Author Topic: The Jacksonville Jaguars  (Read 1056164 times)

PeeJayEss

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 925
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3675 on: February 11, 2013, 11:59:19 AM »
KenFSU get ready for a "nu-uh" type arguement littered with with sarcasm

Thanks for your great contribution to the thread, and for your grasp of irony (in your defense, this sentence is littered with sarcasm), but not uh!

Whoa, Ken, that's pretty interesting.

I actually conducted a pretty in-depth regression analysis on Jaguars attendance last year, examining regular season games played from 2005 onward (after stadium capacity was reduced to 67,164), omitting that bizarre stretch of six consecutive home games at the beginning of the 2009 season that saw attendance drop by nearly 20,000 per game due to a sharp economic downturn coupled with widespread rumors that Weaver was in talks to move the franchise to Los Angeles.

I looked at every (non-economic) variable I could think of, from winning percentage, to past season winning percentage, to opponent attributes, to game day temperature, to national television coverage, all the way down to chance of rain, in an attempt to identify factors that affected attendance (keeping in mind changes in how attendance was reported over various seasons).

To strip some of the economic influence from attendance numbers, I modeled the data with the belief that mean annual attendance was roughly representative of what the market could support in that particular economy in that particular year. And conversely, any deviation from that mean was largely a reflection of consumer taste or distaste for each week’s particular game based on our multitude of independent variables. Thus, in order to roughly normalize attendance data against much broader economic effects, instead of using actual attendance as my dependent variable, I used actual attendance relative the seasonal mean (actual attendance for the game minus mean attendance for that year’s season). This calculation output the number of fans over or under that year’s mean that attended each game based on the given set of variables.

Of all of these many factors, I found exactly three variables that had a pronounced effect on attendance.

I"ll copy and paste from my findings:

"The first statistically significant independent variable is opponent's winning percentage, which has a beta of 1,302.14. Holding all other variables constant, attendance will increase by approximately 1,300 fans over seasonal mean if the opponent is undefeated (seasonal and prior-10 game records yielded similar results), increase by 650 fans for a team with an equal number of wins and losses (b1 x 0.5), all the way down to an increase of zero fans for a team that has not yet won a game (b1 x 0.00). This indicates that city residents have a preference for watching winning opponents play.

The second significant independent variable was relative popularity of opponent. Every year, Harris Interactive – a market research firm headquartered in New York City – releases a popularity ranking of NFL teams, listing each franchise from the most popular to the least. Using this variable allowed me to examine how the overall popularity of the visiting team impacted home game attendance here in Jacksonville. This variable yields a beta of 30.62. For the sake of a clearer equation, I inverted the popularity rankings before running regression analysis. By inverting the popularity rankings (most popular team =31, least popular =0), a positive rather than negative beta is produced. This beta demonstrates that for each additional tick upwards in opponent popularity, approximately 31 additional fans will attend a game. For example, the 10th most popular team in the league (inverted to 31-10 = 21) would draw approximately 651 additional fans (31 x 21) to the Jaguars’ stadium.

The final statistically significant independent variable tested was national television coverage, which yielded a beta of 479.17.  Because this independent variable is binary and either switched off (0 for no national television) or on (1 for national television), the beta simply states that 479 residents will make their decision on whether to attend the game based on if it is or isn't on national television.

What was most surprising is that the independent variable that I initially felt would show the strongest correlation with attendance (Jaguars winning percentage) actually showed no statistically relevant correlation. In fact, Jaguars attendance seems far more correlated with characteristics of the visiting team than the performance of the home team. Jacksonville – like other large cities in Florida – has a large population of transplants from other areas of the country. Perhaps these transplants, along with a desire to "see the stars come to town' may factor into consumer preference appearing to be so opponent-driven."


Of course you can never isolate every variable, and things like marketing and advertising expenditure certainly can increase attendance, but the point is, it's realllly hard to show any statistical correlation between winning and attendance here in Jacksonville.

