2012 City Population Estimates Released

[Metro Jacksonville]

2012 City Population Estimates Released



The Census Bureau recently released their 2012 estimates for the country's largest cities. Despite having the largest land area in the continental United States, Jacksonville has been passed by Austin, TX and now is on the verge of being surpassed in population by several other cities. Today, Metro Jacksonville shares the population estimates of all American cities with more than 50,000 residents to illustrate where Jacksonville's growth fits in with the rest of the country.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2013-may-2012-city-population-estimates-released

[thelakelander]

http://www.census.gov/newsroom/releases/archives/population/cb13-94.html

Columbus, Fort Worth and Charlotte are closing in fast. 

http://factfinder2.census.gov/bkmk/table/1.0/en/PEP/2012/PEPANNRSIP.US12A

Apparently SF has even added 50% more people than Jacksonville since the 2010 Census, and considering it's basically the first time the city has allowed significant new construction in decades I believe it.

Actually, when you look at all the major cities in the top 30 or 40, Indy and Jax adding 14,000 apiece are ahead of only Detroit, Baltimore, Memphis, Louisville, Milwaukee, and a few other obvious suspects.  Cities half of Jax's population apparently still added more people.  Yikes.  Considering that the weather and cost of living in Jax are the same as in SJC and there is still abundant land (basically more land to grow than any other city on that list), this is potentially an eye opening problem.

Moderator's Edit: These two posts were copied and pasted from a similar thread.

[thelakelander]

Very interesting indeed.  I figured we'd eventually get passed by Austin and Charlotte.  I just didn't realize they'd catch us so quick.

[simms3]

There's no telling what will happen to growth in the 2,831 days between 7/1/12 and 4/1/20, but at the current average daily rate the 5 counties in NE FL are growing in the 822 days between 4/1/10 and 7/1/12, the metro will not even reach 1.5 million people in 2020's Census, it will come just shy.

By contrast, SF County would reach 901K people (Duval will stay larger), which would put it at 19,224 ppsm including park space (est 21,330 without).

Fulton County in Atlanta will grow 30% from 920K to over 1.2 million, and overall the 5 core counties of Atlanta will grow over 19% from 3.365M to 4.015M, which is an even spread of ~2,350 ppsm (1,713 square miles vs 3,698 square miles in the 5 county Jacksonville MSA)


Jax MSA (2010 Census, 2012 est, growth, nominal daily growth rate, 2020 Census est, decadal growth)

Duval   864,263   879,602   1.775%   0.002%      934,544   8.1%
St. Johns   190,039   202,188   6.393%   0.008%      250,290   31.7%
Clayton   190,865   194,345   1.823%   0.002%      206,823   8.4%
Nassau   73,314   74,629   1.794%   0.002%      79,341   8.2%
Baker   27,115   27,086   -0.107%   0.000%      26,986   -0.5%
                     
Subtotal   1,345,596   1,377,850   2.397%   0.003%      1,497,984   11.3%

[vicupstate]

Charlotte's growth in the past has been due to annexations prior to 2010 or so, but that has all but ceased.  Yet the robust increase continues DESPITE being hit so hard by the financial meltdown.

[tufsu1]

somre really interesting things here.

1. Growth in Austin is ridiculous...2+% a year for a large market is hardly desirable/sustainable...reference the results of rapid growth in Florida from the 1970s through the 1990s to see the results

2. Chicago and Philly are both growing....first time in decades

3. Furthermore, I wonder if Atlanta's growth is really happening this time...the 2010 Census data revealed that the growth estimated to occur between 2000 and 2010 never happened...in fact the city lost population

4. DC is now larger than Baltimore....good for the larger region, yet sad for the city I associated with growing up

5. San Francisco's growth seems incredible for a city that is essentially built out with many neighborhoods that won't densify more

[thelakelander]

San Francisco has been built out for decades. What areas of the city are responsible for it's continued growth?  Also, is this infill a reuse of older building stock or higher density new construction?

[simms3]

Red.

somre really interesting things here.

