Author Topic: The Jacksonville Jaguars  (Read 431098 times)

duvaldude08

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3690 on: February 12, 2013, 12:45:31 PM »
Im curious to see if the "talking heads" are going to constantly refer to Arizona as the " leagues worst offense." That ran us in the ground last off season. Thus far, they have praised Arizona for hiring Arians and said they will be the surprise team in the playoffs next season.  ::) I normally try not to get into that, but it kills me when they kick us while were down, then stomp on us some more. Oh yeah, we are being referred to as a "hot mess" now per nfl.com on yesterday, but Kanasis City is not a hot mess. Right whatever  ::)
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Wacca Pilatka

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3691 on: February 12, 2013, 01:19:01 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.
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duvaldude08

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3692 on: February 12, 2013, 02:19:06 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.

What strikes me is the unprofessionalisum in sports writing. They changed some of the wording, but the first version of the Jaguars offseason forecast said "the Jaguars are a hot mess" and "Caldwell and Bradley has inhereited these hot messes." I was like "WTF? HUH? that doesnt even make sense." They eventually took that second sentence out. It is not even possible to enjoy reading sports media unless you are one of the "elite" teams. Otherwise they take a jab at you any way they can. And if you Jacksonville, youre just screwed either way. I really do the majority of my reading on Jaguars.com BUT i completely avoid the comments section. WTF is the purpose of  a comments section anyways? If it were up to me, the website would not have one. They have the fan forums for that crap.
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Wacca Pilatka

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3693 on: February 12, 2013, 04:27:32 PM »
Agreed.  Incredibly unprofessional.  I expected so much more of nfl.com and the NFL Network than what it has become.  You would think that if it represents 32 teams, it wouldn't relentlessly try to tear some of them down.
The tourist would realize at once that he had struck the Land of Flowers - the City Beautiful!

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KenFSU

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3694 on: February 13, 2013, 11:52:25 AM »
Whoa, Ken, that's pretty interesting.

Thanks Peej!

I really enjoyed your reponse, and you've got some great suggestions here! Unfortunately, I put the analysis together as a fun side project in my home office, and most of the suggestions would require far more time and resources than I have at my disposal :)

Let me briefly answer your questions...

-Did you look at day of week and time of day for the games. I imagine some of that effect can get conflated with the nationally-televised binary variable, but that is one that I would initial think to have some effect.

Yeah, I looked at time of day (I was really curious to see if the 4:15 games drew any differently than the 1:00 games, which didn't appear to be the case), as well as the day of week. And you're absolutely right. When you see correlation between increased attendance and Monday Night Football games, for example, it's damn near impossible without quality polling data to say definitively whether it's because a) the game is on national television, b) there's an evening start time, or c) the game falls on a Monday. With a sample so small some of these variables would be perfectly collinear, so there's almost got to be some best guess judgement calls going on. You could probably break down some dummy variables even further, time permitting, and get an even better idea of what's going on, but unfortunately, the time just wasn't there.

-I am always so curious about the national games. It does seem anecdotally that more people are interested in attending them. Do you think this is due to simply the fact that they are televised more widely, or because of why they were scheduled to be nationally-televised in the first place (division rival game, replay of the prior season's super-bowl, two teams that are expected to be good before the season)? I feel like there are so many factors that go into the nationally-televised game. Perhaps its a desire to be part of the event, or to fill the seats to project a better image of the Jags nationally, or the reasons discussed above for which the network wants to televise it nationally.

Same on this one. I'd love to see some polling data on it, because especially in Jacksonville, it's really hard to say. For example, on one hand, I think people want to go to these nationally televised games to show how great Jacksonville's fans are. But then you have that super weird Jacksonville thing too where if the game isn't going the Jags way by halftime, 40,000 people just randomly leave. There have been a handful of Monday Night Jags games in recent years where the stadium is almost completely empty toward the end of the game, which seems counter intuitive to the civic pride explanation. Civic pride certainly plays a part, but my best guess is that those with heavy civic pride are attending most games regardless, and that the attendance boost from nationally televised games probably comes from the fringe, non-hardcore fans who just want to be a part of the big thing going on in the city that day.

