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An Overview of the Series
Part 1 – How Jacksonville became an NFL city
Part 2 – NFL Economics: What’s changed since 1995?
Part 3 – Jaguars on the Field: How do we compare?
Part 4 – Jacksonville and College Football
Part 5 – Jacksonville vs. Other Small Markets
Part 6 – NFL Relocations and the LA Stadium Plan
Part 7 – What does the future hold?
On the field, the Jaguars have been a competitive team year after year. They have only had a losing record five times (1995, 2000-2003 and 2008), and have been to the AFC Championship game twice, and to the divisional (second) round of the playoffs four times in their 15 year history. Despite the fact that they haven't been to a Super Bowl in their history, there are many teams that would take the Jaguars record over the past 15 years (Lions, Browns, Bengals, anyone?). Despite this, support for the team ebbs and flows year to year. There are a few reasons for fans decision to be fickle when deciding to buy season tickets, but the main reason is simple: Because they can. Now, we'll come back to that later in the series, but instead let's look at how the team has compared with the rest of the league over the last 15 years.
1995 - 2001: Michael Hyugue and the AFC Central
The Jaguars were placed in the AFC Central in their first season, not for any geographic reason, but mainly because the division only had four teams – the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns (who became the Baltimore Ravens in 1996), Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Oilers (Who moved to Tennessee in 1997). Their first year, they went 4-12, which had it not been for the Carolina Panthers who went 7-9, they would have set a record for an expansion team. Midway through the 1996 season, the Jaguars were 4-7, and some were calling for Head Coach Tom Coughlin’s head (notice the trend of impatience in this city with football). Then, in what seemed like a meaningless game with the Baltimore Ravens (who were 3-8 at the time), the Jaguars won when Ravens Quarterback Vinny Testaverde fumbled just as the Ravens were about to kick the game winning field goal. They didn’t lose again until the AFC Championship Game. For the next three years, the Jaguars were one of the most dominant teams in the NFL.
The team did a decent job of drafting as well, keeping the team competitive. Their drafts yielded many of the team’s stars in the early years, such as Tony Boselli, Kevin Hardy, Fred Taylor, Donovan Darius and Tony Brackens. However, while the team was doing well with the draft, the Jaguars front office was not doing a very good job managing their salary cap.
Running Back Fred Taylor - one of the Jaguars best draft picks ever
In the 1998 and 1999 seasons, the Jaguars signed a lot of high-priced free agents to deals that put them in a difficult financial position in future years. Remember, with the NFL's salary cap, you can promise to pay players in future seasons (what's known as "pushing money out"), however eventually you will have to count that money against a future year's salary cap. This leaves less money to spend those years on players. That financial position forced the team to let many of their star players, like Keenan McCardell and Tony Boselli, go from 2000 - 2002.
Because of salary cap mismanagement, the team was forced to let many of their marquee players go, such as Tony Boselli, who became the first draft pick of the expansion Houston Texans
2002: Tom Coughlin Runs Himself Out of Town
With Michael Hyugue’s departure, Tom Coughlin (who was already the Head Coach and Offensive Coordinator) assumed the role of General Manager. Putting all of pressure on himself, there was no one else to blame after a 6-10 finish, and he was fired shortly after the end of the season.
Despite their forgettable on-field performance, Coughlin’s draft performance was actually pretty good. Coughlin’s last two first round picks were Marcus Stroud and John Henderson, who would serve as a dominant tackle tandem for many years in a row, ending only when Stroud was dealt to Buffalo after suffering repeated injuries.
Something else that did not go in their favor - the NFL realignment. With the Houston Texans entering the league, the NFL took the time to realign the league's divisions. The Jaguars were split away from all of their division opponents, except for the Tennessee Titans, and moved to the AFC South with the expansion Texans and the Indianapolis Colts. While this isn't necessarily a bad thing in the long term (the Jaguars have now developed nice rivalries with all three teams, for a franchise in transition it created a period of no rivals.
2003 - 2008: Jack Del Rio, Shack Harris and the “Consensus” Model
Wayne Weaver ushered in 2003 with the introduction of Jack Del Rio as the team's second head coach. That year also brought Shack Harris to Jacksonville. Now, instead of one person having ultimate authority over player personnel, they instituted the consensus model, where Del Rio, Harris and the personnel team would decide together on personnel decisions, but Harris had final authority. This led to a series of subpar first round picks (remember Byron Leftwich, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones?) and draft classes that lacked depth. Furthermore, the Jaguars have just two players on their roster from their 2008 draft: Harvey and Quentin Groves (who is now a backup). And people wonder why this team is rebuilding once again?