1. Growth in Austin is ridiculous...2+% a year for a large market is hardly desirable/sustainable...reference the results of rapid growth in Florida from the 1970s through the 1990s to see the results

2. Chicago and Philly are both growing....first time in decades  Always good, but a lot of folks are skeptical about Chicago growth and population loss continues to be a topic brought up and a reason why not every institutional fund is ready to jump into that city...

3. Furthermore, I wonder if Atlanta's growth is really happening this time...the 2010 Census data revealed that the growth estimated to occur between 2000 and 2010 never happened...in fact the city lost population  The fact that the city and county didn't register the growth everyone thought last decade raised a ton of eyebrows.  Furthermore, what's happened is a major demographic shift in Atlanta and with the amount of infill that has been built and filled in the past 10 years, this isn't surprising.

4. DC is now larger than Baltimore....good for the larger region, yet sad for the city I associated with growing up

5. San Francisco's growth seems incredible for a city that is essentially built out with many neighborhoods that won't densify more  San Francisco has close to 10,000 units just completed or UC at this time, so yes, unbelievably this growth is happening.  There's another tech boom happening.  If you came here your jaw would drop at all the tower cranes - a couple dozen up right now throughout the city, and there is always room to grow...if NYC can explode in population, any city can.

[thelakelander]

Good point about NYC!

[simms3]

San Francisco has been built out for decades. What areas of the city are responsible for it's continued growth?  Also, is this infill a reuse of older building stock or higher density new construction?

Reuse in the city's traditional ghetto - the Tenderloin, now nicknamed the Trendyloin, the rest is new construction infill and conversion of obsolete office buildings into residential.  I don't care to post renderings of the dozens of really cool infill projects in the 8-10 story range (80-140 units), but there are also tall towers going up and a large conversion, see below:

Conversion just now starting, tower crane is up to remove concrete panels from old building.





A few projects going up right now:





749 units - this is topped off and almost delivered:



Nearly complete now:


Tishman Speyer breaking ground on this:






Site prep now:


Tons of stuff like this going up:



This project sold out in like 2 hours in pre-construction:





Almost topped off 17 stories:



Infill near stadium:



Castro infill (24 units):




Tenderloin infill (neighb of 75,000 ppsm):






Mission District infill:



More Upper Market St infill (probably 10 tower cranes up for similar/larger projects on upper market right now):




More Mission infill:



This corner site is turning out nicely (almost done now):




Down the street:




From SF Biz:



SF also has several office towers under construction...and the Transbay Terminal and the Central Subway and some huge new mixed-use/retail developments under construction in Union Square next to Westfield Centre.  The amount of construction here is huge, even in neighborhoods that approach 100,000 ppsm in density (Tenderloin, where several affordable housing towers are UC).

[tufsu1]

thanks Simms...some really great stuff going on in SF

[John P]

I think the San fransico affordbale housing and rent program is interesting.

[IronDonut]

Stuff I never think:

-- Gee I wish there was more traffic moving slower.

-- I hate these blue skies I wish there were more people hear fowling the air so we could have more pollution.

-- This line is moving too quickly - what would make this a better experience is if I had to wait longer.

-- Only a 25 minute wait for a table?!? A 45 minute wait would be better!

Other metro areas are growing faster than here? Good. I hope that trend continues. In fact I would love it if about 250,000 of the people that currently live here decided to pack up and move somewhere else.

Why would anyone want more people to live here?  The place is overrun with people. Moving too slowly. Making bad choices in traffic. Checking 57 items out in the 10 items or less lane. Not turning right on red. Clogging up the left lane. Exposing too much soft pasty white flesh at our beaches.

More of this is "winning?"  I don't think so.

[tufsu1]

Because if you dont grow and everyone else does, you get left behind

[thelakelander]

Other metro areas are growing faster than here? Good. I hope that trend continues. In fact I would love it if about 250,000 of the people that currently live here decided to pack up and move somewhere else.

LOL, I bet you would not like the result of 30% drop in population and the impact of that decline on the city's budget.  We can barely afford to mow public ROW regularly, keep our streets up to par and schools open.  Take that many taxpayers out of the equation and you'll turn this place into Detroit South.