Author Topic: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?  (Read 1568 times)

Ocklawaha

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SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« on: March 07, 2019, 02:40:16 PM »
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METRO MAGAZINE FEATURE STORY:
Volvo Buses and Nanyang Technological University (NTU) in Singapore have demonstrated the world’s first 40-foot autonomous electric bus. The Volvo bus will soon begin trials on the NTU campus.

The bus is equipped with four Lidar sensors, which enables it to detect and stop for objects coming in its way.
The 85-passenger Volvo 7900 Electric bus is equipped with sensors and navigation controls that are managed by a comprehensive artificial intelligence (AI) system. Ensuring maximum safety and reliability, the AI system is also protected with cyber-security measures to prevent unwanted intrusions.
The Volvo bus has undergone preliminary rounds of rigorous testing at the Centre of Excellence for Testing and Research of Autonomous vehicles (CETRAN).

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GEORGIA TECH:
The list of concerns about self-driving cars JTA buses just got longer.
In addition to worrying about how safe they are, how they’d handle tricky moral trade-offs on the road, and how they might make traffic worse, we also need to worry about how they could harm people of color.

If you’re a person with dark skin, you may be more likely than your white friends to get hit by a self-driving bus, according to a new study out of the Georgia Institute of Technology. That’s because automated vehicles may be better at detecting pedestrians with lighter skin tones.
The authors of the study started out with a simple question: How accurately do state-of-the-art object-detection models, like those used by self-driving cars and buses, detect people from different demographic groups? To find out, they looked at a large dataset of images that contain pedestrians. They divided up the people using the Fitzpatrick scale, a system for classifying human skin tones from light to dark.
The researchers then analyzed how often the models correctly detected the presence of people in the light-skinned group versus how often they got it right with people in the dark-skinned group.

The result? Detection was five percentage points less accurate, on average, for the dark-skinned group. That disparity persisted even when researchers controlled for variables like the time of day in images or the occasionally obstructed view of pedestrians.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2019, 07:05:35 PM by Ocklawaha »

bl8jaxnative

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2019, 12:30:51 PM »
I was going to mention the recent study on skin color.   

I love the idea of robobuses in the abstract.  Wonderful.  The problem is that there's a shit ton of things the human brain is doing when operating a vehicle.    There are a shit ton of problems that need to be resolved before letting robobuses onto our streets.

Study:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1902.11097.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0XylkVZ-dRJZ_II6Me5200IWjvFYylQ1zInyZrlpwXFP6Ns7S7JZ7jeOc


The question is, what is JTA's plan B?  They're coming up on the end of life of their current Skyway fleet FAST.

thelakelander

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2019, 01:28:50 PM »
I don't think they do have a plan B. Thanks for posting the study link!
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KenFSU

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #3 on: March 14, 2019, 07:28:33 PM »
Hopefully JTA is paying attention to the Boeing 737 Max story.

Is 2019 the right time to hedge our entire urban transportation future on software-driven autonomous vehicles?

One bug or glitch can and will shut the entire network down for weeks or months at a time.

bl8jaxnative

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #4 on: March 16, 2019, 11:03:05 AM »

Can you imagine being in one of those robobuses as it drives off the bridge into the St. Johns River?

KenFSU

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2019, 11:27:37 AM »
Bold/not bold prediction:

Whenever JTA's new Skyway system opens, it will be on the existing elevated tracks only.

No universe where this thing is ready to operate in mixed traffic in three years, and no universe where you can safely mix the vehicles described by JTA into traffic coming off the Hart Bridge with the configuration described earlier this week.

We're going to end up with a less efficient replacement for what's already there, with the same limitations in terms of system coverage.


thelakelander

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #7 on: February 27, 2020, 12:47:15 PM »
Moving at 7.1mph?!
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jaxlongtimer

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 11:03:47 PM »
Help me out here...

If Google/Waymo and Tesla, leaders in autonomous vehicles. still haven't perfected them after millions and millions of miles and over a decade of developing them, how does JTA find mass transit vehicles that solve all the problems of autonomous vehicles in a fraction of the time with a fraction of the testing at a fraction of the cost?  And, I would imagine mass transit vehicles, given their larger size, would be even harder to program.  What happens after the first bad publicity and law suit from someone or something being hit by one?

It all seems too good to be true.
« Last Edit: February 29, 2020, 11:14:07 PM by jaxlongtimer »

marcuscnelson

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #9 on: March 01, 2020, 12:08:28 AM »
It all seems too good to be true.

That's because it is.

jaxlongtimer

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #10 on: March 03, 2020, 08:53:43 PM »
Help me out here...

If Google/Waymo and Tesla, leaders in autonomous vehicles. still haven't perfected them after millions and millions of miles and over a decade of developing them, how does JTA find mass transit vehicles that solve all the problems of autonomous vehicles in a fraction of the time with a fraction of the testing at a fraction of the cost?  And, I would imagine mass transit vehicles, given their larger size, would be even harder to program.  What happens after the first bad publicity and law suit from someone or something being hit by one?

It all seems too good to be true.

Wonder how many billions of dollars and those 20+ million miles are in Jax.  And still not there yet.  Wishing JTA all the best  8)!  Here you go:

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...Nowak puts a $20 billion valuation on Waymo while rating Google stock overweight. He calls the valuation conservative.

"The investment follows a series of milestones for Waymo, which has now driven 20 million-plus miles on public roads and 10 billion-plus miles in simulation" Nowak said.

Waymo Chief Executive John Krafcik told analysts that Google could eventually spin off the Waymo self-driving car unit.

Alphabet's "Other Bets" division, which includes Waymo, has posted big losses. Google's biotech business, Verily, last year raised money from Silver Lake and other backers.

"We're optimistic that Waymo's efforts to bring in outside investors could provide additional optionality over time, as the company gains financial and strategic partners as well as (potentially) a greater focus around the longer term transition to commercialization," Cowen analyst John Blackledge said in his note to clients.

He noted that Uber Technologies (UBER) valued its autonomous vehicle unit at $7.25 billion in 2018 when Toyota and others invested in it.
Setbacks For Waymo

Waymo suffered a setback in 2019 when it launched a commercial robotaxi service in four Phoenix suburbs but kept a human supervisor in vehicles so they could intervene in case of emergency. Without the elimination of human drivers, analysts say, the business case for self-driving case is much less compelling.

The holy grail for Waymo, General Motors (GM), Tesla (TSLA) and others is building a Level 5, fully autonomous vehicle. That kind of vehicle could go anywhere instructed, including unmapped areas, under any weather conditions. All autonomous vehicles use artificial intelligence software...

https://www.investors.com/news/technology/googl-stock-waymo-valuation-funding-round/?src=A00220&yptr=yahoo


jcjohnpaint

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #12 on: March 05, 2020, 04:23:55 PM »
I feel like JTA went from Crazy to Hopeful to Batshit Crazy :o

tufsu1

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thelakelander

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Re: SELF DRIVING BUSES - JTA's Newest Problem?
« Reply #14 on: March 05, 2020, 09:10:36 PM »
That would be lovely. Getting the basics right would appeal to the majority of people and be a much more financially responsible use of tax money.
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali