Author Topic: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor  (Read 2184 times)

Josh

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #15 on: May 16, 2018, 01:26:03 PM »
If Curry has any vulnerabilities it would have to be crime.  He beat Brown over the head with it in the last campaign, but it seems to me that the crime rate may be even worse than when Brown was in office.  Money talks and Curry has the finances.

Yes. They brought this up on First Coast Connect a few weeks ago. Curry's main campaign promise was to lower the crime rate (despite it apparently having been at a 50-year low), and since he was elected the rate of violent crime has increased in the city.

Any time Curry speaks he always harps on the small-government belief that government's only responsibility should be safety. Doesn't seem to be working too well for him.

Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #16 on: May 16, 2018, 01:58:56 PM »
If Curry has any vulnerabilities it would have to be crime.  He beat Brown over the head with it in the last campaign, but it seems to me that the crime rate may be even worse than when Brown was in office.  Money talks and Curry has the finances.

Yes. They brought this up on First Coast Connect a few weeks ago. Curry's main campaign promise was to lower the crime rate (despite it apparently having been at a 50-year low), and since he was elected the rate of violent crime has increased in the city.

Any time Curry speaks he always harps on the small-government belief that government's only responsibility should be safety. Doesn't seem to be working too well for him.

It's not going to be an issue, for various reasons. First and foremost, violent crime isn't up by much, if at all during his term. It decreased slightly between 2015 and 2016 before it increased slightly last year.

In contrast, while overall crime may have been down in 2015, violent crime was climbing throughout Brown's term. Brown had also slashed police positions and Jacksonville Journey funding, which had previously been responsible for reducing the violent rate. That's what Curry really hammered Brown on, and he has in fact done things differently. He brought back police positions and added funding to the Jacksonville Journey. He can point to that and say that he's trying to fix the problem, and JSO will back him up on it. No challenger would have anything to stick to Curry on this.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

jaxnyc79

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #17 on: May 16, 2018, 03:55:40 PM »
If Curry has any vulnerabilities it would have to be crime.  He beat Brown over the head with it in the last campaign, but it seems to me that the crime rate may be even worse than when Brown was in office.  Money talks and Curry has the finances.

Yes. They brought this up on First Coast Connect a few weeks ago. Curry's main campaign promise was to lower the crime rate (despite it apparently having been at a 50-year low), and since he was elected the rate of violent crime has increased in the city.

Any time Curry speaks he always harps on the small-government belief that government's only responsibility should be safety. Doesn't seem to be working too well for him.

It's not going to be an issue, for various reasons. First and foremost, violent crime isn't up by much, if at all during his term. It decreased slightly between 2015 and 2016 before it increased slightly last year.

In contrast, while overall crime may have been down in 2015, violent crime was climbing throughout Brown's term. Brown had also slashed police positions and Jacksonville Journey funding, which had previously been responsible for reducing the violent rate. That's what Curry really hammered Brown on, and he has in fact done things differently. He brought back police positions and added funding to the Jacksonville Journey. He can point to that and say that he's trying to fix the problem, and JSO will back him up on it. No challenger would have anything to stick to Curry on this.

Curry's first full year in office was 2016, yes?  I was under impression the murder rate has gone up significantly.  Ultimately, I don't think it's fair to lay the blame for the murder rate solely at the feet of the Mayor, but given how brutal he was with Brown on crime, he should have to answer for the unfortunate trend.  He'll probably say he just needs more time for the increased police headcount and Journey to be absorbed by the community, but I don't know enough about Journey to have a view on its impact.   

Tacachale

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #18 on: May 16, 2018, 04:27:35 PM »
If Curry has any vulnerabilities it would have to be crime.  He beat Brown over the head with it in the last campaign, but it seems to me that the crime rate may be even worse than when Brown was in office.  Money talks and Curry has the finances.

Yes. They brought this up on First Coast Connect a few weeks ago. Curry's main campaign promise was to lower the crime rate (despite it apparently having been at a 50-year low), and since he was elected the rate of violent crime has increased in the city.

Any time Curry speaks he always harps on the small-government belief that government's only responsibility should be safety. Doesn't seem to be working too well for him.

It's not going to be an issue, for various reasons. First and foremost, violent crime isn't up by much, if at all during his term. It decreased slightly between 2015 and 2016 before it increased slightly last year.

In contrast, while overall crime may have been down in 2015, violent crime was climbing throughout Brown's term. Brown had also slashed police positions and Jacksonville Journey funding, which had previously been responsible for reducing the violent rate. That's what Curry really hammered Brown on, and he has in fact done things differently. He brought back police positions and added funding to the Jacksonville Journey. He can point to that and say that he's trying to fix the problem, and JSO will back him up on it. No challenger would have anything to stick to Curry on this.

Curry's first full year in office was 2016, yes?  I was under impression the murder rate has gone up significantly.  Ultimately, I don't think it's fair to lay the blame for the murder rate solely at the feet of the Mayor, but given how brutal he was with Brown on crime, he should have to answer for the unfortunate trend.  He'll probably say he just needs more time for the increased police headcount and Journey to be absorbed by the community, but I don't know enough about Journey to have a view on its impact.