Couple of questions:
-Did you look at day of week and time of day for the games. I imagine some of that effect can get conflated with the nationally-televised binary variable, but that is one that I would initial think to have some effect.
-I am always so curious about the national games. It does seem anecdotally that more people are interested in attending them. Do you think this is due to simply the fact that they are televised more widely, or because of why they were scheduled to be nationally-televised in the first place (division rival game, replay of the prior season's super-bowl, two teams that are expected to be good before the season)? I feel like there are so many factors that go into the nationally-televised game. Perhaps its a desire to be part of the event, or to fill the seats to project a better image of the Jags nationally, or the reasons discussed above for which the network wants to televise it nationally.
-For winning percentage, is "seasonal" the end-of-season or the season to that point?
-Do you have anything like pre-season rankings in there, or some variable that measures the "hype" (media coverage, big pickups/trades, etc)?
-I would think it might be more telling to measure the relative popularity by a weighted variable (fan base, population in home market, merchandise sales, local fans even [I bet you could get data on that]) rather than ranking. I would expect that to give this variable more resolution.
-I don't know about removing 3/4 of the 2009 season from the equation. Perhaps an additional dummy variable thrown in so that you could differentiate what you believe to be an outlier, but there is still differences between the data for those 6 games that might be of interest. Plus, those games were coming off a very bad season, so your trailing-10 percentage may actually show some movement in addition to the "recession" variable.
-I wonder, does your seasonal normalization for economic effects also remove any annual effects from changes in the team (hype, pre-season rankings, previous season record, hirings/firings, etc)? If every game is normalized by the average attendance that season, then there would be nothing to show for changes between seasons, right?

This is good stuff. You should do it for every season AND every team.  :P Can metrojax fund some research?

duvaldude08

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4513
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3676 on: February 11, 2013, 05:42:29 PM »
Macky Weaver resigns.

Quote
Jaguars senior VP of sales Macky Weaver resigns
Weaver was charter member of team's front office
Published On: Feb 11 2013 04:28:26 PM EST  Updated On: Feb 11 2013 04:31:20 PM EST
Small TextMedium TextLarge Text.Print Email Tweet  .

Macky Weaver (left) sits alongside his uncle, former Jaguars owner Wayne Weaver, at a news conference in 2011.
JACKSONVILLE, Fla. - Macky Weaver, a charter member of the Jacksonville Jaguars' front office, announced his resignation from the team Monday after 19 years with the organization.

He will leave later this month to "explore other career opportunities," a news release reads.

The Jaguars announced Weaver's resignation to team staff Monday, along with the following appointments:

•Hussain Naqi has been promoted to senior vice president of fan engagement, effective immediately.
•Chad Johnson has been promoted to senior vice president of ticket sales, effective immediately.
•Megha Parekh will join the organization on March 1 as vice president and general counsel. Parekh is currently an associate at Proskauer Rose LLP in New York.
Weaver held the title of senior vice president of sales since 2010 and has served the Jaguars in a variety of marketing roles since joining the franchise in 1994 under original owner Wayne Weaver.

"Macky Weaver is one of a handful of people who can say they helped put the Jaguars on the map here in Jacksonville, and he should always be very proud of that," Jaguars owner Shad Khan said. "I'll always appreciate his personal efforts to introduce me to the community and make me feel at home as the new owner of the Jaguars."

"I would like to thank Wayne and Shad for giving me the opportunity they have given me over the past 19 years," Weaver said. "I am proud of the people I worked with and what we were able to accomplish, especially the past three years of having all home games televised. Finally, I will always be the biggest Jaguars supporter as I understand what the Jaguars mean to Jacksonville. I will continue to make sure our community doesn't lose sight of that importance."

Weaver will act as a senior adviser to Jaguars president Mark Lamping in 2013.

"Macky's contributions to the Jaguars will be lasting, and I am happy that I will be able to call on him in the future," Lamping said. "Macky will be a success in the next stage of his career, and we thank him for all he did for the Jaguars and our community. Everyone in the Jaguars family wishes Macky and his family the very best. Macky leaves the Jaguars as a friend."