Matt Jones and Reggie Williams: Both first round picks from Shack Harris, both arrested for cocaine posession, both no longer employed by any NFL Team
It actually wasn’t all bad. They did hit a home run with second round picks Rashean Mathis and Maurice Jones-Drew. They also acquired excellent players such as linebackers Clint Ingram, Daryl Smith and Justin Durant, wide receiver Mike Sims-Walker, guard Vince Manuwai, fullback Greg Jones and kicker Josh Scobee. However, their below average track record led to a 5-11 season in 2008, and Shack Harris was not retained.
2009: Gene Smith – The Jaguars First General Manager Comes from Within
After the departure of Shack Harris, Wayne Weaver named Gene Smith, who started with the Jaguars in 1994 as a bottom of the ranks scout, the team’s first General Manager. In this role, Gene Smith would have overall responsibility for all player personnel decisions. This was the first time in team history that one person would have this responsibility. Based on his first draft, they appear to have hit a home run: Their first four picks are all starting and performing mostly well (first round pick Eugene Monroe has had some rough spots), and the rest have all contributed this season.
Gene Smith faced a lot of draft day criticism for trading next year's second round draft pick to draft Derek Cox (above), however Cox has proven to me more than worthy of the decision.
On the field, the Jaguars have been up and down, typical of a young team that is rebuilding. As of the writing of this article, the Jaguars record is 6-5, and if the season ended today, they would be in the playoffs, traveling to San Diego (ironic considering they’ve been outscored 61-3 west of the Rockies) in the first round.
However, let’s take a step back for a second: The season doesn’t end today. They have five games left and four competitive ones (vs. 5-6 Houston, vs. 5-6 Miami, vs. 11-0 Indianapolis, but may actually be resting starters for the playoffs by then, at 7-4 New England, and at 1-10 Cleveland).
What’s This All Tell Us?
Let’s face it, the Jaguars have been an average or better team all but five of their years. Their record from 2004-2008 is 45-35, one of the best in the NFL. It doesn’t necessarily sound as good as some of the local college teams, because in the NFL, there are no Vanderbilts, Western Kentuckys or Central Michigans.
The only certain thing is that all teams, no matter how good they are for a given number of years, will have their dark days. While everyone will remember the 70’s Steelers, the 80’s 49ers, the 90’s Cowboys or the 2000’s Patriots, you can't forget about the collosal disappointments of the 80’s Steelers, the 2000’s 49ers, the 80’s Cowboys or the 70’s Patriots.
One other interesting fact: Since 1960 (excluding the strike-shortened year of 1982), there are only two teams that have never had a season with less than four wins: the Green Bay Packers and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Article by Steve Congro
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Hurricane
December 03, 2009, 08:21:37 AMVery insightful to put it in these terms. It's so easy to get the mentality (especially because of Gainesville) that if you're not first, you lost. JAGS are a great team when you step back and look at the big picture.
While I did not renew my season tickets for this year (personal economic reasons), I am committing to renew these next year. I sure hope we keep this team...
PS - Quentin Groves is starting to play like we wanted him to play, but he is best at the 3-4 defense (which we are far from perfecting). When we drafted him, we knew he would only play about 40% of the downs. If only he won't trip himself up next time he goes for a touchdown! ;P
copperfiend
December 03, 2009, 09:05:33 AMTom Coughlin was great at selecting first round picks. But he struck out on quite a few second round picks (Larry Smith, Cordell Taylor most notabley) and the majority of his picks after round two made little to no impact on this team.
Steve
December 03, 2009, 10:41:45 AM^True, which also shows the importance of good drafting. If they had drafted better, then they wouldn't have needed all of those high priced free agents. However, the situation wasn't as bad, because the first round picks were successful.
copperfiend
December 03, 2009, 10:53:35 AMIt's also the reason the Jaguars have been somewhat successful under Jack Del Rio despite the mediocre first round picks. Mid-late round picks like Sims-Walker, Wilford, Manuwai, McCray and Scobee produced.
Jason
December 03, 2009, 12:13:23 PMThanks for the article Steve (assuming you are the author).
I don't think anyone could have said it better.
Johnny
December 03, 2009, 12:36:27 PMWell written article and I agree with it. I (like Hurricane above) didn't renew this year, only for economic purposes and plan to renew again next year. It hurt not to renew this year as I hadn't missed a home game in 6 years.
stug
December 03, 2009, 01:12:46 PMIf you can afford to attend just one game this season, I urge everyone to buy tickets to the Dec. 17 game against the Colts.
