Brightline buying HSR operation between LA and Vegas

[ProjectMaximus]

Interesting. Note they will have 38 acres on the strip.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/2018/09/18/brightline-expand-california-vegas/1348336002/

[thelakelander]

With this move, are there still naysayers out there?

https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/brightline-to-build-las-vegas-california-rail-link/

[JaxAvondale]

As someone who routinely drives from Vegas to South California and vice versa, this is big news. This should make it easier on the Raiders fans in Southern California to get to the games.

[marcuscnelson]

As disappointed as I am that they're expanding west before completely serving all of Florida, this is huge. It shows a real commitment to maintaining and growing Brightline as a brand.

I wonder if they'll make the planned expansions to Phoenix, SLC and Denver too.

[FlaBoy]

It definitely makes it seem that a Miami/Orlando/Jacksonville/Atlanta route is in the plans.

[bl8jaxnative]

With this move, are there still naysayers out there?

https://www.thejaxsonmag.com/article/brightline-to-build-las-vegas-california-rail-link/

Naysayers to what?

For example,  I've maintained that there is evidence they couldn't secure the capital needed to build out HSR from WPB to Orlando.  This, if anything is further evidence of that problem.   In fact, it's an indication that they've put that line on hold indefinitely.

[thelakelander]

Going back five or six years ago, I'd define naysayers as those that believe the Brightline concept wasn't going to happen and was only being proposed for an ulterior motive.

In fact, it's an indication that they've put that line on hold indefinitely.

I'm not sure about this. Simultaneous investments and implementation happen all the time.

[bl8jaxnative]

Note that the original bond sales for the Orlando extension flopped.   And they flopped in the most capital rich, easy-credit market ever known to man kind. 

If they can't raise the $2 - 3.5 billion needed to reach Orlando, how is Brightline going to come up with $8 billion to build the HSR line from bum-fart-nowhere, Victorville, to the Las Vegas strip?

How does Brightline raise $10 billion in capital in the next 5 years ( and note that would put them way behind the timelines' theyve created for both projects )  ?  The question isn't is there a chance it can be done.  It's a matter of how it'll be done and how likely that is to happen.

XpressWest has been around for a decade, announcing and re-announcing plans to build a HSR from LA to Vegas.   First it was going to be Cali that would help them pull it off.  Then it was going to be Federal loans.  Then it was the Chinese.  And then it was the Raiders.

 None of it ever panned out for them. Their view of their likely future outcome is that they found that whatever it was that Brightline offered them was a better deal than whatever future $ they may get from the project.

Brightline has yet to find anything certain and big enough in funding to build to Orlando.  Xpress West couldn't do the same for their line.  And now Brightline's not only going to find the money, $10 billion, to start building not one but now 2 HSR lines next year. 

There aren't many universes where that ever happens, let alone is likely to happen.   Sure, it could.  But if I were a better person, I'd put money on Obama getting a 3rd term before Brightline finds the capital for both of those.

[thelakelander]

They were just approved to sell $1.75 billion in private equity bonds less than a month ago to extend to Orlando. Obviously they either have confidence to pull off their plan or they're outright crazy to take on a second project. Time will tell.

[fieldafm]

But if I were a better person, I'd put money on Obama getting a 3rd term before Brightline finds the capital for both of those.

I'll take that bet, message me your Paypal and/or Venmo info 

[bl8jaxnative]

They were just approved to sell $1.75 billion in private equity bonds

That's a political move that speaks nothing to their ability   Remember, they've tried to sell these bonds for years, since 2013.  To date they've failed to do it.

Maybe they'll pull it off in the future.  But their track record shows that they haven't been up to the task.

And now they're looking to take on yet another project, one whose history is the same, one with repeated failures to raise capital. 

What matters is not their thoughts, not their intentions but their actions and skills.   For their sake, I hope they turn things around.  But it's not likely.

[thelakelander]

Time will tell. Right now, their actions show an operational line in South Florida and hundreds of millions in TOD rising above or around the three stations. It also appears that Tri-Rail will start operating on their tracks in 2019, opening the door to commuting possibilities and links that have only been dreamed about for decades. I wish them the best because they are Jax's best hope when it comes to seeing anything intercity passenger rail related penetrate our urban core borders.

[MusicMan]

You make it sound like $10,000,000,000 is a lot .

Not to Jeff Bezos, or a lot of other people on this planet.  Warren Buffet, Bill gates, the list goes on, of individuals who could float this.
Not to mention the Walton family.  That being said it will all play out over the next year or 2...

[Ocklawaha]

I doubt you’ll see the building of a new railroad. What will happen is an operating agreement with UP/BNSF with the sundry necessary improvements for passenger trains. The Achilles heel is the stretch from Apple Valley/Victorville to LA... There are two choices:
1. Follow the host railroads down the busy (crowded) Cajon Pass to San Bernardino and hence west to LA
2. Construct a 10-20 mile cut-off. Abandoning Victorville and following BNSF west of Barstow. At some point between Barstow and Mojave’s they would need a cut-off in the direction of Palmdale/Lancaster. Hence follow the UP southwest through Soledad Canyon, Santa Clarita and South through Burbank to LA.
I’ve ridden both of these routes and while they might fly once they clear the Ivanpah range near the state line, no speed records will be set in either of the two routes outlined above.

The chance folks will drive ½ way to catch a train is idiotic at best.

[bl8jaxnative]

UP and BNSF have been very diplomatic in their wording.  In short, they've expressed they'll never do such a thing.   In fact, the builders haven't looked to do it, either. 

FRA requirements on those passenger trains are stringent enough.   They practically have to be built like tanks. Once you introduce one onto a freight corridor costs go through the roof as new safety requirements kick in.