-For winning percentage, is "seasonal" the end-of-season or the season to that point?

I tested a variety of different measures here. Winning percentage on the season can be a little misleading, simply because a 1-0 Jaguars team that fluked into a win to start the season would register as a more winning team than a 15-1 team who destroyed their competition all year. Likewise, for opponents, an eventual Super Bowl winner who loses their first game (0%) would register lower than a one-win (1-15) team that the Jags play on the last day of the season. Quick, dirty, and ad hoc, but in addition to current-day winning percentage, I settled on testing winning percentage over last 10 games (which, for opponents, was pretty close to winning percentage on the season, actually). Like I mentioned, I also tried to test a few momentum based variables as well (record for last three games, did the Jags win their previous game, did the Jags win their previous home game, etc.), as well as a variable for previous season winning percentage and a dummy variable for a winning/losing previous season. I'm sure there's an even better way to weight this variable, but I had a really rough time finding a correlation between any of these home team winning variables and attendance that would suggest that people come to Jags games when the team is winning who otherwise wouldn't if the team were losing.

-Do you have anything like pre-season rankings in there, or some variable that measures the "hype" (media coverage, big pickups/trades, etc)?

None, unfortunately. The rough model that I came up with only accounted for half of the variation in game-to-game attendance. I would guess that these factors, though difficult and time-consuming to quantify, would definitely factor in. Even harder to factor in, but probably what you're referring to here overall, is overall local attitude toward the team, both on the field, and as a stable fixture in Jacksonville. I've noticed, for example, that the city's fanbase has a tendency to turn on the team, both in spending and in attitude, whenever relocation rumors pick up steam (even if they are false). It's quite sad to see.

-I would think it might be more telling to measure the relative popularity by a weighted variable (fan base, population in home market, merchandise sales, local fans even [I bet you could get data on that]) rather than ranking. I would expect that to give this variable more resolution.

Absolutely agree. Using the Harris Poll was another quick and dirty shortcut that could likely be done much better (and most certainly has) using a bigger, more thorough data set than I was able to compile.

-I don't know about removing 3/4 of the 2009 season from the equation. Perhaps an additional dummy variable thrown in so that you could differentiate what you believe to be an outlier, but there is still differences between the data for those 6 games that might be of interest. Plus, those games were coming off a very bad season, so your trailing-10 percentage may actually show some movement in addition to the "recession" variable.

Fantastic suggestion. I'm going to look into this.

-I wonder, does your seasonal normalization for economic effects also remove any annual effects from changes in the team (hype, pre-season rankings, previous season record, hirings/firings, etc)? If every game is normalized by the average attendance that season, then there would be nothing to show for changes between seasons, right?

Aside from the win/loss variables that I spread between over adjacent seasons, you're correct. I'm fairly confident that changes in mean season attendance are influenced first and foremost by economic factors. For example, if you plot mean season attendance for the last few years versus the unemployment rate in our MSA, it's like looking in a mirror. Unemployment goes up, attendance goes down. Unemployment drops, attendance increases. But there are definitely outside factors (such as the Jags relatively historic offseason, for example) that would influence mean attendance for the 2013 season as well.

This is good stuff. You should do it for every season AND every team

As a numbers nerd, such a study would be amazing fun. But also an amazing amount of work. I'm going to try doing a journal search tonight, however. I could almost guarantee that someone has already done something similar, with better resources and more data.

Would be a fun crowd-sourcing project too with a large group of people.

If quality polling could be conducted, we could probably paint an even better picture of what truly influences Jags attendance.
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spuwho

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3695 on: February 13, 2013, 05:45:11 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.