JaxNative68
December 03, 2009, 01:53:42 PMHopefully they can gel as a team and start all playing together on the same page every game. Let's leave the Seahawk and 49er's games in the past!
fsu813
December 03, 2009, 04:39:39 PM"If you can afford to attend just one game this season, I urge everyone to buy tickets to the Dec. 17 game against the Colts."
I have 6 , count 'em, 6 tickets to the game!
sandyshoes
December 03, 2009, 07:05:28 PMJust reported on WJXT, speculation Jags may move to L.A. - they are going to build a new stadium contingent upon securing a team. No comment from Jags camp, L.A. very smug saying 50/50 chance "a team" will sign.
Wacca Pilatka
December 03, 2009, 07:44:12 PMThis video came out the other day and was on Jaguars This Week. The smug L.A. person is affiliated with Majestic Realty, whose CEO is the individual who would be majority owner of an L.A. team.
While not to dismiss the seriousness of this situation at all, remember:
1) There's no reason to conclude the team they're referring to is definitely Jacksonville
2) The person making the statement has a vested interest in the situation and may be using puffery to sway opinion
I am very frightened of how many in Jacksonville seem to be taking the endless L.A. talk to heart and acting as though the team is a goner and no one should buy tickets, or inventing the idea that the city never supported the team, or just turning on the team altogether and constantly maligning it. This is exactly what the L.A. people want.
Do not give them what they want.
fsu813
December 03, 2009, 10:54:04 PMditto
SunKing
December 04, 2009, 07:54:51 AMgood series but is there information available on the web regarding approximate team economics? I know that Forbes generally ranks teams by value each year but the reality is that these franchises are ongoing businesses. Jacksonville has low attendance lately but also has a pretty sweet stadium lease. That is what folks need to look at more than just overall attendance. Tampa had the worst team in the league in every category for decades, the Jaguars program isnt even close. why are they still there? Because they made money. The LA thing still makes me laugh. You would have to be truly desperate or insane to commit to some bozo with an NFL franchise that had not even begun to turn dirt. What is the lease on that thing anyway? At least more than $50 million a year. What do the Jaguars pay? $4-5 something like that. LA lost two teams. Ask any sports writer based there. They dont care. If anyone goes there it will be the Rams coming back home. Buy your tickets though because we have a great franchise when I look around the rest of the league. Small town, big city, the economics are just different.
Hurricane
December 04, 2009, 09:41:55 AMI bought my tix for the Colts game. Even though I didn't renew the season tix this year, I have been able to go to 5 out of the 10. The only thing is that I am buying off the resale market (Stub Hub), therefore it really isn't providing additional ticket sales for the team... Go JAGS!
copperfiend
December 04, 2009, 09:45:37 AMSpeculation that has been around for years is breaking news? I wonder if WJXT saw the ESPN article from Adam Schefter.
mtraininjax
December 04, 2009, 10:35:24 AMThere are 10 other teams that "may sign", I still think it will be either Buffalo or Minnesota, neither team is getting the cities to build them a new stadium, and Jax just gave away 5 million a year to the Jags for improvements.
As long as the city, Peyton's only accomplishment in my eyes, plays nice and invests in the team, I think they will stay. Of course a better playing team would be nice too, that would sell more seats.
Wacca Pilatka
December 04, 2009, 10:46:14 AMI wish Peyton had gotten involved sooner, though I am thankful he is showing some leadership now. This problem and its magnitude was obvious since the spring. I was writing letters back then to various Jacksonville leaders in the hopes that something like the TD Jax revival would happen before the season.
Yes, better performance always sells more seats, but we have to get to the point where the Jaguars sell out as a matter of course regardless of whether they have a rough season. All teams go through cycles. Many teams will still sell out even if their teams have a rough year or two. Not all markets can accomplish this, but more than half can, and we have a small margin for error since we're a small market that's perpetually under a media microscope. And for the record, the Jaguars are vastly improved from last year and are playoff contenders, with a young roster clearly on the upswing. Sometimes I wonder how many people realize that.
SunKing
December 04, 2009, 12:28:42 PMI wish they could go to a public ownership model a la Green Bay. Weaver would still remain majority owner but give the fans opportunity to buy into the team. League doesnt allow though. It sure makes sense in a small market
urbanjacksonville
December 04, 2009, 04:50:46 PMHi everyone! Gil Samson, Urban Jacksonville Jaguars writer, posted an amazing article today. Please read if you love Jacksonville and the Jaguars: http://www.urbanjacksonville.info/2009/12/04/we-must-protect-this-house/
Wacca Pilatka
December 04, 2009, 04:55:18 PMThat article is a thing of beauty, and I hope it will change hearts and minds. Although I'm mystified at the commentor who stated that she hates the Jaguars because they anger and embarrass her.
