Author Topic: Atlanta Developer Shares Vision for $300 Million Town Center Development  (Read 4927 times)

CityLife

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Short of going full rust belt style, at a minimum, those that leave areas like Riverside, Springfield, San Marco, Brooklyn, Murray Hill, etc. will be replaced by newcomers interested in those scenes for a variety of reasons.

The landscape is getting more competitive.   The oldest millennial are hitting 40.   The single largest generation in our country is shifting from 20-somethings, primed to share a house with roommates and go out 4 nights a week to parents looking for a backyard and good schools.  There may not be enough in Gen Z to make up for that loss.

It's not as clear cut as that. Not everyone is looking for cheap tract housing 30 miles away. By the same token, some of the best schools in the region are in Duval. It will be interesting to see the results of the 2020 census to see if these neighborhoods are declining in population or growing. As acme54321 said different strokes for different folks.

Cheap tract housing 30 miles away? This Skinner project is 10-12 miles from Downtown, 8 miles from the beach, 30 miles to St. Augustine, 20 miles to JIA, and a few miles to the Southside employment centers. It's arguably the best location in the entire city for residential.

While Riverside/Avondale, San Marco, and Springfield do have charming architecture, there are also major deficiencies. Jax's urban parks are woefully underfunded and undermaintained, schools are bad, old homes are costly to maintain, and the interior design is typically not functional by 21st century standards. As I've said, Jax does not have a quality new urbanist product. If my neighborhood (Abacoa in Jupiter) was in Jax, I guarantee you that many people (even highly cultured and culturally diverse urban dwellers) would choose it over the In Town neighborhoods. It's an extremely bike/ped friendly community, with miles of greenway trails integrated throughout, pocket parks everywhere, a huge regional park, village squares with community pools, large alley's behind every home, a minor league/spring training baseball facility, culturally diverse residents, Town Center with shops, bars, and breweries, no crime, a golf course, major research institutes, and offices. 10 minute drive to the beach, 20 minute drive to Downtown WPB, 20 minutes to airport, and 40 minutes to Delray Beach. It doesn't tick every box of mine, but it's pretty close.

Fortunately for Jax, the developers of Nocatee completely screwed up and did not create a truly walkable/bikeable, new urbanist community, but if someone ever does pull one off in Jax in a prime location, I don't see how it won't attract a significant amount of existing or would be In Town residents.

FlaBoy

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Millenials want nice houses with backyards, nice streets, and good schools. I know more Millenial friends moving down to St. Johns for their good schools than just about anywhere else. The Historic neighborhoods are high in demand of course but long term, Millenials want security just like their baby boomer parents. The closer to employment centers (or the beach) that you can get a nice house with good schools, the more desirable.

Captain Zissou

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Clay County Citizen "Vision" exercises,deciding on what would become of undeveloped lands/ OAK LEAF suggested,inclined towards neighborhoods "Just Like Avondale".
Tiny homesites further west sprawl....Bingo!!

What you've just said is one of the most insanely idiotic things I have ever heard.  At no point in your rambling incoherent response were you even close to anything that could be considered a rational thought.  Everyone in this room is now dumber for having listened to it.  I award you no points and may God have mercy on your soul.

Tacachale

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Short of going full rust belt style, at a minimum, those that leave areas like Riverside, Springfield, San Marco, Brooklyn, Murray Hill, etc. will be replaced by newcomers interested in those scenes for a variety of reasons.

The landscape is getting more competitive.   The oldest millennial are hitting 40.   The single largest generation in our country is shifting from 20-somethings, primed to share a house with roommates and go out 4 nights a week to parents looking for a backyard and good schools.  There may not be enough in Gen Z to make up for that loss.

It's not as clear cut as that. Not everyone is looking for cheap tract housing 30 miles away. By the same token, some of the best schools in the region are in Duval. It will be interesting to see the results of the 2020 census to see if these neighborhoods are declining in population or growing. As acme54321 said different strokes for different folks.

Millenials want nice houses with backyards, nice streets, and good schools. I know more Millenial friends moving down to St. Johns for their good schools than just about anywhere else. The Historic neighborhoods are high in demand of course but long term, Millenials want security just like their baby boomer parents. The closer to employment centers (or the beach) that you can get a nice house with good schools, the more desirable.

There are wide differences in the population trends based on things like race, age, and wealth. While many Millennials are moving to St. Johns County, proportionately and numerically, that demographic is choosing Duval. As CityLife pointed out, a lot of that is happening in the Southside employment centers, but urban core neighborhoods are proportionately faster growing with Millennials. As with older age groups, the subset of Millennials moving to St. Johns County are disproportionately white and middle- or upper-class. So it's not like *everyone* is moving to this area, and it never will be.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

thelakelander

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Cheap tract housing 30 miles away? This Skinner project is 10-12 miles from Downtown, 8 miles from the beach, 30 miles to St. Augustine, 20 miles to JIA, and a few miles to the Southside employment centers. It's arguably the best location in the entire city for residential.

My 30 mile comment to bl8jaxnative as a general response that tosses everything from Nassau and Clay to Northern St. Johns in the mix. Not one specific development.

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While Riverside/Avondale, San Marco, and Springfield do have charming architecture, there are also major deficiencies. Jax's urban parks are woefully underfunded and undermaintained, schools are bad, old homes are costly to maintain, and the interior design is typically not functional by 21st century standards. As I've said, Jax does not have a quality new urbanist product. If my neighborhood (Abacoa in Jupiter) was in Jax, I guarantee you that many people (even highly cultured and culturally diverse urban dwellers) would choose it over the In Town neighborhoods. It's an extremely bike/ped friendly community, with miles of greenway trails integrated throughout, pocket parks everywhere, a huge regional park, village squares with community pools, large alley's behind every home, a minor league/spring training baseball facility, culturally diverse residents, Town Center with shops, bars, and breweries, no crime, a golf course, major research institutes, and offices. 10 minute drive to the beach, 20 minute drive to Downtown WPB, 20 minutes to airport, and 40 minutes to Delray Beach. It doesn't tick every box of mine, but it's pretty close.

Different strokes for different folks....even with young professionals from different backgrounds, cultures, social groups and races. That's one key thing to take away and consider with every type of development and nature. What may be attractive to one segment of the population (even highly cultured and culturally diverse urban dwellers...they're aren't all the same) will not have the same appeal to another segment. Some will view major deficiencies in new development along the JTB corridor as overpriced housing stock, a lack of diverse housing options, cheap construction, bad architecture, having to deal with traffic congestion to get anywhere, uncultured, unauthentic, lacking cultural diversity, amenities such as public libraries, etc. This is why cosmopolitan cities are such a draw. They offer a bit of something for everyone.

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Fortunately for Jax, the developers of Nocatee completely screwed up and did not create a truly walkable/bikeable, new urbanist community, but if someone ever does pull one off in Jax in a prime location, I don't see how it won't attract a significant amount of existing or would be In Town residents.

I hope Nocatee, this Skinner thing and more suburban developments can be developed to be more efficient, dense and walkable than their traditional suburban counterparts. I also have no worry about some In Town residents moving to these places, Oakleaf, Chicago, Orlando, Atlanta and a host of other places. The market is growing and large enough to accommodate a variety of scenes, both in the burbs and core.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

acme54321

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Millenials want nice houses with backyards, nice streets, and good schools. I know more Millenial friends moving down to St. Johns for their good schools than just about anywhere else. The Historic neighborhoods are high in demand of course but long term, Millenials want security just like their baby boomer parents. The closer to employment centers (or the beach) that you can get a nice house with good schools, the more desirable.

Being an older millennial myself, I can't think of anyone in our circle moving to St John's. We have lots of friends that are moving to larger houses, but mostly in the same general areas they were already in.  Different strokes for different folks.

Kerry

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Millenials want nice houses with backyards, nice streets, and good schools. I know more Millenial friends moving down to St. Johns for their good schools than just about anywhere else. The Historic neighborhoods are high in demand of course but long term, Millenials want security just like their baby boomer parents. The closer to employment centers (or the beach) that you can get a nice house with good schools, the more desirable.

It doesn't matter what millennials want - they can only buy the single choice they are given, and 99.9% of Jax only offers that 1 choice.  You can't move in to what doesn't exist.  Harry Selfridge revolutionized the department store in the early 1900's by putting all the merchandise on the shelves where customers could see all their options.  Investors told him he was crazy and his response was, "How do people know what they want if they can't see all the choices?"  Until then people could only buy what the sales associate showed them, and what they showed them was what the suppliers paid them to show.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 11:30:19 AM by Kerry »
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Fallen Buckeye

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Millenials want nice houses with backyards, nice streets, and good schools. I know more Millenial friends moving down to St. Johns for their good schools than just about anywhere else. The Historic neighborhoods are high in demand of course but long term, Millenials want security just like their baby boomer parents. The closer to employment centers (or the beach) that you can get a nice house with good schools, the more desirable.

Being an older millennial myself, I can't think of anyone in our circle moving to St John's. We have lots of friends that are moving to larger houses, but mostly in the same general areas they were already in.  Different strokes for different folks.
That's surprising. I'm an older millennial, too, and know lots of friends flocking towards northern St. Johns. A lot of them are actually moving from St. Augustine to be closer to work, but they like the safety and convenience in the burbs. I've seen a lot of younger transplants end up in that area, too.

