Author Topic: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings  (Read 51592 times)

realestatejax

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #225 on: January 14, 2019, 01:25:09 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Tacachale

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #226 on: January 14, 2019, 02:03:28 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

The baseless inferiority complex is definitely a Jax thing.
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fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #227 on: January 14, 2019, 03:04:00 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.

Kerry

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #228 on: January 14, 2019, 04:37:32 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

And yet, about two dozen new grocery stores opened in Jax in the last two years.

Maybe it's not a 'Jax thing' and more like a 'site thing'?  Or maybe it's Shad Khan's fault?

Well there definately seems to be some sort of inverse relationship between the distance from City Hall and time to complete.  Suburban stuff in Jax seems to be conceived, propsed, and executed pretty fast.  Urban stuff - the exact opposite.
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Tacachale

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #229 on: January 14, 2019, 04:52:06 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

And yet, about two dozen new grocery stores opened in Jax in the last two years.

Maybe it's not a 'Jax thing' and more like a 'site thing'?  Or maybe it's Shad Khan's fault?

Well there definately seems to be some sort of inverse relationship between the distance from City Hall and time to complete.  Suburban stuff in Jax seems to be conceived, propsed, and executed pretty fast.  Urban stuff - the exact opposite.

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vicupstate

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #230 on: January 14, 2019, 05:20:17 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.


I don't see this as Apples to Apples. When Gate bought the property is not relevant, IMO. There was no ability to put a grocery store on the Gate property until the infrastructure was in place.  There was the ability to build a grocery store in San Marco as soon as the zoning was changed to allow it.

Further still, the best Apple to Apple version is when the intentions to build were announced vs. when the store actually opened.
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Steve

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #231 on: January 14, 2019, 05:56:49 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

And yet, about two dozen new grocery stores opened in Jax in the last two years.

Maybe it's not a 'Jax thing' and more like a 'site thing'?  Or maybe it's Shad Khan's fault?

Well there definately seems to be some sort of inverse relationship between the distance from City Hall and time to complete.  Suburban stuff in Jax seems to be conceived, propsed, and executed pretty fast.  Urban stuff - the exact opposite.

I mean, you’re talking about the second longest proposed project in the urban Core to the shipyards. Kind of an anomaly.

The big difference I see is that when a developer proposes something downtown, in many cases they don’t own the property, and the proposal becomes public because of things like design review. They then won’t close on the property unless it’s appeoved.

In the suburbs, the proposals are there, they just aren’t usually known to the public.

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #232 on: January 14, 2019, 07:20:39 PM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.


I don't see this as Apples to Apples. When Gate bought the property is not relevant, IMO. There was no ability to put a grocery store on the Gate property until the infrastructure was in place.  There was the ability to build a grocery store in San Marco as soon as the zoning was changed to allow it.

Further still, the best Apple to Apple version is when the intentions to build were announced vs. when the store actually opened.
That's not apples to apples either. Up until a few months ago, the proposal wasn't a Publix. It was a Publix with a parking deck and 6 or 7 floors of condos/apartments on top of it. That's a product that still hasn't been built locally. Now the new proposal is a Publix and some retail shops, which is more comparable to what's in the burbs. The change essentially resets the clock because the proposal is totally different from what had been delayed over a decade.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 07:29:11 PM by thelakelander »
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fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #233 on: January 15, 2019, 04:18:29 AM »
I think the time delay is a Jax thing.  Gate has planned, broken ground, and opened a 1000 acre development in St Johns County while San Marco waits for a grocery store.

Gate was putting that project together for years.  Then it took Gatlin another few years to get to where they are at today.  Remember this is just the 1st phase of the overall project.  There is still a long way to go. 
The new Publix that is going in across the street from Durbin Pavillion has been in the works for at least three years and they still haven't broken ground.  Again this stuff takes a LONG TIME!

Not that Kerry has any time for such trivial matters as facts.... because Shad Khan, Jacksonville sucks, developers suck, people here are all talk no action and Oklahoma City is glorious... but Durbin Park is a 30 year development that was entitled in 2015. Gaitlin's involvement first began in 2016 to develop phase 1 of the project.

For background, Gate has owned the land since 2004.

In 2011, the company successfully lobbied the Governor's office to enact legislation to dub the property an 'urban services area', which meant it would not have to follow the DRI entitlement process (which would have forced them to pay for millions more in infrastructure).

Before that, the company successfully lobbied legislators to build and fund Florida 9B beginning in 2005 along with an interchange at County Road 2209 in order to open up this land to development. The recession halted funding, but more money was miraculously found again in 2010.

So, yes.... a grocery store popped up in Northern St Johns County last year.... but it took 14 years, over $200 million in highway construction and millions more in bond money to build supporting infrastructure in order for all that to happen.

In other words, a perfect apples to apples comparison of the San Marco Publix.


I don't see this as Apples to Apples. When Gate bought the property is not relevant, IMO. There was no ability to put a grocery store on the Gate property until the infrastructure was in place.  There was the ability to build a grocery store in San Marco as soon as the zoning was changed to allow it.

Further still, the best Apple to Apple version is when the intentions to build were announced vs. when the store actually opened.

The 'apples to apples' comment was dripping with sarcasm  :)

MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #234 on: January 16, 2019, 09:14:18 AM »
One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.  I'm fairly certain the company behind the development, Regency, is not publicly owned, so there are no share holders asking questions and pushing for a resolution to the issue.

And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....
 

