Author Topic: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City  (Read 2822 times)

Adam White

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #15 on: June 21, 2018, 09:54:48 AM »
I wonder if the Hampton Roads numbers are not skewed by all the young Military who end up getting stationed there

Yes but remember it is net numbers so for whatever reason, very few must have been transferred out that year.

Presumably, those transferred out are replaced in order to maintain numbers?

Lol I dont understand. Does it not work both ways?

My point was simply to remind that the numbers reflect net migration, so while it is no surprise that there is a lot of transience due to the military there, the 2016 stats show an unusual bump overall. It likely still is a result of the military, but probably not an every year occurrence.

Ah...I didn't follow. I thought you were wondering why there was no change, since the military transfers people out. I didn't know there was a bump. But I didn't really spend much time on the article.
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ProjectMaximus

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #16 on: June 21, 2018, 11:19:43 AM »
The numbers are cherry picked. Maybe it's military related or maybe that metro's development patterns are shifting. It's hard to tell because there's no info on the other consolidated cities (Portsmouth, Hampton, Chesapeake, Suffork).

I wouldn't say that they are cherry picked. More like the data set is not uniform due to the use of city limits. But cherry picking would suggest they purposefully focused on certain cities or data to the exclusion of others.

That said, party pooper, you are obviously correct that the wild variation with city boundaries greatly lessens any meaning that could be derived from this list. However I think it's incorrect to suggest that nothing can be gleaned from the data due to city limits. It is worthwhile to note that none of the cities with larger populations than Jax came out ahead of Jax. In fact, of the 25 largest cities in America, only Seattle was in front and many don't even appear in the top 25. This includes other large consolidated cities. In other words, Jax may be playing with a handicap, but it's performing well against the entire field, including other cities with a handicap.

All of that said, LOL, this was just a one year sample size and certainly has a sizable margin of error, so I'll take the results with at least a few grains of salt.

Ah...I didn't follow. I thought you were wondering why there was no change, since the military transfers people out. I didn't know there was a bump. But I didn't really spend much time on the article.

Yeah, 3 cities in the Norfolk MSA are in the top 10. They actually did pretty well in last year's rankings too so this is officially a multi-year bump. Perhaps the naval base has been expanding?
« Last Edit: June 21, 2018, 11:22:41 AM by ProjectMaximus »

Wacca Pilatka

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2018, 12:24:16 PM »
^ The overall population of Hampton Roads, as a metro, has been pretty stagnant, as has its economy in general.  That includes the formerly fast-growing city of Virginia Beach.  With the exception of Norfolk city, which has seen some significant urban infill and has drawn some people moving back in from more suburban areas of the metro, I think these figures have to be military in-migration only.
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JaxJersey-licious

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2018, 02:17:49 PM »
I've suckered myself into hundreds of shit-clickbait "statistical" sites in my time but this one has me really scratching my head. Who did and didn't get on this list regardless of land mass and current population dynamics is maddening enough. Minneapolis is #4 but St. Paul right next door with similar demos doesn't make the top 25. Ft. Worth and Arlington are on the list but other similar size cities in DFW including <gulp> Dallas are not! Not to mention other fast growing cities similar to Jacksonville like Atlanta, Tampa, Orlando, Phoenix, and Raleigh probably should be top 25 at least.

But what makes this article really laughable is the fact they include the net migration figures of states. According to this #2 for net migration from 2016 is Columbia, SC with 6,937 (why they blow away other places in the state like Charleston or Greenville is another unexplained matter, but anyway). Now of the top 10 states net migration they cite for that same period South Carolina is not one of them and number 10 (Arizona) had 7,077 so let's say SC was barely edged out for that 10 slot the most net migration of millenials for the rest of the state would be no higher than 139(!)

To put Jacksonville's whooptee #5 ranking in perspective, Florida was 9th in net migration with 7,195 therefore only 841 more of them came to this state of almost 20 million people given that 6,354 of them made their new home in Duuvall (and not its fancy-schmancy suburbs either).

If there was a comment section to this article the woman who wrote this would have been laughed out of the electrical grid much less the internet.   

ProjectMaximus

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2018, 05:53:02 PM »
^I dunno JJ-l, the shit-clickbait sites you reference are usually opinion pieces with a debatable methodology/formula. This is black and white census numbers from the ACS. All that stuff you said is laughable regarding Minny and St Paul, Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington, etc is the author simply presenting the data. Now I've already listed many flaws with attempting to interpret this data, but no need to shoot the messenger (author) or the messenger's messenger (yours truly)

thelakelander

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2018, 06:51:44 PM »
The methodology is certainly flawed because the census numbers aren't comparable due to the discrepancy in land areas. While they may be two factual datasets, the methology of using them together in this manner is what makes the resulting analysis trash.
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JaxJersey-licious

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2018, 11:23:10 PM »
^I dunno JJ-l, the shit-clickbait sites you reference are usually opinion pieces with a debatable methodology/formula. This is black and white census numbers from the ACS. All that stuff you said is laughable regarding Minny and St Paul, Dallas-Ft Worth-Arlington, etc is the author simply presenting the data. Now I've already listed many flaws with attempting to interpret this data, but no need to shoot the messenger (author) or the messenger's messenger (yours truly)

First of, this isn't the most egregious instance of clickbait since at least it's all contained within one article and does not present itself as such. That said, I think the biggest flaw of this article looking at the data provided is that many cities seem to be excluded from the survey for some reason. For instance the fact that one Phoenix area city (Tempe) made the list seems downright absurd until you notice the study's sample size stated was 217 cities or an average of 5 from every decent sized state - nowhere near enough sample size to go on (maybe a study of millennials in 217 metropolitan areas would have been more insightful). And what's also lacking in this article is the lack of context in why many of these cities are on this list. For instance Columbia South Carolina is #2 in the country for attracting and keeping millenials, why? Sure the economy is great and taxes may be low but what are they doing that specifically attracts this age group of residents? Why aren't the numbers this robust for other urbanized areas of the state and region? And what can the rest of the country learn from this and other top 10 cities on the list? Maybe Jacksonville could teach Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida a thing or two?

Look I think this is a very interesting field that should be looked at and researched and was excited to read about this  particularly with JAX  ranking like it did, but I'm just calling it as I see it. And as flawed as I think this study is I'm actually really glad you posted this - healthy conversations on growth are always good.

thelakelander

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2018, 01:21:30 AM »
Quote
Maybe Jacksonville could teach Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida a thing or two?

Could it? This can't be validated without either expanding the land area of the other regions to 747 square miles or restricting them down to Miami's 35 square miles. If you only counted new millennials within a 35 square mile bubble around downtown Jax (basically the urban core, excluding Bartram Park and the Southside), only then would we know if Jax can teach Miami something. Otherwise, it's pretty much a crap shoot.
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JaxJersey-licious

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #23 on: June 22, 2018, 11:29:11 AM »
Quote
Maybe Jacksonville could teach Orlando, Tampa, and South Florida a thing or two?

Could it? This can't be validated without either expanding the land area of the other regions to 747 square miles or restricting them down to Miami's 35 square miles. If you only counted new millennials within a 35 square mile bubble around downtown Jax (basically the urban core, excluding Bartram Park and the Southside), only then would we know if Jax can teach Miami something. Otherwise, it's pretty much a crap shoot.

That line about teaching South Florida a thing or two was intended to be sarcasm, but you're saying there's a chance??

thelakelander

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Re: 2016 Millenial Net Migration by City
« Reply #24 on: June 22, 2018, 02:57:16 PM »
Lol!
"A man who views the world the same at 50 as he did at 20 has wasted 30 years of his life.” - Muhammad Ali