Author Topic: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans  (Read 7946 times)

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1373
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2021, 06:34:19 PM »
There are going to be several town halls over the next few weeks:

https://www.jobsforjax.net/meetings/

Anyone planning to attend and point out the U2C?
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32550
    • Modern Cities
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2021, 06:44:58 PM »
I believe this is typical Jacksonville. All of nothing. No discussion or debate. Thus the only way to “stop it” is to vote no on LOGT. Similar to Lot J. Really disappointed.

This time, it will be different. Stay tuned!
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

jaxoNOLE

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 63
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #17 on: May 07, 2021, 08:08:39 PM »
There are going to be several town halls over the next few weeks:

https://www.jobsforjax.net/meetings/

Anyone planning to attend and point out the U2C?

I will definitely attend Group 2 to voice my opinion, but I'm leaning more towards a "higher, better use" approach advocating for the Emerald Trail instead of a direct attack on the U2C. While millions more for U2C is still a massive waste, if we can convince them to reallocate at least $100M from U2C to other projects, including the Trail, I would accept the compromise. Something about the perfect being the enemy of the good and all that.

In fact, it reminds me of Lot J. Killing the breadbox loan wouldn't have made the deal good, but it would've been less bad enough to pass.

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32550
    • Modern Cities
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2021, 08:48:29 PM »
I believe this is typical Jacksonville. All of nothing. No discussion or debate. Thus the only way to “stop it” is to vote no on LOGT. Similar to Lot J. Really disappointed.

This time, it will be different. Stay tuned!
https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/07/jacksonville-gas-tax-boost-could-put-150-million-into-emerald-trail/4994633001/
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

jaxlongtimer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1128
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2021, 10:11:14 PM »
Ennis, thrilled to see this movement!  A much better use of the dollars and will do far more for the urban core than the U2C (doesn't take much to be sure).  Now, if we can just get the remaining $200+ million repurposed  8).
Quote
Change in Jacksonville gas tax plan would shift $150 million from Skyway to Emerald Trail

City Council member Matt Carlucci said Friday he favors taking $150 million from a proposed Skyway conversion project and using the money instead for adding the long-planned Emerald Trail to the list of projects that would be financed by doubling Jacksonville's local gas tax.

The shift has full backing from Mayor Lenny Curry, his chief of staff Jordan Elsbury said.

"From a policy perspective, the mayor has always supported funding the Emerald Trail," Elsbury said. "This is a revenue source that can cover it and the mayor is 100 percent supportive of the amendment."

That amendment to the gas tax legislation would still leave the Jacksonville Transportation Authority with $229 million in the Jobs for Jax project list for turning the elevated structure where Skyway trains run into a system that uses autonomous vehicles that also can operate on city streets....

https://www.jacksonville.com/story/news/local/2021/05/07/jacksonville-gas-tax-boost-could-put-150-million-into-emerald-trail/4994633001/

marcuscnelson

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1373
  • Gen Z - Tired of the status quo
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #20 on: May 08, 2021, 12:15:00 AM »
Great step! I’m curious though, if the Emerald Trail is only listed at around $31 million to implement, where’s the other $120 million going?
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

jaxoNOLE

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 63
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #21 on: May 08, 2021, 12:27:42 AM »
Great news,  indeed,  though I fear the concept of the tax at all still faces stiff opposition. If the Carlucci amendment passes, I'm a solid yes on the package and will push my CM to be one as well. It's a far superior option to the Becton proposal.

Very encouraging to see the mayor's office backing the change as well.


thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32550
    • Modern Cities
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #22 on: May 08, 2021, 08:03:49 AM »
Becton's proposal sounds like placing a band aid on a bullet wound. $100 million in road improvements doesn't stretch far to achieve much of anything in a place that's nearly 800 square miles.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

jaxlongtimer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1128
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #23 on: May 08, 2021, 02:49:59 PM »
Great step! I’m curious though, if the Emerald Trail is only listed at around $31 million to implement, where’s the other $120 million going?

