner) per year and had already provided around one billion dollars (10.7 billion Norwegian kroner) to Ukraine in 2022 and about $1.9 billion (19.9 billion Norwegian kroner) in 2023.
NATO member Turkey is building a new drone production facility and service center in Ukraine. Turkey’s leading drone maker, Baykar, announced in September 2023 that Turkey would open a drone production facility and service center for Bayraktar TB2 drones, which reportedly will become operational by early 2025.[11]
NATO member North Macedonia has sent 10 batches of military aid to Ukraine including Soviet-era military equipment as of November 2023.[12] North Macedonia is also training batches of Ukrainian military personnel and pledged to continue supporting Ukraine.[13]
South Korea is expanding its production of critical 155mm artillery shells to refill Western stockpiles and support the continued provision of ammunition in Ukraine.[14]
Japan pledged $4.5 billion to Ukraine in December 2023.[15] Japan also pledged an additional $37 million contribution to a NATO fund to provide additional support for Ukrainian defense in January 2024.[16]
Australia provided approximately $590 million (910 million Australian dollars) in overall military and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine as of late October 2023.[17]
New Zealand provided Ukraine with more than $48.7 million (80 million New Zealand dollars) in military and humanitarian assistance as of July 2023.[18]

Ukraine is not a “forever war” for the United States because Americans are not fighting this war.

Claim: Ukraine is another 'forever war' for the United States.

Fact: This is not an American war.  It’s another nation’s war against an American enemy.

Ukrainians are fighting this war, not Americans.
The US is helping Ukraine fend off the Russian attack to reduce the risk that the US will have to fight Russia in the future.
A Putin victory over Ukraine would embolden him and encourage him to test America’s willingness to defend its NATO allies, increasing the risk of a US-Russia war.[19]
Russian victory would also let Russian forces move closer to current NATO borders, forcing the US to commit more troops to the defense of its NATO allies.[20]
Ukraine is building up its own military and defense industry to be able to reduce its dependence on the US and will be able to do so if the US continues its support.[21]
Ukraine already has a significant defense industry and was one of the world’s leading weapons suppliers before the Russian invasions and is investing its own money and attracting foreign investors to dramatically increase this capability.[22]

Sending military aid to Ukraine increases America’s military readiness and reduces the risk that the United States will have to fight Russia itself.

Claim: Sending military aid to Ukraine degrades America's military readiness.

Fact: Sending military aid to Ukraine has enabled the United States to modernize its own military to be better prepared to fight the next war.


The US is supporting Ukraine in part so that the US won’t have to fight Russia itself.
The overwhelming majority of military assistance is going to build up the US defense industrial base.[23]  It is allowing the expansion of current production lines of essential military supplies that the US military will need in any future war.
The equipment the US has been giving Ukraine is mostly old and sometimes inoperable.[24]  The US is purchasing new systems to replace what it gives Ukraine, modernizing the American military in the process.
American allies are also reinvigorating their defense industries and modernizing their militaries as consequences of support to Ukraine, which benefits the US.[25]

The United States is not sending Ukraine a “blank check.”

Claim: The United States is/was sending Ukraine a "blank check."

Fact: The United States has not given Ukraine a blank check. Congress has appropriated specific amounts to be used for specific purposes.  Both Ukrainian and US officials monitor the aid to ensure that it is used for those purposes.
 
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #362 on: February 15, 2024, 03:04:20 PM »
Fyi... very long and very comprehensive.

https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/containing-russia-securing-europe/

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  Executive Summary

Russia is at war with the West.

Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while devastating in its own right, is only the opening salvo in a much larger campaign designed to upend a US-led global order that has maintained peace and prosperity in Europe and the United States for nearly 80 years. To restore stability, America and its allies must focus their efforts on containment, through a strategy designed to defeat Moscow’s ability to wage war now, and to disrupt its ability to even contemplate war in the future.

