Author Topic: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city  (Read 5821 times)

pwhitford

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remc86007

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #1 on: January 11, 2017, 09:50:56 PM »
That study is flawed in so many ways it is laughable the business journal picked it up. There are far too many variables that are loosely related that were added together (similar to a multicollinearity problem.) Another major flaw of the study is that, based on their criteria, a city that did not suffer from the recession at all would appear to have also not recovered.

From what I've seen from wallethub, it's about like JD Power awards for cars. Great to throw on your marketing material if you win, but certainly not something to take seriously or worry about if you don't.

Kerry

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #2 on: March 08, 2017, 03:10:59 PM »
Whatever their methodology - I agree with the conclusion.  I recently moved into an apartment in downtown Oklahoma City where I live a few weeks a month.  I am simply amazed at the amount of urban core development there.  There are dozens and dozens of projects under construction and then I come back to downtown Jax and it looks like almost nothing is going on by comparison.  In 2 years OKC will have completed their 23rd downtown hotel since 2000.  4 new downtown hotels were just announced 2 weeks ago.  Last downtown hotel in Jax was when?
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jcjohnpaint

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #3 on: March 08, 2017, 07:07:07 PM »
I don't think the recession has anything to do with Jacksonville not investing in it's downtown.  Sometimes cheap is just cheap

Kerry

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #4 on: March 09, 2017, 10:39:12 AM »
I don't think the recession has anything to do with Jacksonville not investing in it's downtown.  Sometimes cheap is just cheap

Maybe, but I don't get it.  Hotels have been so easy to finance for the last 10 years - banks literally giving away the money for anyone who can throw together a loan application.  Why are no local developers getting on the bandwagon?  Downtown Jax should have 30 hotels.  What is Jax not doing that seemingly every other City in America is doing?  Are we just throwing all our tourist development dollars at the Jags and leaving nothing for anything else?
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Tacachale

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #5 on: March 09, 2017, 10:40:51 AM »
I don't think the recession has anything to do with Jacksonville not investing in it's downtown.  Sometimes cheap is just cheap

Maybe, but I don't get it.  Hotels have been so easy to finance for the last 10 years - banks literally giving away the money for anyone who can throw together a loan application.  Why are no local developers getting on the bandwagon?  Downtown Jax should have 30 hotels.  What is Jax not doing that seemingly every other City in America is doing?  Are we just throwing all our tourist development dollars at the Jags and leaving nothing for anything else?

Why would downtown Jacksonville need 30 hotels?
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Adam White

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #6 on: March 09, 2017, 10:43:57 AM »
I don't think the recession has anything to do with Jacksonville not investing in it's downtown.  Sometimes cheap is just cheap

Maybe, but I don't get it.  Hotels have been so easy to finance for the last 10 years - banks literally giving away the money for anyone who can throw together a loan application.  Why are no local developers getting on the bandwagon?  Downtown Jax should have 30 hotels.  What is Jax not doing that seemingly every other City in America is doing?  Are we just throwing all our tourist development dollars at the Jags and leaving nothing for anything else?

Why would downtown Jacksonville need 30 hotels?

Unless supply creates demand, it seems like there would be an awful large number of empty hotel rooms.
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FlaBoy

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #7 on: March 09, 2017, 10:55:00 AM »
I don't even know if there are 30 hotels in COJ lol

The Beaches need more hotels but they don't want anything built over 35 feet.

Gators312

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #8 on: March 09, 2017, 10:55:45 AM »
I don't think the recession has anything to do with Jacksonville not investing in it's downtown.  Sometimes cheap is just cheap

Maybe, but I don't get it.  Hotels have been so easy to finance for the last 10 years - banks literally giving away the money for anyone who can throw together a loan application.  Why are no local developers getting on the bandwagon?  Downtown Jax should have 30 hotels.  What is Jax not doing that seemingly every other City in America is doing?  Are we just throwing all our tourist development dollars at the Jags and leaving nothing for anything else?

Why would downtown Jacksonville need 30 hotels?

It doesn't. 

Kerry, your comparison omits the fact that we are much more spread out than OKC, almost 40% larger in land area. Then think about the beaches that are a draw and many hotel nights for our area are spent there.  Just because another city is doing it doesn't mean it is right for JAX.