What strikes me is the unprofessionalisum in sports writing. They changed some of the wording, but the first version of the Jaguars offseason forecast said "the Jaguars are a hot mess" and "Caldwell and Bradley has inhereited these hot messes." I was like "WTF? HUH? that doesnt even make sense." They eventually took that second sentence out. It is not even possible to enjoy reading sports media unless you are one of the "elite" teams. Otherwise they take a jab at you any way they can. And if you Jacksonville, youre just screwed either way. I really do the majority of my reading on Jaguars.com BUT i completely avoid the comments section. WTF is the purpose of  a comments section anyways? If it were up to me, the website would not have one. They have the fan forums for that crap.

When I lived up north I recall some of the grousing around all of the darling press Carolina and Jacksonville were getting. They were expansion teams, they were winning and for awhile people thought how cool it would be if we had an expansion bowl. That did not go over very well with some well established teams in the NFL. Especially those who were going through massive turnovers in personnel through free agency and the draft. There was a little resentment that 2 small market teams got to get a pick of everyones litter while they continued to work the draft.

Now that Carolina and Jacksonville have lost their expansion glimmer, no one is going be "nice" for no reason.

If the Jags turn it around (and they will eventually) and the wins stack back up, I can assure you the press will fall back in line and you won't see the stuff shoveled out. Look what happened to the relocation talk? It just moved on.

I can remember when Green Bay's future was in doubt and they started playing games at Milwaukee Municipal. For 2 years the press was ringing it up that Green Bay might have to move. They upset a lot of people with that bad press.

The solution to bad press is easy peasy. Just Win.

The only team in the NFL that gets a free shake in the press is the Dallas Cowboys. Regardless of their record they always garner promotional press. Geez, even when they hit 8-8, the headliners are positive.

comncense

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3696 on: February 13, 2013, 06:01:46 PM »
I think DuvalDude posted a version of the rumored helmet a few days ago. I saw one of my friends on Facebook post this today.

I-10east

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3697 on: February 13, 2013, 06:21:36 PM »
I liked the teal helmet one that blizz01 posted earlier better on page 240. To me it makes no sense in altering actual the primary logo (which is a gold black-spotted jaguar with teal tongue, eyes, and nose) for a gold sketched 'novelty T-Shirt-like' logo; I would be shocked if that comes to fruition.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2013, 06:30:33 PM by I-10east »

spuwho

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3698 on: February 13, 2013, 06:27:44 PM »
If the new helmet uses a teal-black flip flop paint, it would always look fresh and unique from every angle.

Just a thought.  Can you render a 3D image of a helmet with flip flop paint?

duvaldude08

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3699 on: February 13, 2013, 10:01:15 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.

What strikes me is the unprofessionalisum in sports writing. They changed some of the wording, but the first version of the Jaguars offseason forecast said "the Jaguars are a hot mess" and "Caldwell and Bradley has inhereited these hot messes." I was like "WTF? HUH? that doesnt even make sense." They eventually took that second sentence out. It is not even possible to enjoy reading sports media unless you are one of the "elite" teams. Otherwise they take a jab at you any way they can. And if you Jacksonville, youre just screwed either way. I really do the majority of my reading on Jaguars.com BUT i completely avoid the comments section. WTF is the purpose of  a comments section anyways? If it were up to me, the website would not have one. They have the fan forums for that crap.

When I lived up north I recall some of the grousing around all of the darling press Carolina and Jacksonville were getting. They were expansion teams, they were winning and for awhile people thought how cool it would be if we had an expansion bowl. That did not go over very well with some well established teams in the NFL. Especially those who were going through massive turnovers in personnel through free agency and the draft. There was a little resentment that 2 small market teams got to get a pick of everyones litter while they continued to work the draft.

Now that Carolina and Jacksonville have lost their expansion glimmer, no one is going be "nice" for no reason.

If the Jags turn it around (and they will eventually) and the wins stack back up, I can assure you the press will fall back in line and you won't see the stuff shoveled out. Look what happened to the relocation talk? It just moved on.

I can remember when Green Bay's future was in doubt and they started playing games at Milwaukee Municipal. For 2 years the press was ringing it up that Green Bay might have to move. They upset a lot of people with that bad press.

