Author Topic: Will Russia invade Ukraine?  (Read 90660 times)

Jax_Developer

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #330 on: November 27, 2023, 08:52:30 AM »
Awesome post and welcome to the discussion!
Your maps illustrate Russian aggression over the centuries... whether seeking warm water ports or simply territorial aggression... Finland, Sweden, Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, and  Latvia know all about Russian intentions.
You mentioned Belarus, Uzbekistan, or Tajikistan... none of these countries are trying to exit the Russian sphere of influence. All of those countries have dictators sympathetic to Russia... they are not comparable to Ukraine.
Regarding NATO  provocation... if provocation includes accepting countries into the NATO protected umbrella then I  agree... Poland, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia and later Finland and Sweden are provocateurs.

You fail to mention the security assurance from the West in exchange for returning nuclear warheads, missiles, tanks, warships to Russia in exchange for security from Russian aggression. In 1991... Ukraine was in possession of the THIRD LARGEST NUCLEAR ARSENAL ON EARTH.

The gave them up for peace and security... this very simply a country that wants to escape the Russian sphere of influence.

https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-trilateral-process-the-united-states-ukraine-russia-and-nuclear-weapons/

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When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, Ukraine had the world’s third largest nuclear arsenal on its territory. When Ukrainian-Russian negotiations on removing these weapons from Ukraine appeared to break down in September 1993, the U.S. government engaged in a trilateral process with Ukraine and Russia. The result was the Trilateral Statement, signed in January 1994, under which Ukraine agreed to transfer the nuclear warheads to Russia for elimination. In return, Ukraine received security assurances from the United States, Russia and Britain; compensation for the economic value of the highly-enriched uranium in the warheads (which could be blended down and converted into fuel for nuclear reactors); and assistance from the United States in dismantling the missiles, missile silos, bombers and nuclear infrastructure on its territory.

Haha, I like my European History, and lived in the Nordic countries for a period of time.

Right my point with those 3 countries is that we are certainly “okay” with leaving some countries to be. I’m not sure the same could have been said in 1950. I think the states has declined, maybe minimally, as the world police. It feels much more late cold war, in that there are clearly “sides” now.

From the Russian perspective, the nuclear agreement with Ukraine is irrelevant. The only reason Ukraine, Kazakstan, and other former USSR countries have nukes was because of the Russians. They also have this same perspective with many of their old USSR “assets” if you will. As I’m sure it doesn’t need to be repeated, but when the USSR fell, things weren’t organized. Things did not happen maybe how they should have. (AKA WW1). Germany was forced to disarm their naval fleet, which was arguably the second most powerful fleet at the time. We all know how that story ends, and I think Russia has a very similar juxtaposition now. They feel as though they got the short end of things, and are looking to “make things right.”

I completely disagree with that stance, and I understand the USA’s willingness to intervene. However, the issue is very fundamental to Russia. Yes they have of course been territorial aggressors in the past, but Russia/USSR/Tsar have all been focused on power, and that power (for the last 500 years) has been measured through your navy/trade network. Russia has been a joke with that stuff, up until the Cold War. They’ll never relinquish what took their country hundreds of years to achieve.

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #331 on: November 27, 2023, 01:11:50 PM »
I believe we are on the same page regarding the history of the area and Russia’s repeated attempts to intimidate their neighbors. You say they will...
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never relinquish what took their country hundreds of years to achieve
... I take that to mean Ukraine is just the beginning. Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland among others have much to fear. Armenia is already feeling the pinch as is Georgia.

Russia was emboldened to invade Ukraine by western inaction following their annexation of Crimea.  Western abandonment of Ukraine will embolden Putin to begin working on the country within his sights.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

Jax_Developer

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #332 on: November 27, 2023, 04:01:36 PM »
I believe we are on the same page regarding the history of the area and Russia’s repeated attempts to intimidate their neighbors. You say they will...
Quote
never relinquish what took their country hundreds of years to achieve
... I take that to mean Ukraine is just the beginning. Poland, Moldova, Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, and Finland among others have much to fear. Armenia is already feeling the pinch as is Georgia.