The murder rate has continued to climb, but violent crime in total hasn't gone up as much (and decreased in 2016). He'll be able to point to what he's done with the new officers and Jacksonville Journey funding and say it just hasn't had time to be bear fruit. And that's true - it's a lot easier to get rid of officers (as Brown did) than it is to train new ones, and he was working from a serious deficit in the resources. I just don't see the issue sticking to him. It's not as if the new candidate could do better, and they'd know it.
Do you believe that when the blue jay or another bird sings and the body is trembling, that is a signal that people are coming or something important is about to happen?

jaxnyc79

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #19 on: May 16, 2018, 04:58:36 PM »
If Curry has any vulnerabilities it would have to be crime.  He beat Brown over the head with it in the last campaign, but it seems to me that the crime rate may be even worse than when Brown was in office.  Money talks and Curry has the finances.

Yes. They brought this up on First Coast Connect a few weeks ago. Curry's main campaign promise was to lower the crime rate (despite it apparently having been at a 50-year low), and since he was elected the rate of violent crime has increased in the city.

Any time Curry speaks he always harps on the small-government belief that government's only responsibility should be safety. Doesn't seem to be working too well for him.

It's not going to be an issue, for various reasons. First and foremost, violent crime isn't up by much, if at all during his term. It decreased slightly between 2015 and 2016 before it increased slightly last year.

In contrast, while overall crime may have been down in 2015, violent crime was climbing throughout Brown's term. Brown had also slashed police positions and Jacksonville Journey funding, which had previously been responsible for reducing the violent rate. That's what Curry really hammered Brown on, and he has in fact done things differently. He brought back police positions and added funding to the Jacksonville Journey. He can point to that and say that he's trying to fix the problem, and JSO will back him up on it. No challenger would have anything to stick to Curry on this.

Curry's first full year in office was 2016, yes?  I was under impression the murder rate has gone up significantly.  Ultimately, I don't think it's fair to lay the blame for the murder rate solely at the feet of the Mayor, but given how brutal he was with Brown on crime, he should have to answer for the unfortunate trend.  He'll probably say he just needs more time for the increased police headcount and Journey to be absorbed by the community, but I don't know enough about Journey to have a view on its impact.

The murder rate has continued to climb, but violent crime in total hasn't gone up as much (and decreased in 2016). He'll be able to point to what he's done with the new officers and Jacksonville Journey funding and say it just hasn't had time to be bear fruit. And that's true - it's a lot easier to get rid of officers (as Brown did) than it is to train new ones, and he was working from a serious deficit in the resources. I just don't see the issue sticking to him. It's not as if the new candidate could do better, and they'd know it.

New candidate doesn't have to do better, they just have to dangle the prospect that she/he could do better, and that the murder rate is the component of the violent crime trend that's the most important and most disconcerting, and that Curry has failed to deliver on that.  Is aggressive pedestrian ticketing in minority neighborhoods Jacksonville's version of stop and frisk?  Having said all of that, I don't know if people outside of a few zip codes in the urban core really feel the violent crime problem enough for it to drive their votes. 

Snaketoz

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #20 on: May 16, 2018, 05:51:27 PM »
I think if any office holder seeker should talk about crime it would be someone running for sheriff.  Curry had so little to offer, he had to find something to blame on Brown, even if he wasn't sheriff.  He couldn't blame the sheriff for the crime rate, because the sheriff was a Republican.  Curry has grown a lot since being elected.  He ALMOST seems to be eligible to run for office now that he has learned on the job.  His campaign was pitiful.  He stammered and gagged his way from nobody to the perfect puppet of big money, bigshot-Florida.  Nobody so unworthy has gone so far with so little in recent memory.  (Unless you count our current President) I was shocked when he won, and now I'll be shocked if he isn't re-elected.

ProjectMaximus

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #21 on: May 16, 2018, 07:58:37 PM »
Brosche has definitely made a name for herself on stuff like the JEA and the HRO. She's definitely more of an "issues" person than Curry was when he won the mayoral election in 2015, or even than he is now. However, some of the issues (like Confederate monuments) will push some of the base away. Also, unlike 2015 Curry, she wouldn't be running against a historically weak candidate.

I guess, perhaps. But, she hasn't done as good of a job getting herself into the news for it. It's tough for a city council person.

I feel like she'd have a better chance in 2023 though.

She's been all over the news about most of this stuff, that won't be her problem. Her problem would be the money, and the strength of the competition.

Honestly I think Anna would have no issues raising money if she were doing it in a vacuum. It's actually something that I would consider a strength for her. However the problem is she'd be competing against Curry for those funds, and as some of you have pointed it he's already locked down a lot of the heavy hitters in this city.

Steve

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Re: Jacksonville City Council President Brosche Considers Run for Mayor
« Reply #22 on: May 17, 2018, 08:55:13 AM »
The crime angle is one of the frustrating parts I have with our Consolidated Government. If you ask a new resident to the city who has a family what the top two things they care about are, they usually respond with "Crime and Education" (not necessarily in that order). With our government, the Mayor has a bit of a pass with both of them:

 - While the COJ approves the Sheriff's budget, the Sheriff is elected on their own, has overall say of the running of the department, and can't be replaced by the mayor (unlike most big cities with an appointed Police Chief/Commissioner).
 - DCPS is their own line on the Property Tax bill, manages their own money, has elected School Board members who hire a Superintendent.

While the Mayor is the figurehead and his words carry some weight in that regard, The Mayor can just say "Not My Problem".

(To be clear, this isn't a statement about Curry but our government structure. John Peyton did this more times than I can count)