Russia’s attempt to remake the European and global orders by force has been long in the making, and it will be equally long in the unmaking. Restoring order will require diligence and vigilance from the United States for years, if not decades, to come. As the diplomat and influential foreign policy architect George Kennan recognized in 1946, when faced with an intransigent and intractable adversary capable of causing irreparable harm to American and allied interests, the only alternative to ongoing and escalating war is containment...

In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #363 on: February 16, 2024, 05:00:20 PM »
To the delight of Putin and Trumplicans everywhere... Navalny is dead in a Siberian prison and Avdiivka is about to fall to the Russian army...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #364 on: February 23, 2024, 07:18:01 AM »
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #365 on: February 25, 2024, 08:30:20 AM »
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #367 on: March 05, 2024, 06:26:05 AM »
As Putin and other mouthpieces have said repeatedly... Russia has no intention of stopping with Ukraine...

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Medvedev argued that the influence of sovereign great powers, like Russia, extends beyond their geographic borders, catering to a wider maximalist ideological interpretation of the “Russian World” (Russkiy Mir). Medvedev repeated Russian President Vladimir Putin’s previous statement that “Russia’s borders do not end anywhere.”[6] Medvedev alleged that a state’s strategic borders, which he differentiated from a state’s geographical borders, directly depend on “how strong and sovereign” the state and its authorities are.[7] Medvedev claimed that the more “powerful” a state is, the “further its strategic frontiers extend beyond its state borders” and the larger the state’s sphere of “economic, political, and socio-cultural influence.”[8] Putin made similar remarks recently that suggested that he views weaker states that are unable to unilaterally impose their will upon others, such as Ukraine, as having a truncated sovereignty.[9] Medvedev claimed on February 22 that Russia “probably” must seize and occupy Kyiv City, which he labelled an historically “Russian” city, at some point in the future.[10] Medvedev’s February 22 and March 4 statements suggest that the existence of a Ukrainian rump state in Kyiv Oblast — even after a hypothetical Russian-led negotiated settlement to the war in Ukraine — may be temporary and subject to future Russian attacks.[11] Medvedev also did not specify to where Russia’s “strategic” borders would extend should Russia’s “geographic” borders expand as shown in the hypothetical map he presented. The map is notably a conservative depiction of possible Russian territorial claims, given Putin’s recent geographic definition of Russkiy Mir encompassing the former Russian Empire, which includes parts of Poland, Romania, Finland, and Moldova.[12]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-4-2024
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #368 on: March 09, 2024, 04:47:59 PM »
If you are at all interested in freedom of navigation this article applies worldwide... not just the Black Sea.

https://cimsec.org/a-russian-lake-has-the-west-ceded-the-black-sea-to-russia/
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #369 on: March 10, 2024, 12:26:41 AM »
Surprised and disappointed that the Pope thinks Ukraine should throw in the towel with Putin.  I wonder if he would say the same thing if Putin invaded Italy. 

Ukraine needs more timely and higher levels of support from the West and if it got it, it would fare much better in this war.  The West should appreciate the toll that Ukraine has imposed on Russia given the great odds against doing so.  It is also much cheaper financially and in terms of people for the West to have Ukraine do its bidding for them. 

If Putin isn't stopped in Ukraine, he will go after Moldavia and Poland next, and maybe alleged ally Belarus or other previous USSR territories.  Not stopping Hitler after his first invasion was a mistake and this will be too.  It will only cost the West even more and escalates the stakes much higher if Putin follows this line of possibilities.  The sooner he is stopped, the better for the West.

Meanwhile, the Pope needs to avoid weighing in with a war strategy that clearly hurts Ukraine, the victim here.  Where is his criticism of Putin who started this war.? His comments are not good for him or the world peace he claims to stand for.  Expect Ukraine to be outraged by his suggestion.  If the war comes to Ukraine waving a white flag, that is for the people of Ukraine fighting with their lives for their country to decide, not "sidewalk supervisors" sitting on the sidelines.

