Author Topic: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....  (Read 157615 times)

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5338
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #570 on: September 16, 2024, 08:01:18 PM »
Welcome, urban_!

Another interesting model is what Miami-Dade just did last month: a non-binding referendum on interest in expanding rail transit. Not necessarily voting on funding yet, but giving officials clear(ish) direction on whether it'd be worth putting the effort into planning out these kinds of systems to seek funding for. 80% of voters in Miami-Dade voted yes on that. I would not be surprised if such a vote in Jacksonville reached similar margins.

The straw poll would have to clearly, and explicitly, state that neither Skyway nor U2C technology would be considered should the City (region?) go forward.

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1731
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #571 on: October 11, 2024, 12:24:51 AM »
And just like that, the private market renders the half billion dollar U2C completely unnecessary.

We need to get out of this game IMMEDIATELY.

If it isn’t Tesla, someone else will come along and do it better, cheaper, more reliably, and a larger scale than JTA. 

There’s zero reason for the city to be getting into the AV game. They’ll never have the economies of scale of the private market.

Stick to the tried and true - fixed transit that will spur TOD.

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/10/24265530/tesla-robotaxi-elon-musk-features-range-price-release-date

https://www.theverge.com/2024/10/10/24267158/tesla-van-robotaxi-autonomous-price-release-date
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 09:47:38 AM by Ken_FSU »

CityLife

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2199
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #572 on: October 11, 2024, 10:55:11 AM »
Great post Ken. There are a lot of flaws with the U2C, but imo the single biggest one is that Jacksonville is being used as guinea pig by smaller time players. Since creating the automobile in the 19th century, Mercedes has come up with a ton of the major innovations related to the automobile. Toyota, BMW, and others have also done a lot to push things forward. Tesla is new to the space, but obviously has a huge influence and amount of resources now.

The winners in this game will ultimately be a Tesla or Mercedes (who have been partnering with Bosch on autonomous research). Sadly, for Jax, it is quite likely that some of those companies are already miles ahead of them and just haven't released their tech or findings yet. Like the US military, Mercedes (and others) do not immediately release it's technology, so that it can start working on the next additions to that technology, and therefore stay ahead of competitors.
« Last Edit: October 11, 2024, 11:05:29 AM by CityLife »

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2316
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #573 on: October 21, 2024, 01:48:00 PM »
JTA has announced that their Bay Street Innovation Corridor Open House, originally delayed by the hurricanes, will now be on Wednesday, October 23rd at 5:30pm in the JRTC Boardroom.

https://www.jtafla.com/media-center/service-alerts/bay-street-innovation-corridor-public-information-open-house/
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5338
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #574 on: October 21, 2024, 02:10:28 PM »
From the North Florida TPO

Quote
The TPO Board Meeting and 2050 Long Range Transportation Plan Public Hearing postponed due to Hurricane Milton are now scheduled for 10 a.m. Wednesday, November 6 in the North Florida TPO Board Room.

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5338
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #575 on: October 22, 2024, 11:01:05 AM »
From today's (10/22) Jacksonville Business Journal
[probably behind paywall] https://www.bizjournals.com/jacksonville/news/2024/10/22/miller-electric-to-use-t-mobile-5g-network-for-u2c.html?ana=e_JA_me&j=37166729&senddate=2024-10-22&empos=p5

Quote
A T-Mobile 5G private network will be used to connect autonomous vehicles on Jackonville’s Ultimate Urban Circulator, according to a release from the telecommunication company.

"5G connectivity provides the highest bandwidth and lowest latency communication between the AVs and the control center,” said Craig Bowman, Director of Technology, Miller Electric in the release. “This turnkey solution will enable the vehicles to navigate the streets alongside other vehicle traffic and will ensure the bandwidth we need is available to stream real-time video surveillance and two-way audio and video communications between passengers and employees.”