Kerry

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #9 on: March 09, 2017, 10:57:00 AM »
There is demand for hotels - they are being built everywhere, except downtown and the downtown adjacent neighborhoods.  The funny thing about hotels is their economic impact when clustered together.  This is amplified when they are clustered together in a walkable area.  1000 different people every night looking for places to eat and ways to be entertained.
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Kerry

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #10 on: March 09, 2017, 11:03:11 AM »
Kerry, your comparison omits the fact that we are much more spread out than OKC, almost 40% larger in land area. Then think about the beaches that are a draw and many hotel nights for our area are spent there.  Just because another city is doing it doesn't mean it is right for JAX.

More spread out than OKC?  OKC covers 607 sq miles and while Jax covers 747 but the vast majority of Jax doesn't have any development at all.  Metro OKC covers 6,300 sq miles and has the same population as metro Jax.
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Kerry

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #11 on: March 09, 2017, 11:05:40 AM »
Reading the last few comments - maybe Jax just lacks a population who gives a crap about anything.  Self-defeat works every time.

Meanwhile - 19 hotels adjacent to the airport, with the majority of them being built in the last few years.  And no, those people aren't all flying out of JIA at 7AM.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2017, 11:14:36 AM by Kerry »
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Non-RedNeck Westsider

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #12 on: March 09, 2017, 11:20:23 AM »
I think we all have our own personal take on this, and it pretty much comes from where we were when the crash happened. 

I'm guessing, and Kerry you can confirm, that you're a PM/Super for commercial mid-rise construction.  If you were doing the same thing a a decade ago, your thought makes sense and it kind of explains why you're happen to be in another city.  Jax is coming around, but from where I was, we were decimated.

I was in residential construction from about '02 - '08, so without reading the article and with no 'world'view, just what I experienced here in Jax, I'm surprised that we aren't much higher on the list.

I say this without know the construction tendencies in other areas, but I can attest that during the peak, I personally was responsible for 5-6 starts a month for a period of about 3 years.    Now multiply that by however many hundreds of other superintendents right here in Jax. I was building 250k-500k spec homes that were being bought and sold upwards of 2 to 4 times from slab to finish - mostly investors.  When the bubble burst, I was one of tens of thousands that went from a very livable paycheck to unemployed overnight.  And our job market was dry, it wasn't like you could go down the street and get another job doing the same thing - this was an industry wide failure.

Many commercial builders lost their asses when they decided to test the waters in residential (see Auchter) because they were late in the game and were left holding a bunch of empty spaces.  So while Jax was a boon for quite a while, it also hit some very hard, because IMO our boom was mostly a paper chase and had very little to do with a physical boom of people.  That's why I think development is happening sooner in other places - we built out for nothing and we're still playing catchup, but there are a few things happening now.

I just hope the credit markets don't relax like they did in '05-'06, and people can keep their senses so we don't repeat the past.
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Tacachale

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #13 on: March 09, 2017, 11:29:05 AM »
Reading the last few comments - maybe Jax just lacks a population who gives a crap about anything.  Self-defeat works every time.

Meanwhile - 17 hotels adjacent to the airport, with the majority of them being built in the last few years.  And no, those people aren't all flying out of JIA at 7AM.

Or maybe it's just that people don't think that building 30 hotels without a demonstrated demand is a good strategy for improving Downtown. I highly doubt that hotels are what revived downtown OKC compared to other factors.

I haven't been to Oklahoma City and don't know much about it, but the impression I get is that its downtown is in better shape than ours is,  and it's more of a regional hub as it's by far the biggest city for hundreds of miles around it. I can't imagine that Tulsa, for instance, has 30 hotels in its downtown. Those things would probably contribute to a demand for more downtown hotels in OKC.
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Adam White

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Re: Ranking: Jacksonville 7th least recession-recovered large city
« Reply #14 on: March 09, 2017, 11:43:28 AM »
Reading the last few comments - maybe Jax just lacks a population who gives a crap about anything.  Self-defeat works every time.

I just think the "build it and they will come" mentality never works. Hotels (and total number of hotel rooms) should correlate to the health of downtown (and the wider city). Develop downtown and hotels will be built. As it is, there is close to nothing downtown. If Jax is experiencing a shortage of available hotel rooms downtown, then I would agree we need more. If not, I would say we need to do more to make downtown attractive to visitors.
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