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...."But I think that the strongest one is the one who looks at the situation, thinks about the people and has the courage of the white flag, and negotiates," Francis said, adding that talks should take place with the help of international powers.
"The word negotiate is a courageous word. When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate," Francis said....

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-says-ukraine-should-have-courage-white-flag-negotiations-2024-03-09/

« Last Edit: March 10, 2024, 12:31:22 AM by jaxlongtimer »

Charles Hunter

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #370 on: March 10, 2024, 08:37:59 AM »
And if the GQP candidate wins the US Presidency this fall, he will "end the war in 3 days" by "letting Putin do whatever the hell he wants" in Eastern Europe.

Treaties going back 75 years? Irrelevant if they get in the way of The Former Guy's love for, and fealty to, authoritarians.

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #371 on: March 11, 2024, 06:45:09 AM »
And if the GQP candidate wins the US Presidency this fall, he will "end the war in 3 days" by "letting Putin do whatever the hell he wants" in Eastern Europe.

Treaties going back 75 years? Irrelevant if they get in the way of The Former Guy's love for, and fealty to, authoritarians.

The GOPs behavior regarding Ukraine is nothing short of shameful.  While the Trump takeover of the party was my main factor in leaving the party... their shameful, despicable, cowardly behavior towards Ukraine solidifies my decision to leave my lifelong party and become an independent voter. No republican will get my vote this year...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

jaxlongtimer

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #372 on: March 11, 2024, 11:51:23 AM »
The GOPs behavior regarding Ukraine is nothing short of shameful.  While the Trump takeover of the party was my main factor in leaving the party... their shameful, despicable, cowardly behavior towards Ukraine solidifies my decision to leave my lifelong party and become an independent voter. No republican will get my vote this year...

BT, thanks for putting country over party.  While I have rarely aligned with GOP positions, I recognize today's GOP is really not the GOP of yesteryear but a whole different animal.  The party has been taken over by extremists and opportunists, not those who truly care about the people of this country and their future.

In my world, most issues are complex and not black and white.  Politicians of any stripe trying to make them so turns me away.  Unfortunately, the voters, too often, are looking for simplistic answers via headlines and sound bites and are not interested in nuances.  This is ultimately the greatest danger we face.

Regarding Ukraine, Trump is following fellow Putin lover, Orban, and saying, if elected, he will cut off all funding to Ukraine which will insure a victory for Putin.  Considering Eisenhower, Nixon, Ford,  Reagan and Bush 1 & 2 viewed Russia as a major adversary to U.S. interests, it's just another example of how the MAGA movement is not the GOP of old.

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Donald Trump won’t give ‘a penny’ to Ukraine if elected, Orbán says

Donald Trump will totally stop funding Ukraine if he wins the U.S. election in November, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said following a meeting between the right-wing figureheads.

“He will not give a penny in the Ukraine-Russia war,” Orbán told Hungarian state media Sunday. “Therefore, the war will end, because it is obvious that Ukraine can not stand on its own feet.”...

https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-donald-trump-wont-give-a-penny-to-ukraine-if-elected/

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #373 on: March 11, 2024, 03:57:05 PM »
I honestly wish they would stop calling themselves Republicans. They are not. Be MAGA or Trumplicans or whatever... they most certainly are not Republicans.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #374 on: March 12, 2024, 08:06:29 PM »
While Trump and MAGA pat themselves on the back...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-avdiivka-2e827b4cae4698b3f6b80a421447fab8

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With ammunition stocks running low, Ukrainians fought back with whatever caliber of ammunition was left in the warehouses. For every shell they fired, the Russians fired eight or nine, the men said.

“When you have different types of shells, they have different trajectories, and you have to calculate where they will fly, where they will hit. This is a kind of chaos,” Oleh said. “And the longer it went, the more we got this stew of shells for all kinds of weapons.”

Among the Ukrainian soldiers, the idea of retreat took seed. There were no reinforcements, no more ammunition and no changes in their orders.

« Last Edit: March 12, 2024, 08:08:37 PM by BridgeTroll »
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."