Russia was emboldened to invade Ukraine by western inaction following their annexation of Crimea.  Western abandonment of Ukraine will embolden Putin to begin working on the country within his sights.

That is certainly the opinion of the FELL countries, and has been for roughly 20 years. Finland & Sweden in particular have very capable militaries for being such peaceful nations. I would agree it's why the west has taken a stand with Ukraine.

I guess I'm just not sure if Russia is really to blame, or who is exactly. One of those tricky circumstances where if you go back far enough it makes things blurry. On the other hand, I'm not sure why Ukraine didn't take their national defense more seriously in the past 10-15 years.

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #333 on: November 27, 2023, 07:55:34 PM »
I would contend Ukraine took the threat of Russian military invasion seriously especially since the annexation of Crimea.  Various western military special forces began training officers and senior noncoms in western tactics and weapons. Putin expected to take Kyiv in a week and crush organized resistance shortly after...  Ukraine fought brilliantly and ferociously before western aid could arrive. Unfortunately they believed the Budapest Memorandum would protect them...
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #334 on: November 28, 2023, 08:21:10 AM »
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #335 on: December 08, 2023, 05:07:19 PM »
An interesting analysis of the cost effectiveness of continuing the arming of Ukraine...

https://theins.ru/en/politics/267432

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  As Ukraine’s anticlimactic summer counteroffensive abates (and the Western media excitedly reverts to another cycle of hyperbolically dire assessments and forecasts about the war), it is easy to lose sight of the remarkable fact that Ukraine has recaptured over 20,000 square miles of terrain and continues to deliver a succession of tactical and strategic humiliations to Moscow. Most recently, it has forced the Black Sea Fleet to relocate its historic naval base - in occupied Crimea - 500 miles east to Novorossiysk in Russia-proper. through the use of harassing drones, missile attacks, and marine raids, – Ukraine has achieved a feat of deterrence the British, French, and Turks would have envied as far back as the mid-nineteenth century. This is to say nothing of Ukraine’s ability to strike well behind enemy lines via its hypertrophied covert action capability. The SBU, the country’s domestic security service, has reportedly blown up two cargo trains in Siberia, some 3,000 miles from Ukraine’s border, according to a Ukrainian source speaking to Reuters.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

Tacachale

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #336 on: December 09, 2023, 09:45:25 PM »
An interesting analysis of the cost effectiveness of continuing the arming of Ukraine...

https://theins.ru/en/politics/267432

Quote
  As Ukraine’s anticlimactic summer counteroffensive abates (and the Western media excitedly reverts to another cycle of hyperbolically dire assessments and forecasts about the war), it is easy to lose sight of the remarkable fact that Ukraine has recaptured over 20,000 square miles of terrain and continues to deliver a succession of tactical and strategic humiliations to Moscow. Most recently, it has forced the Black Sea Fleet to relocate its historic naval base - in occupied Crimea - 500 miles east to Novorossiysk in Russia-proper. through the use of harassing drones, missile attacks, and marine raids, – Ukraine has achieved a feat of deterrence the British, French, and Turks would have envied as far back as the mid-nineteenth century. This is to say nothing of Ukraine’s ability to strike well behind enemy lines via its hypertrophied covert action capability. The SBU, the country’s domestic security service, has reportedly blown up two cargo trains in Siberia, some 3,000 miles from Ukraine’s border, according to a Ukrainian source speaking to Reuters.

Nice. Sounds like the objective of containing Russia is being met.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #337 on: December 10, 2023, 08:15:36 AM »
It is... but the collective west must keep the supplies moving. The long awaited F-16s should help.  The Russians are currently on the offensive and have siezed the initiative on most fronts... but their losses have been horrific... untrained draftees and paroled convicts lead the charge.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #338 on: December 15, 2023, 07:15:06 AM »
In depth analysis of the consequences of various endgame scenarios in Ukraine. In short... victory in Ukraine is much less costly than a defeat. A defeat will almost certainly require a huge increase in military budgets for a decade at minimum... the American people are being asked to spend a lot of money helping Ukraine fight Russia, and it is not unreasonable for them also wonder what the financial cost of not helping Ukraine would be. This essay is meant solely to serve as a departure point for a data-driven and realistic discussion answering that question.