"5G is the key that will unlock the autonomous vehicle future that science fiction has teased us with for years,” said Mishka Dehghan, SVP, Strategy, Product, and Solutions Engineering, T-Mobile Business Group in the release. "I’m excited to see how this solution will support a thriving urban corridor and give visitors convenient and futuristic transportation options.”

I find this ... amusing(?)
Quote
Unlike other AV services like Waymo, the U2C autonomous shuttles will be used for mass transit with the capacity to transport more than a dozen people per vehicle.

Charles Hunter

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5338
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #576 on: October 22, 2024, 11:09:37 AM »
A light bulb went on looking at the picture at the top of that Biz Journal article



and this curious project in JTA's transit section of the Draft Cost Feasible Plan:

Central Water Taxi - From The District To Shipyard Development - "Implement water taxi service on the St. Johns River including docking, fueling, maintenance, and storage facilities" - Phases Funded: Capital & Construction (Partial Funding) $150,000

Is the bridge (that has been much maligned here) going to be a Water Taxi? How would that work? How much more than $150,000 will it cost for capital, and then the continuing operations cost?

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2316
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #577 on: October 22, 2024, 12:15:56 PM »
To my understanding the bridge concept has been dead for years now, it’s just that the old maps with it are still floating around.

Water taxi plans seem to come in and out of focus every once in a while, I’m not sure how big a priority it really is, especially when the development plans on either side of those stops remain years away. Does the city actually fund the water taxi operations that already exist downtown or are those fully private?


I find this ... amusing(?)
Quote
Unlike other AV services like Waymo, the U2C autonomous shuttles will be used for mass transit with the capacity to transport more than a dozen people per vehicle.

I mean they’re welcome to try and make this claim, doesn’t mean it makes much sense. Really the worst of both worlds, the operational complexity (“flexibility” as Nat Ford insists) of autonomous vehicles becomes a public expense but without the economy of scale that actual fixed mass transit enables. If the vehicles are full it’s harder to scale up for demand than a bus (especially when they can’t remove drivers like Waymo) and if they’re empty then you’ve spent the capital cost of a bus (remember, these AVs are not cheap) on something that’s harder to shift elsewhere and less likely (even than just a bus) to spur TOD that could feed ridership.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2024, 12:21:38 PM by marcuscnelson »
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

jcjohnpaint

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1577
  • Jason John- www.jasonjohnart.com
    • Jason John Website
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #578 on: October 22, 2024, 02:42:47 PM »
Uber is flexible too  ;)

jax_hwy_engineer

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 120
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #579 on: October 22, 2024, 03:58:59 PM »
Assuming that
U2C costs $400 million
The stadium holds 69,838 people
there are 11 home games per year
an Uber costs $20 each

we could afford to buy an Uber for every single attendee for every home game for the next 26 years for the cost we're spending on this stupid U2C.

Adjust for inflation and surge pricing and assume an Uber costs $50, and we can still do that for the next decade.

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2316
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #580 on: October 22, 2024, 04:41:00 PM »
Uber is flexible too  ;)

…which brings us back to the problem that's been discussed here for years now: what is the benefit to JTA (and generally the public sector) doing this?

Despite Ford's efforts the budget isn't there to compete with the private sector's spending, they've done nothing in service of (and loudly opposed) leveraging the advantages of being a public transit agency rather than a "nimble" mobility startup with things like larger vehicles or existing long-distance infrastructure, despite the million-dollar TOD study there's not really any evidence that TOD favors investing tens of millions around AV stops instead of fixed guideway infrastructure, huge amounts of this scheme are being single-bid contracted to a startup (Beep) that has existed for less time than this program. So what's the benefit? "Innovation?"

Assuming that
U2C costs $400 million
The stadium holds 69,838 people
there are 11 home games per year
an Uber costs $20 each

we could afford to buy an Uber for every single attendee for every home game for the next 26 years for the cost we're spending on this stupid U2C.

Adjust for inflation and surge pricing and assume an Uber costs $50, and we can still do that for the next decade.