Captain Zissou

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #235 on: January 16, 2019, 09:22:20 AM »
I'm fairly certain the company behind the development, Regency, is not publicly owned, so there are no share holders asking questions and pushing for a resolution to the issue.

Thanks for clarifying that you have no idea what you're talking about. 3 seconds of research would show you that Regency Centers is publicly traded and has been for over 25 years.  Next time, try this: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Is+regency+centers+publicly+traded

The fact that it is publicly traded makes this more complicated.  The property was purchased at an expensive price, so the returns have to be in line with other assets throughout the company in order for management to proceed with the project.  Analysts are able to see the financials and a poorly conceived or executed project just for the sake of getting it done will affect the share price and lose money for thousands.  This isn't just Delores Weaver spending money on a passion project for the good of the neighborhood.  This is a publicly traded company, who is also a part of the S&P 500 Index, who needs to generate sufficient returns to maximize shareholder value.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 09:26:17 AM by Captain Zissou »

thelakelander

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #236 on: January 16, 2019, 09:47:48 AM »
One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.

What's not up for dispute is that a project combining a venture that includes "Publix with multiple levels of multifamily housing above it in San Marco" has been a failure. That project has been scrapped. Time will tell if a strip mall featuring a Publix will come to fruition on the property now.

Quote
And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

There's a lot more going on around town than the couple of projects that come with high fanfare and media coverage but don't make sense from a market rate perspective.  Vista Brooklyn is turning dirt, hundreds of units are going up on Philips, both projects on Hendricks around I-95 are moving forward, Broadstone is wrapping up, etc. Personally, I think there needs to be more effort targeting specific sites within the Northbank to cluster development more but the Shipyards, Berkman II and the District are necessarily indicative of the core's health.

Quote
I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

These guys don't owe the neighborhood anything. Some projects end up happening and others for a variety of reasons don't. That's consistent regardless of the neighborhood, city or metropolitan area.
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MusicMan

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #237 on: January 16, 2019, 09:52:58 AM »
Thank you for the update. It has not performed too well in that 10 year chart I looked at (compared to the S and P 500 Index).

It's still a failure, but you do put some perspective on it being a tiny piece of the big company.

Lake, yes some excellent progress going on.  I have developed a relationship with one of the Partners at Catalyst and they have moved very quickly, so I see good things.  And evidently the time frame for commercial developers like Regency are much longer than other types of investors. 

Just curious about your opinion, what did Regency pay for all the "Publix in San Marco" parcels and what could they sell it for today?
« Last Edit: January 16, 2019, 10:03:13 AM by MusicMan »

jaxnyc79

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #238 on: January 16, 2019, 10:28:09 AM »
One thing I believe is not in dispute is that as things stand today, January 16 of 2019, the "Publix in San Marco" venture has been a failure.
Yes it "takes a long time" to put these deals together, but 10 years is extreme. And quite frankly, NO ONE BLOGGING HERE knows when if at all a Publix will eventually open on the site.

What's not up for dispute is that a project combining a venture that includes "Publix with multiple levels of multifamily housing above it in San Marco" has been a failure. That project has been scrapped. Time will tell if a strip mall featuring a Publix will come to fruition on the property now.

Quote
And it does seem that there are a lot of projects that are stuck in limbo, The Shipyards being one, and the Berkman II being another large high profile project that no one actually knows when they will be started, much less completed. It took 4 years for Rummell to close on The District, and honestly that ventured into 'la la land' near the end when Mayor Curry and others tried to screw with the financing....

There's a lot more going on around town than the couple of projects that come with high fanfare and media coverage but don't make sense from a market rate perspective.  Vista Brooklyn is turning dirt, hundreds of units are going up on Philips, both projects on Hendricks around I-95 are moving forward, Broadstone is wrapping up, etc. Personally, I think there needs to be more effort targeting specific sites within the Northbank to cluster development more but the Shipyards, Berkman II and the District are necessarily indicative of the core's health.

Quote
I think it's time to stop making excuses for the developers and acknowledge they screwed the pooch in quite a few places of real importance to neighborhoods we like and live in.  In the meantime I'll keep driving down St Augustine to the Publix at University....

These guys don't owe the neighborhood anything. Some projects end up happening and others for a variety of reasons don't. That's consistent regardless of the neighborhood, city or metropolitan area.

IMO, even though San Marco and the Southbank are associated with core/urban Jax, they just aren't all that dense (residentially speaking).  I do believe that will change in the next 10 years and should fuel a greater intensity of commercial/retail activity.  My mom travels from Deerwood to shop at a couple of the boutiques in San Marco Square, but she would never do that for a Publix (not destination shopping).  Given the Publix right down the road on University, and given higher ROI hurdles that real estate projects must clear to be justified post-crisis, I'd guess that someone figured the neighborhood lacked the residential density to justify any urgency in the project.  However, they're keeping the connection to the plot because as more infill projects come to fruition and the area achieves real urban density, a store will make sense.  Pure speculation here, but I think nothing gets done there for another 5 years, and then development eventually materializes as mid-rise, mixed-use once again.

fieldafm

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Re: San Marco Publix Site Plan and Renderings
« Reply #239 on: January 16, 2019, 10:30:03 AM »
Thank you for the update. It has not performed too well in that 10 year chart I looked at (compared to the S and P 500 Index).

Since its 2009 recession low, the Regency Centers stock has more than doubled in value and has paid out almost $30 in dividends. That's a return on investment of roughly 212% over a 9 year period.

I sure hope people don't take investment or real estate advice from you.