Copyright 2013 by News4Jax.com. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Jaguars 2.0

spuwho

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5092
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3677 on: February 11, 2013, 07:42:11 PM »
Who is left from the old regime now? Anyone?

duvaldude08

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4513
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3678 on: February 11, 2013, 09:38:06 PM »
Who is left from the old regime now? Anyone?

Same thing I was thinking.
Jaguars 2.0

kells904

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 204
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3679 on: February 12, 2013, 12:20:22 AM »
The mascot.

duvaldude08

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4513
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3680 on: February 12, 2013, 09:04:48 AM »
The mascot.

And he's getting pretty old now. He's not gonna be able to do all those stunts after awhile  ;D
Jaguars 2.0

copperfiend

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3479
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3681 on: February 12, 2013, 10:44:00 AM »
Who is left from the old regime now? Anyone?

I think some people in scouting are still there. Tim Mingey is one but he is probably close to retirement. Other than that, Brian Sexton is the only one that comes to mind.

duvaldude08

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4513
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3682 on: February 12, 2013, 12:45:31 PM »
Im curious to see if the "talking heads" are going to constantly refer to Arizona as the " leagues worst offense." That ran us in the ground last off season. Thus far, they have praised Arizona for hiring Arians and said they will be the surprise team in the playoffs next season.  ::) I normally try not to get into that, but it kills me when they kick us while were down, then stomp on us some more. Oh yeah, we are being referred to as a "hot mess" now per nfl.com on yesterday, but Kanasis City is not a hot mess. Right whatever  ::)
Jaguars 2.0

Wacca Pilatka

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1975
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3683 on: February 12, 2013, 01:19:01 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.
The tourist would realize at once that he had struck the Land of Flowers - the City Beautiful!

Henry J. Klutho

duvaldude08

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4513
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3684 on: February 12, 2013, 02:19:06 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.

What strikes me is the unprofessionalisum in sports writing. They changed some of the wording, but the first version of the Jaguars offseason forecast said "the Jaguars are a hot mess" and "Caldwell and Bradley has inhereited these hot messes." I was like "WTF? HUH? that doesnt even make sense." They eventually took that second sentence out. It is not even possible to enjoy reading sports media unless you are one of the "elite" teams. Otherwise they take a jab at you any way they can. And if you Jacksonville, youre just screwed either way. I really do the majority of my reading on Jaguars.com BUT i completely avoid the comments section. WTF is the purpose of  a comments section anyways? If it were up to me, the website would not have one. They have the fan forums for that crap.
Jaguars 2.0

Wacca Pilatka

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1975
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3685 on: February 12, 2013, 04:27:32 PM »
Agreed.  Incredibly unprofessional.  I expected so much more of nfl.com and the NFL Network than what it has become.  You would think that if it represents 32 teams, it wouldn't relentlessly try to tear some of them down.
The tourist would realize at once that he had struck the Land of Flowers - the City Beautiful!

Henry J. Klutho

KenFSU

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2644
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3686 on: February 13, 2013, 11:52:25 AM »
Whoa, Ken, that's pretty interesting.

Thanks Peej!

I really enjoyed your reponse, and you've got some great suggestions here! Unfortunately, I put the analysis together as a fun side project in my home office, and most of the suggestions would require far more time and resources than I have at my disposal :)

Let me briefly answer your questions...

-Did you look at day of week and time of day for the games. I imagine some of that effect can get conflated with the nationally-televised binary variable, but that is one that I would initial think to have some effect.

Yeah, I looked at time of day (I was really curious to see if the 4:15 games drew any differently than the 1:00 games, which didn't appear to be the case), as well as the day of week. And you're absolutely right. When you see correlation between increased attendance and Monday Night Football games, for example, it's damn near impossible without quality polling data to say definitively whether it's because a) the game is on national television, b) there's an evening start time, or c) the game falls on a Monday. With a sample so small some of these variables would be perfectly collinear, so there's almost got to be some best guess judgement calls going on. You could probably break down some dummy variables even further, time permitting, and get an even better idea of what's going on, but unfortunately, the time just wasn't there.

