^What's your thoughts on how this would potentially impact a future extension to Jacksonville?
No impact. If you recall, they registered that AAF Jax Segment a couple of years ago. Flagler would still do any/all surrounding real estate.
If the FEC is sold, these various AAF legal entities would simply continue to pay "rent" to use the ROW.
The Cocoa-MCO segment will be wholly owned by AAF and will not be part of the sale (I assume), so they could charge rent to the new FEC owner to haul freight back and forth. Last time I read the lease agreement with OOCEA, there was some language to that effect.
I am not an insider at FECI or Fortress, so all of this could be completely wrong, but the fact that they are having financing problems in getting the bonds sold, and a potential legal delay in getting the PAB's authorized, and since they have made a significant amount of PR and the dates with travel firms in Europe, its not considered abnormal for a firm to sell assets to raise cash. AAF said any PAB's brokered at anything above 8% is not worth it to them.
If the debt markets don't agree with their biz plan, and they still want to proceed, then they have to finance the effort internally. And obviously they feel the rate of return by using cash instead of bonds is better if the bond rates go above 8%.
It's very interesting because 3 years ago many rail experts up north said the AAF thing was just a prelude to selling the railroad off. No one believed it, especially after FECI spent all that money replacing their fleet of engines and investing in their Hialeah logistics center. While I assumed that setting up AAF as all of these unique legal entities was just good business practices, it seemed others saw the legal setup as a way for them to exist without actually owning the infrastructure.
I won't delve into the benefits of their entities and LLC's as they are numerous.
I spoke with several non-involved CSX people and they are all very aware of the sale, but don't think the regulators would allow CSX to own it, at least not without giving up some major assets elsewhere in Florida. CSX percentage of rail in Florida is already fairly high, and personally, I don't think CSX wants to deal with any stipulations for passenger rail. Amtrak is already a PITA for all the carriers as it is.
Norfolk Southern is already a FEC partner in freight handling through their Atlanta gateway for express to the Port of Miami, so they have the most to gain through an ownership. They have shown a less restrictive behavior about passenger rail in their territories, but have just come out of that crazy CP Rail merger attempt. Their board may not be ready to jump so quick.
The most likely (in my mind) is Genesee & Wyoming. They already run several shortlines under their umbrella and are structured like AAF is, with these micro legal entities that support these railroads they have. This would keep the FEC route a stictly "in state" entity