Please read...

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #339 on: February 01, 2024, 05:36:43 PM »
A very long read... give yourself an hour... this report covers virtually everything... History,  military, political, economics, alliance and more...

https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/containing-russia-securing-europe/
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #340 on: February 05, 2024, 08:20:00 AM »
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/10/10/why-russia-embraces-tucker-carlson-a82715



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Why Russia Embraces Tucker Carlson

When Russian state media scrambled to build a narrative to justify Moscow’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, they received what must have felt like a gift. Tucker Carlson, one of the most high-profile television personalities in the United States and beyond, used a March 2022 episode of his primetime show to give oxygen to a bizarre conspiracy theory about the supposed development of U.S. bioweapons in Ukraine.

The bioweapons conspiracy theory had been simmering in fringe online communities for several weeks, after a follower of QAnon stumbled across a decades-old Russian disinformation campaign, smushed it together with conspiracy theories about the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic, and then tacked it on to the events in Ukraine.

Carlson’s intervention shot this conspiracy theory into the stratosphere. He took this piece of regurgitated Russian disinformation and blasted it into the living rooms and  minds of middle America. By April 2022, a YouGov poll found that an astounding 28% of American respondents said that it was “definitely” or “probably true” that the U.S. had been developing “bioweapons” in laboratories across Ukraine. A further 30% said they were unsure.

It is astonishing that more than a quarter of Americans had been convinced of a baseless conspiracy that frames Ukraine and Washington as the aggressors and Russia’s invasion as an act of self-defense.

Likewise, it is unclear what role, if any, Russian state actors played in boosting this narrative to the point where it caught Carlson’s attention. But they could not have asked for a better outcome and almost certainly could not have achieved it without him. The bioweapons narrative was neither the first nor the last time that Carlson’s work has been of extraordinary value to Russian state media, but also to Moscow’s propaganda strategy more broadly. Carlson has emerged as one of the loudest voices opposing Western support for Ukraine, while continuing to speak positively of Russia and even Putin himself.

Leaked memos from the Kremlin to Russian state media in the week following the full-scale invasion contained instructions stating that it was “essential to use as much as possible fragments of broadcasts of the popular Fox News host Tucker Carlson.” His assertions that NATO and the West provoked the violence in Ukraine has clearly won him fans in Moscow.

Before the invasion, Carlson was occasionally mentioned on Russian state television and online media. He has since become a regular topic of discussion, with his ousting from Fox News widely covered in Russia. Ironically, though Carlson may no longer be on American television, he still is in Russia, where Rossiya 24 has taken to airing dubbed clips of his new webseries as a television show.

To be clear, there is no indication or suggestion that Carlson is intentionally collaborating with Russian state actors. When asked about Rossiya 24 rebroadcasting his content, Carlson said he did not know anything about it and had not approved it. Nor has he publicly responded to overtures by Russian talking heads and state media offering him jobs after his departure from Fox.

Carlson is valuable to the Kremlin’s mouthpieces not because they control him, but because they are fundamentally selling the same product. Their vision of the U.S. is one of a decrepit, decaying empire, bloated by liberal decadence and falling apart under the weight of its own hypocrisies.

But here’s the thing: Carlson is better at it.

Whatever else might be said about him, Carlson is an undeniably talented media operator whose finger is on the pulse of the American zeitgeist. Moreover, unlike Russian state media hosts, Carlson’s doom-laden portrayals of American carnage are delivered with a recognizably American voice, giving his words a ring of authenticity that Vladimir Solovyov or Olga Skabayeva could never achieve. 