-I am always so curious about the national games. It does seem anecdotally that more people are interested in attending them. Do you think this is due to simply the fact that they are televised more widely, or because of why they were scheduled to be nationally-televised in the first place (division rival game, replay of the prior season's super-bowl, two teams that are expected to be good before the season)? I feel like there are so many factors that go into the nationally-televised game. Perhaps its a desire to be part of the event, or to fill the seats to project a better image of the Jags nationally, or the reasons discussed above for which the network wants to televise it nationally.

Same on this one. I'd love to see some polling data on it, because especially in Jacksonville, it's really hard to say. For example, on one hand, I think people want to go to these nationally televised games to show how great Jacksonville's fans are. But then you have that super weird Jacksonville thing too where if the game isn't going the Jags way by halftime, 40,000 people just randomly leave. There have been a handful of Monday Night Jags games in recent years where the stadium is almost completely empty toward the end of the game, which seems counter intuitive to the civic pride explanation. Civic pride certainly plays a part, but my best guess is that those with heavy civic pride are attending most games regardless, and that the attendance boost from nationally televised games probably comes from the fringe, non-hardcore fans who just want to be a part of the big thing going on in the city that day.

-For winning percentage, is "seasonal" the end-of-season or the season to that point?

I tested a variety of different measures here. Winning percentage on the season can be a little misleading, simply because a 1-0 Jaguars team that fluked into a win to start the season would register as a more winning team than a 15-1 team who destroyed their competition all year. Likewise, for opponents, an eventual Super Bowl winner who loses their first game (0%) would register lower than a one-win (1-15) team that the Jags play on the last day of the season. Quick, dirty, and ad hoc, but in addition to current-day winning percentage, I settled on testing winning percentage over last 10 games (which, for opponents, was pretty close to winning percentage on the season, actually). Like I mentioned, I also tried to test a few momentum based variables as well (record for last three games, did the Jags win their previous game, did the Jags win their previous home game, etc.), as well as a variable for previous season winning percentage and a dummy variable for a winning/losing previous season. I'm sure there's an even better way to weight this variable, but I had a really rough time finding a correlation between any of these home team winning variables and attendance that would suggest that people come to Jags games when the team is winning who otherwise wouldn't if the team were losing.

-Do you have anything like pre-season rankings in there, or some variable that measures the "hype" (media coverage, big pickups/trades, etc)?

None, unfortunately. The rough model that I came up with only accounted for half of the variation in game-to-game attendance. I would guess that these factors, though difficult and time-consuming to quantify, would definitely factor in. Even harder to factor in, but probably what you're referring to here overall, is overall local attitude toward the team, both on the field, and as a stable fixture in Jacksonville. I've noticed, for example, that the city's fanbase has a tendency to turn on the team, both in spending and in attitude, whenever relocation rumors pick up steam (even if they are false). It's quite sad to see.

-I would think it might be more telling to measure the relative popularity by a weighted variable (fan base, population in home market, merchandise sales, local fans even [I bet you could get data on that]) rather than ranking. I would expect that to give this variable more resolution.

Absolutely agree. Using the Harris Poll was another quick and dirty shortcut that could likely be done much better (and most certainly has) using a bigger, more thorough data set than I was able to compile.

-I don't know about removing 3/4 of the 2009 season from the equation. Perhaps an additional dummy variable thrown in so that you could differentiate what you believe to be an outlier, but there is still differences between the data for those 6 games that might be of interest. Plus, those games were coming off a very bad season, so your trailing-10 percentage may actually show some movement in addition to the "recession" variable.

Fantastic suggestion. I'm going to look into this.