Special K
December 04, 2009, 06:01:25 PMSteve, I'm Really enjoying your articles in this series so far. I'm learning a lot. They're written really well and in a way that makes it easy for a newbie like me to understand. Can't wait to read the next one.
Steve
December 04, 2009, 06:14:06 PMRight now the team is losing money. Don't think we want to push for this now
SunKing
December 05, 2009, 12:05:07 PMReally? Not so. The Jaguars are about right in the middle of the league in operating income (making money). Only 2 teams lose money right now, which is hard to do in the NFL, given a guaranteed revenue share of about $150 million. Teams lose money today either by having expensive stadium leases or paying on worthless contracts, which is the case with Seattle and Oakland.
Jacksonville actually leads half the league including Carolina, Green Bay, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Dallas! in MAKING MONEY. Which is why I say not all is as it appears.
I would much rather own interest in the team and never even receive a dividend (but retain value should the team be sold) rather than pay for a PSL.
BridgeTroll
December 05, 2009, 12:07:55 PMCan you provide a link to back this up?
Steve
December 05, 2009, 12:24:42 PM^Not Possible. The only team that actually opens its books is the Green Bay Packers, because it is owned by the City of Green Bay. Forbes does an estimate, but they are not considered all that accurate.
BridgeTroll
December 05, 2009, 12:42:18 PMThat is what I thought... Thanks Steve.
SunKing
December 06, 2009, 06:00:39 PMWell if Forbes is "not accurate" then figure it out for yourselves. Green Bay is the only team with open books but there is no mystery to what a team's major revenues or expenses are, players and coaches salaries, stadium lease, travel expenses.
Revenues are easier to understand: guaranteed revenue share plus Jaguars average about $5 million a game in ticket and game day sales, then the rest is sponsorships.
There are actually other sources besides Forbes, but believe what you want, the numbers are right in front of your nose.
BridgeTroll
December 07, 2009, 07:34:03 AMJust asking you to post a link to the source you cite... pretty simple.
heights unknown
December 07, 2009, 09:35:54 AMThis video came out the other day and was on Jaguars This Week. The smug L.A. person is affiliated with Majestic Realty, whose CEO is the individual who would be majority owner of an L.A. team.
While not to dismiss the seriousness of this situation at all, remember:
1) There's no reason to conclude the team they're referring to is definitely Jacksonville
2) The person making the statement has a vested interest in the situation and may be using puffery to sway opinion
I am very frightened of how many in Jacksonville seem to be taking the endless L.A. talk to heart and acting as though the team is a goner and no one should buy tickets, or inventing the idea that the city never supported the team, or just turning on the team altogether and constantly maligning it. This is exactly what the L.A. people want.
Do not give them what they want.
Good assertion "Wacca;" seems to be some type of psychology their casting out there. If we bite, then we'll get hooked and caught.
Heights Unknown
heights unknown
December 07, 2009, 09:42:25 AMJaguars are looking better the last two weeks. Looks like they might make the playoffs as a wildcard if they keep winning. Let's keep supporting them even if it's by radio.
Heights Unknown
Wacca Pilatka
December 07, 2009, 10:25:38 AMThis is an ongoing debate on the Jaguar message board. Based on estimates from the Packers' books (as Steve mentioned) and other known or intuitive revenue and expense items, Forbes estimated the Jaguars made $28 million in 2007 and $20 million in 2006. They were ranked right in the middle of the pack in revenues per Forbes. However, Vic Ketchman on the Jaguar website has implied repeatedly that Forbes was way off and the Jaguars were significantly less profitable than that, and Wayne Weaver said in a T-U interview in the summer that the Jaguars will lose money this year.
JaxNative68
December 07, 2009, 10:30:21 AMwho isn't losing money this year?
Lucasjj
December 07, 2009, 12:45:29 PMI don't see how Jacksonville could be profitable this year. Yesterday's game set a franshise record for the lowest attended game. It was even worse looking since there were only 36,000 people in the stands. I believe they have set that record more than once this season.
http://www.news4jax.com/sports/21881723/detail.html
buckethead
December 07, 2009, 01:50:19 PMOn the field, Jags compare... oh.... let's see here...
Somewheres around...heck, I dunno, I'll just throw this out there...
7 and 5.
I'll take it.