 His firing from Fox News fed into this apparent credibility, allowing Russian state media to portray him as a kind of American Cassandra, who was unfairly cast out from Fox News and banished to roam the badlands of the platform formerly known as Twitter for his fearless commitment to speaking the truth.  

This is, of course, almost exactly the opposite of what happened. In reality, Carlson was taken off air in what he alleges was part of the settlement with Dominion Voting Systems in its successful defamation case against Fox News. The network was accused of promoting conspiracy theories about the 2020 presidential election having been rigged (Fox News has denied that Carlson’s removal was linked to the Dominion case).

Carlson is also useful as a weathervane for Russian state media as they seek new ideas to fill the news cycle with anti-U.S., anti-Ukraine and anti-NATO content. He understands where the deepest and most salient fractures in American society lie far better than Russian state media. He knows how the political and media ecosystems work, and which buttons to press to get the biggest reaction. 

This benefits Russian propagandists because it allows them to piggyback off Carlson’s knack for polarization. Russian news hosts take clips of Carlson’s shows and build their own segments around them, following his lead on topics and expanding on his narratives. In some ways perhaps it’s only the logical conclusion that one of them would eventually just cut out the middleman and make an entire show based around Carlson’s clips.

My colleagues and I at the Institute for Strategic Dialogue have spent years studying both overt and covert Russian influence campaigns. Their tactics may change, but their strategy remains broadly the same: stoking existing divisions and turning up the dial on polarization, rather than seeking to invent new issues with no basis in reality.

Most recently, I looked into a small covert influence operation linked to Russia Today that is run largely on Telegram. It targeted audiences in the U.S. and Europe. Guess what RT was doing with it? Mostly just sharing clips of U.S. cable news shows.

Russian state media understands full well that the U.S.’s own outrage industrial complex is far more effective at stoking division in the U.S. than they will ever be. When it comes to Carlson specifically, they seem to recognize that their main role is to help spread his message to as large an audience as they can and leave the rest up to him.

Because he will do it much better than they can.
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."

WarDamJagFan

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #341 on: February 05, 2024, 09:34:26 AM »
Good for Tucker doing actual journalism instead of just echoing the War Machine's talking points like the rest of our own state-owned media. It's pretty pathetic that simply asking the question of "Why are we so desperate for war with Russia?" will get you labeled as a Putin apologist and in many cases, a traitor. Meanwhile, the US State-Owned media continues its campaign to make sure people like Bridge Troll don't fall out of line and demand we continue to borrow ourselves into oblivion for the noble cause that is Cold War 2.  Because, 'Russia Bad. US Good. Don't ask questions.'

Tacachale

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #342 on: February 05, 2024, 10:15:01 AM »
He’s serving the War Machine all right, it’s just Russia’s.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

WarDamJagFan

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #343 on: February 05, 2024, 11:05:06 AM »
He’s serving the War Machine all right, it’s just Russia’s.

Indeed. It's such a shame he doesn't listen to our foreign policy experts. They've been nothing but truthful and honest over the years while always making sure the interests of their fellow citizens are first and foremost.  :)

BridgeTroll

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Re: Will Russia invade Ukraine?
« Reply #344 on: February 05, 2024, 05:32:35 PM »
Good for Tucker doing actual journalism instead of just echoing the War Machine's talking points like the rest of our own state-owned media. It's pretty pathetic that simply asking the question of "Why are we so desperate for war with Russia?" will get you labeled as a Putin apologist and in many cases, a traitor. Meanwhile, the US State-Owned media continues its campaign to make sure people like Bridge Troll don't fall out of line and demand we continue to borrow ourselves into oblivion for the noble cause that is Cold War 2.  Because, 'Russia Bad. US Good. Don't ask questions.'

Just wow... evidence of this biological weapons research hmmmm???
In a boat at sea one of the men began to bore a hole in the bottom of the boat. On being remonstrating with, he answered, "I am only boring under my own seat." "Yes," said his companions, "but when the sea rushes in we shall all be drowned with you."