The $31 million appears to reflect only the direct dollars Groundworks is responsible for raising. 

Overall, once detailed design, engineering and bids are put out and price inflation over time is taken into account for each individual segment, like any project of this nature, these costs are sure to rise quite a bit and may already be doing so.

More importantly, Groundworks notes their estimate excludes many other costs that the City, FDOT, JEA, the Feds or others will be asked to fund above and beyond.  This includes the restoration of McCoy's (currently estimated at $60 million) and Hogans Creeks plus the acquisition of any additional lands.  They also note their budget doesn't include day-lighting McCoys Creek at the Times Union Building.  And, there will be some significant road, drainage and utility improvements/adjustments/rebuilds/replacements that are not in Groundwork's numbers.  I expect they will ultimately encounter many expensive "surprises" given the age of the areas the Trail will run through so a contingency allowance for that will be a must too.

There may also be a desire at some point to build an endowed maintenance fund to insure the Trail is maintained at a high level and not left to the whims of changing City budgets.

In the end, I expect the total project could easily go over $150 million but, even so, given it's impact on the City, it will be a bargain compared to the expenditure of similar or greater amounts on a Lot J, the AV Skyway or many other projects built or proposed by the City over the years.

Quote
The estimated cost for the implementation of the 19.7 mile system is approximately $31.0 million dollars with 6.8 miles of Implementation Tier 1 trail segments for approximately $13.6 million dollars. Acquisition is not included in the estimate. The Implementation Committee should assess acquisition costs several months prior to the beginning of each trail segment.
* The estimated cost for Segment 5 does not include creek restoration and daylighting of the creek. Further planning and design will be required to produce an accurate cost estimate.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1K2DvO0qiaWuB3lchIy2hkqf3zKRHF_rM/view
« Last Edit: May 08, 2021, 02:59:26 PM by jaxlongtimer »

WAJAS

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 53
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #24 on: May 08, 2021, 03:13:26 PM »
Now this is getting interesting. I know I was pessimistic that viable alternatives of raising the tax base would occur and was supportive of the previous list, but this is a big plus! If you want to compare to nearby areas, this would be a bigger trail investment than Orlando and Tampa have ever made at once. Orlando's network is bigger just because of the longer-term support.

Ken_FSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 819
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2021, 09:06:57 PM »
As much as I think the U2C is a stupid idea that’s destined to fail in spectacular fashion, I’d be a hard yes on the gas tax if $150 million was shifted from the Skyway into the Emerald Trail. That’s a huge concession from JTA. Genuinely believe that the impact of the Emerald Trail will be transformative enough to offset the losses from JTA dicking around with the clown cars. Can totally live with ~$750 million worth of quality projects in a $1 billion project list if it gets the Trail built. Let’s make it happen.

jaxlongtimer

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1128
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2021, 10:23:33 PM »
Compare this article's assessment of Tesla's autonomous efforts, effectively at only Level 2, to JTA's implication that it is approaching Level 5.  The article notes Level 4 applies only to "certain conditions."  Since driving on city streets today doesn't appear to meet the "certain conditions" standard and JTA says that they can pull that off, JTA is implying a Level 5 standard.  Given Tesla's big lead on development of AV tech and their reach for Level 5, true AV's, I am sure they would love to know how JTA has managed to leapfrog them so easily  8):

Quote
What Tesla CEO Elon Musk says publicly about the company’s progress on a fully autonomous driving system doesn’t match up with “engineering reality,” according to a memo that summarizes a meeting between California regulators and employees at the automaker.

The memo, which transparency site Plainsite obtained via a Freedom of Information Act request and subsequently released, shows that Musk has inflated the capabilities of the Autopilot advanced driver assistance system in Tesla vehicles, as well the company’s ability to deliver fully autonomous features by the end of the year.