thelakelander

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Depending on who you speak too, I'm either a young GenXer or an older millennial. I have friends around the same age that have moved to Northern St Johns, Nassau, the Beaches, the urban core, Bartram Park, the Southside, Oakleaf, neighborhoods like Arlington, Glynlea, etc. I also have another group that got frustrated or job opportunities in other cities and left Jax outright. I've had friends get fed up with Jax for being too close-minded and small and move to large cities like NYC. I have others who thought Jax was too big and congested and relocated to smaller places like Lake City. All the examples above fall within the Gen X/Millennial age group and all of them are college educated professionals. It's pretty similar with the groups of friends and associates in other regions. When you break it down, unless you're living the majority of life in a culturally homogeneous setting, there's no dominant trend one way or the other. People don't think the same and very few are stationary throughout life. Regions that can offer a variety of options to choose from tend to fare better in the long run than those that don't.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

thelakelander

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I can also provide you with personal experience living in a place like this proposed "town center". For those of you who don't know, I've been working full time in Central Florida as in in-house consultant at a client's main office since mid 2017. Although I've extended my contract and have no desire to shift back to my DT Jax office right now, I'm also not a real fan of Orlando and have no plans to relocate there permanently. The first nine months I rented an apartment at Colonial Town Park in Lake Mary because it was roughly 20 minutes from my office in one direction (during rush hour) and 20 minutes from Downtown Orlando (outside of rush hour) in the other direction. I initially wanted to rent at a SunRail TOD but the train would have turned my 20 minute commute into a two hour one, so I passed.

Replace the Skinner food hall with an upscale movie theater, a Publix and a ton of more stuff within a five minute drive and Colonial Town Park is pretty much the same thing that Fuqua has proposed. I'll admit, being able to walk to Publix, the banks and the sports bars were a convenience. Being able to get a coffee or brunch on a lazy weekend morning from multiple places (something you still can't do in DT Jax) was a plus too. However, I never got around to using the cross county bike trail or development clubhouse. I went to the expensive movie theater and visited the retention pond/park twice and never set foot in most of the overpriced restaurants and retail shops. After about six months, I couldn't wait for the lease to end. At the end of the day, I felt it was overpriced, cheaply built (got pretty noisy at night during weekend events and concerts) and I was still driving all of the sprawling Orlando metro area to hang out with different friends, cultural scenes and events. Ultimately, there was nothing there that made it a draw or something I felt I couldn't live without. Since the lease ended last July, I think I visited that place once to pick up cheap late night chinese food while staying at a hotel across the street.
« Last Edit: March 19, 2019, 08:24:30 PM by thelakelander »
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

Tacachale

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^There’s also the fact that “Millennial” isn’t just a generic term for young adults, it refers to a cohort born at a specific time, most usually said to be between 1980 and 1996 or thereabouts. As of this month, that means Millennials are aged 22-39. Generation Z are those born between about 1997-2012, or age 6-22. Clearly, people in their early 20s will have different needs and perspectives than those in their late 30s, including when they’re deciding where to live. And that’s beyond all the other factors like background, economic class and general preference.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

Lostwave

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Regardless of generations....

This development is going to really f up traffic.  Its already a mess off JTB at Kernan and off 295 at Gate.  This is just going to make it much worse.  Jax needs to work on infrastructure before adding more huge neighborhoods.  And I don't mean bigger roads... I mean more smaller roads.

Go to older cities, and there are more choices to get places.  Here everything is funneled through a few huge 6-10 lane roads that are full of traffic.  If you want to go from bay meadows to atlantic beach, you are screwed because you are fighting all the people going to neighborhoods like this, as well as people trying to pass through the city to get to miami or whatever.  Everyone going anywhere in Jax has to go on the same few roads... and most of them have a gazillion traffic signals. 

Kerry

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Regardless of generations....

This development is going to really f up traffic.  Its already a mess off JTB at Kernan and off 295 at Gate.  This is just going to make it much worse.  Jax needs to work on infrastructure before adding more huge neighborhoods.  And I don't mean bigger roads... I mean more smaller roads.

Go to older cities, and there are more choices to get places.  Here everything is funneled through a few huge 6-10 lane roads that are full of traffic.  If you want to go from bay meadows to atlantic beach, you are screwed because you are fighting all the people going to neighborhoods like this, as well as people trying to pass through the city to get to miami or whatever.  Everyone going anywhere in Jax has to go on the same few roads... and most of them have a gazillion traffic signals.

With my recent move to suburbia all I can says is Amen.  I had forgotten how few thru roads Jacksonville has.  We have essentially walled off each sector of the city from each other.  The river, I-295, I-95, I-10, the FEC tracks and CSX tracks have made it difficult to get across town.
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thelakelander

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Jax is really identical to the older cities, it just seems different due to consolidation. The older city is only 30 square miles but it's gridded and easy to get around. Like most american metro areas, it's the post WW2 suburban areas where connectivity falls apart. Since the Southside
fell outside of the city prior to consolidation and wasn't really developed until the 1970s/80s it is what it is. If applied to most older cities, it would be considered the burbs and probably a completely different municipality (or several) altogether.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali

Kerry

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But the vast majority of post-WWII suburban areas are gridded with subdivisions inserted within the grid.  There is an almost universal 1 mile grid in every City since Thomas Jefferson proposed it.  All of South Florida from West Palm Beach to Homestead to Naples to Sarasota is one giant grid, with only the Everglades interrupting it.
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