Author Topic: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline  (Read 7356 times)

Metro Jacksonville

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Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« on: March 31, 2011, 03:21:52 AM »
Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline



A look at the rise and fall of the Urban Core's population with the help of pre-consolidation city limit maps and 2010 census tracts tract results.

Full Article
http://www.metrojacksonville.com/article/2011-mar-census-2010-urban-jacksonville-in-decline

Captain Zissou

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2011, 09:44:32 AM »
Absolutely Excellent!!

What a straightforward presentation of the facts about the decay of our urban core.  There's no denying the exodus that has occurred since the fifties from the city center. Rather than destroy more wetlands or forests, develop what we already have.  That's the greenest choice, that's the long term cheapest choice, it's the healthiest choice, and by far the smartest choice.

Thanks Ennis

jcjohnpaint

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2011, 09:59:14 AM »
Thank You.. wonderful article once again.  I feel that this should be on the front of voter's minds!

Jimmy

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2011, 10:13:48 AM »
Nicely done and well laid out.  We have an election coming up that will, in part, help determine which direction Jacksonville will head in.  Will we continue to flee the core for the Duval suburbs or the exurbs of the surrounding counties?  Or get back on track in Jacksonville proper?

Well, one candidate has his HQ in the urban core.  And the other outside of the pre-consolidation city limits.  Just a data point.
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Ocklawaha

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2011, 10:34:38 AM »
I agree, (from WGV no less) downtown is the way of the future. But we'll NEVER sell it to the voters that brought us Rick Scott by telling them it's "green" or "sustainable" or even "quality of life."   We need a new pitch for people who's only interest is how cheaply they can live. The classic NIMBY, these folks don't give a damn if their park has a playground, if the school has a bus, or if the air conditioner's at the school or city hall function. "Hell when we were kids we lived in public housing, we had no air conditioner, or playground and we had to walk to school...30 miles...barefoot...on a Florida beach, and by God these tree hugging kids aren't getting another dime."  (sound familiar?)  "Give us a freeway to get out of town on as fast as possible and don't confuse us with big words like sustainable."

Most readers of this site understand the economics of dense urban development, if we are ever going to convince these people that parks are better then streets, we need a new tune.


OCKLAWAHA

finehoe

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2011, 11:52:09 AM »

Wacca Pilatka

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2011, 12:23:00 PM »
Great article, Lake, as always (and great pictures!).

It'd be interesting to compare Jacksonville's core losses to those over a similar period in other cities that consolidated, such as Louisville, Nashville, and Indianapolis.  I'm sure Nashville's core has fared better due to the colleges and the tremendous recent development connecting the colleges and downtown, but I'm not sure Louisville or Indianapolis' cores have fared much better since their respective consolidations (despite their more vibrant downtown areas).

I strongly agree with this article's points and conclusions, but in one small bit of fairness to Jacksonville, the pre-consolidated city is only about 32 square miles IIRC.  Some of the cities to which we are comparing these core losses have substantially larger land areas - that is to say, room for suburban, Southside-type developments within their boundaries - and still have sustained significant losses.  E.g. Birmingham is 150 square miles; Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Baltimore are each about 80.  An 80-to-150 square mile Jacksonville (assuming a roughly circular locale with its center at the corner of Bay and Main) would not have suffered as dire of a proportionate loss as the 32-square-mile pre-consolidated city.  Of course, on the other hand, Miami is only something like 34 square miles and experienced less decline, and now is seeing population growth.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2011, 12:30:13 PM by Wacca Pilatka »
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thelakelander

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2011, 12:32:09 PM »
I left out any type of comparision that would put up our core against cities with ample room for suburban growth.  The only point I wanted to make was that we have significant problems of underutilization, blight and population loss that is being masked by heavy suburban growth.  Nationwide, I'm sure the same could be said for many communities.  However, the 50% decrease in density and population over the last 60 years also means this area is ripe with opportunity.  We just have to take advantage of it.
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buckethead

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2011, 12:32:44 PM »
Urban living has many qualities. Cul-de-sac communities truly are a dead end. HOA fees, administered by busy body transplants, yard comittees, nasty-grams from the property manager because you changed your flowerbeds without approval...

The suburbs suck. I know, I'm living it.

Daddy's coming home as soon as possible. Let those others wish they had gotten back in at the right time. I missed my chance in Riverside. I won't make that mistake again.

There is a historic neighborhood that is priced to benefit those with vision. Downtown is ripe as well, along with Brooklyn and La Villa. Have you guys seen the asking prices for lots lately?

It really is a no brainer.

One big problem is the public schools. Some are better than others, but if you home school, it is not an issue.

Those who move back into the core now, (and buy more property) will be counted among the fortunate/visionary in a few short years.




Wacca Pilatka

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2011, 12:37:06 PM »
I left out any type of comparision that would put up our core against cities with ample room for suburban growth.  The only point I wanted to make was that we have significant problems of underutilization, blight and population loss that is being masked by heavy suburban growth.  Nationwide, I'm sure the same could be said for many communities.  However, the 50% decrease in density and population over the last 60 years also means this area is ripe with opportunity.  We just have to take advantage of it.

No doubt about it.  It's the fiscally conservative thing to do.  It's the common sense thing to do.  It's the way to renew a city's identity, history, and pride.
The tourist would realize at once that he had struck the Land of Flowers - the City Beautiful!

Henry J. Klutho

danem

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2011, 12:39:34 PM »
I agree, (from WGV no less) downtown is the way of the future. But we'll NEVER sell it to the voters that brought us Rick Scott by telling them it's "green" or "sustainable" or even "quality of life."   We need a new pitch for people who's only interest is how cheaply they can live. The classic NIMBY, these folks don't give a damn if their park has a playground, if the school has a bus, or if the air conditioner's at the school or city hall function. "Hell when we were kids we lived in public housing, we had no air conditioner, or playground and we had to walk to school...30 miles...barefoot...on a Florida beach, and by God these tree hugging kids aren't getting another dime."  (sound familiar?)  "Give us a freeway to get out of town on as fast as possible and don't confuse us with big words like sustainable."

Most readers of this site understand the economics of dense urban development, if we are ever going to convince these people that parks are better then streets, we need a new tune.


OCKLAWAHA

Two key words/phrases that should help more are "jobs" and "high gas prices".

thelakelander

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2011, 01:08:02 PM »
For some reason, I'd suspect most who live in St. Johns and Clay Counties could care less about the urban core of a city in a different county being drained for economic opportunities in their communities.  
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north miami

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2011, 01:37:03 PM »


  There's no denying the exodus that has occurred since the fifties from the city center. Rather than destroy more wetlands or forests, develop what we already have.  That's the greenest choice, that's the long term cheapest choice, it's the healthiest choice, and by far the smartest choice.


But that's what we already done did- massive regional sprawl,conversion of open lands,working landscapes, wetland impacts all of course under the steady hand of growth management,mitigation as hordes scrambled for an alternative.(And predicted in the then Northeast Florida Regional Planning Council report on anticipated Ag Lands loss----staff person Coralie Chronister;published in the 1970's....)
Visions such as the Northeast Florida Timberlands Reserve born of the Delaney Green Era still languish relative to the early potential,so easily let loose under the radar screen,as was the Little Black Creek/Ortega McGirts valley-a process that even sucked in the Trust for Public Lands 1800 acre Brannon Chaffee parcel.
The Beltway emerged as if by magic- nothing other than the natural course of a four decade boomer booster narrative born of a different season.Our recent collective"Water Wars" focus on evil Central Florida over growth is the latest proof of our propensity towards myopic vision,which is really about awareness,of which there is little.
In addition to the growth wave already evident,clearly visible to the naked eye there is a bunch vested but yet unseen, guaranteeing not only unfolding growth impacts but also substantial inventory to drive and supply Jax Core alternative driver trends for years.
High gas prices???The 'commute' always was rediculous and costly entailing profound internal and external costs.This current round of escalating fuel prices a bonafide drag on Bedroom Communities nation wide.In our regional case,anticipate the outlying counties will foster employment centers (more Growth!) rather than a look backward towards Duval. This is already evident in the trend towards off core office parks.......and in recently adopted "Sector Plans" and other evidence of handing our head to us on a silver platter.
It's been a frankly militant anti Duval theme employed by the surrounding counties,and in the case of outlying Duval areas,a militant anti Core theme.

The saving grace for the Core,if there is any, will be the inevitable march of the surrounding "Better Places" towards becoming the very "Bad" they sold and promoted against.After all,the truly Best locations were pioneered in the beginning.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2011, 03:52:25 PM by north miami »

north miami

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2011, 06:20:31 PM »
But wait!!!
As reported in Carl Hiaasen's definitive compilation of his hardest hitting Miami Herald editorials ("Kick Ass" -'Jacksonville's Millionth Mania';North Miami quoted) did we not in fact celebrate Jacksonville's Millionth resident?? Barnett bank sponsored "Millionth Mania",fire works ****down town****.
Of course,turns out "Jacksonville's" 'millionth' resident was imported,smuggled,wrapped in fudged numbers-only by including surrounding county's could we lift "Jacksonville" to that coveted over population bench mark.
And indeed the newcommers steered clear of the Core if not Duval all together.But Duval played the Chump,a Cornerstone for sure!!Who knows,maybe a 'non group' was conjuring up Consolidation of the entire First Coast.(After all,the first crack at Duval Consolidation ,even entailing legislative action and public vote was in the 1920's)

As Carl noted in his piece,the red neck Millionth Mania certainly thwarted interest in Jackonville for many astute,a brilliant plot to depromote,and Carl's guess that "it will probably work" was prophetic.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2011, 06:25:37 PM by north miami »

spuwho

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Re: Census 2010: Urban Jacksonville In Decline
« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2011, 07:37:40 PM »
I wish we could stop promoting the urban core redevelopment without making suburban life seem immoral. There were reasons many people wanted to leave the urban cores across the country in the 1950's. This is America after all, and people can live where they choose. We should focus on how to make the core desirable again. Everyone has their wishes, urban, suburban, exurban or rural. Create an environment that is desirable, and stop painting it like some form of unethical conduct.