The solution to bad press is easy peasy. Just Win.

The only team in the NFL that gets a free shake in the press is the Dallas Cowboys. Regardless of their record they always garner promotional press. Geez, even when they hit 8-8, the headliners are positive.

Now that is true. When you win they shut up, but you have to admit, Jax gets  a little extra kick in the head when their down. Carolina has been stinking it up since their superbowl run and to be honest, I have not heard the constant, literally bashing that we get. At all. When the pathners were 2-14 and had the leagues worst offense, it wasnt constantly ran in the ground. Actually had I not looked it up, I would not have known that had the leagues worse offense a few years ago. Theres definately a HUGE bais when it comes to Jax. Hell Kansas City was 2-14 and they have so much "hope" for next season and the cardinals are predicted to make the playoffs after having the leagues worse offense. We can go all day about this, which is why I usually kept these kinda things to my self. They honestly dont bother me as much any more, it just bubbles up sometimes when I get tired of the garbage. And to be honest, 3 super bowl titles wont change how they feel about this franchise. It will shut them up, but theyll be on stand by waiting on us to slip. Even when we first got the franchise they hated our guts, they just couldnt find anything negative say. Theyve wanted us to fail from day one. So anything negative that comes from Jax they are going to pounce it.
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Shwaz

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3700 on: February 14, 2013, 09:27:54 AM »
Love the matte black helmet! Saw those on Missouri last year and really liked them. Here's a couple more renderings floating around -







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spuwho

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3701 on: February 14, 2013, 06:15:40 PM »
And to be honest, 3 super bowl titles wont change how they feel about this franchise. It will shut them up, but theyll be on stand by waiting on us to slip. Even when we first got the franchise they hated our guts, they just couldnt find anything negative say. Theyve wanted us to fail from day one. So anything negative that comes from Jax they are going to pounce it.

The general feedback up north when they announced the new franchises was total shock when Jacksonville was on the list. Charlotte, people knew, but Jacksonville? Many people didn't even know where it was in Florida. Serious, even today, most people know where Tampa, Orlando and Miami are, but for the most part, outside of Florida, very few people know where Jacksonville even is.

That is still in force today as the media, most of which were alive when those choices were made, DO have a bias about the First Coast.

As the years pass, those biases will dissipate as a new generation of fans (and media) grow up not knowing anything different.

Other than old timers, who cares that the Colts left Baltimore? Al Michaels might mention it on SNF, but no one really cares anymore.

duvaldude08

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3702 on: February 14, 2013, 06:19:48 PM »
Well I dont care about anything right now. I just got my season ticket renewal package with the poster and car decal in it! I am tingly all over right now. The new logo looks awesome. Ive added the poster to the shrine in my "man cave" and Ive already put the decal on my car.  ;D
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Wacca Pilatka

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3703 on: February 14, 2013, 06:35:18 PM »
The general feedback up north when they announced the new franchises was total shock when Jacksonville was on the list. Charlotte, people knew, but Jacksonville? Many people didn't even know where it was in Florida. Serious, even today, most people know where Tampa, Orlando and Miami are, but for the most part, outside of Florida, very few people know where Jacksonville even is.

Out of all the infamous remarks in Woody Paige's legendary column from 1997, the most striking to me was and always will be when he called Jacksonville "the only city in Florida without a beach."
The tourist would realize at once that he had struck the Land of Flowers - the City Beautiful!

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I-10east

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Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3704 on: February 14, 2013, 08:00:02 PM »
Well I dont care about anything right now. I just got my season ticket renewal package with the poster and car decal in it! I am tingly all over right now. The new logo looks awesome. Ive added the poster to the shrine in my "man cave" and Ive already put the decal on my car.  ;D

Yeah, I got mine also. I like the poster, but I'm gonna have a hard time finding a frame (with plastic cover) that will fit it since it's so awkwardly long lengthwise in relation to how short it is in height. (33 X 17) LOL