Author Topic: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro  (Read 2445 times)

Zac T

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I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but the Census Bureau released the 2020 population estimates (different from 2020 census) and the Jacksonville metropolitan area passed Milwaukee to become the 39th largest MSA.

The Jax metro is estimated to have 1,587,892 people, a 26,000 person increase over 2019 and 242,000 more people than 2010. The next largest metro is Providence, RI with 1,623,890 people and Jacksonville is projected to surpass it by 2022 or 2023.

The majority of growth the last 10 years has taken place in Duval County (966,728) and St Johns County (278,715) which added 102k and 89k people respectively. St Johns county added 13,647 people last year, a growth rate of 5.2% which led every other county in the state and was top 10 in the country. Duval's growth has slowed the last 2 years mostly due to lower immigration levels.

36. Nashville - 1,961,232
37. Virginia Beach - 1,779,824
38. Providence - 1,623,890
39. Jacksonville - 1,587,892
40. Milwaukee - 1,577,676
41. Oklahoma City - 1,425,375
42. Raleigh - 1,420,376

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/vintage-2020-population-estimates.html

JaxJersey-licious

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2021, 02:21:33 PM »
You're totally burying the lead here. The REAL issue with the latest 2020 population estimates is how is Duval County still getting beat by Pinellas County!? I know Duval had a kind of slow start early in the decade but we cannot remain second-fiddle to these guys for another decennial Census and this will not stand!

For inspiration, I turn to the exact words of our DearLeaderTM "So, look. All I want to do is this. I just want to find 11,780 votes, which is one more than we have. Because we won the state! There’s nothing wrong with saying, you know, um, that you’ve recalculated,"

Well, it looks like this will ultimately be decided by the Supreme 2020 Census Court after all.  :P

tufsu1

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2021, 10:50:33 AM »
I think the County stats for Florida are quite interesting. Compare Clay and St. Johns populations in 2010. Then look at 2020. They used to be similar. No longer. Clay grew 16%, St. Johns grew 46%.

Nassau grew by 25% and Duval by 11%.

Growth rates for other large FL counties:
Broward - 12%
Hillsborough - 22%
Lee - 28%
Miami-Dade - 8%
Orange - 23%
Palm Beach - 14%
Pinellas - 7%
Polk - 24%

ProjectMaximus

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2021, 09:50:38 PM »
How long has Jax been in the 40 spot? Is this the first time in my life we're no longer #40?

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2021, 10:27:53 PM »
It will be a race between Jax and Raleigh to catch Providence. Or else, we'll be back at #40.
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marcuscnelson

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2021, 10:55:14 PM »
I think the County stats for Florida are quite interesting. Compare Clay and St. Johns populations in 2010. Then look at 2020. They used to be similar. No longer. Clay grew 16%, St. Johns grew 46%.

Nassau grew by 25% and Duval by 11%.

I imagine this is because all of our suburbs have had multiple large developments with thousands of new homes opened and built out over the past decade, while that mostly hasn't happened in Duval proper (save for maybe e-Town). Between Nocatee, Rivertown, Durbin Crossing, Shearwater, and Silverleaf in St. Johns alone, that's a lot of movement. Clay has a decent chance to see more like that over the next decade with the First Coast Expressway, and Nassau is also gaining from new projects like Wildlight.

I think for Duval the questions will be if we figure out downtown (the big asset differentiating Duval from the suburb counties), enable greater density (meaning lower housing costs and greater accessibility, needed for new generations with less buying power), and stop subsidizing the movement to the suburbs with new highway construction (which probably won't happen this decade).
So, to the young people fighting in this movement for change, here is my charge: march in the streets, protest, run for school committee or city council or the state legislature. And win. - Ed Markey

thelakelander

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #6 on: May 10, 2021, 11:41:49 AM »
I think a big opportunity is to cater to the increasing cultural diversity of demographic groups coming into the area from different places outside of Northeast Florida. All the suburban counties are about as White as they come. They'll never be able to compete or take advantage of the economic opportunities that come with diversity.
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JaxJersey-licious

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #7 on: May 10, 2021, 11:57:58 AM »
Even though Jacksonville would "technically" be the 39th largest metropolitan area according to the census, I don't think it has yet to crack the top 40 metro regions in the country just yet. For instance, many services and events considering setting up a location take into account  how well their business or event can be a regional draw. Also some regions are lumped in with much bigger metropolitan areas when over the years they have grown to being self-reliant economic engines of their own not so dependent on the major cities that anchor their CSMA.

The Census has Jacksonville ahead of Raleigh population wise since it makes Durham it's own metropolitan area. However both of those metros share a common TV/radio market with a regional reach of well over 2 million people. To go by the Raleigh metro area Census metric, Jacksonville would have to break off St. Johns and Nassau counties taking away over 350,000 residents.

I would also lump Palm Beach into as it's own separate metro area. Although it's technically lumped in with the Miami CSMA, Palm Beach and Martin counties along with the Treasure Coast has it's own separate affiliates for all major TV outlets and radio station formats and are barely reliant on any media broadcasting from Miami. And the CBD of West Palm Beach is also it's own regional economic draw and it's total reach is also more than Jacksonville's metro area. Now other regions like Long Island, Central New Jersey, Riverside and San Bernardino counties that have greater populations than Jacksonville could possibly be thrown into this mix since they have their own radio stations serving their areas, however they are not only more historically tied to and dwarfed by New York or Los Angeles they are also part of their parent city's television market and many of their residents commute to jobs in or much closer to their big city counterparts.

The Jacksonville metro will eventually be firmly ensconced in the top 40 metro areas since Providence and Hampton Roads are within their sights and are hardly growing at all. The regions growth has been extraordinary and kind of hard to get my head around in a way. Who would have thought little old Jacksonville, Florida would have more residents in the region than Milwaukee's entire metropolitan area in our lifetimes?       

 


Zac T

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #8 on: May 10, 2021, 12:33:05 PM »
I think a big opportunity is to cater to the increasing cultural diversity of demographic groups coming into the area from different places outside of Northeast Florida. All the suburban counties are about as White as they come. They'll never be able to compete or take advantage of the economic opportunities that come with diversity.

This is true. It'll be interesting when the demographic data is released but the main reason Duval's growth has slowed is because of a stagnant, possibly declining non-hispanic white population. All other demographic groups are growing rapidly. If post-COVID immigration levels increase, Duval's growth will pick up again. In 2014-2016, it was adding 14-16k people a year. Orange County has been facing the same issue the last few years going from adding 30,000 people 5 years ago to just 11,000 last year.

simms3

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #9 on: May 10, 2021, 03:32:19 PM »
The link is for "vintage 2020" Census estimates, based on the 2010 Census.  These are not official 2020 Census numbers, which I have not seen released yet.  Still, very interesting nonetheless.
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bl8jaxnative

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Re: Jacksonville surpasses Milwaukee, becomes 39th largest metro
« Reply #10 on: May 11, 2021, 11:07:50 AM »
It will be a race between Jax and Raleigh to catch Providence. Or else, we'll be back at #40.


Providence is racing backward.  Both will catch it, easily.  It's just a matter of which metro outgrows the other.