I mean… no. You'd have to move them round trip, so 26 years definitely wouldn't be the term. More importantly, there's the cost of the roadway capacity and parking spaces and infrastructure maintenance for 69,838 car trips all at once, then the broader societal cost of having that many drivers filling the streets and slowly loading their passenger instead of doing other economic activity. That's not to say the U2C is good (it's not), but to illustrate that the city and its transit agency should be focused on finding ways to actually build a useful transit system that people will choose to use instead of trying to go from cars to cars that might try to drive themselves. There's no such thing as a great city built on cars, so unless we are relegating ourselves to mediocrity we should actually do something.
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 35209
    • Modern Cities
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #581 on: October 22, 2024, 05:55:04 PM »
There's already a water taxi between the Southbank and the Northbank. We don't need JTA or anyone else to launch a new water taxi service. If and when the demand comes, there's already an operating business that can add a stop or two to its route.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

jaxlongtimer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3613
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #582 on: October 22, 2024, 07:13:20 PM »
There's already a water taxi between the Southbank and the Northbank. We don't need JTA or anyone else to launch a new water taxi service. If and when the demand comes, there's already an operating business that can add a stop or two to its route.

Going back to  Alvin Brown days when he recklessly ran off a water taxi operator before securing a replacement and then struggled to do so, the water taxi is a very specialized service that should only be reserved for those who know that business well.  Such a service certainly doesn't seem to be able to support the heavy overhead that a government agency would bring to bear... it is more of a "mom and pop" business.

Unless JTA is prepared to subsidize it to the likely tune of 7 figures a year, it should spend the money on expanded bus service in the urban core that would do much more for Downtown and leave the water taxis to private operators who know how to work on a shoe string and still meet standards.

In my experience, the only "water taxis" I have seen that are government operated are larger ferry services (e.g. Mayport Ferry) that are much bigger operations and require much larger capital and subsidies to be sustainable.  They also typically run where alternatives are far away geographically, much longer to traverse and/or not even an option.  The only "taxi size" services I can recall run by a government agency are maybe small ferries within the National Park Service system.

Once again, JTA seems to favor promoting "sexy" visions at the expense of focusing on appropriate solutions that address core mission requirements.

I might add that there is nothing special about 5G as it is has been around for a long time and most home routers today support it.  By the time JTA implements it, 6G will be the likely standard and JTA will be asking for millions more to "upgrade" to that.

Quote
6G (sixth-generation wireless) is the successor to 5G cellular technology. 6G networks will be able to use higher frequencies than 5G networks and provide substantially higher capacity and much lower latency. One of the goals of the 6G internet is to support one microsecond latency communications. This is 1,000 times faster -- or 1/1000th the latency -- than one millisecond throughput.

The 6G technology market is expected to facilitate large improvements in the areas of imaging, presence technology and location awareness. Working in conjunction with artificial intelligence (AI), the 6G computational infrastructure will be able to identify the best place for computing to occur; this includes decisions about data storage, processing and sharing...

....6G internet is expected to launch commercially in 2030. The technology makes greater use of the distributed radio access network (RAN) and the terahertz (THz) spectrum to increase capacity, lower latency and improve spectrum sharing.

https://www.techtarget.com/searchnetworking/definition/6G

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1731
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #583 on: October 22, 2024, 07:58:56 PM »
^This is the bit that SLAYED me. The dramatic six-paragraph press release essentially saying that JTA would be using standard T-Mobile cellular service for their clowncars. The fact that JTA 1) considers T-Mobile 5G, launched in 2019, to be bleeding edge, 2) is potentially planning yet another duplicative service with an extra water taxi, 3) doesn’t know that the District was sold and rebranded almost four years ago tells you just about everything you need to know. 

jaxoNOLE

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 337
Re: Is U2C serious? Help me make it make sense....
« Reply #584 on: October 22, 2024, 08:23:53 PM »
Don't be so closed-minded! It's not another water taxi -- it's an autonomous ferry,  dedicated for carrying up to 3 U2C clown cars!!

/sarcasm (at least I hope so...)