Tesla vehicles come standard with a driver assistance system branded as Autopilot. For an additional $10,000, owners can buy “full self-driving,” or FSD — a feature that Musk promises will one day deliver full autonomous driving capabilities. FSD, which has steadily increased in price and capability, has been available as an option for years. However, Tesla vehicles are not self-driving. FSD includes the parking feature Summon as well as Navigate on Autopilot, an active guidance system that navigates a car from a highway on-ramp to off-ramp, including interchanges and making lane changes. Once drivers enter a destination into the navigation system, they can enable “Navigate on Autopilot” for that trip.

Tesla vehicles are far from reaching that level of autonomy, a fact confirmed by statements made by the company’s director of Autopilot software CJ Moore to California regulators, the memo shows.

“Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ,” according to the memo summarizing the conversation between regulators with the California Department of Motor Vehicles’ autonomous vehicles branch and four Tesla employees, including Moore.

The memo, which was written by California DMV’s Miguel Acosta, states that Moore described Autopilot — and the new features being tested — as a Level 2 system. That description matters in the world of automated driving.

There are five levels of automation under standards created by SAE International. Level 2 means two primary functions — like adaptive cruise and lane keeping — are automated and still have a human driver in the loop at all times. Level 2 is an advanced driver assistance system, and has become increasingly available in new vehicles, including those produced by Tesla, GM, Volvo and Mercedes. Tesla’s Autopilot and its more capable FSD were considered the most advanced systems available to consumers. However, other automakers have started to catch up.

Level 4 means the vehicle can handle all aspects of driving in certain conditions without human intervention and is what companies like Argo AI, Aurora, Cruise, Motional, Waymo and Zoox are working on. Level 5, which is widely viewed as a distant goal, would handle all driving in all environments and conditions.

Here is an important bit via Acosta’s summarization:

    DMV asked CJ to address from an engineering perspective, Elon’s messaging about L5 capability by the end of the year. Elon’s tweet does not match engineering reality per CJ. Tesla is at Level 2 currently. The ratio of driver interaction would need to be in the magnitude of 1 or 2 million miles per driver interaction to move into higher levels of automation. Tesla indicated that Elon is extrapolating on the rates of improvement when speaking about L5 capabilities. Tesla couldn’t say if the rate of improvement would make it to L5 by end of calendar year....

....As of the March meeting, there were 824 vehicles in a pilot program testing a beta version of “city streets.”  About 750 of those vehicles were being driven by employees and 71 by non-employees. Pilot participants are located across 37 states, with the majority of participants in California. As of March 2021, pilot participants have driven more than 153,000 miles using the City Streets feature, the memo states. The memo noted that Tesla planned to expand this pool of participants to approximately 1,600 later that month....

https://techcrunch.com/2021/05/07/tesla-refutes-elon-musks-timeline-on-full-self-driving/

thelakelander

  • The Jaxson
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 32550
    • Modern Cities
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2021, 11:38:38 PM »
I don't have much confidence in JTA being able to pull the U2C off as proposed. It's an expensive pipe dream at this point. You'd have to be looking at this thing through some seriously thick rose colored glasses if you think otherwise, based on the well known challenges that must be overcome. Now with this said, this doesn't mean that we won't light a load of local public money on fire in this R&D process.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

vicupstate

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3589
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2021, 10:38:23 AM »
Quote
There may also be a desire at some point to build an endowed maintenance fund to insure the Trail is maintained at a high level and not left to the whims of changing City budgets.

This is an excellent idea. This was done in Greenville for Falls Park and it has worked very well. Most or all of the money was from philanthropy, btw. 
"The problem with quotes on the internet is you can never be certain they're authentic." - Abraham Lincoln

tufsu1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11195
Re: Time for more real talk on JTA's Skyway plans
« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2021, 11:23:02 AM »
^ this is something that has been discussed for the trail system as well as potential riverfront parks.