-I wonder, does your seasonal normalization for economic effects also remove any annual effects from changes in the team (hype, pre-season rankings, previous season record, hirings/firings, etc)? If every game is normalized by the average attendance that season, then there would be nothing to show for changes between seasons, right?

Aside from the win/loss variables that I spread between over adjacent seasons, you're correct. I'm fairly confident that changes in mean season attendance are influenced first and foremost by economic factors. For example, if you plot mean season attendance for the last few years versus the unemployment rate in our MSA, it's like looking in a mirror. Unemployment goes up, attendance goes down. Unemployment drops, attendance increases. But there are definitely outside factors (such as the Jags relatively historic offseason, for example) that would influence mean attendance for the 2013 season as well.

This is good stuff. You should do it for every season AND every team

As a numbers nerd, such a study would be amazing fun. But also an amazing amount of work. I'm going to try doing a journal search tonight, however. I could almost guarantee that someone has already done something similar, with better resources and more data.

Would be a fun crowd-sourcing project too with a large group of people.

If quality polling could be conducted, we could probably paint an even better picture of what truly influences Jags attendance.
Big League City! 100 Years of Football in Jacksonville, with foreword by Shad Khan, now available!
http://www.amazon.com/Big-League-City-Football-Jacksonville/dp/0990342409/

spuwho

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 5092
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3687 on: February 13, 2013, 05:45:11 PM »
Don't read nfl.com. 

Rather than being a vehicle for promoting and providing info on all 32 teams and advancing the NFL as a whole, it's become an ESPN-like cesspool for promoting the glamour teams and ridiculing the less glamorous.

What strikes me is the unprofessionalisum in sports writing. They changed some of the wording, but the first version of the Jaguars offseason forecast said "the Jaguars are a hot mess" and "Caldwell and Bradley has inhereited these hot messes." I was like "WTF? HUH? that doesnt even make sense." They eventually took that second sentence out. It is not even possible to enjoy reading sports media unless you are one of the "elite" teams. Otherwise they take a jab at you any way they can. And if you Jacksonville, youre just screwed either way. I really do the majority of my reading on Jaguars.com BUT i completely avoid the comments section. WTF is the purpose of  a comments section anyways? If it were up to me, the website would not have one. They have the fan forums for that crap.

When I lived up north I recall some of the grousing around all of the darling press Carolina and Jacksonville were getting. They were expansion teams, they were winning and for awhile people thought how cool it would be if we had an expansion bowl. That did not go over very well with some well established teams in the NFL. Especially those who were going through massive turnovers in personnel through free agency and the draft. There was a little resentment that 2 small market teams got to get a pick of everyones litter while they continued to work the draft.

Now that Carolina and Jacksonville have lost their expansion glimmer, no one is going be "nice" for no reason.

If the Jags turn it around (and they will eventually) and the wins stack back up, I can assure you the press will fall back in line and you won't see the stuff shoveled out. Look what happened to the relocation talk? It just moved on.

I can remember when Green Bay's future was in doubt and they started playing games at Milwaukee Municipal. For 2 years the press was ringing it up that Green Bay might have to move. They upset a lot of people with that bad press.

The solution to bad press is easy peasy. Just Win.

The only team in the NFL that gets a free shake in the press is the Dallas Cowboys. Regardless of their record they always garner promotional press. Geez, even when they hit 8-8, the headliners are positive.

comncense

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 662
    • Facebook
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3688 on: February 13, 2013, 06:01:46 PM »
I think DuvalDude posted a version of the rumored helmet a few days ago. I saw one of my friends on Facebook post this today.

I-10east

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4936
Re: The Jacksonville Jaguars
« Reply #3689 on: February 13, 2013, 06:21:36 PM »
I liked the teal helmet one that blizz01 posted earlier better on page 240. To me it makes no sense in altering actual the primary logo (which is a gold black-spotted jaguar with teal tongue, eyes, and nose) for a gold sketched 'novelty T-Shirt-like' logo; I would be shocked if that comes to fruition.
« Last Edit: February 13, 2013, 06:30:33 PM by I-10east »